“....if I can change, and you can change, everybody can change!”
November 25, 2015 1:23 PM Subscribe
NATO-Russia Tensions Rise After Turkey Downs Jet [The New York Times]
Related:
- Navigator of Downed Russian Plane Says He Was Given No Warning. [The New York Times]
Two big powers supporting different factions in the Syrian civil war clashed with each other on Tuesday when Turkish fighter jets shot down a Russian warplane that Turkey said had strayed into its airspace. The tensions immediately took on Cold War overtones when Russia rejected Turkey’s claim and Ankara responded by asking for an emergency NATO meeting, eliciting more Russian anger and ridicule. After the meeting, the NATO secretary general, Jens Stoltenberg, called for “calm and de-escalation” and said the allies “stand in solidarity with Turkey.”
Related:
- Navigator of Downed Russian Plane Says He Was Given No Warning. [The New York Times]
The Russian navigator who parachuted out of a warplane shot down by Turkey said on Wednesday that there had been no warning before a missile slammed into the aircraft, giving him and the pilot no time to dodge the missile. The navigator, Capt. Konstantin V. Murakhtin, was rescued by special forces troops who followed his radio beacon and negotiated his release from the insurgents who were holding him.- Nato and UN seek calm over Turkish downing of Russian jet. [The Guardian]
In signs of deepening divisions between the two countries, Russia warned its citizens not to go on holiday in Turkey and its defence ministry cut off contacts with its Turkish counterpart. On Tuesday night, its general staff confirmed that one of the pilots of the downed jet had been killed and a marine died while on a rescue mission. The fate of the jet’s second pilot was unclear.- Russian and Turkish ministers to meet over downed jet. [CNBC.com]
Speaking before a meeting with King Abdullah II of Jordan in Sochi, Putin said: “Our military is doing heroic work against terrorism … but the loss today is a stab in the back, carried out by the accomplices of terrorists. I can’t describe it in any other way. We will never tolerate such crimes like the one committed today.”
The foreign ministers of Russia and Turkey have spoken to each other about Tuesday's downing of the Russian military jet, deciding to meet in the coming days to discuss the situation on Turkey's border with Syria. Describing the shooting down of the jet Tuesday as a "planned act", Russia's Sergey Lavrov said the incident could not go without reaction, according to news wires.- Turkey’s downing of a Russian jet was a confrontation waiting to happen. [The Economist]
The shooting down by Turkey of a Russian Su-24 fighter-bomber on Tuesday morning—the first time a NATO member has admitted bringing down a Russian warplane since the end of the cold war—was in many ways a confrontation waiting to happen. Syria has become a messy battleground with outside powers supporting different proxy factions and, increasingly, intervening directly in the country’s civil war. Russian, American and French air forces have all bombed targets in Syria with worryingly little co-ordination. Turkey, in particular, has repeatedly cautioned Russia to keep its planes on the Syrian side of the border, after an intrusion by a Russian jet in October. While Russia is supporting the regime of President Bashar al-Assad, Turkey has made little secret of wanting to see him gone and of supporting Sunni rebel groups.- Russian warplane shot down at Syria-Turkey border. [RT.com] [Live Updates]
In its assessment of the downing of a Russian jet by Turkey, NATO has “once again failed the exam on objectivity,” Aleksandr Grushko, Russia's permanent representative to NATO, said.“We saw what we’ve seen too often in recent years: everything that NATO countries do is right and can somehow be understood [and] justified; NATO believes that [it] is the supreme judge in all matters of security," Grushko told TV channel Rossiya 1.- Turkey shot down a Russian warplane. Why it would happen and why it matters, explained. [VOX.com]
When you ask Russia experts why Moscow would send its warplanes buzzing NATO airspace in Europe, they'll often point out that Russia's military is much weaker than America's and NATO's — and Moscow knows it. And indeed this military imbalance is something you hear Russian defense officials bring up constantly; this fact of their relative weakness is world-shaping for them. So one way Russia has dealt with its relative weakness is by being more provocative, by demonstrating its willingness to raise the stakes and toe ever closer up to the line of outright conflict. The intended message of such flights isn't that Russia will deliberately start a war with the West — it won't — but rather that it is more willing to take on risk, so if the West doesn't want the headache it should just back down.
17 seconds for an F-16 to notice a plane and acquire a missile lock?
The Russians are a bunch of cocks looking for a fight but Turkey's math doesn't nearly add up for anything except an ambush.
posted by Talez at 1:39 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
The Russians are a bunch of cocks looking for a fight but Turkey's math doesn't nearly add up for anything except an ambush.
posted by Talez at 1:39 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
Thank you for this post but also for waiting for the story to develop a little bit more instead of getting it on the front page as fast as possible. Now to delve into the links…
posted by the antecedent of that pronoun at 1:44 PM on November 25, 2015 [7 favorites]
posted by the antecedent of that pronoun at 1:44 PM on November 25, 2015 [7 favorites]
I grew up during the tail end of the 'Cold War' era and listening to the news the last few months has me feeling as if history has simply repeated itself. Vladimir Putin is just taking a page from history. I really hope that this doesn't continue to escalate.
posted by Fizz at 1:44 PM on November 25, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by Fizz at 1:44 PM on November 25, 2015 [2 favorites]
This reads to me as someone actually calling Russia's bluff on provocative actions. They've made a habit of going just as far as they think they can without repercussions; they misjudged the line this time.
posted by Ferreous at 1:45 PM on November 25, 2015 [16 favorites]
posted by Ferreous at 1:45 PM on November 25, 2015 [16 favorites]
Is Putin right to label Turkey 'accomplices of terrorists'?
posted by nubs at 1:48 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by nubs at 1:48 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
This business will get out of control. It will get out of control, and we'll be lucky to live through it.
Where is Fred Thompson when we need him?
Oh... Right.
posted by entropicamericana at 1:49 PM on November 25, 2015 [4 favorites]
Where is Fred Thompson when we need him?
Oh... Right.
posted by entropicamericana at 1:49 PM on November 25, 2015 [4 favorites]
It is unclear to me if the claims that Ankara has been buying ISIS/Daesh conflict oil are true or mere propaganda. nubs's Guardian link says it was some Turkish businessman doing the buying, who is exactly who I'd want doing the deed if I were a government wanting plausible deniability of misdeeds in a war zone.
posted by infinitewindow at 1:50 PM on November 25, 2015
posted by infinitewindow at 1:50 PM on November 25, 2015
infinitewindow, this link gets deeper into the Turkish-Daesh ties as well as some others.
posted by nubs at 1:55 PM on November 25, 2015 [3 favorites]
posted by nubs at 1:55 PM on November 25, 2015 [3 favorites]
(and I should be clear, I'm grabbing links from the Paris thread where some of this situation started being discussed yesterday).
posted by nubs at 2:00 PM on November 25, 2015
posted by nubs at 2:00 PM on November 25, 2015
This is clearly a time for England to start grabbing supply centers in Scandinavia.
posted by Etrigan at 2:03 PM on November 25, 2015 [26 favorites]
posted by Etrigan at 2:03 PM on November 25, 2015 [26 favorites]
Well, the Juggernaut opening appears to be off the table at the least.
posted by nubs at 2:12 PM on November 25, 2015 [7 favorites]
posted by nubs at 2:12 PM on November 25, 2015 [7 favorites]
I am having the grimmest chuckles ever at these Diplo jokes. You are my people.
posted by cortex at 2:14 PM on November 25, 2015 [21 favorites]
posted by cortex at 2:14 PM on November 25, 2015 [21 favorites]
Turkish-Daesh ties
I think it might have more to do with Turkish ties with the Turkmens the Russians have actually been bombing.
posted by Segundus at 2:18 PM on November 25, 2015 [5 favorites]
I think it might have more to do with Turkish ties with the Turkmens the Russians have actually been bombing.
posted by Segundus at 2:18 PM on November 25, 2015 [5 favorites]
Moscow is warning it will strike back after the downing of a Russian plane. But is it willing to jeopardize its own economy to do so? [somewhat paywalled]. All about energy interdependence and energy as a weapon, the article claims "the Islamic State earns anywhere from $250,000 to $1.5 million a day from selling oil and refined products like diesel and gasoline, both inside Syria and across the border in Turkey," citing this source: Taking Stock Of ISIS Oil.
posted by Kabanos at 2:22 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Kabanos at 2:22 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
The more I delve into it the clearer it is that Turkey's interests are completely out of whack with NATO's. I have been reading a lot lately so I am not sure where the links came from, but it seems that the Grey Wolves are a group of Turkish ultra-nationalist paramilitaries that were directly involved in the downing incident. Yes these are Turkmen areas, but the actual boots on the ground are (plausibly deniable) Turks. So no wonder Turkey wants to discourage Russian bombing there.
I do not think these recent Turkish actions will discourage Russian bombing there.
posted by Meatbomb at 2:22 PM on November 25, 2015 [3 favorites]
I do not think these recent Turkish actions will discourage Russian bombing there.
posted by Meatbomb at 2:22 PM on November 25, 2015 [3 favorites]
I think it might have more to do with Turkish ties with the Turkmens the Russians have actually been bombing.
I'm sure there's some amount of pan-Turkic solidarity, but it's mostly that ISIS/Daesh spends a lot of its time fighting Kurds, which is without a doubt the single fastest way into the current Turkish government's heart. It wasn't sloppiness or ignorance that led them to leave their entire southern border undefended while thousands of wannabe soldiers poured over it.
posted by Copronymus at 2:29 PM on November 25, 2015 [6 favorites]
I'm sure there's some amount of pan-Turkic solidarity, but it's mostly that ISIS/Daesh spends a lot of its time fighting Kurds, which is without a doubt the single fastest way into the current Turkish government's heart. It wasn't sloppiness or ignorance that led them to leave their entire southern border undefended while thousands of wannabe soldiers poured over it.
posted by Copronymus at 2:29 PM on November 25, 2015 [6 favorites]
But is it willing to jeopardize its own economy to do so?
I'm no expert but isn't Russia a major oil exporter? Wouldn't they see a nice bump in revenues if the middle east fell into a big old civil war slowing down their exports?
I'm pretty cynical about all this stuff - the whole Syria gas pipelines from Qatar in lieu of Russian gas to Europe makes a lot of sense if you think like I do. With OPEC a full year into their new supply quotas inflicting substantial damage on the entire oil complex it wouldn't surprise me if the goal (or at least an okay side effect) is Russia justs wants to make a giant mess over there.
posted by H. Roark at 2:30 PM on November 25, 2015
I'm no expert but isn't Russia a major oil exporter? Wouldn't they see a nice bump in revenues if the middle east fell into a big old civil war slowing down their exports?
