Ontari-ari-ari-o
June 5, 2018 5:56 AM Subscribe
Voters in Canada's largest province go to the polls on Thursday. Liberal premier Kathleen Wynne followed her sorry-not sorry campaign with the surprising-not surprising admission that she won't win. PC leader Doug Ford has been light on official policy statements, but it hasn't been difficult to figure out where he stands. Andrea Horwath's left-wing NDP rose dramatically in the polls during the first part of May, but the better spread of votes across ridings for the PCs means that the NDP has only a slim chance of winning. Voters are asking how best to vote strategically. Ontari-ari-ari-o.
The campaign wouldn't be complete, of course, without some last-minute Ford drama, as PC Leader Doug Ford faces lawsuit alleging millions withheld from late brother's family.
The campaign wouldn't be complete, of course, without some last-minute Ford drama, as PC Leader Doug Ford faces lawsuit alleging millions withheld from late brother's family.
One day we will stop rewarding white men born with everything who manage to squander most of it. Thursday probably won't be that day, but one day. I hope.
posted by yellowbinder at 6:25 AM on June 5, 2018 [10 favorites]
posted by yellowbinder at 6:25 AM on June 5, 2018 [10 favorites]
Don’t lose faith! Vote, take your friends to vote. Turn up. My riding is probably going NDP and I am in Rob Ford Nation.
posted by warriorqueen at 6:29 AM on June 5, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by warriorqueen at 6:29 AM on June 5, 2018 [5 favorites]
Most interesting scenario: Greens win one seat (which is looking increasingly likely) and hold the balance of power.
posted by clawsoon at 6:33 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 6:33 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
I voted for the party I hate the least. If only I could vote Cthulhu. Ah well. I still voted.
posted by Fizz at 6:45 AM on June 5, 2018
posted by Fizz at 6:45 AM on June 5, 2018
Wynne's announcement was astonishing. One the one hand, it showed a forthrightness that is sorely lacking in politics, and I respect that. On the other hand:
Wynne said whichever way the vote goes, people should hope for a minority win to keep the government "from acting too extreme — one way or the other."
If cooperation with other parties is such a laudable goal, if getting rid of the dictates of first-past-the-post majority rule is so desirable, then she could have acted on that years and years ago. That we have a lousy electoral system is only a problem if you're at the short end of it, it seems.
And having said that, I think that Wynne's reputation will improve over the long term, particularly in light of what's coming. I am no Liberal supporter, and so I had my issues with her, but I genuinely do not understand the real hatred that seems to be out there for her. It's an impossible job with too many things to balance, and she handed it capably, even though I disagree with many of the things she and her party did. If she didn't come after years of Liberal rule under McGuinty, she would probably be doing much better. Instead, it's simply time for a change.
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:46 AM on June 5, 2018 [7 favorites]
Wynne said whichever way the vote goes, people should hope for a minority win to keep the government "from acting too extreme — one way or the other."
If cooperation with other parties is such a laudable goal, if getting rid of the dictates of first-past-the-post majority rule is so desirable, then she could have acted on that years and years ago. That we have a lousy electoral system is only a problem if you're at the short end of it, it seems.
And having said that, I think that Wynne's reputation will improve over the long term, particularly in light of what's coming. I am no Liberal supporter, and so I had my issues with her, but I genuinely do not understand the real hatred that seems to be out there for her. It's an impossible job with too many things to balance, and she handed it capably, even though I disagree with many of the things she and her party did. If she didn't come after years of Liberal rule under McGuinty, she would probably be doing much better. Instead, it's simply time for a change.
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:46 AM on June 5, 2018 [7 favorites]
Éric Grenier has been aggregating polls for the CBC Poll Tracker and every day I look at them and hope that he's spectacularly, utterly, FiveThirtyEight-level wrong on this one, which is a terribly rude thing to think about a regular dude just doing his job. (Sorry, Éric.)
posted by Mary Ellen Carter at 6:50 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Mary Ellen Carter at 6:50 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
My mind boggles in how anyone can take Doug seriously after the debacle that was his brother, then I remember all the idiots who elected (t)Rump. (And.. we have our share of idiots here too, otherwise the Fords would never have gotten as far as they have...)
posted by jkaczor at 6:55 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by jkaczor at 6:55 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
Éric being Éric, he probably is wrong. He always is. He's always wrong, and then blames it on poor data collection and nothing in his methodology. While it's true that the Canadian political landscape isn't as rich in polling as the States, it's also true that Éric never, ever gets any of these right. He's no Nate Silver.
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:55 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:55 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
MetaFilter: vote Cthulhu
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 6:56 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Johnny Wallflower at 6:56 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
General Zod is available, but this time around he's only accepting kneeling, not votes.
posted by clawsoon at 6:58 AM on June 5, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 6:58 AM on June 5, 2018 [5 favorites]
I agree with jkaczor. People will vote in Ford as if they have complete amnesia of what horrible people the Fords are. They didn't even release a platform. I really liked Wynne but the Liberals' time in office is done. I am voting NDP as I will not split the left vote in my riding even though I might normally vote Liberal or Green. Also, the NDP candidate is *amazing* (as was her predecessor) and I find the area Liberal candidate weak on policy ideas beyond her wanting to win. In short, go Bhutila Karpoche!!!
posted by biggreenplant at 7:05 AM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by biggreenplant at 7:05 AM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
This was my first vote as a Canadian citizen.
Congratulations Kitteh!
I've been impressed with the local Greens candidates this election. They've actually fielded some decent candidates.
One day we will stop rewarding white men born with everything who manage to squander most of it.
The PCs had 3 female leadership candidates (Elliott would have been a capable leader and even Mulroney would have been acceptable) and they went with easily the most obnoxious & dumbest white man they could find. In any other election they would have been roundly defeated but because of the way things have gone for Wynne we are sadly stuck with him for a bit. The lawsuit filed by Rob's widow citing issues which in their pettiness ring true to my mind but I'm not sure it'll make much of a difference to most PC voters.
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:07 AM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
Congratulations Kitteh!
I've been impressed with the local Greens candidates this election. They've actually fielded some decent candidates.
One day we will stop rewarding white men born with everything who manage to squander most of it.
The PCs had 3 female leadership candidates (Elliott would have been a capable leader and even Mulroney would have been acceptable) and they went with easily the most obnoxious & dumbest white man they could find. In any other election they would have been roundly defeated but because of the way things have gone for Wynne we are sadly stuck with him for a bit. The lawsuit filed by Rob's widow citing issues which in their pettiness ring true to my mind but I'm not sure it'll make much of a difference to most PC voters.
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:07 AM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
I cannot fucking believe we’re staring down the barrel of a Ford majority. These last few years have really blasted my belief in humanity and this is not helping at all.
posted by rodlymight at 7:08 AM on June 5, 2018 [16 favorites]
posted by rodlymight at 7:08 AM on June 5, 2018 [16 favorites]
Doug-fucking-Ford. I mean the thing that really gets me is that the conservative party had some other perfectly reasonable candidates, and they go with Doug-fucking-Ford. I'm trying to savour the schadenfreude of this brewing scandal with his brother's widow, but then I know that populist politicians are somehow magically immune to scandal.
Oh well, hat's off to Kathleen Wynne and Andrea Horwath. I respect Kathleen Wynne a fair bit for a number of reasons, not the least of which is how she's managed this election. I think she's played a good long game - knowing that the liberals are toast, but trying to secure their legacy; allowing them to be electable again down the road, while arguably tipping the election for the NDP in the mean time.
And I didn't like how Andrea Horwath shifted the NDP to the right in the last election, but if she'll simply continue what the liberal's have built on while navigating Ontario through a trade war with the US, she'll have done a good job.
But we're probably going to get Doug-fucking-Ford. Can he at least not smoke crack? Because I was really tired after years of fielding people's inquiries about my crack smoking mayor.
posted by Alex404 at 7:09 AM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
Oh well, hat's off to Kathleen Wynne and Andrea Horwath. I respect Kathleen Wynne a fair bit for a number of reasons, not the least of which is how she's managed this election. I think she's played a good long game - knowing that the liberals are toast, but trying to secure their legacy; allowing them to be electable again down the road, while arguably tipping the election for the NDP in the mean time.
And I didn't like how Andrea Horwath shifted the NDP to the right in the last election, but if she'll simply continue what the liberal's have built on while navigating Ontario through a trade war with the US, she'll have done a good job.
But we're probably going to get Doug-fucking-Ford. Can he at least not smoke crack? Because I was really tired after years of fielding people's inquiries about my crack smoking mayor.
posted by Alex404 at 7:09 AM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
From the Beaverton: Doug Ford finds millions in efficiencies in brother’s widow’s inheritance.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:09 AM on June 5, 2018 [14 favorites]
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:09 AM on June 5, 2018 [14 favorites]
Yeah, this election is a weird one.
The Liberals' messaging just seems so bad. Just unabashedly centrist. This is from an outside observer, but holy shit the tone deafness on some of the stuff I've seen is ridiculous.
posted by ODiV at 7:10 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
The Liberals' messaging just seems so bad. Just unabashedly centrist. This is from an outside observer, but holy shit the tone deafness on some of the stuff I've seen is ridiculous.
posted by ODiV at 7:10 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
The general tenor among professed PC voters I've encountered is "Sure, Ford is terrible, but I'm not voting leftist!" -- as if the PCs resemble a traditional Canadian conservative party right now. I ran across one the other day who (based on his last name) was of Polish descent who said he wouldn't vote NDP because his ancestors would roll over in their graves. I tried three times to phrase a "What does that even mean?" answer but couldn't drain the disdain out of it enough and gave it up as counterproductive.
posted by Quindar Beep at 7:11 AM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Quindar Beep at 7:11 AM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
[begins to draft Ontario election post, opens a new window to search for supporting previous MeFi links, happens to see clawsoon's post, sighs, deletes draft]
I still have some hope the NDPs will manage to pull off a win of some kind. The news about Renata Ford's lawsuit against Doug only broke yesterday and the effect of that won't have shown up in the polling data quite yet. If her allegations are true, and I am pretty bloody sure one of Toronto's best law firms would not have made such damning and easily disprovable accusations without being sure of their ground, Doug has been trying to swindle his brother's widow and children out of their inheritance AND running his family's label company into the ground with his incompetence and greed.
The hatred Wynne is up against turns my stomach. It's pure misogyny and homophobia too. Wynne is a capable, dedicated, hard-working leader who has governed for five years without a single scandal and has a stunning ability to keep calm and carry on despite all the vitriol and her polling numbers. There are plenty of reasonable criticisms to be made of her decisions, but people are chanting "Lock her up" at Ford's rallies without offering any justification whatsoever for criminal charges to be made. I do hope she at least wins her own seat. She's tied with the PC candidate in her riding.
posted by orange swan at 7:14 AM on June 5, 2018 [19 favorites]
I still have some hope the NDPs will manage to pull off a win of some kind. The news about Renata Ford's lawsuit against Doug only broke yesterday and the effect of that won't have shown up in the polling data quite yet. If her allegations are true, and I am pretty bloody sure one of Toronto's best law firms would not have made such damning and easily disprovable accusations without being sure of their ground, Doug has been trying to swindle his brother's widow and children out of their inheritance AND running his family's label company into the ground with his incompetence and greed.
The hatred Wynne is up against turns my stomach. It's pure misogyny and homophobia too. Wynne is a capable, dedicated, hard-working leader who has governed for five years without a single scandal and has a stunning ability to keep calm and carry on despite all the vitriol and her polling numbers. There are plenty of reasonable criticisms to be made of her decisions, but people are chanting "Lock her up" at Ford's rallies without offering any justification whatsoever for criminal charges to be made. I do hope she at least wins her own seat. She's tied with the PC candidate in her riding.
posted by orange swan at 7:14 AM on June 5, 2018 [19 favorites]
The bulk of Conservative criticism against always ends up centering firmly and grossly on her gender and sexuality, as orange swan notes. It immediately negates any interest I have in engaging with PC voters.
posted by Kitteh at 7:17 AM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Kitteh at 7:17 AM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
I was at a gas station on Dundas West on Sunday night – deep orange turf – and overheard the following conversation between two strangers:
Dude 1: "Man these prices are bad, eh?"
Dude 2: "At least it's not B.C., $1.50 a litre."
Dude 1: "That's why we gotta vote Ford. You voting Ford?"
Dude 2: "Of course! Seems like a smart guy."
Dude 1: "A really smart guy."
The End, of everything
posted by Beardman at 7:17 AM on June 5, 2018 [21 favorites]
Dude 1: "Man these prices are bad, eh?"
Dude 2: "At least it's not B.C., $1.50 a litre."
Dude 1: "That's why we gotta vote Ford. You voting Ford?"
Dude 2: "Of course! Seems like a smart guy."
Dude 1: "A really smart guy."
The End, of everything
posted by Beardman at 7:17 AM on June 5, 2018 [21 favorites]
Having grown up in a part of the province that is most definitely not Toronto, I’m just here to say that the pig-ignorant, misogynist and homophobic voters Ford is counting on are a dime a dozen in Ontario.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:17 AM on June 5, 2018 [19 favorites]
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:17 AM on June 5, 2018 [19 favorites]
Now I need to do something about this Ontario song earworm that’s made itself at home in my head. We had to sing that song in grade 1.
*shakes fist at clawsoon*
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:21 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
*shakes fist at clawsoon*
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 7:21 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
I live in Dundas West, Beardman, and come on, you're basing your conclusion on a conversation between two people. I don't believe for one minute that the PC candidate will win here. The NDP is polling at 51% in Davenport while the remainder is basically split between the Liberals and the PCs.
posted by orange swan at 7:21 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by orange swan at 7:21 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
but people are chanting "Lock her up" at Ford's rallies without offering any justification whatsoever for criminal charges to be made
Meanwhile... PC candidates have resigned over "theft of data"... It's like the "right" lives in a complete absence of logical thought bubble... They believe what they believe and will never let the facts intrude.
Hmmm, reminded of:
"Talking to a conservative is like talking to your refrigerator... You know, the light goes on, the light goes off; it's not going to do anything that isn't built into it... And I'm not going to talk to a conservative anymore than I talk to my damn refrigerator."
Track 5: "Candidacy" The Past Didn't go Anywhere, Righteous Babe Records (1996)
posted by jkaczor at 7:22 AM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
Meanwhile... PC candidates have resigned over "theft of data"... It's like the "right" lives in a complete absence of logical thought bubble... They believe what they believe and will never let the facts intrude.
Hmmm, reminded of:
"Talking to a conservative is like talking to your refrigerator... You know, the light goes on, the light goes off; it's not going to do anything that isn't built into it... And I'm not going to talk to a conservative anymore than I talk to my damn refrigerator."
Track 5: "Candidacy" The Past Didn't go Anywhere, Righteous Babe Records (1996)
posted by jkaczor at 7:22 AM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
I would be more grimly satisfied with the total shellacking of the Grits, after they kept much of the Harris austerity in place from 2003 on and fucked the unions, if it weren't for the fact that the NDP will just take their place as the slightly-less-bad-neoliberal party.