I'm pretty cynical about all this stuff - the whole Syria gas pipelines from Qatar in lieu of Russian gas to Europe makes a lot of sense if you think like I do. With OPEC a full year into their new supply quotas inflicting substantial damage on the entire oil complex it wouldn't surprise me if the goal (or at least an okay side effect) is Russia justs wants to make a giant mess over there.
posted by H. Roark at 2:30 PM on November 25, 2015
There's been some speculation that this was a calculated strategy on Turkey's part to trigger a NATO reaction and halt any plans for a joint Russo - NATO bombing campaign. Turkey still had hopes to oust Assad before the entrance of the Russians, and now they are just trying to hold onto any influence they've gained within Syrian territory and halt strikes on friendly positions. Or so the theory goes anyway. One of a dozen theories really.
posted by the_querulous_night at 2:30 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by the_querulous_night at 2:30 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
Some historical context.
Russian television is giving its viewers a refresher too, in case they've forgotten.
posted by Kabanos at 2:32 PM on November 25, 2015 [2 favorites]
Russian television is giving its viewers a refresher too, in case they've forgotten.
posted by Kabanos at 2:32 PM on November 25, 2015 [2 favorites]
I think we're about to learn that Turkey only has a basic NATO membership that does not cover all situations. Should have sprung for the Premier Package.
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 2:42 PM on November 25, 2015 [57 favorites]
posted by RobotVoodooPower at 2:42 PM on November 25, 2015 [57 favorites]
I thought this was a pretty good article about Erdogan's motives and thinking.
Also, the guy just won an election whipping up fear and security concerns; the threat of international confrontation only plays into his hands domestically. His strategy ain't broke, so he ain't gonna fix it.
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 2:44 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
Also, the guy just won an election whipping up fear and security concerns; the threat of international confrontation only plays into his hands domestically. His strategy ain't broke, so he ain't gonna fix it.
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 2:44 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
Since US foreign policy has been pretty much reduced to don't do stupid shit, I think it's reasonable to assume NATO members doing stupid shit (hint: shooting down Russian fighters qualifies as monumentally stupid on a global basis, no matter how much it makes sense to Erdogan) is not part of the deal.
posted by zachlipton at 2:48 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by zachlipton at 2:48 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
The sad/crazy thing is that the finger of Turkish land that was overflown was only about two miles wide.
Assuming the jet was flying at combat speeds (say, 600+ mph or greater), they crossed it in the blink of an eye.
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 2:52 PM on November 25, 2015 [5 favorites]
Assuming the jet was flying at combat speeds (say, 600+ mph or greater), they crossed it in the blink of an eye.
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 2:52 PM on November 25, 2015 [5 favorites]
I wonder if all the member countries have provisional status with NATO. Putin's agents bringing a radiological weapon into the UK to deploy against one of his enemies, for instance, was basically an act of war on a NATO country, and one that was met with official indifference, more or less.
posted by a lungful of dragon at 2:52 PM on November 25, 2015 [5 favorites]
posted by a lungful of dragon at 2:52 PM on November 25, 2015 [5 favorites]
Russia said it was going in to bomb daesh, then bombed Assad's enemies instead, inflicting a lot of collateral damage, so I have read. Turkey is an example of how independent a secular government can be in the Middle East. You could hear shooting from the ground presumably at the Russian aircraft, while it streaked across the video, on fire. I found that brazen except the Russians were there to bomb those people on the ground.
In a more alert and oriented scenario, Europe, Russia, and the US, would break diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, close the embassies, until they deal with their evil pets. Recent, insightful articles on the Times have pointed out daesh's goals are Saudi ideals enforced across the Muslim communities of the world.
It is not often someone effectively delivers this kind of message to Putin. We should all realize, that urgent telegram was for Russia and the west. (In case you thought it couldn't get any stranger, Colombian mercenaries are providing "infrastructure security" in Yemen, on Qatar's dime.) The powers of the Middle East have plenty of money to go Byzantine all on their own. Our relative reserve in the face of this is not nearly reserved enough to my way of thinking. We have no friends there. Not at all.
posted by Oyéah at 2:53 PM on November 25, 2015 [3 favorites]
In a more alert and oriented scenario, Europe, Russia, and the US, would break diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, close the embassies, until they deal with their evil pets. Recent, insightful articles on the Times have pointed out daesh's goals are Saudi ideals enforced across the Muslim communities of the world.
It is not often someone effectively delivers this kind of message to Putin. We should all realize, that urgent telegram was for Russia and the west. (In case you thought it couldn't get any stranger, Colombian mercenaries are providing "infrastructure security" in Yemen, on Qatar's dime.) The powers of the Middle East have plenty of money to go Byzantine all on their own. Our relative reserve in the face of this is not nearly reserved enough to my way of thinking. We have no friends there. Not at all.
posted by Oyéah at 2:53 PM on November 25, 2015 [3 favorites]
and now they are just trying to hold onto any influence they've gained within Syrian territory and halt strikes on friendly positions.
In the past 24 hrs, a Turkish humanitarian convoy was allegedly hit by either Russian or Syrian airstrikes in northern Syria, killing 7 civilians and wounding 20. Meanwhile Turkey has revived its plans for a buffer zone in northern Syria, and is supposedly now sending extra tanks to the border by train. So both sides having a bit of trouble with the notion of deescalation.
Julia Ioffe sums it up as the Czar vs. the Sultan:
In the past 24 hrs, a Turkish humanitarian convoy was allegedly hit by either Russian or Syrian airstrikes in northern Syria, killing 7 civilians and wounding 20. Meanwhile Turkey has revived its plans for a buffer zone in northern Syria, and is supposedly now sending extra tanks to the border by train. So both sides having a bit of trouble with the notion of deescalation.
Julia Ioffe sums it up as the Czar vs. the Sultan:
… The conflict over the Russian plane in Turkish airspace ... is not about the plane, or the airspace, or the Islamic State, or even NATO. It is about two empires, the Russian and the Ottoman, that continue to violently disintegrate to this day, decades after they have formally ceased to exist. Look at Ukraine and Moldova, look at Syria and Iraq. These are the death throes of empire, the long tails of their legacies, shaking themselves out as the rest of the world tries to contain and smooth the convulsions of transition.posted by Kabanos at 2:53 PM on November 25, 2015 [36 favorites]
And it is about two men, Vladimir Putin and Recep Tayyip Erdogan, who, without much irony, see themselves as heirs to the two mantles of these two long-gone empires. They, in turn, have revived those empires in the minds of their subjects, constantly dangling before their eyes the holograms of greatness past. It is no surprise, then, that, as the number of actors and the potential for conflict has grown in Syria, that the first flash of it would happen between two men who feel so keenly their countries’ phantom limbs.
In a more alert and oriented scenario, Europe, Russia, and the US, would break diplomatic relations with Saudi Arabia, close the embassies, until they deal with their evil pets.
In a different world, we would have followed this by initiating a Manhattan Project to end oil dependency once and for all.
posted by Apocryphon at 2:59 PM on November 25, 2015 [27 favorites]
In a different world, we would have followed this by initiating a Manhattan Project to end oil dependency once and for all.
posted by Apocryphon at 2:59 PM on November 25, 2015 [27 favorites]
Assuming the jet was flying at combat speeds (say, 600+ mph or greater), they crossed it in the blink of an eye.
It was more than one jet, at least according to Turkey.
posted by ultraviolet catastrophe at 3:00 PM on November 25, 2015
It was more than one jet, at least according to Turkey.
posted by ultraviolet catastrophe at 3:00 PM on November 25, 2015
I think we're about to learn that Turkey only has a basic NATO membership that does not cover all situations. Should have sprung for the Premier Package.
No, Turkey is a member in good standing with full privileges. They've even got a US Air Force base with nuclear weapons.
posted by Kevin Street at 3:03 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
No, Turkey is a member in good standing with full privileges. They've even got a US Air Force base with nuclear weapons.
posted by Kevin Street at 3:03 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
It is unwise to fail in alliance with Russia, in spite of some of the more unpleasant aspects of bullying and territory. I imagine Putin is up to here with fundamentalism and its results in some of Russia's more volitile areas. I don't want the gains of the post cold war lost. Shooting at parachuting airmen that is brutal.
posted by Oyéah at 3:06 PM on November 25, 2015
posted by Oyéah at 3:06 PM on November 25, 2015
"Frack"
- popular swear word in TV and reality.
posted by clavdivs at 3:10 PM on November 25, 2015 [2 favorites]
- popular swear word in TV and reality.
posted by clavdivs at 3:10 PM on November 25, 2015 [2 favorites]
How many members of the Bush administration do we have to drop off at The Hague to make this all go away? 1? 5? All of them?
posted by RonButNotStupid at 3:13 PM on November 25, 2015 [4 favorites]
posted by RonButNotStupid at 3:13 PM on November 25, 2015 [4 favorites]
I'd imagine there were quick response teams in Sweden, Norway, Great Britain, Spain, Poland, Japan, et cetera saying 'about time!' in response to this. When you engage in provocative behaviour, sooner or later someone is going to respond. Will a big Bear bomber in the Baltic be next?
posted by Bee'sWing at 3:15 PM on November 25, 2015
posted by Bee'sWing at 3:15 PM on November 25, 2015
To clarify my earlier comment, this isn't World War Three in the making. Nobody wants that, including Turkey and Russia. But it does complicate Russia's range of possible responses.
posted by Kevin Street at 3:16 PM on November 25, 2015
posted by Kevin Street at 3:16 PM on November 25, 2015
I wonder if all the member countries have provisional status with NATO. Putin's agents bringing a radiological weapon into the UK to deploy against one of his enemies, for instance, was basically an act of war on a NATO country, and one that was met with official indifference, more or less.
It's called pragmatism. You don't start trillion dollar wars involving most of the developed world over petty prideful bullshit. You summon the ambassador, tell him not to do it again and continue on in a state of mutual disdain.
I prefer NATO take the World of Wacraft attitude: You pulled it? You tank it you idiot fucking hunter.
posted by Talez at 3:16 PM on November 25, 2015 [13 favorites]
It's called pragmatism. You don't start trillion dollar wars involving most of the developed world over petty prideful bullshit. You summon the ambassador, tell him not to do it again and continue on in a state of mutual disdain.
I prefer NATO take the World of Wacraft attitude: You pulled it? You tank it you idiot fucking hunter.
posted by Talez at 3:16 PM on November 25, 2015 [13 favorites]
Reports of Archduke Ferdinand's death due to Russian Fighter debris remain unsubstantiated.
posted by The Power Nap at 3:17 PM on November 25, 2015 [6 favorites]
posted by The Power Nap at 3:17 PM on November 25, 2015 [6 favorites]
This blog post from earlier this year about Russian Su-24's using consumer-grade Garmin GPS systems has been making the rounds on Twitter.
Other commentaries on Russian navigation.
posted by Kabanos at 3:21 PM on November 25, 2015 [3 favorites]
Other commentaries on Russian navigation.
posted by Kabanos at 3:21 PM on November 25, 2015 [3 favorites]
We have no friends there. Not at all.
Welp ... We still have Israel.
*ducks*
posted by ZenMasterThis at 3:22 PM on November 25, 2015 [3 favorites]
Welp ... We still have Israel.
*ducks*
posted by ZenMasterThis at 3:22 PM on November 25, 2015 [3 favorites]
The sad/crazy thing is that the finger of Turkish land that was overflown was only about two miles wide.
While being both crazy and sad... in what world is it ok for a foreign power to be conducting offensive operations anywhere near your border without some prior discussion and coordination? (Yes I know Putin is Assad's buddy. Birds of a feather...)
The same world, I guess, where NATO and others turn a blind eye to Saudi funding of extremists and Turkish facilitation of ISIS oil sales.
Syria really is a shitshow.
posted by Artful Codger at 3:30 PM on November 25, 2015 [12 favorites]
While being both crazy and sad... in what world is it ok for a foreign power to be conducting offensive operations anywhere near your border without some prior discussion and coordination? (Yes I know Putin is Assad's buddy. Birds of a feather...)
The same world, I guess, where NATO and others turn a blind eye to Saudi funding of extremists and Turkish facilitation of ISIS oil sales.
Syria really is a shitshow.
posted by Artful Codger at 3:30 PM on November 25, 2015 [12 favorites]
This blog post from earlier this year about Russian Su-24's using consumer-grade Garmin GPS systems has been making the rounds on Twitter.
Other commentaries on Russian navigation.
Slight derail: I heard this mentioned on NPR earlier this morning and my jaw dropped. I was actually considering posting on AskMe about older military equipment and the various lengths and life of such vehicles, weapons, devices, etc. Is this normal or is this just something that a military that is not receiving up to date funding has to deal with?
posted by Fizz at 3:34 PM on November 25, 2015
Other commentaries on Russian navigation.
Slight derail: I heard this mentioned on NPR earlier this morning and my jaw dropped. I was actually considering posting on AskMe about older military equipment and the various lengths and life of such vehicles, weapons, devices, etc. Is this normal or is this just something that a military that is not receiving up to date funding has to deal with?
posted by Fizz at 3:34 PM on November 25, 2015
in what world is it ok for a foreign power to be conducting offensive operations anywhere near your border without some prior discussion and coordination? (Yes I know Putin is Assad's buddy. Birds of a feather...)
So Greece should feel obliged to scramble its forces and shoot down Turkish fighters buzzing its airspace all year?
posted by Talez at 3:34 PM on November 25, 2015 [4 favorites]
So Greece should feel obliged to scramble its forces and shoot down Turkish fighters buzzing its airspace all year?
posted by Talez at 3:34 PM on November 25, 2015 [4 favorites]
Is this normal or is this just something that a military that is not receiving up to date funding has to deal with?
Maybe it's more of a commentary on how freaking good consumer grade GPS/Glonass receivers have become.
posted by Artful Codger at 3:44 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
Maybe it's more of a commentary on how freaking good consumer grade GPS/Glonass receivers have become.
posted by Artful Codger at 3:44 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
One Russian party is now bringing up Armenian genocide denial.
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 3:45 PM on November 25, 2015
posted by Noisy Pink Bubbles at 3:45 PM on November 25, 2015
Speaking of Greece..
Sputnik - According to Russian Foreign Ministry, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias expressed solidarity with Russia's assessments of Turkey's moves as unfriendly and running counter to the fight against the Islamic State.
I have to imagine Greece wants no part in this mess, but kind of funny seeing them being made part of the story.
posted by rosswald at 4:00 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
Sputnik - According to Russian Foreign Ministry, Greek Foreign Minister Nikos Kotzias expressed solidarity with Russia's assessments of Turkey's moves as unfriendly and running counter to the fight against the Islamic State.
I have to imagine Greece wants no part in this mess, but kind of funny seeing them being made part of the story.
posted by rosswald at 4:00 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
The more National Bolshevik elements in Russia also advocate a pan-Orthodox solidarity with potential allies/clients west of Russia. This usually includes Cyrillic-using Slavic countries like Serbia and Bulgaria, but there have been noises made about Greece during its financial crisis and stand-off with EU creditors.
posted by acb at 4:13 PM on November 25, 2015
posted by acb at 4:13 PM on November 25, 2015
I'd love to see an (much better quality) update to that "who's friends with who" chart of the middle east.
posted by sammyo at 4:13 PM on November 25, 2015 [3 favorites]
posted by sammyo at 4:13 PM on November 25, 2015 [3 favorites]
It is unwise to fail in alliance with Russia,
One of history's classic blunders!
"the Islamic State earns anywhere from $250,000 to $1.5 million a day from selling oil and refined products like diesel and gasoline,
Earns on the black market. Even after bombing(s), they’re still earning in the ballpark of million a day in black market oil sales (discounting various allies, crime syndicates, who are also earning at that level).
That's in contrast to the $40-odd million a year in kidnapping/ransom, and donations which is chump change but they also have other revenue streams, farms, etc. And are very good at not spending anything, since, y'know, fanaticism.
The big poke in the eye is selling oil for (again, thumbnail sketch) $40 a barrel, which really kicks Russia in the ass when they have to sell/refine it legitimately and prices fall. And Gazprom pissed off the Turks with the oil pipeline, yeah.
So the Turks see Russia's pissed because of the oil thing, so they put more pressure on lowering prices so Russia will go along with the pipeline.
And while Turkey may be legitimately trying to stem the flow of smuggled oil in (crude) and out (refined) of the country, but they're having a time of it whether or not they tacitly support the outfits doing the smuggling...
“Turkey thought they could control it all,” said one senior western official. “But it got out of their hands. It has come back to bite them in the heart of Ankara [a double suicide bombing in October that was claimed by Isis] and it will haunt them for a long time.”
Thus, bombing. Break stuff. Because what else ya gonna do? Not destabilize/stabilize energy prices by grabbing your enemy's orbs? (Fun/ironic Fact: this is pretty much the main tactic in Turkish Oil Wrestling)
*sigh*
Of course, if Obama's plan to go easy on Iran pays off and Iran brings oil production back up that'll kick Putin right in the pelotas. Which makes one wonder why the GOP was so opposed to the Iran deal given Lybia, Ukraine, the Crimea, and y'know, Snowden
No bombing involved maybe?
"..this isn't World War Three in the making. Nobody wants that, including Turkey and Russia."
You'd think so, but here we are. I mean, are there energy/money interests masked by political interests using religious extremists who are willing to kill everyone to skew the game theory thing so it appears there are irrational actors? Or are the religious nuts willing to risk death even if it means they have to look like pawns?
They want to buy nuclear material. Smugglers are willing to sell nuclear material. Politicians are willing to bomb whatever (and ignore or weaken institutions like the IAEA) for headlines and to support their country's corporations.
I think if we're not actively looking to prevent WWIII we could easily slide into it unconsciously and wonder how the hell we got there. It's how WWI happened. All seemingly logical decisions. Support your allies. Resolve disputes over territory. Get your population all facing the same direction. Use tried and true tactics in war. And one guy gets assassinated and everything goes straight to hell.
posted by Smedleyman at 4:20 PM on November 25, 2015 [15 favorites]
One of history's classic blunders!
"the Islamic State earns anywhere from $250,000 to $1.5 million a day from selling oil and refined products like diesel and gasoline,
Earns on the black market. Even after bombing(s), they’re still earning in the ballpark of million a day in black market oil sales (discounting various allies, crime syndicates, who are also earning at that level).
That's in contrast to the $40-odd million a year in kidnapping/ransom, and donations which is chump change but they also have other revenue streams, farms, etc. And are very good at not spending anything, since, y'know, fanaticism.
The big poke in the eye is selling oil for (again, thumbnail sketch) $40 a barrel, which really kicks Russia in the ass when they have to sell/refine it legitimately and prices fall. And Gazprom pissed off the Turks with the oil pipeline, yeah.
So the Turks see Russia's pissed because of the oil thing, so they put more pressure on lowering prices so Russia will go along with the pipeline.
And while Turkey may be legitimately trying to stem the flow of smuggled oil in (crude) and out (refined) of the country, but they're having a time of it whether or not they tacitly support the outfits doing the smuggling...
“Turkey thought they could control it all,” said one senior western official. “But it got out of their hands. It has come back to bite them in the heart of Ankara [a double suicide bombing in October that was claimed by Isis] and it will haunt them for a long time.”
Thus, bombing. Break stuff. Because what else ya gonna do? Not destabilize/stabilize energy prices by grabbing your enemy's orbs? (Fun/ironic Fact: this is pretty much the main tactic in Turkish Oil Wrestling)
*sigh*
Of course, if Obama's plan to go easy on Iran pays off and Iran brings oil production back up that'll kick Putin right in the pelotas. Which makes one wonder why the GOP was so opposed to the Iran deal given Lybia, Ukraine, the Crimea, and y'know, Snowden
No bombing involved maybe?
"..this isn't World War Three in the making. Nobody wants that, including Turkey and Russia."
You'd think so, but here we are. I mean, are there energy/money interests masked by political interests using religious extremists who are willing to kill everyone to skew the game theory thing so it appears there are irrational actors? Or are the religious nuts willing to risk death even if it means they have to look like pawns?
They want to buy nuclear material. Smugglers are willing to sell nuclear material. Politicians are willing to bomb whatever (and ignore or weaken institutions like the IAEA) for headlines and to support their country's corporations.
I think if we're not actively looking to prevent WWIII we could easily slide into it unconsciously and wonder how the hell we got there. It's how WWI happened. All seemingly logical decisions. Support your allies. Resolve disputes over territory. Get your population all facing the same direction. Use tried and true tactics in war. And one guy gets assassinated and everything goes straight to hell.
posted by Smedleyman at 4:20 PM on November 25, 2015 [15 favorites]
I'd love to see an (much better quality) update to that "who's friends with who" chart of the middle east.
it would be like one of those tacky paintings they sell in the mall, where the wolf or eagle looks like one thing, and then another, and then another as you walk by it
it's too screwed up for us to be involved in - our so called allies are supporting our enemies, our international rivals are bombing what used to be our enemies, and ... i can't analyze it all, but look what israel seems to be doing about all this
they're staying the hell out of it
we could learn something from that
posted by pyramid termite at 4:21 PM on November 25, 2015 [4 favorites]
it would be like one of those tacky paintings they sell in the mall, where the wolf or eagle looks like one thing, and then another, and then another as you walk by it
it's too screwed up for us to be involved in - our so called allies are supporting our enemies, our international rivals are bombing what used to be our enemies, and ... i can't analyze it all, but look what israel seems to be doing about all this
they're staying the hell out of it
we could learn something from that
posted by pyramid termite at 4:21 PM on November 25, 2015 [4 favorites]
I was actually considering posting on AskMe about older military equipment and the various lengths and life of such vehicles, weapons, devices, etc. Is this normal or is this just something that a military that is not receiving up to date funding has to deal with?
It's difficult to answer the question of whether it's "normal" or what it's really indicative of. Consider that the Su-24 was first put into service in 1970, and that even the U.S. is still flying B-52s, some of which are old enough to have been literally flown by the current pilots' grandfathers. Some military hardware, with enough upgrades and maintenance, are pretty much immortal. Unless they get shot down by Turkish F-16s. Which, by the way, Turkey started fielding in 1987.