I mean, a Rae-era NDP capitulation on rent control in new buildings got me priced out of my apartment downtown (something which, to her credit, Wynne finally tried to fix after the Parkdale rent strikes); and my new riding's NDP candidate just sounded off about how public school teachers should be prepared to take a 15% pay cut. Yeah.
posted by Beardman at 7:25 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
I mean, a Rae-era NDP capitulation on rent control in new buildings got me priced out of my apartment downtown (something which, to her credit, Wynne finally tried to fix after the Parkdale rent strikes); and my new riding's NDP candidate just sounded off about how public school teachers should be prepared to take a 15% pay cut. Yeah.
posted by Beardman at 7:25 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
Yeah, this election is a weird one
The Trillium Party are fairly fringe, and relatively new. Too socially conservative for the PCs apparently. Their main issue appears to be the sex ed curriculum because it teaches kids how to give blow jobs apparently (having read it, it doesn't). Locally, other than the perennial Communist party candidate (sadly no competing Marxist Leninist this time) & the confusing Libertarian guy, we have a candidate in the None of the Above Direct Democracy Party, a party I can sympathize with at times.
I still have some hope the NDPs will manage to pull off a win of some kind.
I think there's a decent chance for a minority and the NDP have fielded some good candidates. You gotta have some hope right? Right?
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:27 AM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
The Trillium Party are fairly fringe, and relatively new. Too socially conservative for the PCs apparently. Their main issue appears to be the sex ed curriculum because it teaches kids how to give blow jobs apparently (having read it, it doesn't). Locally, other than the perennial Communist party candidate (sadly no competing Marxist Leninist this time) & the confusing Libertarian guy, we have a candidate in the None of the Above Direct Democracy Party, a party I can sympathize with at times.
I still have some hope the NDPs will manage to pull off a win of some kind.
I think there's a decent chance for a minority and the NDP have fielded some good candidates. You gotta have some hope right? Right?
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:27 AM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
I live in Dundas West, Beardman, and come on, you're basing your conclusion on a conversation between two people. I don't believe for one minute that the PC candidate will win here.
Oh yeah, no, I didn't mean that the PCs will win Parkdale! I guess my comment's import was misleading; I was just surprised to encounter that in that neighbourhood. My thinking was: wow, if you can run into that here, then imagine the hinterland. (Also surprised that of all the characteristics people could find appealing in Ford, they chose "smart.")
posted by Beardman at 7:28 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
Oh yeah, no, I didn't mean that the PCs will win Parkdale! I guess my comment's import was misleading; I was just surprised to encounter that in that neighbourhood. My thinking was: wow, if you can run into that here, then imagine the hinterland. (Also surprised that of all the characteristics people could find appealing in Ford, they chose "smart.")
posted by Beardman at 7:28 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
Wynne is a capable, dedicated, hard-working leader who has governed for five years without a single scandal
The Gas Plant scandal.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 7:29 AM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
The Gas Plant scandal.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 7:29 AM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
Most interesting scenario: Greens win one seat (which is looking increasingly likely) and hold the balance of power.
Interesting, maybe, but not likely and also far from ideal. The Ontario Green party occupies a weird place on the spectrum consisting of some left-leaning policies mixed with some "business-friendly" corporate tax breaks and a not-so-subtle anti-union bent. Their supporters, at least the ones I've talked to (and I live in the riding they're most likely to win), tend to be a mix of single issue environmentalists, progressives who conveniently ignore the Greens' poor social justice and labour policies, and disaffected voters who aren't necessarily conservative but still prefer to vote for middle-aged white men like Mike Schreiner.
I'm an NDP member and hate to see the left vote split so badly, but I don't think the NDP and Greens will ever merge, so neither will be very successful. The younger voters in particular trend Green and see the NDP as outdated 1960s socialism because they have been brought up to see unions as corrupt and bad for society.
So we will have Premier Doug Ford, and we will deserve what we get.
posted by rocket88 at 7:31 AM on June 5, 2018 [5 favorites]
Interesting, maybe, but not likely and also far from ideal. The Ontario Green party occupies a weird place on the spectrum consisting of some left-leaning policies mixed with some "business-friendly" corporate tax breaks and a not-so-subtle anti-union bent. Their supporters, at least the ones I've talked to (and I live in the riding they're most likely to win), tend to be a mix of single issue environmentalists, progressives who conveniently ignore the Greens' poor social justice and labour policies, and disaffected voters who aren't necessarily conservative but still prefer to vote for middle-aged white men like Mike Schreiner.
I'm an NDP member and hate to see the left vote split so badly, but I don't think the NDP and Greens will ever merge, so neither will be very successful. The younger voters in particular trend Green and see the NDP as outdated 1960s socialism because they have been brought up to see unions as corrupt and bad for society.
So we will have Premier Doug Ford, and we will deserve what we get.
posted by rocket88 at 7:31 AM on June 5, 2018 [5 favorites]
The Gas Plant scandal.
As a reminder -- all three major parties wanted to cancel the gas plants.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:39 AM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
As a reminder -- all three major parties wanted to cancel the gas plants.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:39 AM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
I was surprised in the past week to hear Liberal ads attacking the NDP for not supporting back-to-work legislation. It was a reminder for me that the Liberals are, in fact, Liberals.
posted by clawsoon at 7:44 AM on June 5, 2018 [14 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 7:44 AM on June 5, 2018 [14 favorites]
I'm really torn. While I consider the broader party politics, I pay attention to my local candidates, and try to vote in the best person for the riding. I have some issues with the incumbent MPP but she seems to have done her job, been out in the community (which is a first for our area's MPP), and probably should be voted back in. The other party's candidates seem like weaker choices for a variety of reasons.
The problem, of course, is that she's a Liberal, and with the election as close as it is, voting for that party is problematic. On the other hand, I don't really want to see the Liberal party reduced to nothing, as I think our democracy benefits by having a wider variety of choices.
(Personally, I have no party affiliation and have voted for at least three political parties in my lifetime.)
I've been hoping that somebody posted an Ontario election thread because I have an anecdote I've been dying to share about how not to address potential voters. If you're involved in party politics, please share this with your volunteers. Hell, print it out in big letters on poster board and tack it up in your campaign offices.
At the very start of the election campaign I had a knock on my door. It was two guys, one middle aged, one slightly younger, who were campaigning for the incumbent candidate. I'm always willing to listen to what the volunteers say when they arrive on my doorstep, so they had a pretty easy audience. Except they blew it with the first words they uttered (which happened to come from the older guy).
"Hi. We're here to talk to you about the secret election," he said with a big grin on his face.
"Secret election? What secret election?"
"Well, you probably don't know but there's an election coming up in Ontario that nobody is talking about."
At that point I just lost it. I mean we had just gone through the Tory leadership race. The news hadn't been doing anything but covering the run-up to the election. The government had been dropping proposals and legislation to backstop its agenda. Plus I'm not an idiot. I've always been interested in politics, even before I could be old enough to be called an informed voter. Also, it's part of my job to actually be up on this stuff.
But no, because he was the big smart man and I was just the dumb woman who opened the door, he had to explain to me what an election was.
So I informed him in no uncertain terms that elections can't be secret in a democracy and that he was making a grave error in insulting the intelligence of potential voters by assuming they were dumb and that in all likelihood he had just cost his candidate a vote (which was a fib, as I wouldn't base a voting decision strictly on the actions of a dumb party campaigner, although it certainly is a factor).
His response to my retort. Come on, guess. I'm sure you can predict what it is.
"I was just joking and trying to be friendly."
Of course you were.
With any luck my response tempered his stupid impulses to keep up with that banter and taught the younger guy (who didn't let out a peep) a lesson in how not to approach people.
posted by sardonyx at 7:46 AM on June 5, 2018 [17 favorites]
The problem, of course, is that she's a Liberal, and with the election as close as it is, voting for that party is problematic. On the other hand, I don't really want to see the Liberal party reduced to nothing, as I think our democracy benefits by having a wider variety of choices.
(Personally, I have no party affiliation and have voted for at least three political parties in my lifetime.)
I've been hoping that somebody posted an Ontario election thread because I have an anecdote I've been dying to share about how not to address potential voters. If you're involved in party politics, please share this with your volunteers. Hell, print it out in big letters on poster board and tack it up in your campaign offices.
At the very start of the election campaign I had a knock on my door. It was two guys, one middle aged, one slightly younger, who were campaigning for the incumbent candidate. I'm always willing to listen to what the volunteers say when they arrive on my doorstep, so they had a pretty easy audience. Except they blew it with the first words they uttered (which happened to come from the older guy).
"Hi. We're here to talk to you about the secret election," he said with a big grin on his face.
"Secret election? What secret election?"
"Well, you probably don't know but there's an election coming up in Ontario that nobody is talking about."
At that point I just lost it. I mean we had just gone through the Tory leadership race. The news hadn't been doing anything but covering the run-up to the election. The government had been dropping proposals and legislation to backstop its agenda. Plus I'm not an idiot. I've always been interested in politics, even before I could be old enough to be called an informed voter. Also, it's part of my job to actually be up on this stuff.
But no, because he was the big smart man and I was just the dumb woman who opened the door, he had to explain to me what an election was.
So I informed him in no uncertain terms that elections can't be secret in a democracy and that he was making a grave error in insulting the intelligence of potential voters by assuming they were dumb and that in all likelihood he had just cost his candidate a vote (which was a fib, as I wouldn't base a voting decision strictly on the actions of a dumb party campaigner, although it certainly is a factor).
His response to my retort. Come on, guess. I'm sure you can predict what it is.
"I was just joking and trying to be friendly."
Of course you were.
With any luck my response tempered his stupid impulses to keep up with that banter and taught the younger guy (who didn't let out a peep) a lesson in how not to approach people.
posted by sardonyx at 7:46 AM on June 5, 2018 [17 favorites]
I leave for a European vacation this Thursday evening, before the polls close (I already voted for my riding's five-time NDP incumbent). So I won't know who won until I land in Copenhagen, and I have a feeling the news will be a lousy kick-off for my trip. Strategic voting hasn't worked in the past, and it probably won't work this time, so hello Premier Ford; the best I can bring myself to hope for is a PC minority. Great job, Ontario.
> But we're probably going to get Doug-fucking-Ford. Can he at least not smoke crack? Because I was really tired after years of fielding people's inquiries about my crack smoking mayor.
Honestly, the crack smoking was (for me at least) a ways down the list of reasons why Rob and Doug Ford (who styled himself the brains of the operation, lol) were terrible co-mayors (I know Doug was "just" a councilor, but that's what he was).
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:47 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
> But we're probably going to get Doug-fucking-Ford. Can he at least not smoke crack? Because I was really tired after years of fielding people's inquiries about my crack smoking mayor.
Honestly, the crack smoking was (for me at least) a ways down the list of reasons why Rob and Doug Ford (who styled himself the brains of the operation, lol) were terrible co-mayors (I know Doug was "just" a councilor, but that's what he was).
posted by The Card Cheat at 7:47 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
I followed this election and I'm officially OK with the idea of building a wall around Ontario now.
posted by Kinski's Ghost at 7:53 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Kinski's Ghost at 7:53 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
I live on Dundas West and mostly orange signs around here. A few red. Only one Ford one that I've seen.
When I think of Rob Ford I think of a mayor who tore up bike lanes, so cars could drive faster on Jarvis, before I think of crack. But then I remember his supporters don't care about bike lanes and I despair and then I remember his supporters don't care about crack, either. As long as they can save their $60 annual SUV fee who gives a shit if the poor kids now have to pay $3 to go swimming? They got theirs!
Toronto - Crack smoker for mayor.
Ontario - Hash dealer for premier.
posted by dobbs at 8:03 AM on June 5, 2018 [5 favorites]
When I think of Rob Ford I think of a mayor who tore up bike lanes, so cars could drive faster on Jarvis, before I think of crack. But then I remember his supporters don't care about bike lanes and I despair and then I remember his supporters don't care about crack, either. As long as they can save their $60 annual SUV fee who gives a shit if the poor kids now have to pay $3 to go swimming? They got theirs!
Toronto - Crack smoker for mayor.
Ontario - Hash dealer for premier.
posted by dobbs at 8:03 AM on June 5, 2018 [5 favorites]
Éric being Éric, he probably is wrong. He always is. He's always wrong, and then blames it on poor data collection and nothing in his methodology. While it's true that the Canadian political landscape isn't as rich in polling as the States, it's also true that Éric never, ever gets any of these right. He's no Nate Silver.
To be fair to Éric, forecasting Canadian elections is a much more difficult task than American presidential elections; there are more parties, way more ridings in play, the role of the local candidate, the role of strategic voting, less demographic polarization. And of course less data and less granularity to work with.
Nate Silver tried a UK election once, failed miserably and hasn't tried a Westminster style election since. So it's not that Éric is wrong because he's a dummy like Sam Wang at Princeton (who had 99% odds for Clinton IIRC) who didn't understand how to forecast elections.
But it doesn't make Éric less wrong.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 8:05 AM on June 5, 2018 [5 favorites]
To be fair to Éric, forecasting Canadian elections is a much more difficult task than American presidential elections; there are more parties, way more ridings in play, the role of the local candidate, the role of strategic voting, less demographic polarization. And of course less data and less granularity to work with.
Nate Silver tried a UK election once, failed miserably and hasn't tried a Westminster style election since. So it's not that Éric is wrong because he's a dummy like Sam Wang at Princeton (who had 99% odds for Clinton IIRC) who didn't understand how to forecast elections.
But it doesn't make Éric less wrong.
posted by Homeboy Trouble at 8:05 AM on June 5, 2018 [5 favorites]
When I think of Doug Ford as Toronto city councillor, I think of the guy who did not know who Margaret Atwood is.
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 8:12 AM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 8:12 AM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
When I think of Doug Ford as Toronto city councillor, I remember the first time I ever heard him speak which is when he went on the local CBC radio morning show and talked about building a monorail in Toronto with complete sincerity.
posted by Ashwagandha at 8:18 AM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Ashwagandha at 8:18 AM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
From the NYT's Will a Canadian Donald Trump Become Ontario’s Leader:
Doug Ford was elected to City Council at the same time and was his brother’s right hand. To many, they were one — dubbed Twin FordBrother by the celebrated Toronto novelist Margaret Atwood.
Oh, NYT. Atwood actually called them "Twin FordMayor":
Twin Fordmayor seems to think those who eat Timbits (like me) don't read, can't count, & are stupid eh?
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:19 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
Doug Ford was elected to City Council at the same time and was his brother’s right hand. To many, they were one — dubbed Twin FordBrother by the celebrated Toronto novelist Margaret Atwood.
Oh, NYT. Atwood actually called them "Twin FordMayor":
Twin Fordmayor seems to think those who eat Timbits (like me) don't read, can't count, & are stupid eh?
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:19 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
Man, I know US news outlets are for shit these days, but surely they can grab a better hot take than immediately comparing Ford to Trump.
posted by Kitteh at 8:23 AM on June 5, 2018
posted by Kitteh at 8:23 AM on June 5, 2018
I live in Hamilton Centre, and while this is Horwath Central, there are also a large number of red signs. Pike, the local Liberal candidate, has a very strong grassroots presence in the community, and being disaffected NDP, may be speaking to similarly-disaffected NDP supporters.
As for Horwath herself, there was a major flip-flop on LRT. The flip-flop was not handled particularly well, as it was explained away on a 'you all misunderstood me' basis. LRT is the major, perennial political debate here in town, and every time it seems to be settled, there is some other hiccup which prevents shovels hitting the ground. That Horwath got this fundamental local issue wrong didn't do her any favours. Her last election campaign didn't do her any favours. She'll likely win again, but I'm not sensing any real enthusiasm for her, particularly if the right Liberal candidate can find an opening.
I've only seen one blue sign.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:24 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
As for Horwath herself, there was a major flip-flop on LRT. The flip-flop was not handled particularly well, as it was explained away on a 'you all misunderstood me' basis. LRT is the major, perennial political debate here in town, and every time it seems to be settled, there is some other hiccup which prevents shovels hitting the ground. That Horwath got this fundamental local issue wrong didn't do her any favours. Her last election campaign didn't do her any favours. She'll likely win again, but I'm not sensing any real enthusiasm for her, particularly if the right Liberal candidate can find an opening.
I've only seen one blue sign.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:24 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
I wonder how the Globe and Mail is going to handle endorsing the conservatives again. Another "Conservatives without Doug Ford", or just a plain old, "we should give him a chance?"
posted by Alex404 at 8:28 AM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Alex404 at 8:28 AM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
I wonder how the Globe and Mail is going to handle endorsing the conservatives again. Another "Conservatives without Doug Ford", or just a plain old, "we should give him a chance?
I found the transcript of that editorial meeting:
"I don't agree with his Bart-killing policy, but I do approve of his Selma-killing policy.”
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:30 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
I found the transcript of that editorial meeting:
"I don't agree with his Bart-killing policy, but I do approve of his Selma-killing policy.”
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:30 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
This election just depresses me. The Liberals have basically been running a decent government, and they are being driven out of office because people are bored and/or bigoted. And that stupid 10¢ gas tax promise, which I bet will never result in any savings at the pump if it even happens.
Does anyone know who "Ontario Proud" is? We've been receiving virulently anti-Grit and anti-NDP flyers from them in the mailbox. With a name like that I automatically assume it is some sort of right-wing white-supremacist group.
posted by fimbulvetr at 8:38 AM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
Does anyone know who "Ontario Proud" is? We've been receiving virulently anti-Grit and anti-NDP flyers from them in the mailbox. With a name like that I automatically assume it is some sort of right-wing white-supremacist group.
posted by fimbulvetr at 8:38 AM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
I was watching youtube a few days ago, and a doug ford ad came up. I felt dirty and angry just seeing the ad ("Immediately lower gas 10cents / litre"). Ms. nobeagle and I voted early last week (I even got two voter cards, but sadly let them know to remove one of my entries, and fix the name of the other one once again (it wouldn't be an ellection if I wasn't getting my name corrected it seems)).
When I heard Wynne already conceded the election but was still encouraging libs to vote lib I got bit hot under the collar. Part of it is I'm very much a strategic voter with the goal being "Not PC", so it feels to me like she should be encouraging Libs to vote NDP to avoid giving a PC victory despite more total left leaning votes. However I have to admit it's not quite the same thing as 2nd place Liberal recommending support to 1st place Liberal.
Nonetheless, the shift from Lib to NDP as the party of choice for the leftists is encouraging to me. In my first election in Canada, I would have preferred NDP, but strategically voted Lib based on polls, but NDP were an upset in the poll but still the incumbant conservative won (but would have lost against a combined ndp/lib). Since then NDP just keeps growing and Liberals might actually not have official party status after this election seems near incredible.
As nice as it is to see some sanity like marijuana reform moving forward, voting reform was the biggest promise from Trudeau that I hoped he'd keep. ...
posted by nobeagle at 8:43 AM on June 5, 2018
When I heard Wynne already conceded the election but was still encouraging libs to vote lib I got bit hot under the collar. Part of it is I'm very much a strategic voter with the goal being "Not PC", so it feels to me like she should be encouraging Libs to vote NDP to avoid giving a PC victory despite more total left leaning votes. However I have to admit it's not quite the same thing as 2nd place Liberal recommending support to 1st place Liberal.
Nonetheless, the shift from Lib to NDP as the party of choice for the leftists is encouraging to me. In my first election in Canada, I would have preferred NDP, but strategically voted Lib based on polls, but NDP were an upset in the poll but still the incumbant conservative won (but would have lost against a combined ndp/lib). Since then NDP just keeps growing and Liberals might actually not have official party status after this election seems near incredible.
As nice as it is to see some sanity like marijuana reform moving forward, voting reform was the biggest promise from Trudeau that I hoped he'd keep. ...
posted by nobeagle at 8:43 AM on June 5, 2018
Non-GTA PC voters are dreaming if they think Ford gives a crap about anything outside his metropolitan area.
posted by Kitteh at 8:46 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Kitteh at 8:46 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
Does anyone know who "Ontario Proud" is?
Who is Ontario Proud and why is it texting you?
TL;DR -- Anti-Liberal, Anti-NDP, process of elimination and cui bono, looks like a Tory effort to get around election laws.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:55 AM on June 5, 2018 [7 favorites]
Who is Ontario Proud and why is it texting you?
TL;DR -- Anti-Liberal, Anti-NDP, process of elimination and cui bono, looks like a Tory effort to get around election laws.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:55 AM on June 5, 2018 [7 favorites]
This election baffles me. Wynne has done a lot of great things and hasn't managed to have any corruption scandals, unlike pretty much every other politician around. The focus on her personality (which seems to be admirable in every way) rather than her platform (which I also like) is very depressing. I just don't get it. I'm not a devoted Liberal or anything, I've voted NDP at least as often... I just don't understand the depth of hatred I've seen targeting Wynne. I see less to complain about in her last term than in pretty much anyone else's, including Trudeau, who for some reason is still loved while she's hated.
posted by randomnity at 8:56 AM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by randomnity at 8:56 AM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
Ontario Proud is apparently one guy who has figured out how to work Facebook's algorithm.
Oh, and he's also gotten giant mystery donations from somebody. Won't say who.
posted by clawsoon at 8:58 AM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
Oh, and he's also gotten giant mystery donations from somebody. Won't say who.
posted by clawsoon at 8:58 AM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
He was on Canadaland this past spring and was predictably cagey about his backers as well as his message (hint: it reeks of "hey, if bad people are liking this, it's not my fault; I'm just putting out content the people want").
posted by Kitteh at 9:01 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Kitteh at 9:01 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
That must have been some pretty damn big chunk of money. Those flyers were all glossy and professional.
posted by fimbulvetr at 9:05 AM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by fimbulvetr at 9:05 AM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
I just to clarify my earlier statement, while I was angry about that one comment from Wynne (re: keep supporting lib; hamstring ndp) I have no anger towards her and would be happy if she were PM again; especially considering the horrible option of Ford. Not that it looked like anyone was accusing me of this; I just want it quite clear that I have no anger or grudge against her.
posted by nobeagle at 9:06 AM on June 5, 2018
posted by nobeagle at 9:06 AM on June 5, 2018
The editors at the "elitist newspapers" are still pro-Ford, despite acknowledging the NDP have the best financial platform. Either they expect the PCs to be able to rein in Doug Ford, or that he's actually serious and is merely playing up his image. Somehow that this happened recently elsewhere seems to have been forgotten, along with the recognition that a parliamentary party leader with a majority has a lot more legislative power than the President.
posted by Chuckles McLaughy du Haha, the depressed clown at 9:07 AM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Chuckles McLaughy du Haha, the depressed clown at 9:07 AM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
Does anyone know who "Ontario Proud" is?
I haven't gotten any flyers but I've seen one lawn sign and it happened to be on the racist biker guy who lives down the street from me so I assumed...
posted by Ashwagandha at 9:20 AM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
I haven't gotten any flyers but I've seen one lawn sign and it happened to be on the racist biker guy who lives down the street from me so I assumed...
posted by Ashwagandha at 9:20 AM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
The Liberals are hoping that a Ford led PC government will actually be the disaster that many people are anticipating, and that they'll be returned to government in 4 years. An NDP win will push the return of the OLP to power off for at least two more elections. Wynne is looking at what's good for the OLP, not for the good of the province. There was never a chance she'd suggest voting NDP to keep the PCs out.
If it's a minority government and they need to pick a side, I would think they're somewhat more likely to support the PCs than most of the electorate would prefer.
posted by Chuckles McLaughy du Haha, the depressed clown at 9:24 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
If it's a minority government and they need to pick a side, I would think they're somewhat more likely to support the PCs than most of the electorate would prefer.
posted by Chuckles McLaughy du Haha, the depressed clown at 9:24 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
Does anyone know who "Ontario Proud" is?
They just robo-called me 5m ago (on my mobile), ostensibly a poll... I responded, and only found out in this thread that they aren't legit, ugh.
posted by jkaczor at 9:36 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
They just robo-called me 5m ago (on my mobile), ostensibly a poll... I responded, and only found out in this thread that they aren't legit, ugh.
posted by jkaczor at 9:36 AM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
[Ontario Proud is a] Tory effort to get around election laws.
Not just spending, but also likely donations. Given 1) that Jeff Ballingall is not disclosing his donor list, 2) the surprises on the Fraser Institute donor list, and 3) the OnPCs enthusiastic climate inaction plan (cut the gas tax, remove the carbon tax), it would not surprise to see significant foreign and corporate sponsorship, particularly with the Koch brothers and the oil majors.
posted by bonehead at 9:48 AM on June 5, 2018
Not just spending, but also likely donations. Given 1) that Jeff Ballingall is not disclosing his donor list, 2) the surprises on the Fraser Institute donor list, and 3) the OnPCs enthusiastic climate inaction plan (cut the gas tax, remove the carbon tax), it would not surprise to see significant foreign and corporate sponsorship, particularly with the Koch brothers and the oil majors.
posted by bonehead at 9:48 AM on June 5, 2018
The PCs had 3 female leadership candidates (Elliott would have been a capable leader and even Mulroney would have been acceptable) and they went with easily the most obnoxious & dumbest white man they could find.
Let us not forget that as if to underline the second-time-as-farce aspects of this election, Elliott received more votes than Ford did for leader. I am not likely to vote PC, but with Elliott at the helm (or even Patrick Brown), I could at least feel they had a competent political mind running the show, not an ill-informed nyekulturny loudmouth whose vision last time he had any power was a Ferris wheel and a megamall.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:50 AM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
Let us not forget that as if to underline the second-time-as-farce aspects of this election, Elliott received more votes than Ford did for leader. I am not likely to vote PC, but with Elliott at the helm (or even Patrick Brown), I could at least feel they had a competent political mind running the show, not an ill-informed nyekulturny loudmouth whose vision last time he had any power was a Ferris wheel and a megamall.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 9:50 AM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
Asked if he would release audited financial statements from Deco and reveal his annual salary from the company, Ford twice changed the subject to repeat the claims are false.
Surely Douglas Robert Ford Jr. would never lie. Anyway, it probably doesn't matter because roughly 40% of my fellow citizens apparently want Mike Harris Part II: Dumber and Meaner.
posted by The Card Cheat at 10:09 AM on June 5, 2018 [8 favorites]
Surely Douglas Robert Ford Jr. would never lie. Anyway, it probably doesn't matter because roughly 40% of my fellow citizens apparently want Mike Harris Part II: Dumber and Meaner.
posted by The Card Cheat at 10:09 AM on June 5, 2018 [8 favorites]
Ontario Proud, the right-wing Facebook giant in Ontario's election, eyes federal election involvement
posted by No Robots at 10:14 AM on June 5, 2018
posted by No Robots at 10:14 AM on June 5, 2018
Does anyone know who "Ontario Proud" is?
From Canadaland:
Some critics of Ontario Proud — an influential Facebook page with over 354,000 followers that is also a registered third-party advertiser for the Ontario election — are accusing the organization of telling them to do as it says, not as it does. Over the the past several months, vocal detractors of the political action group, which impugns the characters of Liberal leaders Kathleen Wynne and Justin Trudeau on a near-daily basis, have been threatened with lawsuits for “libellous” statements made about Ontario Proud on Facebook and Twitter.
More on Ontario Proud via Canadaland.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:15 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
From Canadaland:
Some critics of Ontario Proud — an influential Facebook page with over 354,000 followers that is also a registered third-party advertiser for the Ontario election — are accusing the organization of telling them to do as it says, not as it does. Over the the past several months, vocal detractors of the political action group, which impugns the characters of Liberal leaders Kathleen Wynne and Justin Trudeau on a near-daily basis, have been threatened with lawsuits for “libellous” statements made about Ontario Proud on Facebook and Twitter.
More on Ontario Proud via Canadaland.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:15 AM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
Ugh. I hope someone at Elections Canada puts an end to any attempt at messing with the federal election. This shit is depressing.
posted by fimbulvetr at 10:20 AM on June 5, 2018
posted by fimbulvetr at 10:20 AM on June 5, 2018
I wonder how the Globe and Mail is going to handle endorsing the conservatives again.
The Globe isn't endorsing any party in this election. Its editorial yesterday was very critical of the Conservative platform and questioned Ford's qualifications to be Premier of Canada's most populous province. It said, among other things:
"[T]he [Conservatives] are asking voters to trust the acuity and judgment of their leader, a man whose brief political experience to this point largely consists of running interference during the chaotic mayoralty of his brother."
As well, in 2013, the Globe reported the results their 18-month investigation into the Ford family's history of dealing drugs. According to the Globe, Doug Ford sold hashish for about seven years.
Later in 2013, John Stackhouse, the Globe's Editor-in-Chief, defended the paper's decision to publish the story before the Ontario Press Council. In his statement to the Council, Stackhouse mentioned, among other things:
"[T]he drug trade had been a part of the lives of Doug Ford and his siblings, and that they were known for that amongst their peer group in central Etobicoke. Given the serious public concern about drug trafficking in Toronto, and given Doug Ford's own statements against the drug trade, we felt this information was irrefutably in the public interest."
"[T]he story of the Ford family is more complex than the family itself has promoted, and that the facts of that story pose questions about their independence to take on the drug trade."
"[T]he focal point of our investigation was never the recreational use of drugs or some fleeting misjudgment of youth, as has been suggested by the participants, perhaps as a way of diverting critical public attention; this was about a serious and sustained commercial activity, something most of us associate with criminals."
"[T]he facts printed in the Globe could be corroborated only through anonymous sources, and was done so through extraordinary and extensive interviewing by our staff and lawyers."
posted by New Frontier at 10:40 AM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
The Globe isn't endorsing any party in this election. Its editorial yesterday was very critical of the Conservative platform and questioned Ford's qualifications to be Premier of Canada's most populous province. It said, among other things:
"[T]he [Conservatives] are asking voters to trust the acuity and judgment of their leader, a man whose brief political experience to this point largely consists of running interference during the chaotic mayoralty of his brother."