But what changes rapidly is electronics. So, depending on your prioritizations, it might make better sense to pour your money into maintaining the older hardware so the jet can fly, and then skimp on the electronics, because your mission doesn't need fancy electronic hardware.
Consider how these aircraft get used. Russia lacks the full-spectrum military stance of the United States, so they're more reliant on human forward observers than, say, JSTARS aircraft standing back behind the battle area controlling every movement. And Russia has, ahem, less of a need to care about precision attacks that minimize civilian casualties.
So, they're approach is rather old-school, if-it-ain't-broke-don't-fix-it.
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 4:30 PM on November 25, 2015 [2 favorites]
It's difficult to answer the question of whether it's "normal" or what it's really indicative of. Consider that the Su-24 was first put into service in 1970, and that even the U.S. is still flying B-52s, some of which are old enough to have been literally flown by the current pilots' grandfathers. Some military hardware, with enough upgrades and maintenance, are pretty much immortal. Unless they get shot down by Turkish F-16s. Which, by the way, Turkey started fielding in 1987.
But what changes rapidly is electronics. So, depending on your prioritizations, it might make better sense to pour your money into maintaining the older hardware so the jet can fly, and then skimp on the electronics, because your mission doesn't need fancy electronic hardware.
Consider how these aircraft get used. Russia lacks the full-spectrum military stance of the United States, so they're more reliant on human forward observers than, say, JSTARS aircraft standing back behind the battle area controlling every movement. And Russia has, ahem, less of a need to care about precision attacks that minimize civilian casualties.
So, they're approach is rather old-school, if-it-ain't-broke-don't-fix-it.
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 4:30 PM on November 25, 2015 [2 favorites]
Tension escalates as Russia deploys missile cruiser in Mediterranean for aerial cover
That's the missile cruiser "Moskva" (presumably Москва́). Additionally:
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:31 PM on November 25, 2015
That's the missile cruiser "Moskva" (presumably Москва́). Additionally:
[...] It has also been reported that the Russian battleship Yamal passed through the Dardanelles en route to the Mediterranean minutes after Turkish F-16s downed the Russian aircraft.I understand Yamal to be an amphibious warship, the sort designed to deploy troops rapidly. Maybe it was already underway? If not, I can't believe that a warship can be made ready for action in minutes, still less if it needs to be loaded with troops or materiel.
posted by Joe in Australia at 4:31 PM on November 25, 2015
Nobody's got any sort of clean exit from this without a political settlement. It's got nowhere else to go that will work even slightly for anyone. That means the major players aligning on an agreed outcome - which will please none of them - because nobody involved (excepting possibly the Saudis) wants Daesh to do anything other than shrivel and die. That penumbra of terrorism is touching everyone.
If you think the US's best role in this is to pull away and let the buggers fight it out, then try and imagine what possible outcome from that would be best. Because I can't see one that's even remotely good news.
posted by Devonian at 4:35 PM on November 25, 2015
If you think the US's best role in this is to pull away and let the buggers fight it out, then try and imagine what possible outcome from that would be best. Because I can't see one that's even remotely good news.
posted by Devonian at 4:35 PM on November 25, 2015
it's not a question of what's the best outcome if we pull out - it's a question of what could be the worst one if we stay in
posted by pyramid termite at 4:40 PM on November 25, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by pyramid termite at 4:40 PM on November 25, 2015 [2 favorites]
...Russian battleship...
Does any navy in the world operate a battleship? I'd suspect they just mean 'naval vessel'.
posted by pompomtom at 4:41 PM on November 25, 2015
Does any navy in the world operate a battleship? I'd suspect they just mean 'naval vessel'.
posted by pompomtom at 4:41 PM on November 25, 2015
Saudi Arabia, an ISIS That Has Made It
posted by bukvich at 4:44 PM on November 25, 2015 [13 favorites]
posted by bukvich at 4:44 PM on November 25, 2015 [13 favorites]
Honestly, at this level, you might as well have a new round of above-the-table neocolonialism. Saudi Arabia, Gulf monarchies, Turkey, Iran, you guys want your turn at imperializing? Fine, have a new Berlin Conference and draw out new spheres of influence between the regional powers. Focus on ending the funding for actual sides, and switch to humanitarian support instead. China wants its turn as a global hegemon and revenge for its citizen who was executed there recently? They can head up a United Nations peacekeeping mission with their SCO buddy Russia. The U.S. should press for an autonomous Kurdish zone- we owe that people that, at least, after screwing them over for the last decades. And Israel gets a fellow secular non-Arab allied state. Or not. Point is, at least then these countries will be honest about what they really want in the region. Then you can set up no-fly zones and humanitarian initiatives and blue helmets, instead of more foreign military advisors and volunteer fighters.
One of the biggest troubles that the Bush administration did was discrediting the U.N. as a credible forum where international consensus can be reached, and multilateral action can be achieved. But it needn't be like that. Better to jaw-jaw than to war-war. And better to be open about one's goals in the region, than continue this facade of propping up factions and leading to more rogue actors committing terrorist acts.
posted by Apocryphon at 4:59 PM on November 25, 2015 [7 favorites]
One of the biggest troubles that the Bush administration did was discrediting the U.N. as a credible forum where international consensus can be reached, and multilateral action can be achieved. But it needn't be like that. Better to jaw-jaw than to war-war. And better to be open about one's goals in the region, than continue this facade of propping up factions and leading to more rogue actors committing terrorist acts.
posted by Apocryphon at 4:59 PM on November 25, 2015 [7 favorites]
Maybe it's more of a commentary on how freaking good consumer grade GPS/Glonass receivers have become.
Yeah, I have no knowledge of the situation, but to my laymen eyes there are a lot of cases where military hardware just seems like junk from a previous era, or work that was just phoned in by a low-bid manufacturer that would have little ability to compete on quality in the consumer sector.
I know that meeting various mil-spec requirements and certifications delays and restricts contractors in ways that pro-sumer gear is free of, but it also seems that a lot of those requirements are fairly institutional and prosumer gear often ends up being a safer bet to get a job done.
I dunno, it seems like back in the 80s military equipment seemed really advanced compared to what people could buy, but since the tech explosion, with everything moving so fast, now the most advanced, mass-tested, and iterated designs are consumer gear. By the time the military version is ruggardized and through all the procurement processes, it's ancient tech that couldn't cut it in the consumer sphere.
posted by anonymisc at 5:07 PM on November 25, 2015 [2 favorites]
Yeah, I have no knowledge of the situation, but to my laymen eyes there are a lot of cases where military hardware just seems like junk from a previous era, or work that was just phoned in by a low-bid manufacturer that would have little ability to compete on quality in the consumer sector.
I know that meeting various mil-spec requirements and certifications delays and restricts contractors in ways that pro-sumer gear is free of, but it also seems that a lot of those requirements are fairly institutional and prosumer gear often ends up being a safer bet to get a job done.
I dunno, it seems like back in the 80s military equipment seemed really advanced compared to what people could buy, but since the tech explosion, with everything moving so fast, now the most advanced, mass-tested, and iterated designs are consumer gear. By the time the military version is ruggardized and through all the procurement processes, it's ancient tech that couldn't cut it in the consumer sphere.
posted by anonymisc at 5:07 PM on November 25, 2015 [2 favorites]
I think America (and contra the Trudeau government, my own nation) has a role to play in the Syrian conflict, and whatever you want to call the cluster**** in Iraq. If there's one thing ISIS/Daesh has made abundantly clear, it's that they won't stay in one place. They're everyone's enemy. We should be doing our best to get rid of them.
The sad but brutal truth is that the outcome of the Syrian civil war isn't that important on a geopolitical basis for the West. We need it to end quickly, but it isn't that important to us if Assad or some other faction wins. What does matter is if Daesh or al-Nusra or some other proto Caliphate group manages to carve a permanent foothold in the region, because experience has shown (over and over) that they will use their territory as a base for terrorist strikes upon the West.
So we need to be there, not to make sure the right guy wins. (Because there is no right guy.) But to make sure the wrong guys don't win.
posted by Kevin Street at 5:09 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
The sad but brutal truth is that the outcome of the Syrian civil war isn't that important on a geopolitical basis for the West. We need it to end quickly, but it isn't that important to us if Assad or some other faction wins. What does matter is if Daesh or al-Nusra or some other proto Caliphate group manages to carve a permanent foothold in the region, because experience has shown (over and over) that they will use their territory as a base for terrorist strikes upon the West.
So we need to be there, not to make sure the right guy wins. (Because there is no right guy.) But to make sure the wrong guys don't win.
posted by Kevin Street at 5:09 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
My elderly neighbor had a friend who lived in Saudi for a while. Every Saturday morning everyone must come out to see the punishments. He said that if you don't come out to watch, the stonings, the behandings, the whippings; then the following Saturday, is your turn for a whippin'. This sounds a lot like what the girl defectors from daesh had to say about their role in punishments.
I am tired of the gross side of the oil business. I advocate some swift, nouveaux, isolationism. Like yesterday, and not one drop of oil exports from the US.
Hey, and what about the Hezbollah guys helping rescue the downed Russian flight team? Maybe Russia not only needs a new friends list, but new maps of the area. I think I'll rotate my Turkey now, we were talking about Turkey weren't we? And White Russians, dude.
posted by Oyéah at 5:11 PM on November 25, 2015
I am tired of the gross side of the oil business. I advocate some swift, nouveaux, isolationism. Like yesterday, and not one drop of oil exports from the US.
Hey, and what about the Hezbollah guys helping rescue the downed Russian flight team? Maybe Russia not only needs a new friends list, but new maps of the area. I think I'll rotate my Turkey now, we were talking about Turkey weren't we? And White Russians, dude.
posted by Oyéah at 5:11 PM on November 25, 2015
Nobody wanted World War I, either. If you read any of the leadup to the war books, it just became one thing rolling after another rolling after another. Read up on the assassination of the Archduke, which is this hilarious story of a bunch of bumbling anarchists that fuck up everything until the Archduke happens to mosey down the wrong street where one of the anarchists happened to stop for lunch. The entire impression I get from reading the literature is everyone was waiting for someone else to blink first, only nobody blinked.
In fact, the "Oh, war is impossible, these countries all need each other for economic reason" was the major argument for why war wouldn't happen. Someone would surely blink first.
Only they didn't.
posted by Ghostride The Whip at 5:16 PM on November 25, 2015 [14 favorites]
In fact, the "Oh, war is impossible, these countries all need each other for economic reason" was the major argument for why war wouldn't happen. Someone would surely blink first.
Only they didn't.
posted by Ghostride The Whip at 5:16 PM on November 25, 2015 [14 favorites]
I'd love to see an (much better quality) update to that "who's friends with who" chart of the middle east.
This one still seems pretty accurate to me.
posted by effbot at 5:26 PM on November 25, 2015
This one still seems pretty accurate to me.
posted by effbot at 5:26 PM on November 25, 2015
Does any navy in the world operate a battleship?