As well, in 2013, the Globe reported the results their 18-month investigation into the Ford family's history of dealing drugs. According to the Globe, Doug Ford sold hashish for about seven years.
Later in 2013, John Stackhouse, the Globe's Editor-in-Chief, defended the paper's decision to publish the story before the Ontario Press Council. In his statement to the Council, Stackhouse mentioned, among other things:
"[T]he drug trade had been a part of the lives of Doug Ford and his siblings, and that they were known for that amongst their peer group in central Etobicoke. Given the serious public concern about drug trafficking in Toronto, and given Doug Ford's own statements against the drug trade, we felt this information was irrefutably in the public interest."
"[T]he story of the Ford family is more complex than the family itself has promoted, and that the facts of that story pose questions about their independence to take on the drug trade."
"[T]he focal point of our investigation was never the recreational use of drugs or some fleeting misjudgment of youth, as has been suggested by the participants, perhaps as a way of diverting critical public attention; this was about a serious and sustained commercial activity, something most of us associate with criminals."
"[T]he facts printed in the Globe could be corroborated only through anonymous sources, and was done so through extraordinary and extensive interviewing by our staff and lawyers."
posted by New Frontier at 10:40 AM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
Let us not forget that as if to underline the second-time-as-farce aspects of this election
Or all the strangeness with the selection process (or lack of one) of PC candidates in many ridings.
posted by Ashwagandha at 11:26 AM on June 5, 2018
Or all the strangeness with the selection process (or lack of one) of PC candidates in many ridings.
posted by Ashwagandha at 11:26 AM on June 5, 2018
This election is profoundly depressing. There is a strong possibility that Doug Ford will be given the keys to the province of Ontario. Given his lack of a concrete platform, he will interpret it as a license to do whatever the hell he wants. Ugh.
One insight that I had: Ford and his fans use the word "elites" the same way that some people in my suburban Toronto junior high school used to refer to "keeners" or "browners" - anybody with ideas, intelligence, or non-conformist attitudes is someone to be scorned and mocked.
posted by tallmiddleagedgeek at 11:54 AM on June 5, 2018 [8 favorites]
One insight that I had: Ford and his fans use the word "elites" the same way that some people in my suburban Toronto junior high school used to refer to "keeners" or "browners" - anybody with ideas, intelligence, or non-conformist attitudes is someone to be scorned and mocked.
posted by tallmiddleagedgeek at 11:54 AM on June 5, 2018 [8 favorites]
I have a feeling Ford will fight these charges from Renata in the same court where he sued the Globe and Mail.
posted by The Card Cheat at 12:03 PM on June 5, 2018
posted by The Card Cheat at 12:03 PM on June 5, 2018
Garth Turner - no fan of "socialists" - described Doug Ford as "a Tory with the personality of a DeWalt cordless."
I don't know what that means, but it sounds about right.
posted by clawsoon at 12:08 PM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
I don't know what that means, but it sounds about right.
posted by clawsoon at 12:08 PM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
I live in Dundas West, Beardman, and come on, you're basing your conclusion on a conversation between two people. I don't believe for one minute that the PC candidate will win here.
Oh yeah, no, I didn't mean that the PCs will win Parkdale! I guess my comment's import was misleading; I was just surprised to encounter that in that neighbourhood.
It's not an unusual viewpoint to hear at a Dundas West gas station. Lest we forget, this is a common commute for suburban folks who live in Etobicoke and Mississauga, including the late Rob Ford who could be seen and chatted with at the Dundas West LCBO regularly. Those gas stations, and those automobile lanes, are not the Dundas West neighbourhood; they are suburban intrusions into and through that neighbourhood.
posted by tapesonthefloor at 12:18 PM on June 5, 2018 [5 favorites]
Oh yeah, no, I didn't mean that the PCs will win Parkdale! I guess my comment's import was misleading; I was just surprised to encounter that in that neighbourhood.
It's not an unusual viewpoint to hear at a Dundas West gas station. Lest we forget, this is a common commute for suburban folks who live in Etobicoke and Mississauga, including the late Rob Ford who could be seen and chatted with at the Dundas West LCBO regularly. Those gas stations, and those automobile lanes, are not the Dundas West neighbourhood; they are suburban intrusions into and through that neighbourhood.
posted by tapesonthefloor at 12:18 PM on June 5, 2018 [5 favorites]
Wilfrid Laurier University's Institute for the Study of Public Opinion and Policy (LISPOP) has been projecting seats for each party based on its weighting and blending of polls taken by several research firms.
LISPOP uses a "regional swing model" for its projections. A discussion of the methodology that went into developing the model is described here.
According to LISPOP, "In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963."
Its projections are ongoing and are updated to reflect the release of new survey results.
For those interesting in influencing the outcome of Thursday’s election, what follows is a comprehensive list of ridings that, according to LISPOP, are in play.
As of 3:30 p.m. today (Tuesday, June 5), LISPOP projects that the following ridings were "too close to call" (that is, no party had greater than a 5% lead):
Ajax
Cambridge
Chatham-Kent-Leamington
Don Valley East
Don Valley North
Don Valley West
Durham
Eglinton-Lawrence
Etobicoke North
Guelph
Kitchener South-Hespler
Mississauga Centre
Mississauga East-Cooksville
Mississauga-Erin Mills
Mississauga-Malton
Orleans
Ottawa Centre
Peterborough-Kawartha
Toronto Centre
University-Rosedale
Scarborough-Guildwood
Scarborough North
Ridings that are leaning Conservative (that is, where, according to LISPOP, they have a lead between 5-10%) are:
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill
Bay of Quinte
Elgin-Middlesex-London
Etobicoke Centre
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Flamborough-Granbrook
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Huron-Bruce
Kitchener-Conestoga
Markham-Stouffville
Markham-Thornhill
Mississauga-Lakeshore
Mississauga-Streetsville
Nipissing
Northumberland-Peterborough South
Ottawa South
Pickering-Uxbridge
Scarborough-Agincourt
Whitby
Willowdale
York Centre
Most of these ridings are in Toronto, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Southwestern Ontario.
Ridings that, according to LISPOP, are leaning towards the New Democratic Party are:
Brampton Centre
Brampton North
Brampton South
Brampton West
Brantford-Brant
Humber River-Black Creek
Kitchener Centre
Sarnia-Lambton
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough-Rouge Park
Scarborough Southwest
St. Catharines
Ridings that, according to LISPOP, are leaning towards the Liberals are:
Ottawa-Vanier
Toronto-St. Paul's
Vaughan-Woodbridge
LISPOP says that the NDP and Conservatives have solid leads in all the other ridings.
LISPOP's map is available here. (Please note that it may take 10 or more seconds to load.)
posted by New Frontier at 12:33 PM on June 5, 2018 [5 favorites]
LISPOP uses a "regional swing model" for its projections. A discussion of the methodology that went into developing the model is described here.
According to LISPOP, "In tests for past elections, using late campaign polls to project electoral outcomes, the model has proved to be accurate within an average of four seats per party since 1963."
Its projections are ongoing and are updated to reflect the release of new survey results.
For those interesting in influencing the outcome of Thursday’s election, what follows is a comprehensive list of ridings that, according to LISPOP, are in play.
As of 3:30 p.m. today (Tuesday, June 5), LISPOP projects that the following ridings were "too close to call" (that is, no party had greater than a 5% lead):
Ajax
Cambridge
Chatham-Kent-Leamington
Don Valley East
Don Valley North
Don Valley West
Durham
Eglinton-Lawrence
Etobicoke North
Guelph
Kitchener South-Hespler
Mississauga Centre
Mississauga East-Cooksville
Mississauga-Erin Mills
Mississauga-Malton
Orleans
Ottawa Centre
Peterborough-Kawartha
Toronto Centre
University-Rosedale
Scarborough-Guildwood
Scarborough North
Ridings that are leaning Conservative (that is, where, according to LISPOP, they have a lead between 5-10%) are:
Aurora-Oak Ridges-Richmond Hill
Bay of Quinte
Elgin-Middlesex-London
Etobicoke Centre
Etobicoke-Lakeshore
Flamborough-Granbrook
Glengarry-Prescott-Russell
Hamilton West-Ancaster-Dundas
Huron-Bruce
Kitchener-Conestoga
Markham-Stouffville
Markham-Thornhill
Mississauga-Lakeshore
Mississauga-Streetsville
Nipissing
Northumberland-Peterborough South
Ottawa South
Pickering-Uxbridge
Scarborough-Agincourt
Whitby
Willowdale
York Centre
Most of these ridings are in Toronto, the Greater Toronto Area (GTA) and Southwestern Ontario.
Ridings that, according to LISPOP, are leaning towards the New Democratic Party are:
Brampton Centre
Brampton North
Brampton South
Brampton West
Brantford-Brant
Humber River-Black Creek
Kitchener Centre
Sarnia-Lambton
Scarborough Centre
Scarborough-Rouge Park
Scarborough Southwest
St. Catharines
Ridings that, according to LISPOP, are leaning towards the Liberals are:
Ottawa-Vanier
Toronto-St. Paul's
Vaughan-Woodbridge
LISPOP says that the NDP and Conservatives have solid leads in all the other ridings.
LISPOP's map is available here. (Please note that it may take 10 or more seconds to load.)
posted by New Frontier at 12:33 PM on June 5, 2018 [5 favorites]
Garth Turner also used the word “shrill” to describe Andrea Horwath.
posted by The Card Cheat at 12:54 PM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by The Card Cheat at 12:54 PM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
I once used Garth Turner's face on a card for a friend - styled after one of those "for the cost of just two cups of coffee each month, you could save..." donation appeals - which read something like, "By playing just two Ani DiFranco songs in the financial district every month, you could save this man, or someone like him, from becoming totally evil."
posted by clawsoon at 1:00 PM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 1:00 PM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
I read about Garth Turner too often in Frank Magazine to take him as an authority on anything.
posted by Capt. Renault at 1:36 PM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Capt. Renault at 1:36 PM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
As of 3:30 p.m. today (Tuesday, June 5), LISPOP projects that the following ridings were "too close to call" (that is, no party had greater than a 5% lead):
Though I live in a deep blue riding, I will take some solace that a friend of mine, a first-time NDP candidate, is in a too-close-to-call race. Yay!
posted by ricochet biscuit at 2:16 PM on June 5, 2018
Though I live in a deep blue riding, I will take some solace that a friend of mine, a first-time NDP candidate, is in a too-close-to-call race. Yay!
posted by ricochet biscuit at 2:16 PM on June 5, 2018
And is in a too-close-to-call race against a prominent cabinet minister. Double yay!
posted by ricochet biscuit at 2:19 PM on June 5, 2018
posted by ricochet biscuit at 2:19 PM on June 5, 2018
Though I live in a deep blue riding...
What does this mean in Canada? Conservative?
posted by rokusan at 2:35 PM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
What does this mean in Canada? Conservative?
posted by rokusan at 2:35 PM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
Blue: Conservative
Red: Liberal
Orange: NDP
Green: Green
There's a reason Canada's flag is all red. The (federal) Liberals pulled a fast one to get just their colour on the flag.
posted by clawsoon at 2:38 PM on June 5, 2018
Red: Liberal
Orange: NDP
Green: Green
There's a reason Canada's flag is all red. The (federal) Liberals pulled a fast one to get just their colour on the flag.
posted by clawsoon at 2:38 PM on June 5, 2018
There's a reason Canada's flag is all red. The (federal) Liberals pulled a fast one to get just their colour on the flag.
Well, I mean... thank goodness it was them and not the Conservatives, otherwise we'd have a Toronto Maple Leafs logo for a flag
posted by oulipian at 2:47 PM on June 5, 2018 [8 favorites]
Well, I mean... thank goodness it was them and not the Conservatives, otherwise we'd have a Toronto Maple Leafs logo for a flag
posted by oulipian at 2:47 PM on June 5, 2018 [8 favorites]
Kitteh: "Man, I know US news outlets are for shit these days, but surely they can grab a better hot take than immediately comparing Ford to Trump."
In fairness, Wynne has explicitly said they were alike.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:56 PM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
In fairness, Wynne has explicitly said they were alike.
posted by Chrysostom at 2:56 PM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
How the HELL can you have a first-past-the-post system work with three major parties? After the Harper years how can reforming this system not be the absolute #1 priority of the non-conservative parties? The Liberals can fucking wear this outcome, and they can wear it when the same thing happens at the federal level.
posted by moorooka at 3:53 PM on June 5, 2018
posted by moorooka at 3:53 PM on June 5, 2018
I don't argue with the Trump/Ford comparison at all. There are a lot of similarities. Toronto Star reporter Daniel Dale used to cover city hall when Rob Ford was mayor, and is now Washington correspondent, and I have seen tweets of his that said that the parallels are astonishing.
posted by orange swan at 3:55 PM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by orange swan at 3:55 PM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
moorooka: How the HELL can you have a first-past-the-post system work with three major parties? After the Harper years how can reforming this system not be the absolute #1 priority of the non-conservative parties?
Most FPTP systems have more than two parties. It gives them all the dream that their turn to hold sole power will come one of these days.
posted by clawsoon at 4:11 PM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
Most FPTP systems have more than two parties. It gives them all the dream that their turn to hold sole power will come one of these days.
posted by clawsoon at 4:11 PM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
I once used Garth Turner's face on a card for a friend
clawsoon, that's pretty funny. I had a good and long laugh at that.
Looking through LISPOP's projections (mentioned above by New Frontier), the fact that Kitchener-Conestoga is leaning conservative made me chuckle. It's been the PCs' since 2011, a fellow named Michael Harris (no relationship to Mike Harris former Tory premier of Ontario) who has been enormously popular in the area who initially was stepping down due health issues and then was turfed due to sexual misconduct allegations. Doug Ford then shoe horned neophyte Mike Harris Jr. (a failed Froyo franchise owner and actual son of the former Tory premier of Ontario). It is a mixed suburban / rural riding and I'd wager most people voting wouldn't have known either way that they weren't voting for their favorite Mike Harris.
posted by Ashwagandha at 4:20 PM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
clawsoon, that's pretty funny. I had a good and long laugh at that.
Looking through LISPOP's projections (mentioned above by New Frontier), the fact that Kitchener-Conestoga is leaning conservative made me chuckle. It's been the PCs' since 2011, a fellow named Michael Harris (no relationship to Mike Harris former Tory premier of Ontario) who has been enormously popular in the area who initially was stepping down due health issues and then was turfed due to sexual misconduct allegations. Doug Ford then shoe horned neophyte Mike Harris Jr. (a failed Froyo franchise owner and actual son of the former Tory premier of Ontario). It is a mixed suburban / rural riding and I'd wager most people voting wouldn't have known either way that they weren't voting for their favorite Mike Harris.
posted by Ashwagandha at 4:20 PM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
In my limited experience (citizen for only 10 years) every time a party puts election reform on their platform, it helps them get elected, then they forget all about it -- or say, in a nasally whining voice, "it's tooo cooomplicaaateed, no one would unnderstaaaaand iiiitt"
Then they get voted out. [ rage ]
posted by seanmpuckett at 4:22 PM on June 5, 2018
Then they get voted out. [ rage ]
posted by seanmpuckett at 4:22 PM on June 5, 2018
As premier, Doug Ford could run roughshod over Toronto, Edward Keenan, Toronto Star, 5 June 2018
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 4:51 PM on June 5, 2018
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 4:51 PM on June 5, 2018
How the HELL can you have a first-past-the-post system work with three major parties? After the Harper years how can reforming this system not be the absolute #1 priority of the non-conservative parties?
Most FPTP systems have more than two parties. It gives them all the dream that their turn to hold sole power will come one of these days.
As well, with a FPTP multi-party system, majority governments typically get elected with 35-45% of the vote. In the last thirty years in Ontario, Rae, Harris, and McGuinty all rose to majorities with 38%, 45%, and 46% of the popular vote; federally, Trudeau’s majority in 2015 was done with a skeench under 40% of the popular vote. (I think the last time that a federal government surpassed 50% was one of Mulroney’s governments in the eighties.). Whatever appetite any party has for changing FPTP evaporates once they reflect that their majority would have been a minority with any other scheme, so it gets quietly shelved.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 4:59 PM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
Most FPTP systems have more than two parties. It gives them all the dream that their turn to hold sole power will come one of these days.
As well, with a FPTP multi-party system, majority governments typically get elected with 35-45% of the vote. In the last thirty years in Ontario, Rae, Harris, and McGuinty all rose to majorities with 38%, 45%, and 46% of the popular vote; federally, Trudeau’s majority in 2015 was done with a skeench under 40% of the popular vote. (I think the last time that a federal government surpassed 50% was one of Mulroney’s governments in the eighties.). Whatever appetite any party has for changing FPTP evaporates once they reflect that their majority would have been a minority with any other scheme, so it gets quietly shelved.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 4:59 PM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
As premier, Doug Ford could run roughshod over Toronto
A lot of my neighbours in 905 and 519 see this as an excellent reason to vote Tory.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 5:02 PM on June 5, 2018 [8 favorites]
A lot of my neighbours in 905 and 519 see this as an excellent reason to vote Tory.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 5:02 PM on June 5, 2018 [8 favorites]
I should probably spend Thursday standing on the corner of random streets in Toronto Centre (my new riding) shouting VOTE! VOTE!!!! But I'm not sure it would do any good.
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:03 PM on June 5, 2018
posted by seanmpuckett at 5:03 PM on June 5, 2018
I think the last time that a federal government surpassed 50% was one of Mulroney’s governments in the eighties.
Mulroney's PCs took 50.03% in 1984. Last time before that was Diefenbaker in 1958 with 53.67%.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:08 PM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
Mulroney's PCs took 50.03% in 1984. Last time before that was Diefenbaker in 1958 with 53.67%.
posted by Chrysostom at 5:08 PM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
I should probably spend Thursday standing on the corner of random streets in Toronto Centre (my new riding) shouting VOTE! VOTE!!!!
If you have the time on Thursday to do that, it's probably not too late to volunteer with a campaign to either help get people to the polls or scrutineer. That's my plan – today and tomorrow, handing out leaflets in my riding for the sitting NDP MPP, then Thursday sitting at a poll all day to make sure that everything is going as it should.
And that's another reason why elections should either be a provincial holiday or held on a weekend – the process relies way too much on a mass of people with time.
posted by frimble at 5:11 PM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
If you have the time on Thursday to do that, it's probably not too late to volunteer with a campaign to either help get people to the polls or scrutineer. That's my plan – today and tomorrow, handing out leaflets in my riding for the sitting NDP MPP, then Thursday sitting at a poll all day to make sure that everything is going as it should.
And that's another reason why elections should either be a provincial holiday or held on a weekend – the process relies way too much on a mass of people with time.
posted by frimble at 5:11 PM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
And that's another reason why elections should either be a provincial holiday or held on a weekend – the process relies way too much on a mass of people with time.
You could have voted in advance at numerous polling stations on May 26,27, 28 ,29 ,30, 31 and June 1 between 10 am and 8 pm
That would have included a Saturday May 26 and a Sunday May 27
Seems like enough time if you really wanted to vote
posted by yyz at 5:20 PM on June 5, 2018
You could have voted in advance at numerous polling stations on May 26,27, 28 ,29 ,30, 31 and June 1 between 10 am and 8 pm
That would have included a Saturday May 26 and a Sunday May 27
Seems like enough time if you really wanted to vote
posted by yyz at 5:20 PM on June 5, 2018
I was referring to scrutineering and other election day volunteering rather than time to vote. Advance voting has definitely become better through my lifetime, but this is the first time I've had a job where I could say, "I won't be around on Thursday, because I'll be sitting at a polling station all day."
posted by frimble at 5:49 PM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by frimble at 5:49 PM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
Things are really desperate in campaignland.
I got robocalled tonight by the incumbent. The robocall was an invitation to stay on the line and listen to a live town hall Q&A with the candidate, and it gave listeners the option to ask questions via the press of a button. Every so often, the listeners would get polled about do they think the MPP did a good job, do they have a preference in the election, etc.
I'll give them credit for trying, although it seems a little too late to be attempting this tactic. It also would have been nice to have been given some warning this was happening and not just had it dropped into my lap unexpectedly. I don't know how long it lasted, as my phone died about 20 minutes into the call. I will say the questions seemed genuine (they definitely weren't fluff) and were actually pretty on-point, all things considered.
posted by sardonyx at 7:28 PM on June 5, 2018
I got robocalled tonight by the incumbent. The robocall was an invitation to stay on the line and listen to a live town hall Q&A with the candidate, and it gave listeners the option to ask questions via the press of a button. Every so often, the listeners would get polled about do they think the MPP did a good job, do they have a preference in the election, etc.
I'll give them credit for trying, although it seems a little too late to be attempting this tactic. It also would have been nice to have been given some warning this was happening and not just had it dropped into my lap unexpectedly. I don't know how long it lasted, as my phone died about 20 minutes into the call. I will say the questions seemed genuine (they definitely weren't fluff) and were actually pretty on-point, all things considered.
posted by sardonyx at 7:28 PM on June 5, 2018
At this point, I'm hoping against hope that the NDP squeaks out a minority and that the Liberals won't immediately rush to make a deal with the Tories. But given their recent campaigning ("The only voting strategy that can stop Ford is a Liberal vote" in a riding where the PCs are probably well behind, and this bullshit), and their absolutely infuriating and duplicitous fucking over of Toronto transit, the Liberals can sit in the provincial naughty chair for a few fucking cycles.
posted by maudlin at 7:36 PM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
But behind-the-scenes, Murray was already backing a subway and the Liberals were influencing a council process that would undo the LRT they had agreed to build, according to internal emails newly-obtained through a freedom of information request. In doing so, the province ignored expert advice that a subway was not justified and pressured what is meant to be the arms-length transit agency to endorse a subway in spite of the agency’s backing of an LRT.(I know, I know: Ford is WAY worse. And if the NDP was out of the running, I'd vote Liberal, but I wouldn't have any tooth enamel left once I marked my ballot.)
The emails from the premier’s office, taken together with emails earlier obtained by the Star from the provincial transit agency Metrolinx, as well as records released to and detailed by journalist John Lorinc in a five-part Spacing investigation and recent interviews, offer a clear picture of how a more than billion-dollar transit project nearing construction was cancelled.
posted by maudlin at 7:36 PM on June 5, 2018 [3 favorites]
my new riding's NDP candidate just sounded off about how public school teachers should be prepared to take a 15% pay cut. Yeah.
I mean, public school teachers in Ontario make shitloads of money, but it's because their union is so powerful, so good luck with that.
But no, because he was the big smart man and I was just the dumb woman who opened the door, he had to explain to me what an election was.
Dude, seriously? He was probably instructed to try lines like that on everybody because if you haven't noticed, voter engagement is absolute shit. Every time I've done door-knocking type gigs we were given talking points, suggestions, even straight-up scripts, I really doubt it had anything to do with you personally.
Anyways, this election is balls, Rob Ford is going to win and hopefully he'll just sit around leeching off taxpayers and not making too many decisions, which is marginally better than leeching off taxpayers and making shitty decisions, I guess? I think people are going to vote for him because they're sick of Trudeau and for some reason Ontarions seem to have a habit of voting provincially against what they dislike federally. Probably because our voting system is balls too.
posted by windykites at 8:23 PM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
I mean, public school teachers in Ontario make shitloads of money, but it's because their union is so powerful, so good luck with that.
But no, because he was the big smart man and I was just the dumb woman who opened the door, he had to explain to me what an election was.
Dude, seriously? He was probably instructed to try lines like that on everybody because if you haven't noticed, voter engagement is absolute shit. Every time I've done door-knocking type gigs we were given talking points, suggestions, even straight-up scripts, I really doubt it had anything to do with you personally.
Anyways, this election is balls, Rob Ford is going to win and hopefully he'll just sit around leeching off taxpayers and not making too many decisions, which is marginally better than leeching off taxpayers and making shitty decisions, I guess? I think people are going to vote for him because they're sick of Trudeau and for some reason Ontarions seem to have a habit of voting provincially against what they dislike federally. Probably because our voting system is balls too.
posted by windykites at 8:23 PM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
Ontario had a Citizens Assembly on Electoral Reform in 2006 with a referendumb in 2007 under Liberal Premier McGuinty. It was a farking shite show, a rigged scam. As mentioned above, incumbent governments hate electoral reforms, so who is going to really support it once in office? And that's partly why there's so much voter apathy. I voted in advance poll for a candidate that I don't feel much enthusiasm for, but who cares? Stupid people, that's who. Idiots voting for fucking idiots, they care. Argh.
posted by ovvl at 8:38 PM on June 5, 2018
posted by ovvl at 8:38 PM on June 5, 2018
for some reason Ontarions seem to have a habit of voting provincially against what they dislike federally
That is an interesting way to frame it: I tend to think that it is relatively rare to have the same party on power in Queen’s Park and in Ottawa. I haven’t made systematic study but just in my lifetime I recall the big spans of the provincial Tories (Bill Davis) against the federal Liberals (Trudeau père), shifting in the early eighties to Peterson (then Rae) while Mulroney was PM. This swung back in the mid-nineties to Harris provincially counterposed against Chretien federally. The last decade and change was mostly McGuinty/Wynne in Queen’s Park while Harper was PM, so that, alas suggests Doug is in for a win on Thursday while Trudeau fils slowly (or not) accrues enough resentment to get voted out at some point.
I am about to hit the sack and am too drowsy to go check Wikipedia, but I think this last twenty months of Trudeau and Wynne is the longest stretch in fifty years of the federal and provincial levels of the party holding both offices.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:45 PM on June 5, 2018 [5 favorites]
That is an interesting way to frame it: I tend to think that it is relatively rare to have the same party on power in Queen’s Park and in Ottawa. I haven’t made systematic study but just in my lifetime I recall the big spans of the provincial Tories (Bill Davis) against the federal Liberals (Trudeau père), shifting in the early eighties to Peterson (then Rae) while Mulroney was PM. This swung back in the mid-nineties to Harris provincially counterposed against Chretien federally. The last decade and change was mostly McGuinty/Wynne in Queen’s Park while Harper was PM, so that, alas suggests Doug is in for a win on Thursday while Trudeau fils slowly (or not) accrues enough resentment to get voted out at some point.
I am about to hit the sack and am too drowsy to go check Wikipedia, but I think this last twenty months of Trudeau and Wynne is the longest stretch in fifty years of the federal and provincial levels of the party holding both offices.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:45 PM on June 5, 2018 [5 favorites]
As mentioned above, incumbent governments hate electoral reforms, so who is going to really support it once in office?
A minority government coalition with a third party holding the balance of power. “We will support your legislation on x and y if you do this to ensure that we get at least some say in things after the next election.” I can’t see that any other set-up leads to it.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:48 PM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
A minority government coalition with a third party holding the balance of power. “We will support your legislation on x and y if you do this to ensure that we get at least some say in things after the next election.” I can’t see that any other set-up leads to it.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:48 PM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
Not to abuse the edit window, but I think in a slightly better world, Jack Layton would have brought this to us federally.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:50 PM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:50 PM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
The fact that the liberals don’t persue electoral reform when they get the chance is evidence that they prefer having the right in charge to sharing power with the left. They are enablers.
posted by moorooka at 9:24 PM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by moorooka at 9:24 PM on June 5, 2018 [6 favorites]
That Text You Got From Ontario Proud Is Part Of A Voter ID Campaign
Anecdotally, I'll say that about a week ago I got some weirdo text that I immediately deleted as spam, that was something like (very much paraphrasing here) "Hey, this it Olivia. Do you think she's hot? BTW, have you already voted?"
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:25 PM on June 5, 2018
Anecdotally, I'll say that about a week ago I got some weirdo text that I immediately deleted as spam, that was something like (very much paraphrasing here) "Hey, this it Olivia. Do you think she's hot? BTW, have you already voted?"
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:25 PM on June 5, 2018
The Globe and Mail's editorial board has just published its clearest statement yet that it won't endorse any of the three major parties. In doing so, it slammed Doug Ford in the harshest terms. Some excerpts:
"Mr. Ford is unfit to be premier. No one should be fooled by his performance in the election campaign - a tightly scripted production built around a series of populist slogans recited off a teleprompter, followed by curt Q&As with reporters kept at a safe distance."
"We all know this populist chancer too well. Unleashed by the constraints of the campaign, Mr. Ford will return to the form we remember from Toronto's experience."
"When Rob Ford was mayor and his brother Doug was de facto deputy mayor, there was political chaos, lies and evasions, attacks on the press, and content-free ranting virtually every day. And that was before the crack scandal that enveloped Rob Ford."
"When Doug Ford ran for mayor in 2014, he made numerous false claims and misleading statements on the campaign trail."
"It defies recent experience to believe that a person like that will be moderated by high office."
"Mr. Ford has furthermore failed to explain how he will pay for his many promised tax cuts. He is no fiscal conservative."
"And then there is the fact a 2013 Globe and Mail investigation revealed that Mr. Ford was a drug dealer as a young man, something he denies. The news this week of open warfare among the Ford family over his late brother's estate is more proof the man is a magnet for chaos."
"Beyond his unfitness for the job of premier, Mr. Ford can't be relied upon to tend to the PC Party's ongoing structural problems and rampant infighting."
"We rule Mr. Ford out."
posted by New Frontier at 10:00 PM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
"Mr. Ford is unfit to be premier. No one should be fooled by his performance in the election campaign - a tightly scripted production built around a series of populist slogans recited off a teleprompter, followed by curt Q&As with reporters kept at a safe distance."
"We all know this populist chancer too well. Unleashed by the constraints of the campaign, Mr. Ford will return to the form we remember from Toronto's experience."