If there is, it's Russia.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 5:31 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
If there is, it's Russia.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 5:31 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
This blog post from earlier this year about Russian Su-24's using consumer-grade Garmin GPS systems has been making the rounds on Twitter.
Bear in mind that Garmin originally sold to airplanes as a retrofitting. They still have an aeronautics division operating out of New Century Airport. I don't know how well they cope at fighter jet speeds, but it wouldn't be the worst idea to throw in a Garmin. Especially when you consider the wildfires a year or two back where it was discovered Russia straight up didn't have enough fire trucks in the entire country to fight the fire.
posted by pwnguin at 5:34 PM on November 25, 2015
Bear in mind that Garmin originally sold to airplanes as a retrofitting. They still have an aeronautics division operating out of New Century Airport. I don't know how well they cope at fighter jet speeds, but it wouldn't be the worst idea to throw in a Garmin. Especially when you consider the wildfires a year or two back where it was discovered Russia straight up didn't have enough fire trucks in the entire country to fight the fire.
posted by pwnguin at 5:34 PM on November 25, 2015
If there is, it's Russia.
From my (tiny) research it seems the last navy to maintain one was the US.
posted by pompomtom at 5:39 PM on November 25, 2015
From my (tiny) research it seems the last navy to maintain one was the US.
posted by pompomtom at 5:39 PM on November 25, 2015
The Yamal isn't a battleship, it's a 112.5 m landing ship.
posted by Monday, stony Monday at 5:41 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Monday, stony Monday at 5:41 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
Right. I can't think of a reason Russia would want to send one tank or motor rifle company to Tartus though. My guess is it's loaded with 500 tons of cargo.
posted by ob1quixote at 5:44 PM on November 25, 2015
posted by ob1quixote at 5:44 PM on November 25, 2015
I think the timing must be coincidental, but seriously: this is how wars happen.
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:48 PM on November 25, 2015
posted by Joe in Australia at 5:48 PM on November 25, 2015
this is how wars happen.
Yes and no. You can certainly point to numerous instances where wars start over "minor" incidents.
But the incidents are always the stalking horse for something else. WW1 kicked off because the parties involved really thought they had compelling interests and the ability to win.
What is Russia's interest in shooting at Turkey? They're just trying to preserve Assad and keep their naval base in the Med.
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 5:53 PM on November 25, 2015 [2 favorites]
Yes and no. You can certainly point to numerous instances where wars start over "minor" incidents.
But the incidents are always the stalking horse for something else. WW1 kicked off because the parties involved really thought they had compelling interests and the ability to win.
What is Russia's interest in shooting at Turkey? They're just trying to preserve Assad and keep their naval base in the Med.
posted by Cool Papa Bell at 5:53 PM on November 25, 2015 [2 favorites]
One of the under the radar causes of WW1 was a technological mismatch. The major powers had proto 20th century armies, for the most part, but were saddled with 19th century logistics. There were no computers, so if you needed to meticulously generate reams of documentation to support your army's movement, which you did need to do, it had to be done by hand. Because of this and related reasons, the mobilization plans for transitioning from a peacetime regular army to a wartime army swollen with reservists and conscripts were extraordinarily complex and the means to modify them on the fly simply didn't exist. A large part of the tragedy of that war is the way in which it ratcheted itself into existence, starting out as regional bullying by Austria-Hungary and quickly exploding into the irrevocable execution of the German Schlieffen plan whose aim was to immediately invade France through neutral Belgium at the outbreak of fighting.
While there are superficial similarities to today, I think it's this key point which illustrates how much more extreme circumstances were in 1914. We know that the nuclear powers are aiming at one another along party lines in case of nuclear war, but we also know that France etc. can take conventional military action without needing to invade a neutral 3rd party and widening the conflict. Because of this, I think all parties will ultimately find room to back down without excessively losing face in front of their home constituencies.
posted by feloniousmonk at 5:55 PM on November 25, 2015 [5 favorites]
While there are superficial similarities to today, I think it's this key point which illustrates how much more extreme circumstances were in 1914. We know that the nuclear powers are aiming at one another along party lines in case of nuclear war, but we also know that France etc. can take conventional military action without needing to invade a neutral 3rd party and widening the conflict. Because of this, I think all parties will ultimately find room to back down without excessively losing face in front of their home constituencies.
posted by feloniousmonk at 5:55 PM on November 25, 2015 [5 favorites]
I think the timing must be coincidental, but seriously: this is how wars happen.
There's already a war happening. It's just that the sides are still in process.
posted by Thorzdad at 5:57 PM on November 25, 2015 [3 favorites]
There's already a war happening. It's just that the sides are still in process.
posted by Thorzdad at 5:57 PM on November 25, 2015 [3 favorites]
From my (tiny) research it seems the last navy to maintain one was the US.
The Kirov basically counts.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 5:59 PM on November 25, 2015 [2 favorites]
The Kirov basically counts.
posted by Ray Walston, Luck Dragon at 5:59 PM on November 25, 2015 [2 favorites]
Just one way this might play out : Turkey's Islamist AKP keeps up the brinksmanship, but Turkey's military says no, resulting in a coup, possibly based upon suggestions by the CIA. After the coup, the Islamist AKP is discredited for seeking war with Russia, resulting in the border being closed and the oil money no longer flowing.
There are a bunch of missing parts to that rosy story though : What happens to the Kurds? Does the U.S. get more involved? etc. It'd be lovely for Americans if Obama could just let Russia deal with the whole ISIS and Syria situation, granting Putin proxy control over that oil, but I'd wager Assad would make life suck for the Kurds, especially with Russian backing.
Any chance Russia could be talked into partitioning Syria into a smaller Syria and a new Kurdistan, backing both sides against ISIS and Turkey, while the rest of the world just complains about how Putin sucks but this time they cannot find an excuse to fight?
posted by jeffburdges at 6:19 PM on November 25, 2015 [5 favorites]
There are a bunch of missing parts to that rosy story though : What happens to the Kurds? Does the U.S. get more involved? etc. It'd be lovely for Americans if Obama could just let Russia deal with the whole ISIS and Syria situation, granting Putin proxy control over that oil, but I'd wager Assad would make life suck for the Kurds, especially with Russian backing.
Any chance Russia could be talked into partitioning Syria into a smaller Syria and a new Kurdistan, backing both sides against ISIS and Turkey, while the rest of the world just complains about how Putin sucks but this time they cannot find an excuse to fight?
posted by jeffburdges at 6:19 PM on November 25, 2015 [5 favorites]
Is Putin right to label Turkey 'accomplices of terrorists'?
NATO is harbouring the Islamic State: Why France’s brave new war on ISIS is a sick joke, and an insult to the victims of the Paris attacks
posted by homunculus at 6:25 PM on November 25, 2015 [18 favorites]
NATO is harbouring the Islamic State: Why France’s brave new war on ISIS is a sick joke, and an insult to the victims of the Paris attacks
posted by homunculus at 6:25 PM on November 25, 2015 [18 favorites]
Some historical context.
If one really wants to get in the wayback machine and go back to (arguably) the most significant event that has brought us here, then consider that it could be argued that the Great Schism in 1054 and it's endless bickering and fighting was directly responsible (along with help from the Black Plague) for the fall of Constantinople in 1453, which gave the Ottoman Empire the prize of a city with amazing commercial and strategic potential that allowed them to expand further into eastern Europe which laid the foundations of a considerable number of social, political, and religious conflicts to this day. Had the city not fallen, a good number of these historical events that are being cited would not have happened. At least that's my understanding of it in broad strokes.
Of course, any musings about what would have happened if Constantinople had not fallen may be interesting, but moot, as it did fall. The resulting events weren't all negative either, as scholars and refugees from Constantinople helped kick of the European Renaissance, for example.
However, if we're going to play the "this is happening now because X happened centuries ago" game, we really should play it out all the way to back to linchpin moments like this one in 1453. The one I've presented is certainly not the only one, but it's certainly a significant one. If we don't try to play the game back as far as we can and from many different angles, we often only see part of the reason that, for example, group X hates group Y because of event Z.
It's tough because citing a small set of single events is much easier to wrap your brain around than a dizzying avalanche of events spread over centuries, millennia, or even just the last 50-75 years. Even if every citation given is as accurate and true as possible, the problem lies with figuring out if the citations have given you a real understanding of the situation, or only just enough context to agree with, or at least see merit in, the argument of the person citing them.
posted by chambers at 6:43 PM on November 25, 2015 [9 favorites]
If one really wants to get in the wayback machine and go back to (arguably) the most significant event that has brought us here, then consider that it could be argued that the Great Schism in 1054 and it's endless bickering and fighting was directly responsible (along with help from the Black Plague) for the fall of Constantinople in 1453, which gave the Ottoman Empire the prize of a city with amazing commercial and strategic potential that allowed them to expand further into eastern Europe which laid the foundations of a considerable number of social, political, and religious conflicts to this day. Had the city not fallen, a good number of these historical events that are being cited would not have happened. At least that's my understanding of it in broad strokes.
Of course, any musings about what would have happened if Constantinople had not fallen may be interesting, but moot, as it did fall. The resulting events weren't all negative either, as scholars and refugees from Constantinople helped kick of the European Renaissance, for example.
However, if we're going to play the "this is happening now because X happened centuries ago" game, we really should play it out all the way to back to linchpin moments like this one in 1453. The one I've presented is certainly not the only one, but it's certainly a significant one. If we don't try to play the game back as far as we can and from many different angles, we often only see part of the reason that, for example, group X hates group Y because of event Z.
It's tough because citing a small set of single events is much easier to wrap your brain around than a dizzying avalanche of events spread over centuries, millennia, or even just the last 50-75 years. Even if every citation given is as accurate and true as possible, the problem lies with figuring out if the citations have given you a real understanding of the situation, or only just enough context to agree with, or at least see merit in, the argument of the person citing them.
posted by chambers at 6:43 PM on November 25, 2015 [9 favorites]
Turkey's Islamist AKP keeps up the brinksmanship, but Turkey's military says no, resulting in a coup, possibly based upon suggestions by the CIA. After the coup, the Islamist AKP is discredited for seeking war with Russia, resulting in the border being closed and the oil money no longer flowing.
Interesting idea. NATO has dealt with coups within its member nations in the past, but their reactions to them seems to give the impression that while they were of serious concern, as long as that countries' government did not favor "the other side" and compromise the main function of NATO it was considered an internal political matter, at least publicly. It's also interesting that if there was a generally pro-NATO group within various parts of the Turkish government and military that was organized enough and in a position to attempt a coup, NATO's behavior in the past would actually be rather reassuring when it comes to holding power after taking it.
posted by chambers at 7:36 PM on November 25, 2015
Interesting idea. NATO has dealt with coups within its member nations in the past, but their reactions to them seems to give the impression that while they were of serious concern, as long as that countries' government did not favor "the other side" and compromise the main function of NATO it was considered an internal political matter, at least publicly. It's also interesting that if there was a generally pro-NATO group within various parts of the Turkish government and military that was organized enough and in a position to attempt a coup, NATO's behavior in the past would actually be rather reassuring when it comes to holding power after taking it.
posted by chambers at 7:36 PM on November 25, 2015
Why Crimea is so important. Has this been in the planning stages? And then Tartars cut the power lines. Interesting dynamics.
posted by Oyéah at 9:11 PM on November 25, 2015
posted by Oyéah at 9:11 PM on November 25, 2015
The Russians have historical reasons for wanting client states as buffers between them and aggressors, nevermind that we're now in the days of mutually assured destruction. Having Crimea become part of NATO crosses one of their lines in the sand.
posted by sebastienbailard at 9:40 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by sebastienbailard at 9:40 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
A coup in Turkey would be far from unprecendented and is the kind of thing that tends to happen as the government becomes more Islamist-ey. On the other hand, Erdogan remains quite popular outside of the country's high-income/education western cities (think red state/blue state, but worse). A coup would also be carried out by Turkey's military, a military that just had no problem shooting down a Russian jet.
It's also far from clear to me what the endgame would be after such a coup.
posted by zachlipton at 9:55 PM on November 25, 2015
It's also far from clear to me what the endgame would be after such a coup.
posted by zachlipton at 9:55 PM on November 25, 2015
That's quite a link, homunculus. Very disturbing.
posted by Kevin Street at 10:48 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by Kevin Street at 10:48 PM on November 25, 2015 [1 favorite]
Ain't likely we're too close to a military coup in Turkey now, but maybe if the AKP continues to backing ISIS, conflict with Russia persists, and the west cannot ignore their backing of ISIS, including Washington seriously considering cutting them off. Ain't clear the Turkish military would back down from a fight though either, especially if they thought they'd just addressed Washington's concerns. Also, ISIS bombings in Turkey won't help Erdogan's popularity either if the opposition can blame him.
posted by jeffburdges at 10:59 PM on November 25, 2015
posted by jeffburdges at 10:59 PM on November 25, 2015
Does any navy in the world operate a battleship?
Nope. ISTR one of the Latin American navies runs an old cruiser that's the last big-gun ship in service.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 11:07 PM on November 25, 2015
Nope. ISTR one of the Latin American navies runs an old cruiser that's the last big-gun ship in service.
posted by ROU_Xenophobe at 11:07 PM on November 25, 2015
A decade of advances in railgun tech and we may see ships mounting fair sized guns again! Although not, obviously, in the same fashion with giant armored battleships.
posted by Justinian at 11:12 PM on November 25, 2015
posted by Justinian at 11:12 PM on November 25, 2015
ISIS bombings in Turkey won't help Erdogan's popularity either if the opposition can blame him.Not at all. HDP has been almost entirely unsuccessful at pinning that blame on him. Daesh bombings in Turkey (Ankara and Suruç) increased Erdoğan's popularity, since A) it represents an attack on Turkey's borders, and Erdoğan promises strength and safety, and B) the bombings were targeted at the Kurds, which Daesh is fighting in Syria, but who nationalist Turks hate as well. Turks have booed through moments of silence for those bombings (as they did for Paris victims) and Turkish newscasters have agreed with call-in statements that "not all" of the bombing victims deserved their fate, because some of them were janitors instead of HDP peace protesters (who, the thinking goes, aren't really Turkish). One question I have is where CHP stands in all this: they are the more substantial counterbalance to AKP, but perhaps because of their nationalism (but Atatürk-nationalism, not AKP-style neo-Ottoman nationalism) and upper-income base, they to my knowledge have remained silent as HDP (a minority alliance of those at the edges of Turkish society) accuses AKP of having blood on their hands for those bombings.
A coup in Turkey would be far from unprecendented and is the kind of thing that tends to happen as the government becomes more IslamistNot so much anymore. The common understanding regarding a military coup, which I've been hearing for the past several years, is that such a path has been blocked by a decade of first stocking the military with Gülen supporters (Islamists and AKP's then-ally) and then subsequently purging the military (and police) of opponents to AKP after that alliance disintegrated, leaving the military cowed. We're talking hundreds of mid-level military officers and at least a thousand police arrested. So a coup is possible but I'm skeptical. If it happened it would be very, very bad for Turks—people tell me that with each coup the country lost a decade or two of economic growth.
My concern/wonder is if shooting down this jet was a play by Turkey to bring its NATO allies back closer to rally against the Russian threat. (This would of course be a maneuver that clearly fell flat on its face.) The US recently pulled its Patriot missiles from Turkey at the same time that Turkey was shooting down Russian drones and warning Russian jets about airspace incursions. Turkey is in a tough spot: until recently, both the US and Russia could be called its allies, and it has been leading the way with handling refugees and calling for Assad's ouster. But nobody followed their attempt at regional leadership, and now its interests are opposed to its allies on both sides: the US wants to prop up the Kurds (sort of, but not enough to do anything substantial) and Russia wants to prop up Assad. So where does this leave us? Same as before: with a violent multi-factional morass with every onlooking power's national interests both split within themselves and set in opposition with each other.
posted by daveliepmann at 11:48 PM on November 25, 2015 [18 favorites]
In a different world, we would have followed this by initiating a Manhattan Project to end oil dependency once and for all.
What's really sad about that is that we don't actually need a project anywhere near as intensive as that. Most of what needs to happen is withdrawal of state support for the coal and oil extraction industries. The market can do most of the rest. It's actually already doing it, even with fossil fuel subsidies in place, but the process would go much faster without them.
posted by flabdablet at 2:45 AM on November 26, 2015 [5 favorites]
What's really sad about that is that we don't actually need a project anywhere near as intensive as that. Most of what needs to happen is withdrawal of state support for the coal and oil extraction industries. The market can do most of the rest. It's actually already doing it, even with fossil fuel subsidies in place, but the process would go much faster without them.
posted by flabdablet at 2:45 AM on November 26, 2015 [5 favorites]
Does any navy in the world operate a battleship?
Nope. ISTR one of the Latin American navies runs an old cruiser that's the last big-gun ship in service.
The BAP Almirante Grau isn't a battleship - she's a cruiser that's only slightly bigger than the US Ticonderoga class.
posted by dazed_one at 5:54 AM on November 26, 2015
Nope. ISTR one of the Latin American navies runs an old cruiser that's the last big-gun ship in service.
The BAP Almirante Grau isn't a battleship - she's a cruiser that's only slightly bigger than the US Ticonderoga class.
posted by dazed_one at 5:54 AM on November 26, 2015
> Some historical context.
[...] However, if we're going to play the "this is happening now because X happened centuries ago" game, we really should play it out all the way to back to linchpin moments like this one in 1453.
Just to be clear, I certainly wasn't intending to play the "this is happening now because X happened centuries ago" game, I was just providing historical context. Every literate person in both Russia and Turkey will be thinking of that long history of mutual warfare, whereas hardly anyone in the West has heard of it.
posted by languagehat at 6:00 AM on November 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
[...] However, if we're going to play the "this is happening now because X happened centuries ago" game, we really should play it out all the way to back to linchpin moments like this one in 1453.
Just to be clear, I certainly wasn't intending to play the "this is happening now because X happened centuries ago" game, I was just providing historical context. Every literate person in both Russia and Turkey will be thinking of that long history of mutual warfare, whereas hardly anyone in the West has heard of it.
posted by languagehat at 6:00 AM on November 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
It's true, I had not heard of it, the question is, will the Turks or Russians learn anythi...I doubt it.
Nice link flabdablet. I see this plan is endorsed by ex CIA and other oil folks going back to Carter. It's quite intriguing.
posted by clavdivs at 6:17 AM on November 26, 2015
Nice link flabdablet. I see this plan is endorsed by ex CIA and other oil folks going back to Carter. It's quite intriguing.
posted by clavdivs at 6:17 AM on November 26, 2015
The Kemalists were liquidated after 2007. Gen. Basbug is out of jail now, but I don't think the army is coming out of the barracks to protect Turkish secularism ever again. All because certain people in Brussels and Washington didn't understand what Kemalism was for.
posted by ob1quixote at 7:49 AM on November 26, 2015 [3 favorites]
posted by ob1quixote at 7:49 AM on November 26, 2015 [3 favorites]
Helluva read, homunculus. Thanks.
posted by five fresh fish at 8:01 AM on November 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by five fresh fish at 8:01 AM on November 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
Live interactive map of goings on in Syria.
posted by Kabanos at 9:56 AM on November 26, 2015 [5 favorites]
posted by Kabanos at 9:56 AM on November 26, 2015 [5 favorites]
Tensions Between Ankara, D.C. Over Notion That Turkey Needs Pardon
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:01 PM on November 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:01 PM on November 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
Not satire this time:
Russia to boycott Turkish goods; 'We'll buy from Israel instead'
Russia has been very good at capitalising on events that it's had a hand in. I'm going to presume that Russia has been acting deliberately: its provocation was intended to create a Turkish reaction. That reaction gave Russia an ostensible justification for increasing its role in Syria, particularly by introducing anti-aircraft weapon systems. Those systems are mostly useless for combating rebels (of any description), but they are a great obstacle to Western involvement in Syria. So it's worked out really well for Russia.
Israel is very worried by this, for two reasons. The first is that rebels control Israel's border with former-Syria, and Israel wants to be able to keep an eye on them and respond as necessary. The other is that Hezbollah, Iran's proxy, has been using the conflict as cover to move rockets into southern Lebanon. Israel has attacked these convoys a number of times, at least four or five that hit the headlines. Russia's defense system might interfere with this ... unless Russia and Israel make nice. So Russia is using a carrot&stick approach. The carrot is increased trade (agriculture, tourism); the stick is the threat of Soviet-protected enemies on Israel's borders.
I said it was an interesting list of countries: Iran makes sense, since it's effectively Russia's chief regional ally. Israel makes sense, as part of the strategy I mentioned. Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan can be explained on the basis of historical (USSR-era) ties and the fact that they're agricultural exporters. But Morocco? Well, look at the map. As you go south and west from Syria along the Mediterranean, you pass Lebanon, Israel, Egypt, Libya, Algeria, and then Morocco. Lebanon is fractious, and Russia can presumably get whatever cooperation it needs from Hezbollah anyway. Israel we discussed. Egypt is historically cooperative with Russia, but Russia is leaning on Egypt anyway because of the recent terrorist attack. Libya ... is Libya. Algeria is a Russian ally already. And then comes Morocco. So Russia is working to make the southern Mediterranean a Russian basin. Not a bad piece of work, if all it costs is a jet and a couple of pilots.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:33 PM on November 26, 2015 [3 favorites]
Russia to boycott Turkish goods; 'We'll buy from Israel instead'
Russia ups retaliatory action after downing of jet by Turkey; looks to ban Turkish agricultural imports amid other 'restrictive measures.'An interesting list of countries.
[...]
"Turkish vegetables account for 20 percent of the total Russian imports of vegetables. Import of vegetables, tomatoes in the first place, will be substituted with those from Iran, Morocco, Israel, Azerbaijan, Uzbekistan," [Agriculture Minister Alexander Tkachev] told Russian media.