"When Rob Ford was mayor and his brother Doug was de facto deputy mayor, there was political chaos, lies and evasions, attacks on the press, and content-free ranting virtually every day. And that was before the crack scandal that enveloped Rob Ford."
"When Doug Ford ran for mayor in 2014, he made numerous false claims and misleading statements on the campaign trail."
"It defies recent experience to believe that a person like that will be moderated by high office."
"Mr. Ford has furthermore failed to explain how he will pay for his many promised tax cuts. He is no fiscal conservative."
"And then there is the fact a 2013 Globe and Mail investigation revealed that Mr. Ford was a drug dealer as a young man, something he denies. The news this week of open warfare among the Ford family over his late brother's estate is more proof the man is a magnet for chaos."
"Beyond his unfitness for the job of premier, Mr. Ford can't be relied upon to tend to the PC Party's ongoing structural problems and rampant infighting."
"We rule Mr. Ford out."
posted by New Frontier at 10:00 PM on June 5, 2018 [4 favorites]
The Globe and Mail's editorial board has just published its clearest statement yet that it won't endorse any of the three major parties. In doing so, it slammed Doug Ford in the harshest terms.
They also said they would love to fuck the poorest in the province while prostrating themselves before the most obscenely wealthy among us:
We rule Mr. Ford out. But our conundrum is that, after doing so, we see no other platform or leader we can endorse.
The Liberals have forfeited consideration, thanks to Ms. Wynne’s early concession. Which is fine. Ms. Wynne oversaw a party that abandoned fiscal restraint, not to mention honest bookkeeping. She leaves a legacy of debt, ethical misrule and outrageously high hydro bills, and her cynicism in no small way has fed the appetite for Mr. Ford’s populism.
The NDP is a problem of another kind. Ms. Horwath has campaigned on a platform that has the value of being true to her party’s beliefs. It is filled with new spending on social programs, paid for by deficit spending combined with higher taxes on the wealthy and a higher corporate-tax rate.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:27 PM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
They also said they would love to fuck the poorest in the province while prostrating themselves before the most obscenely wealthy among us:
We rule Mr. Ford out. But our conundrum is that, after doing so, we see no other platform or leader we can endorse.
The Liberals have forfeited consideration, thanks to Ms. Wynne’s early concession. Which is fine. Ms. Wynne oversaw a party that abandoned fiscal restraint, not to mention honest bookkeeping. She leaves a legacy of debt, ethical misrule and outrageously high hydro bills, and her cynicism in no small way has fed the appetite for Mr. Ford’s populism.
The NDP is a problem of another kind. Ms. Horwath has campaigned on a platform that has the value of being true to her party’s beliefs. It is filled with new spending on social programs, paid for by deficit spending combined with higher taxes on the wealthy and a higher corporate-tax rate.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:27 PM on June 5, 2018 [1 favorite]
And, not to abuse the edit window, I say this as someone who is a member of no political party.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:29 PM on June 5, 2018
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 10:29 PM on June 5, 2018
“Harshest terms” my ass. We don’t like fascists but we can’t endorse the alternative. That’s basically an endorsement.
posted by moorooka at 11:01 PM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by moorooka at 11:01 PM on June 5, 2018 [2 favorites]
Imagine the Globe's endorsement if Patrick Brown had still been the PC leader.
posted by clawsoon at 4:58 AM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by clawsoon at 4:58 AM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
The Globe and Mail tried to split the baby during the last federal election as well, saying that the Conservatives should be re-elected but Stephen Harper shouldn't. Even though it's theoretically possible, it's an utterly spineless and useless position to take.
posted by The Notorious SRD at 5:59 AM on June 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by The Notorious SRD at 5:59 AM on June 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Dude, seriously? He was probably instructed to try lines like that on everybody because if you haven't noticed, voter engagement is absolute shit. Every time I've done door-knocking type gigs we were given talking points, suggestions, even straight-up scripts, I really doubt it had anything to do with you personally.
Anyways, this election is balls, Rob Ford is going to win and hopefully he'll just sit around leeching off taxpayers and not making too many decisions, which is marginally better than leeching off taxpayers and making shitty decisions, I guess? I think people are going to vote for him because they're sick of Trudeau and for some reason Ontarions seem to have a habit of voting provincially against what they dislike federally. Probably because our voting system is balls too.
posted by windykites at 8:23 PM on June 5
Well, it certainly felt personal. Even if it wasn't personal, or gendered, it certainly was insulting. I can't imagine why any campaign would tell its volunteers that the best way to engage with people is to assume they are dumb and uninformed. Yes, I realize that voter turnout is low and not everybody is as politically engaged as the people posting here, but this just feels like playing with fire.
posted by sardonyx at 7:11 AM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Anyways, this election is balls, Rob Ford is going to win and hopefully he'll just sit around leeching off taxpayers and not making too many decisions, which is marginally better than leeching off taxpayers and making shitty decisions, I guess? I think people are going to vote for him because they're sick of Trudeau and for some reason Ontarions seem to have a habit of voting provincially against what they dislike federally. Probably because our voting system is balls too.
posted by windykites at 8:23 PM on June 5
Well, it certainly felt personal. Even if it wasn't personal, or gendered, it certainly was insulting. I can't imagine why any campaign would tell its volunteers that the best way to engage with people is to assume they are dumb and uninformed. Yes, I realize that voter turnout is low and not everybody is as politically engaged as the people posting here, but this just feels like playing with fire.
posted by sardonyx at 7:11 AM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
“Harshest terms” my ass. We don’t like fascists but we can’t endorse the alternative. That’s basically an endorsement.
I know we're trying to avoid lazy Ford-Trump comparisons, but this is pretty much exactly what every high profile Republican did in October 2016, announcing in high-minded terms that they couldn't support Trump but then refusing to endorse the alternative. It's utterly meaningless and it's cowardly. If Ford takes power, it will take the Globe approximately 0.3 seconds to get on board with whatever he wants to do to the province.
posted by saturday_morning at 7:12 AM on June 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
I know we're trying to avoid lazy Ford-Trump comparisons, but this is pretty much exactly what every high profile Republican did in October 2016, announcing in high-minded terms that they couldn't support Trump but then refusing to endorse the alternative. It's utterly meaningless and it's cowardly. If Ford takes power, it will take the Globe approximately 0.3 seconds to get on board with whatever he wants to do to the province.
posted by saturday_morning at 7:12 AM on June 6, 2018 [3 favorites]
PC candidate Raymond Cho apologizes over physical altercation with Grade 7 student outside Scarborough school
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 7:16 AM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 7:16 AM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
That kid was no angel.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:02 AM on June 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:02 AM on June 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Of the two, the PCs have the biggest leadership problem. It’s unlikely any premier has ever been less qualified than Doug Ford. He appears to barely understand how government operates, has only the shallowest grasp of major issues, gives every indication of being badly out of his depth and shows no interest in learning. His approach to campaigning is to shout slogans and talk over challengers. He’s a poor debater, a bad speaker and has trouble explaining himself.
"But, you know, vote for him anyway."
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:14 AM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
"But, you know, vote for him anyway."
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:14 AM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
"But, you know, vote for him anyway."
"It’s which will do the least damage to the province, hurt fewer people, and have the least harmful impact over the long term?"
He asked the right question, anyway.
posted by clawsoon at 8:20 AM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
"It’s which will do the least damage to the province, hurt fewer people, and have the least harmful impact over the long term?"
He asked the right question, anyway.
posted by clawsoon at 8:20 AM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
People in Canada seem to forget that the National Post is far from a 'paper of record'.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 8:50 AM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 8:50 AM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Not everyone will see [Ford's] flexibility as an asset. But it’s arguably preferable to the doctrinaire rigidity of Horwath, who seems intent on imposing left-wing dogma, or go broke trying.
Oh, I don't know. Looking at the Dippers' last couple of campaigns, I think there's a doctrinal flexibility there. :/
posted by Capt. Renault at 9:19 AM on June 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Oh, I don't know. Looking at the Dippers' last couple of campaigns, I think there's a doctrinal flexibility there. :/
posted by Capt. Renault at 9:19 AM on June 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Even if it wasn't personal, or gendered, it certainly was insulting.
I wonder if you and I are really different demographics or something. It's good that you let this guy know that you didn't like his approach, but I personally wouldn't find this insulting and I don't think my cohort would either; I thought it sounded funny, tongue-in-cheek kinda thing. Like, nobody will shut up about the election.
They also said they would love to fuck the poorest in the province while prostrating themselves before the most obscenely wealthy among us:
I think that's an uncharitable characterisation. It's not unreasonable to think Horwath's proposed plan is unrealistic at best and irresponsible at worst. You can care about people and still be concerned about fiscal responsibility. They're not talking about "fucking the poor", in my opinion.
posted by windykites at 10:05 AM on June 6, 2018
I wonder if you and I are really different demographics or something. It's good that you let this guy know that you didn't like his approach, but I personally wouldn't find this insulting and I don't think my cohort would either; I thought it sounded funny, tongue-in-cheek kinda thing. Like, nobody will shut up about the election.
They also said they would love to fuck the poorest in the province while prostrating themselves before the most obscenely wealthy among us:
I think that's an uncharitable characterisation. It's not unreasonable to think Horwath's proposed plan is unrealistic at best and irresponsible at worst. You can care about people and still be concerned about fiscal responsibility. They're not talking about "fucking the poor", in my opinion.
posted by windykites at 10:05 AM on June 6, 2018
So I mentioned sardonyx's story to my wife, saying "Can you believe that?" She said "Well I can because I actually had something similar happen to me!"
So my wife was helping a neighbour out, a few blocks away, by watching her infant while the mum ran some errands the other afternoon. Now on the front door there is a large & very clear sign which states that the baby is sleeping please don't knock loudly or ring the bell. So... while the baby is sleeping, a pair of PC party guys lean in on the door bell. The baby wakes upset and crying. My wife picks up the baby and answers the door.
Two men, one in his 30's and the other in his 50s, the older man says "Is the man of the house home?" My wife looks at him not really believing what he's asking. "Excuse me?" she says. "We're from the PC party and we're wondering if we could speak with the, you know, the home owner about the election. Because we'd like to talk to him about the election." My wife, flabbergasted by this, asks if they saw the sign on the door about not ringing the bell. They say they did and ask if they could hold the baby. My wife says "no" and calls them on asking for the man of the house. The older man responds "Oh I was just 'joking'." My wife began to get angry with them but thought better of it and closed the door on them. A few seconds later they proceeded to bang on the door loudly. My wife answers the door again. The older man says with a shit eating grin, "You didn't take any of our literature." My wife tells them to go away and she closes the door again on them. And they proceed to pound on the door again. This time my wife went into the backyard to try and mellow herself and the baby out. They proceeded to bang on the door for a minute or two but eventually gave up and put their literature on the car.
Yeah misogynistic "jokes" are never funny and a strange way to win votes.
You can care about people and still be concerned about fiscal responsibility.
I remember very clearly the Mike Harris years and I know enough about Doug Ford's attitudes and behaviour as a city councillor - to say that Doug Ford and his party "care about people and [are] still... concerned about fiscal responsibility" is at best overly generous. First in line for Ford's "efficiencies" will be many of the social programmes that help the most marginalised in our communities. Next will be reductions in funds for programmes to remote and rural areas. Why? Because that's what the last "common sense" "fiscally responsible" party did and very little in the actions of this version of the party have indicated that they will do any different.
posted by Ashwagandha at 10:44 AM on June 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
So my wife was helping a neighbour out, a few blocks away, by watching her infant while the mum ran some errands the other afternoon. Now on the front door there is a large & very clear sign which states that the baby is sleeping please don't knock loudly or ring the bell. So... while the baby is sleeping, a pair of PC party guys lean in on the door bell. The baby wakes upset and crying. My wife picks up the baby and answers the door.
Two men, one in his 30's and the other in his 50s, the older man says "Is the man of the house home?" My wife looks at him not really believing what he's asking. "Excuse me?" she says. "We're from the PC party and we're wondering if we could speak with the, you know, the home owner about the election. Because we'd like to talk to him about the election." My wife, flabbergasted by this, asks if they saw the sign on the door about not ringing the bell. They say they did and ask if they could hold the baby. My wife says "no" and calls them on asking for the man of the house. The older man responds "Oh I was just 'joking'." My wife began to get angry with them but thought better of it and closed the door on them. A few seconds later they proceeded to bang on the door loudly. My wife answers the door again. The older man says with a shit eating grin, "You didn't take any of our literature." My wife tells them to go away and she closes the door again on them. And they proceed to pound on the door again. This time my wife went into the backyard to try and mellow herself and the baby out. They proceeded to bang on the door for a minute or two but eventually gave up and put their literature on the car.
Yeah misogynistic "jokes" are never funny and a strange way to win votes.
You can care about people and still be concerned about fiscal responsibility.
I remember very clearly the Mike Harris years and I know enough about Doug Ford's attitudes and behaviour as a city councillor - to say that Doug Ford and his party "care about people and [are] still... concerned about fiscal responsibility" is at best overly generous. First in line for Ford's "efficiencies" will be many of the social programmes that help the most marginalised in our communities. Next will be reductions in funds for programmes to remote and rural areas. Why? Because that's what the last "common sense" "fiscally responsible" party did and very little in the actions of this version of the party have indicated that they will do any different.
posted by Ashwagandha at 10:44 AM on June 6, 2018 [15 favorites]
Hearing about your wife's encounter with those [insert appropriate insult here], Ashwagandha just left me livid. I can't imagine how I would have reacted if I had been in her shoes.
It's just a shame they didn't have their noses stuck in the door when she closed it. Can you imagine their shame if the little lady of the house had managed to inflict some physical harm on them? (Yes, I know it's not nice to think about causing somebody pain, but oh boy, those guys certainly deserve to be taught the error of their ways.)
posted by sardonyx at 10:55 AM on June 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
It's just a shame they didn't have their noses stuck in the door when she closed it. Can you imagine their shame if the little lady of the house had managed to inflict some physical harm on them? (Yes, I know it's not nice to think about causing somebody pain, but oh boy, those guys certainly deserve to be taught the error of their ways.)
posted by sardonyx at 10:55 AM on June 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Ashwagandha, it's too bad your wife didn't have a garden hose in-hand.
posted by clawsoon at 10:58 AM on June 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by clawsoon at 10:58 AM on June 6, 2018 [2 favorites]
Looking at the poll trackers today, it looks like Ford got a bump. I wondered the instant I heard about it whether the lawsuit would earn him some last-minute sympathy/conspiracy votes.
On the other hand, CBC's Metro Morning this morning featured at least a couple don't-know-what-to-do Liberals who say they'll make their decision when they're in the voting booth, so who knows which way that will go.
posted by clawsoon at 11:01 AM on June 6, 2018
On the other hand, CBC's Metro Morning this morning featured at least a couple don't-know-what-to-do Liberals who say they'll make their decision when they're in the voting booth, so who knows which way that will go.
posted by clawsoon at 11:01 AM on June 6, 2018
So my inlaws are voting NDP for the first time in their lives (they've been lifelong Liberal voters), but they're in the non-seat-rich northwestern Ontario. Where they are, Doug Ford has apparently been met with a lot of eye-rolling ("Can you believe this fuckin' guy?"), and with the Liberals scuttling the ship, they and others they know have switched their vote to the NDP (their provincial riding covers 92,000 km2, with a population density of less than one person per square km). So there's not a lot of there, there in terms of seats and impact.