Russia has been very good at capitalising on events that it's had a hand in. I'm going to presume that Russia has been acting deliberately: its provocation was intended to create a Turkish reaction. That reaction gave Russia an ostensible justification for increasing its role in Syria, particularly by introducing anti-aircraft weapon systems. Those systems are mostly useless for combating rebels (of any description), but they are a great obstacle to Western involvement in Syria. So it's worked out really well for Russia.
Israel is very worried by this, for two reasons. The first is that rebels control Israel's border with former-Syria, and Israel wants to be able to keep an eye on them and respond as necessary. The other is that Hezbollah, Iran's proxy, has been using the conflict as cover to move rockets into southern Lebanon. Israel has attacked these convoys a number of times, at least four or five that hit the headlines. Russia's defense system might interfere with this ... unless Russia and Israel make nice. So Russia is using a carrot&stick approach. The carrot is increased trade (agriculture, tourism); the stick is the threat of Soviet-protected enemies on Israel's borders.
I said it was an interesting list of countries: Iran makes sense, since it's effectively Russia's chief regional ally. Israel makes sense, as part of the strategy I mentioned. Azerbaijan and Uzbekistan can be explained on the basis of historical (USSR-era) ties and the fact that they're agricultural exporters. But Morocco? Well, look at the map. As you go south and west from Syria along the Mediterranean, you pass Lebanon, Israel, Egypt, Libya, Algeria, and then Morocco. Lebanon is fractious, and Russia can presumably get whatever cooperation it needs from Hezbollah anyway. Israel we discussed. Egypt is historically cooperative with Russia, but Russia is leaning on Egypt anyway because of the recent terrorist attack. Libya ... is Libya. Algeria is a Russian ally already. And then comes Morocco. So Russia is working to make the southern Mediterranean a Russian basin. Not a bad piece of work, if all it costs is a jet and a couple of pilots.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:33 PM on November 26, 2015 [3 favorites]
From the Nafeez Ahmed article linked by homunculus up thread:
Under cover of fighting ISIS, Turkey has largely used the opportunity to bomb the Kurdish forces of the Democratic Union Party (YPG) in Syria and Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey and Iraq. Yet those forces are widely recognized to be the most effective fighting ISIS on the ground.
posted by bukvich at 2:47 PM on November 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
Under cover of fighting ISIS, Turkey has largely used the opportunity to bomb the Kurdish forces of the Democratic Union Party (YPG) in Syria and Kurdistan Workers Party (PKK) in Turkey and Iraq. Yet those forces are widely recognized to be the most effective fighting ISIS on the ground.
posted by bukvich at 2:47 PM on November 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
Oh, I should have added: Morocco is also the site of the southern Pillar of Hercules; the point where Africa gets closest to Europe.1 So a Russian port in Morocco could be fewer than ten miles away from mainland Europe: it would command the entrance to the Mediterranean; it would have line-of-sight to the rumored SIGINT base in Gibraltar; it would also be adjacent to many submarine cables from the Middle East, Asia, and Western Africa. So it's a very strategic place indeed.
1In fact, Morocco is technically adjacent to Europe, as Spain has some exclaves on its coast, but that's not really important.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:55 PM on November 26, 2015 [3 favorites]
1In fact, Morocco is technically adjacent to Europe, as Spain has some exclaves on its coast, but that's not really important.
posted by Joe in Australia at 2:55 PM on November 26, 2015 [3 favorites]
Kabanos, thank you for posting that great map.
Why is Israel bombing SAA positions near Mount Qasioum?
posted by atchafalaya at 2:57 PM on November 26, 2015
Why is Israel bombing SAA positions near Mount Qasioum?
posted by atchafalaya at 2:57 PM on November 26, 2015
Why is Israel bombing SAA positions near Mount Qasioum?
The SAA, Hezbollah and Iran are basically joined at the hip and share intelligence along with Iranian produced and/or procured weapons. Usually they're looking to destroy weapons in transit to Hezbollah but taking a free swipe at some of their biggest adversaries while they're otherwise engaged would be mighty tempting as well.
posted by Talez at 7:42 PM on November 26, 2015
The SAA, Hezbollah and Iran are basically joined at the hip and share intelligence along with Iranian produced and/or procured weapons. Usually they're looking to destroy weapons in transit to Hezbollah but taking a free swipe at some of their biggest adversaries while they're otherwise engaged would be mighty tempting as well.
posted by Talez at 7:42 PM on November 26, 2015
So a Russian port in Morocco could be fewer than ten miles away from mainland Europe
If it were located at that actual point, which it would not be.
posted by Meatbomb at 7:47 PM on November 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
If it were located at that actual point, which it would not be.
posted by Meatbomb at 7:47 PM on November 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
Soviet-protected enemies on Israel's borders.
You lost me there. Ain't been no soviets for nigh on a quarter century.
I'm also getting more than a little tired of hearing talking heads in the media referring to modern Russia as the USSR or the "Soviets". It is tiresome and trite.
posted by fimbulvetr at 8:03 PM on November 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
You lost me there. Ain't been no soviets for nigh on a quarter century.
I'm also getting more than a little tired of hearing talking heads in the media referring to modern Russia as the USSR or the "Soviets". It is tiresome and trite.
posted by fimbulvetr at 8:03 PM on November 26, 2015 [2 favorites]
Amusingly appropriate flag for this discussion. lol
posted by jeffburdges at 8:12 PM on November 26, 2015
posted by jeffburdges at 8:12 PM on November 26, 2015
Reuters:
posted by daveliepmann at 10:00 PM on November 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
Two prominent Turkish journalists were arrested on Thursday on charges of assisting terrorists, CNN Turk said, after they published footage that purported to show the state intelligence agency helping send weapons to Syria.The Hurriyet:
“What difference would it make whether the trucks contained weapons or not?” [Erdoğan] asked...
Erdoğan claimed the trucks were set to deliver humanitarian aid to Bayırbucak Turkmens and that the journalists were complicit in “sabotaging” this aid merely to harm the image of himself and the Justice and Development Party (AKP) government.A more substantial story from May in Today's Zaman gives background on the weapons-trucks story.
posted by daveliepmann at 10:00 PM on November 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
You lost me there. Ain't been no soviets for nigh on a quarter century.
You're right, I misspoke.
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:02 PM on November 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
You're right, I misspoke.
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:02 PM on November 26, 2015 [1 favorite]
Jeez : Drone operators refer to children as “fun-size terrorists” and liken killing them to “cutting the grass before it grows too long,”
posted by jeffburdges at 11:10 PM on November 26, 2015 [3 favorites]
posted by jeffburdges at 11:10 PM on November 26, 2015 [3 favorites]
“Putin says to keep cooperating with U.S.-led coalition over Syria,” Denis Pinchuk and Elizabeth Pineau, Reuters, 26 November 2015
posted by ob1quixote at 1:47 AM on November 27, 2015
posted by ob1quixote at 1:47 AM on November 27, 2015
The guardian is also covering the jailed journalists: Turkish journalists charged over claim that secret services armed Syrian rebels.
posted by klausness at 2:37 AM on November 27, 2015
posted by klausness at 2:37 AM on November 27, 2015
The prosecutors who charged the MIT officers and the journos who broke the story have been arrested and charged with espionage. Erdogan is a dipshit of extreme proportions and it beggars belief that we have even cordial relations with him.
posted by longbaugh at 3:02 AM on November 27, 2015
posted by longbaugh at 3:02 AM on November 27, 2015
This Reuters link from May is comedy gold/horrific in how blatent MIT and Erdogan carry out their "Deep State" activities.
I did a lot of reading about Operation Gladio/Deep State/Ergenekon etc a few years back and might be a bit out of date - still fascinating/terrifying regardless. Turkey is deeply fucked up.
posted by longbaugh at 3:06 AM on November 27, 2015
I did a lot of reading about Operation Gladio/Deep State/Ergenekon etc a few years back and might be a bit out of date - still fascinating/terrifying regardless. Turkey is deeply fucked up.
posted by longbaugh at 3:06 AM on November 27, 2015
Yes, Erdoğan is an unpleasant character, but hardly the only one with whom the US has cordial relations. Saudi Arabia does much more than Turkey to support terrorism (and it isn't even nominally democratic), but they're still a major US ally.
posted by klausness at 4:14 AM on November 27, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by klausness at 4:14 AM on November 27, 2015 [1 favorite]
Drone operators refer to children as “fun-size terrorists” and liken killing them to “cutting the grass before it grows too long,”
PRIVATE JOKER: How can you shoot women or children?
DOOR GUNNER: Easy! Ya just don't lead 'em so much! Ain't war hell?
Someone needs to tell the drone program folks that this wasn't an instructional video.
posted by Justinian at 4:39 AM on November 27, 2015
PRIVATE JOKER: How can you shoot women or children?
DOOR GUNNER: Easy! Ya just don't lead 'em so much! Ain't war hell?
Someone needs to tell the drone program folks that this wasn't an instructional video.
posted by Justinian at 4:39 AM on November 27, 2015
In their open letter to Obama, the former drone pilots made a similar point, writing that during their service they “came to the realization that the innocent civilians we were killing only fueled the feelings of hatred that ignited terrorism and groups like ISIS,” going on to describe the program as “one of the most devastating driving forces for terrorism and destabilization around the world.”The thing I really, really wish I understood is how this point can fail to be blatantly obvious to anybody making decisions about these things.
Closest I've got is positing an almost complete failure of empathy. If you conceive of terrorists and the people they live amongst as some kind of mysterious abstraction rather than as people more like you than not, it might be a little harder to grasp how they'd respond when attacked by foreign robots.
Would any American respond to having their sister's wedding blown up by a robot attack from, say, China - accidentally or not, no way of telling - by thinking "well golly, those folks clearly have the right of it, I'd better start behaving the way they say they want me to"?
posted by flabdablet at 5:28 AM on November 27, 2015 [4 favorites]
The thing I really, really wish I understood is how this point can fail to be blatantly obvious to anybody making decisions about these things.
It is easy to understand if you go with the explanation that it is blatantly obvious and that all the blowback is fully intentional. The guys driving this probably got those engraved zippo lighters from Nam in their souvenir box that say: KILLING IS MY BUSINESS AND BUSINESS IS GOOD.
posted by bukvich at 6:08 AM on November 27, 2015 [1 favorite]
It is easy to understand if you go with the explanation that it is blatantly obvious and that all the blowback is fully intentional. The guys driving this probably got those engraved zippo lighters from Nam in their souvenir box that say: KILLING IS MY BUSINESS AND BUSINESS IS GOOD.
posted by bukvich at 6:08 AM on November 27, 2015 [1 favorite]
Meanwhile in the UK the 'austerity' government is announcing an increase of spook staff to the tune of 1,900 employees and trying to push through a Parliamentary motion to increase UK involvement in the bombing of Syria*.
I have to wonder how the spooks are supposed to help, when intelligence seems to be ignored and policy is presented as if we have no information on what is going on despite the number of drones flying over the area at all times. I have to wonder how much it has cost to kill the vicious stooge 'Jihadi John', considering how long it took them to get him. Obviously, the extra judicial killing went against the wishes of his victims. If he was on the run from ISIL, it seems that his death may not have been a blow to the organisation.
*Does anyone know where the '28,000 bombs dropped on Syria by the allies' figure comes from?
posted by asok at 6:15 AM on November 27, 2015
I have to wonder how the spooks are supposed to help, when intelligence seems to be ignored and policy is presented as if we have no information on what is going on despite the number of drones flying over the area at all times. I have to wonder how much it has cost to kill the vicious stooge 'Jihadi John', considering how long it took them to get him. Obviously, the extra judicial killing went against the wishes of his victims. If he was on the run from ISIL, it seems that his death may not have been a blow to the organisation.
*Does anyone know where the '28,000 bombs dropped on Syria by the allies' figure comes from?
posted by asok at 6:15 AM on November 27, 2015
"Russia raiding Turkish firms and sending imports back" —Al Jazeera
Both sides are demonstrating behavior patterns common in ape dominance rituals.
posted by daveliepmann at 6:37 AM on November 27, 2015
Both sides are demonstrating behavior patterns common in ape dominance rituals.
posted by daveliepmann at 6:37 AM on November 27, 2015
Asok, not sure about the 28,000 bombs you're referencing, but the number of strikes, sorties, targets destroyed, weapons released*, etc. are listed here at the U.S. Dept. of Defense site for Operation Inherent Resolve.
* 16,592 as of 10/31. Click Airpower summary in the lower right.
posted by chris24 at 6:53 AM on November 27, 2015
* 16,592 as of 10/31. Click Airpower summary in the lower right.
posted by chris24 at 6:53 AM on November 27, 2015
Oops, the current total is 28,000. I had an old version of the PDF open. Upon refreshing, it does show the 28,000. Anyway, all the numbers are there.
posted by chris24 at 7:01 AM on November 27, 2015
posted by chris24 at 7:01 AM on November 27, 2015
Aha, thanks. Hm, I wonder if the Russians publish that kind of information for their part.
posted by asok at 7:16 AM on November 27, 2015
posted by asok at 7:16 AM on November 27, 2015
Also: this ain't Syria related and it ain't ISIS related but it is war on terror related and you know it's important news because the Pentagon released it after everybody went home for the holiday on Wednesday night:
U.S. general: Human error led to Doctors Without Borders strike.
posted by bukvich at 11:28 AM on November 27, 2015 [3 favorites]
U.S. general: Human error led to Doctors Without Borders strike.
posted by bukvich at 11:28 AM on November 27, 2015 [3 favorites]
The thing I really, really wish I understood is how this point can fail to be blatantly obvious to anybody making decisions about these things.
Closest I've got is positing an almost complete failure of empathy. If you conceive of terrorists and the people they live amongst as some kind of mysterious abstraction rather than as people more like you than not, it might be a little harder to grasp how they'd respond when attacked by foreign robots.
That'a pretty much it. The attraction of aerial bombing and drones is that they involve killing from a distance, with no personal risk for the aggressor, and reduce the people being killed to abstractions. There haven't been any major terrorist attacks in America since 9/11, and many people credit that to the effectiveness of the drone program. Kill them over there so they don't kill us over here.
But the danger of making murder into a technological process and victims into abstractions is that it normalizes a state of perpetual war (for the side with the drones, anyway) and makes it impossible for the war to ever stop. If you keep killing them over there, they're really motivated to kill you over here...
posted by Kevin Street at 12:44 PM on November 27, 2015 [1 favorite]
Closest I've got is positing an almost complete failure of empathy. If you conceive of terrorists and the people they live amongst as some kind of mysterious abstraction rather than as people more like you than not, it might be a little harder to grasp how they'd respond when attacked by foreign robots.
That'a pretty much it. The attraction of aerial bombing and drones is that they involve killing from a distance, with no personal risk for the aggressor, and reduce the people being killed to abstractions. There haven't been any major terrorist attacks in America since 9/11, and many people credit that to the effectiveness of the drone program. Kill them over there so they don't kill us over here.
But the danger of making murder into a technological process and victims into abstractions is that it normalizes a state of perpetual war (for the side with the drones, anyway) and makes it impossible for the war to ever stop. If you keep killing them over there, they're really motivated to kill you over here...
posted by Kevin Street at 12:44 PM on November 27, 2015 [1 favorite]
The attraction of aerial bombing and drones is that they involve killing from a distance, with no personal risk for the aggressor, and reduce the people being killed to abstractions.
The former, yes, but drone operators are seeing PTSD rates similar to other "trigger-puller" service members. There is no illusion among the leadership that "video game war" is psychologically easier for the people who wage it.
posted by Etrigan at 12:58 PM on November 27, 2015
The former, yes, but drone operators are seeing PTSD rates similar to other "trigger-puller" service members. There is no illusion among the leadership that "video game war" is psychologically easier for the people who wage it.
posted by Etrigan at 12:58 PM on November 27, 2015
So where does this leave us? Same as before: with a violent multi-factional morass with every onlooking power's national interests both split within themselves and set in opposition with each other.
Everybody makes money off the status quo.
(Actually, if you want an off the wall read, google "Slavonic Corps")
posted by Smedleyman at 7:50 PM on November 27, 2015 [1 favorite]
Everybody makes money off the status quo.
(Actually, if you want an off the wall read, google "Slavonic Corps")
posted by Smedleyman at 7:50 PM on November 27, 2015 [1 favorite]
AJE: Turkey's president voices "sadness" over downing of Russian jet on Syria border, saying he wishes it had not happened.
posted by rosswald at 7:02 AM on November 28, 2015
posted by rosswald at 7:02 AM on November 28, 2015
The U.S. Air Campaign in Syria Is Suspiciously Impressive at Not Killing Civilians
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:04 PM on November 29, 2015
posted by Joe in Australia at 10:04 PM on November 29, 2015
Are they still running those accounting rules where every adult male they kill was ipso facto a combatant?
posted by flabdablet at 6:45 AM on November 30, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by flabdablet at 6:45 AM on November 30, 2015 [2 favorites]
What can we expect from Russia in Syria? —Kadri Liik, Senior Policy Fellow, European Council on Foreign Relations.
"The motivators of Russia’s actions in Syria are rooted in three contexts: strategic, transactional, and domestic." The article focuses primarily on the strategic context.
posted by Kabanos at 8:06 AM on November 30, 2015
"The motivators of Russia’s actions in Syria are rooted in three contexts: strategic, transactional, and domestic." The article focuses primarily on the strategic context.
posted by Kabanos at 8:06 AM on November 30, 2015
Foxtrot Alpha - Russian Su-34 Fullbacks Fly First Syria Sorties Loaded With Air-To-Air Missiles
posted by rosswald at 7:08 AM on December 1, 2015
posted by rosswald at 7:08 AM on December 1, 2015
Well, I guess we have a no-fly zone now.
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:20 PM on December 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
posted by Joe in Australia at 1:20 PM on December 1, 2015 [2 favorites]
British parliament votes to bomb Islamic State in Syria
posted by bukvich at 5:10 PM on December 2, 2015
posted by bukvich at 5:10 PM on December 2, 2015
HANDS OFF MONTENEGRO!
NATO Unveils Plans to Grow, Drawing Fury and Threats From Russia
Montenegro is a small but proud country that can be found, if you have a map of Montenegro, just down and to the left, beneath a small title saying "Montenegro". A 1:1 scale map is available for the nearsighted. Montenegro is the world's 161st largest country (just between Vanuatu and the Bahamas) and its large standing military (1,950 active members, a number of jeeps, an APC, and two frigates) means that its accession was vital to the future of NATO.
Russia has expressed concern at the accession of Montenegro, but it should be noted that the chairman of the Duma’s defense committee statement that “they are ready to admit even the North Pole to NATO just for the sake of encircling Russia” is not correct, because Montenego does not border Russia. In further news, there are worried expressions on the faces of the Foreign Ministers of Ukraine (remaining portion), Romania, and Serbia.
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:37 PM on December 2, 2015
NATO Unveils Plans to Grow, Drawing Fury and Threats From Russia
Montenegro is a small but proud country that can be found, if you have a map of Montenegro, just down and to the left, beneath a small title saying "Montenegro". A 1:1 scale map is available for the nearsighted. Montenegro is the world's 161st largest country (just between Vanuatu and the Bahamas) and its large standing military (1,950 active members, a number of jeeps, an APC, and two frigates) means that its accession was vital to the future of NATO.
Russia has expressed concern at the accession of Montenegro, but it should be noted that the chairman of the Duma’s defense committee statement that “they are ready to admit even the North Pole to NATO just for the sake of encircling Russia” is not correct, because Montenego does not border Russia. In further news, there are worried expressions on the faces of the Foreign Ministers of Ukraine (remaining portion), Romania, and Serbia.
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:37 PM on December 2, 2015
Report: Israel practiced defeating S-300 Russian defense system in Greece
[...] The sources said a Russian S-300 anti-aircraft system, sold to Cyprus 18 years ago but now located on the Greek island of Crete, had been activated during joint drills between the Greek and Israeli air forces in April-May this year.posted by Joe in Australia at 4:30 AM on December 5, 2015
Very surprising, and I can't see how this is going to be possible: Germany's fighters are stationed in Turkey.
Germany 'draws up plans to prevent sharing intelligence' with Nato ally Turkey
posted by Joe in Australia at 7:43 PM on December 5, 2015 [1 favorite]
Germany 'draws up plans to prevent sharing intelligence' with Nato ally Turkey
German commanders fear Ankara may use intelligence of its flights to target Kurdish forces allied to the West
posted by Joe in Australia at 7:43 PM on December 5, 2015 [1 favorite]
Evidence of Turkish cooperation in oil smuggling by Russia and accusations of Ergoden family involvement.
posted by adamvasco at 5:18 PM on December 9, 2015 [1 favorite]
posted by adamvasco at 5:18 PM on December 9, 2015 [1 favorite]
Putin is, like, Super Troll. He is just so good at embarrassing other leaders and isn't embarrassed by his own complicity in similar events. The family and friends of an autocratic populist are manipulating national policy for their own profit? O VLADIMIR SAY IT AIN'T SO.
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:05 PM on December 10, 2015
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:05 PM on December 10, 2015
Not even Russia?
Medical Aid Group Rebuffed On ‘War Crimes’ Tribunal for Hospital Attack
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:09 PM on December 10, 2015 [2 favorites]
Medical Aid Group Rebuffed On ‘War Crimes’ Tribunal for Hospital Attack
Doctors Without Borders has failed to secure a single country to support its call for an independent investigation into the Oct. 3 U.S. attack on its hospital in Kunduz [...]The article continues:
The White House also gave the group a cold shoulder despite President Obama’s normally effusive support for non-governmental humanitarian groups.Yes, well.
posted by Joe in Australia at 6:09 PM on December 10, 2015 [2 favorites]
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posted by TheWhiteSkull at 1:30 PM on November 25, 2015 [40 favorites]