I bring that up because what we're hearing from our peeps up there is that he's viewed as "just another asshole from Toronto," which is kind of amusing because of his anti-"downtown elites" schtick.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 11:12 AM on June 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
I bring that up because what we're hearing from our peeps up there is that he's viewed as "just another asshole from Toronto," which is kind of amusing because of his anti-"downtown elites" schtick.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 11:12 AM on June 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
You can care about people and still be concerned about fiscal responsibility.
The term "fiscal responsibility" is used to mean precisely one thing - reduced government spending, and we know who always suffers when spending is cut.
The NDP plan is the only one proposing revenue increases to pay for new spending programs, in the form of new taxes on incomes over $220,000 and $300,000 and a modest increase in corporate taxes. The only people who would see that as fiscally irresponsible are, well, you should be able to figure that out.
posted by rocket88 at 11:33 AM on June 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
The term "fiscal responsibility" is used to mean precisely one thing - reduced government spending, and we know who always suffers when spending is cut.
The NDP plan is the only one proposing revenue increases to pay for new spending programs, in the form of new taxes on incomes over $220,000 and $300,000 and a modest increase in corporate taxes. The only people who would see that as fiscally irresponsible are, well, you should be able to figure that out.
posted by rocket88 at 11:33 AM on June 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
I wondered the instant I heard about it whether the lawsuit would earn him some last-minute sympathy/conspiracy votes.
Maybe it did. I wouldn't be surprised.
The Star put out some of the basics of the lawsuit, and it doesn't look good for ol' DoFo.
As an Executor, you must provide regular accountings of the estate, particularly for assets held in trust. Have to have to have to. If you don't, you are in Big Shit. And proving whether someone sent out an accounting of the estate is a very simple matter in terms of evidence. There's a mention of a 'one page summary' of estate assets, and that may suffice for a regular Joe Blow estate, but won't cut it for a (multi)million dollar DoFo estate involving a children's trust.
And really, this is the easiest thing to do when you're an Executor. When your accounting guy does the estate's taxes, you take a extra copy of that return, stuff it in an envelope, mail it to the beneficiary and say "Here".
As for the main body of the claim, that corporate shenanigans deprived beneficiaries of their rightful share or devalued their assets held in trust, that's obviously more complicated. But on the simple, easily-proven or disproven matter of performing the required duties of Executor -- there's no talking your way out of that.
posted by Capt. Renault at 11:44 AM on June 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
Maybe it did. I wouldn't be surprised.
The Star put out some of the basics of the lawsuit, and it doesn't look good for ol' DoFo.
As an Executor, you must provide regular accountings of the estate, particularly for assets held in trust. Have to have to have to. If you don't, you are in Big Shit. And proving whether someone sent out an accounting of the estate is a very simple matter in terms of evidence. There's a mention of a 'one page summary' of estate assets, and that may suffice for a regular Joe Blow estate, but won't cut it for a (multi)million dollar DoFo estate involving a children's trust.
And really, this is the easiest thing to do when you're an Executor. When your accounting guy does the estate's taxes, you take a extra copy of that return, stuff it in an envelope, mail it to the beneficiary and say "Here".
As for the main body of the claim, that corporate shenanigans deprived beneficiaries of their rightful share or devalued their assets held in trust, that's obviously more complicated. But on the simple, easily-proven or disproven matter of performing the required duties of Executor -- there's no talking your way out of that.
posted by Capt. Renault at 11:44 AM on June 6, 2018 [5 favorites]
just left me livid. I can't imagine how I would have reacted if I had been in her shoes.
My wife is a very polite small town Southern Ontario woman. Her husband is not... which is why she didn't tell me about it until last night. I can see the article in the local paper if she had: "Area Man screams incoherently in French at local candidates office in the early morning hours. When asked for comment he shouted: "Maudit crisse de câlice de tabarnak d'osti de sacrament!" My inlaws would not be pleased.
"just another asshole from Toronto"
I read about Ford going to TBay. It cracked me up. He's literally the cliché of what a Northerner thinks an asshole carpetbagger from Toronto is like. A lot of the North remembers too many empty liberal promises and all too many Tory cuts...
posted by Ashwagandha at 11:59 AM on June 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
My wife is a very polite small town Southern Ontario woman. Her husband is not... which is why she didn't tell me about it until last night. I can see the article in the local paper if she had: "Area Man screams incoherently in French at local candidates office in the early morning hours. When asked for comment he shouted: "Maudit crisse de câlice de tabarnak d'osti de sacrament!" My inlaws would not be pleased.
"just another asshole from Toronto"
I read about Ford going to TBay. It cracked me up. He's literally the cliché of what a Northerner thinks an asshole carpetbagger from Toronto is like. A lot of the North remembers too many empty liberal promises and all too many Tory cuts...
posted by Ashwagandha at 11:59 AM on June 6, 2018 [11 favorites]
We can at least be grateful that Doug Ford's electoral prospects may be negatively impacted by the fact of his being, somehow, even less likable than Rob.
posted by The Card Cheat at 2:12 PM on June 6, 2018
posted by The Card Cheat at 2:12 PM on June 6, 2018
If one of those competent women up for the OPC leadership had been selected, I could probably muster some understanding for PC stalwarts. But with this Dog Food, an utter incompetent, at the helm? The only excuse for helping to elect him is to stick a fork in the eyes of “libtards.” It’s pure spite. Trumpism.
posted by seanmpuckett at 2:28 PM on June 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 2:28 PM on June 6, 2018 [4 favorites]
I've been listening to a lot of Ontario Today recently and a good chunk of the people who identify as PC voters really do view it as a tribe they belong to. They vote PC and always will regardless of who is running the party and what they plan on doing. I don't get it myself. Politicians make compromises in order to advance their goals, I would think their supporters would do similar and seek out a different party if the one they nominally supported wasn't working out for them.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 2:53 PM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 2:53 PM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
fiscal responsibility
In Canada, there is a long and well-respected tradition that "fiscal responsibility" means "increase debt by cutting taxes."
posted by clawsoon at 3:56 PM on June 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
In Canada, there is a long and well-respected tradition that "fiscal responsibility" means "increase debt by cutting taxes."
posted by clawsoon at 3:56 PM on June 6, 2018 [8 favorites]
I could see the 'secret election' opening being a jab at the media environment and not necessarily a misogynist thing, but you were there and so you're the best position to interpret it.
The 'man of the house'.... there is no redeeming that!
Around here the 3 oppositions parties actually signed a document promising electoral reform for a proportional mode if they get elected. One of those is currently polling well enough to form the next government (wouldn't be my choice though), it'll be interesting to see if this promise is followed through.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 4:07 PM on June 6, 2018
The 'man of the house'.... there is no redeeming that!
Around here the 3 oppositions parties actually signed a document promising electoral reform for a proportional mode if they get elected. One of those is currently polling well enough to form the next government (wouldn't be my choice though), it'll be interesting to see if this promise is followed through.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 4:07 PM on June 6, 2018
A co-worker dropped in to our office and she was saying how she was undecided because while Doug Ford sucks her local candidate is really good. I asked her who she thinks is going to have more influence on things, Doug Ford or her local candidate. She sighed and said "I know". I am pretty sure she will be voting PC tomorrow.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 5:21 PM on June 6, 2018
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 5:21 PM on June 6, 2018
Talk in my office was about the NDP being uncompromising hard-core leftists who are going to bankrupt us all. It was all rationalizations to allow them to vote for someone they know is unfit, 'but what can you do?'.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:28 PM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:28 PM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
This campaign isn't over by a long shot. Even with a marked increase in turnout during the advance voting period, nearly 93% of eligible Ontario voters have yet to cast their vote.
Three groups may be crucial in determining the outcome: (1) Liberal supporters considering their options in light of Kathleen Wynne's admission that her party is facing certain defeat; (2) young voters; and (3) women voters.
Liberal Supporters
The day before Wynne's concession speech, the Toronto Star, which in the past tended to endorse the Liberals in both provincial and federal races, instead urged Ontarians to back the NDP this time, reasoning that "given the collapse in Liberal support, the real choice in most parts of the province is between the PCs and [Andrea] Horwath's New Democrats. There, progressive voters should back the NDP candidate to make sure Ford doesn't reach the premier's office." Henry Jacek, political science professor at McMaster University, thinks that many Liberal voters will interpret Wynne's move as "permission for them to vote NDP". Journalist Geoffrey Stevens similarly contends that with her concession, Wynne had intentionally sought to tip the election to the NDP.
That wasn't Wynne's express intent, though, as she had asked voters to elect as many Liberal MPPs as possible to prevent the PCs or the NDP from forming a majority government with what she called "a blank cheque".
This past Monday, the Toronto Star ran an op-ed piece by Dan Rath, a past advisor to former Liberal Premier David Peterson and a consultant to former Prime Minister Jean Chretien's government, in which he urged Liberals to reject Wynne’s appeal and instead vote en masse for the NDP. Some excerpts:
Christo Aivalis points out that this is the first Ontario election in which Millennials comprise a bigger potential voting bloc than Baby Boomers.
Availis notes that while "Boomers are still set to have a bigger electoral footprint because young people tend to vote in lower numbers", that edge can be blunted by the relative ease by which Ontarians can vote. Elections Ontario advises that it is not necessary to register to vote or to have a voter information card on hand to cast a ballot. All that an eligible elector needs to vote is acceptable documentation that proving their identity and address. A wide variety of documents are valid, including some documents from colleges and universities.
As Aivalis puts it:
Women Voters
Doug Ford ranks as the least trustworthy of the four main party leaders among women.
Barry Kay, a political science professor at Wilfrid Laurier University remarks:
posted by New Frontier at 9:01 PM on June 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
Three groups may be crucial in determining the outcome: (1) Liberal supporters considering their options in light of Kathleen Wynne's admission that her party is facing certain defeat; (2) young voters; and (3) women voters.
Liberal Supporters
The day before Wynne's concession speech, the Toronto Star, which in the past tended to endorse the Liberals in both provincial and federal races, instead urged Ontarians to back the NDP this time, reasoning that "given the collapse in Liberal support, the real choice in most parts of the province is between the PCs and [Andrea] Horwath's New Democrats. There, progressive voters should back the NDP candidate to make sure Ford doesn't reach the premier's office." Henry Jacek, political science professor at McMaster University, thinks that many Liberal voters will interpret Wynne's move as "permission for them to vote NDP". Journalist Geoffrey Stevens similarly contends that with her concession, Wynne had intentionally sought to tip the election to the NDP.
That wasn't Wynne's express intent, though, as she had asked voters to elect as many Liberal MPPs as possible to prevent the PCs or the NDP from forming a majority government with what she called "a blank cheque".
This past Monday, the Toronto Star ran an op-ed piece by Dan Rath, a past advisor to former Liberal Premier David Peterson and a consultant to former Prime Minister Jean Chretien's government, in which he urged Liberals to reject Wynne’s appeal and instead vote en masse for the NDP. Some excerpts:
Now is the time for all good Liberals to come to the aid of the party: The New Democratic Party. Liberals and other centre-left Ontarians need to get their heads around what's at stake on Thursday. This is no less than an existential moment for Ontario's progressive legacy.Young Voters
This election is about protecting and preserving the progressive achievements and securing the advances in social justice and Liberal values that generations of small "l" and large "L" liberals have fought for. These gains have benefited generations of Ontarians in ways we have come to take for granted because they are so deeply ingrained in the way we are in this province.
Liberals, listen up - if Doug Ford wins, this all goes into the shredder. The urgency of this situation calls for decisive and purposive action by Liberal voters. But in her mea culpa Saturday, Wynne got it dead wrong. The need is for strategic voting but not, as Wynne suggested, for Liberal candidates in hopes of producing a minority government. If the Liberal vote is to swell sufficiently to elect the 12-15 Liberal members needed to result in a minority legislature, those votes will come almost exclusively at the expense of the NDP, who are neck-and-neck with the Tories.
That means progressive voters who respond to Wynne's last-ditch plea and vote Liberal will deliver a catastrophic unintended consequence: they will decrease the NDP vote yield enough to ensure a PC victory - probably with a majority. The notorious efficiency of the PC vote is the danger. With their broadly distributed, non-clustered support in both urban and rural ridings, the PCs are poised to win far more seats than the NDP with roughly the same number of votes.
Rather than providing the moderating influence of a minority government with the Liberals holding the balance of power, chipping away at the NDP vote will merely increase the likelihood of Doug Ford becoming premier - and each Liberal vote retrieved from the NDP improves the chances Ford will command a majority.
Key progressive actors in Ontario should take it upon themselves to counter Wynne's advice. They should join The Star in recognizing the true nature of the Ford PC threat to Ontario's progressive legacy and traditions, and endorse the NDP to help credibly validate the inclinations of Liberal-NDP switchers and keep them from straying back to the doomed Liberal cause.
Christo Aivalis points out that this is the first Ontario election in which Millennials comprise a bigger potential voting bloc than Baby Boomers.
Availis notes that while "Boomers are still set to have a bigger electoral footprint because young people tend to vote in lower numbers", that edge can be blunted by the relative ease by which Ontarians can vote. Elections Ontario advises that it is not necessary to register to vote or to have a voter information card on hand to cast a ballot. All that an eligible elector needs to vote is acceptable documentation that proving their identity and address. A wide variety of documents are valid, including some documents from colleges and universities.
As Aivalis puts it:
[E]xamples from even the past couple years show that young people, if they increase their turnout, can have profound effects on an election. In 2015, Justin Trudeau won a resounding victory, with more than one source noting that enthusiasm from young Canadians played a decisive role, especially in giving Trudeau his majority government. Likewise, the United Kingdom’s 2017 general election was expected to be an absolute landslide victory for Theresa May and her Conservative Party, but a spike in youth turnout helped Labour Party leader Jeremy Corbyn pick up around 30 seats, erasing the Conservative majority in a result few analysts predicted.The NDP are performing best with voters under the age of 45.
Women Voters
Doug Ford ranks as the least trustworthy of the four main party leaders among women.
Barry Kay, a political science professor at Wilfrid Laurier University remarks:
[W]omen are much more concerned, much more skeptical and apprehensive about what a Doug Ford government looks like. And I think that's the dynamic that has really taken hold over the last month.This gender gap has the potential to cost the PCs seats in seat-rich regions, especially in the "905".
If only men were voting, I think the PCs would pretty clearly win this election. But Doug Ford just has not connected as a political figure with women. … [W]omen are the people who the [PCs] have failed to close the deal with. Clearly, it's having an impact on the election.
posted by New Frontier at 9:01 PM on June 6, 2018 [6 favorites]
I'm so stressed out about this one, you guys. I'm over here in nova scotia sweating fucking bullets because I can't vote in my childhood province anymore. Please please please, for the love of god, ontario, do not fuck this up.
posted by mrjohnmuller at 9:15 PM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by mrjohnmuller at 9:15 PM on June 6, 2018 [1 favorite]
Ditto. I've only managed to make it to Ontario once but I sure as heck don't want to see Ontario experience the shit show that is happening down south.
posted by Mitheral at 11:32 PM on June 6, 2018
posted by Mitheral at 11:32 PM on June 6, 2018
I started to make a list of the ridings in which Liberals who are thinking of voting NDP or staying home could make a difference, but it's a lot of them. There are only 15 of 124 ridings where the Conservatives are projected to get a majority of the popular vote. In the rest, there's some chance - sometimes a small chance, sometimes a big chance - that Liberals or undecideds voting NDP at the last minute could defeat the PC candidate.
Get out and vote!
posted by clawsoon at 3:54 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Get out and vote!
posted by clawsoon at 3:54 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
(Liberals or undecideds, or Greens outside of Guelph...)
posted by clawsoon at 3:57 AM on June 7, 2018
posted by clawsoon at 3:57 AM on June 7, 2018
My offhand guess is NDP takes the popular vote, PCs a majority of the seats. Liberals finish with less than a half-dozen. Greens don't win in Guelph.
posted by The Notorious SRD at 5:37 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by The Notorious SRD at 5:37 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
I still can't believe how nakedly Wynne made the play. I have no particular hatred for Wynne in my heart (although I live in waterloo so voting for catherine Fife of the dips is a pretty easy choice, locally), she inherited a crap sandwich from mcguinty, is certainly fighting elements of sexism and homophobia in the judgement of her performance, and even if she had a higher customer satisfaction quotient overall there's just plain Lib fatigue to deal with. But how angry must all the lib candidates in contested (or even previously uncontested!) regions be with Wynne's bland "Yeah, we're in the tank, here" admission? Much back room knife sharpening I would think.
I look at Horwath...and think about Bob Rae and Sheila Copps.
I look at Ford...and think about Mike Harris (well, and Rob obviously).
Ford is so execrable that Horwath seems the only choice to me, but still not a great one. Bleargh.
posted by hearthpig at 6:13 AM on June 7, 2018
I look at Horwath...and think about Bob Rae and Sheila Copps.
I look at Ford...and think about Mike Harris (well, and Rob obviously).
Ford is so execrable that Horwath seems the only choice to me, but still not a great one. Bleargh.
posted by hearthpig at 6:13 AM on June 7, 2018
Predictions? I’m hoping PC 61, NDP 57, LIB 5, Green 1
I don’t think it will happen, though it would be awesome :)
QC125 has a Path to 65 seats (they have on for PC too, but realistically PC might get as high as 70+ seats according to the yesterday’s polls
posted by saucysault at 6:34 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
I don’t think it will happen, though it would be awesome :)
QC125 has a Path to 65 seats (they have on for PC too, but realistically PC might get as high as 70+ seats according to the yesterday’s polls
posted by saucysault at 6:34 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Sheila Copps?
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:36 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:36 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
She’s nobody’s baby! (I’m not sure either why she was listed with the dippers, let alone provincial dippers, unless I am missing something?)
posted by saucysault at 6:54 AM on June 7, 2018
posted by saucysault at 6:54 AM on June 7, 2018
From the Beaverton: Ontario Proud texts Ontarians pictures of their children at school, asks who they’re voting for now.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:03 AM on June 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:03 AM on June 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Voting was busy this morning and thankfully near my kid's school so it was an easy diversion. Nice to see a lot of neighbourhood faces and nobody was sweating on their votes, everybody was in and out.
Met my NDP candidate on the way home last night and she was deeply keen that we all got out to vote this morning even offering us rides. I wished her luck (because we all need it). I'll add that she was the only candidate who actually came to our neighbourhood that I saw. Everybody else had canvassers.
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:18 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Met my NDP candidate on the way home last night and she was deeply keen that we all got out to vote this morning even offering us rides. I wished her luck (because we all need it). I'll add that she was the only candidate who actually came to our neighbourhood that I saw. Everybody else had canvassers.
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:18 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
I was at the polls by 9:30 a.m. this morning. Hoping for the best.
posted by orange swan at 7:35 AM on June 7, 2018
posted by orange swan at 7:35 AM on June 7, 2018
As hotly contested as this election is, I live in one of those super safe for one party seats and only that one party actually even knocked on my door and I saw no candidates out campaigning. But I voted before heading to the office, so that's done. Go Ontario.
posted by TORunner at 7:36 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by TORunner at 7:36 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Yeah sorry the Sheila Copps connection is probably only obvious in my own head since I grew up in Hamilton. Never mind.
posted by hearthpig at 7:54 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by hearthpig at 7:54 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
So if I'm reading the QC125 site right my riding, Willowdale, has an 80% chance of going PC and 19% chance of remaining Liberal. If I don't want the PCs to win, assuming I can do anything to stop them, should I be following the projection and voting Liberal or hoping for an orange wave and voting NDP? I feel that whatever way I vote the PC candidate is still going to win and I'm going to regret not voting for the other party.
This is why we need to change how we vote for candidates.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 7:57 AM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
This is why we need to change how we vote for candidates.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 7:57 AM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
In Toronto Centre and haven't cast my vote yet - tooclosetocall.ca is calling the NDP here, with a margin of 0.9% over the Liberals; signage looks about evenly split between red and orange; the LISPOP server is down... I think I might hedge my bets that progressives will take their cues from the wider ABC push for the NDP, unless anyone has reason to suggest otherwise... (please share if so, my nails are bitten to the quick).
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:12 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:12 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
I voted. Tell everyone you know in Ontario that they should vote too. That it matter.
posted by Fizz at 8:16 AM on June 7, 2018
posted by Fizz at 8:16 AM on June 7, 2018
Tooclosetocall had Willowdale at 29%Lib, 26%NDP and 40%PC. Those are NOT riding polls though. Mainstreet had riding polls behind a paywall but I can’t find Willowdale leaked anywhere. This is another riding predictor site, I do not know how valid it is.
posted by saucysault at 8:21 AM on June 7, 2018
posted by saucysault at 8:21 AM on June 7, 2018
One of my colleagues was almost in tears yesterday, talking about the prospect of a Doug Ford-led PC government that will gut public services and potentially put her out of a job at the age of 60. The PCs hacked Ontario off at the knees for anyone who isn't rich the last time they were in power and now they've got a golden opportunity to finish the job. The formula never changes for large and small-c Conservatives everywhere: lower taxes (especially for the rich), cry poverty, and slash services, especially for the poor and vulnerable. A little while later voters start noticing that life in their province or state is shabbier, but by then the conservatives have usually been voted out of power, one of the centrist or left-leaning parties is left holding the bag, and people don't make the connection between the taxes they aren't paying any more and the increased number of potholes, homelessness, library closures, whatever.
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:44 AM on June 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
posted by The Card Cheat at 8:44 AM on June 7, 2018 [11 favorites]
Most people just don't pay attention. At physio this morning, the PT working on the patient next to me was saying "If only they had put a woman in, they would be winning in a landslide. Ford's such a buffoon!" So I guess she was soft PC supporting, but so offended by Ford that she was even half-jokingly wondering where she could go after the election. I pointed out that if the polls held, the Tories would have a majority, and that it wasn't a close race in terms of ridings at all.
I think the small-c conservatism of the electorate, and the general ignorance of the nuts and bolts of the political system and the economy, means that people look for patterns from their own memories of previous governments and what their louder friends go on about.
The internal monologues probably look like: Liberals? Some good governments, some bad governments, current is seen as bad. Tories? They've also been good and bad. NDP? Not much data there. They only got in once, and everyone says they were terrible, because Rae Days. (Never mind entering office in a recession and the fact that Rae Days probably kept a lot of people employed.)
So the good old Tories, with all those "nice" women who didn't get elected leader running the show behind the scenes, will surely be the best, safest choice for these people. They see the NDP as just too risky, radical, etc.
God, let the right turnout and the right voter decisions prove me wrong.
posted by maudlin at 9:09 AM on June 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
I think the small-c conservatism of the electorate, and the general ignorance of the nuts and bolts of the political system and the economy, means that people look for patterns from their own memories of previous governments and what their louder friends go on about.
The internal monologues probably look like: Liberals? Some good governments, some bad governments, current is seen as bad. Tories? They've also been good and bad. NDP? Not much data there. They only got in once, and everyone says they were terrible, because Rae Days. (Never mind entering office in a recession and the fact that Rae Days probably kept a lot of people employed.)
So the good old Tories, with all those "nice" women who didn't get elected leader running the show behind the scenes, will surely be the best, safest choice for these people. They see the NDP as just too risky, radical, etc.
God, let the right turnout and the right voter decisions prove me wrong.
posted by maudlin at 9:09 AM on June 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
I voted, I've reminded all my friends (we are those so-called millennials that they really need to show up to vote) to vote and sent them links on how to vote. I plan to watch the results tonight with a large glass of wine.
I'm also hoping these are the only technical issues had today....
posted by devonia at 9:13 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
I'm also hoping these are the only technical issues had today....
posted by devonia at 9:13 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Good luck today, Ontario.
posted by Chrysostom at 9:17 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Chrysostom at 9:17 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
From The Beaverton: Rest of Canada Would Appreciate It If Ontario Would Hurry the Fuck Up and Vote Already
'Please, for the love of my sanity, chose a government already,' said Post. 'Any government, any leader, I don't care, make a rabid man-eating grizzly bear Premier, just let this be over.'posted by New Frontier at 9:29 AM on June 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
'Oh, but don't vote for that Ford guy, he seems like a giant ass.'
In Toronto Centre and haven't cast my vote yet - tooclosetocall.ca is calling the NDP here, with a margin of 0.9% over the Liberals; signage looks about evenly split between red and orange; the LISPOP server is down... I think I might hedge my bets that progressives will take their cues from the wider ABC push for the NDP, unless anyone has reason to suggest otherwise... (please share if so, my nails are bitten to the quick).
We're in Toronto Centre (voted over the weekend), and it's kinda hard to say. We had both the Liberal and NDP candidates personally come to our door two weekends ago. Partisan considerations aside, they both seem young and energetic, and it seems that they've been covering a lot of ground over the last few weeks (we've seen them both out and about a fair bit), so unsurprised that polls are calling it this close in this riding.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:32 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
We're in Toronto Centre (voted over the weekend), and it's kinda hard to say. We had both the Liberal and NDP candidates personally come to our door two weekends ago. Partisan considerations aside, they both seem young and energetic, and it seems that they've been covering a lot of ground over the last few weeks (we've seen them both out and about a fair bit), so unsurprised that polls are calling it this close in this riding.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:32 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Also, Toronto Centre's been without an MPP since Glen Murray decided it was time to decamp for the Pembina Institute last year. This recent Globe and Mail investigation gives a whiff of why that might have been...
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:37 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:37 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Willowdale is one of the top 5 most difficult ridings to decide what the right strategic vote would be. Good luck, any portmanteau in a storm.
posted by clawsoon at 9:39 AM on June 7, 2018
posted by clawsoon at 9:39 AM on June 7, 2018
Good luck today, Ontario.
God speed, everyone.
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 9:51 AM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
God speed, everyone.
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 9:51 AM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Reading a bit on Glenn Murray (Toronto Life, hopefully not paywalled), and thinking about the Liberal in my riding who wants to replace him: The Ontario Liberal Party makes me think of Nelson Rockefeller Republicans; people who mostly want to do the right thing who also happen to be rich or well-educated or otherwise successful. It's a grouping that has been smeared into meaninglessness in U.S. politics, but here in Canada the Liberals can still make a pitch to successful, pleasant people to be candidates for the party of Responsibility and Kindness and Pulling Yourself Up By Your Bootstraps But Not Forgetting Those Who Need The Government's Kindly Helping Hand.
The fact that the brand still exists in Canada is a good, hopeful thing, even though I've never voted for it myself.
posted by clawsoon at 10:08 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
The fact that the brand still exists in Canada is a good, hopeful thing, even though I've never voted for it myself.
posted by clawsoon at 10:08 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
I ended up deciding to not vote strategically (because I couldn't figure out what the strategic vote would be) and just vote for who I wanted to win. If the PC candidate beats the Liberal by 1 vote I'll regret my decision but otherwise I'll be fine with it.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 10:44 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 10:44 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Just voted. Hamilton Centre, Horwath's riding.
The election volunteer was complaining (huh?) about the high voter turnout, that there were even twenty people waiting for the doors to open that morning, and that's never happened before.
Not to make too much of that, but -- a high turnout in a sure-thing riding? There's a lot of people who really don't want Ford or Tory. Now, that might turn into an orange wave, but I'm standing by my prediction that the NDP wins the popular vote, but Ford wins on seats.
posted by Capt. Renault at 10:46 AM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
The election volunteer was complaining (huh?) about the high voter turnout, that there were even twenty people waiting for the doors to open that morning, and that's never happened before.
Not to make too much of that, but -- a high turnout in a sure-thing riding? There's a lot of people who really don't want Ford or Tory. Now, that might turn into an orange wave, but I'm standing by my prediction that the NDP wins the popular vote, but Ford wins on seats.
posted by Capt. Renault at 10:46 AM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
About 768,895 of 10.2 million eligible voters cast ballots at advance polls between May 26 and June 1, Elections Ontario reports. That's an 18.8 per cent increase from 2014, when an estimated 647,261 voters turned up at advance polls.
The increase in advance voting is a good sign, since it means there will very likely be a good turn out today, and a good turn out might mean the forecasts based on polling data no longer apply.
posted by orange swan at 11:40 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
The increase in advance voting is a good sign, since it means there will very likely be a good turn out today, and a good turn out might mean the forecasts based on polling data no longer apply.
posted by orange swan at 11:40 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
blogTO has pointed me towards a strategic voting website out there that purports to tell you who to vote for in order to beat the PC candidate: VoteWell. For all I know it could have been made by a PC supporter in order to trick people into making the unstrategic vote but it told me that my vote was the strategic choice so that'll be enough for me until I can actually see the result tonight.
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 11:59 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by any portmanteau in a storm at 11:59 AM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
This Global News post says that if Ontario has a bellwether riding, it's Peterborough-Kawartha. Since 1977 Peterborough-Kawartha has elected a member of the governing party in every election. And Peterborough-Kawartha is polling at 41% NDP according to CalculatedPolitics.com.
It'll be interesting to see if it proves the bellwether riding again tonight.
posted by orange swan at 12:31 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
It'll be interesting to see if it proves the bellwether riding again tonight.
posted by orange swan at 12:31 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Office folk can't remember who is in which party. Some of them can't decide, don't like any of the options. One of the ladies is pushing the idea that if you vote NDP, you're a big dummy. They're *arguing* over whether Horwath is NDP or not.
They'll all be voting later.
posted by Capt. Renault at 1:35 PM on June 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
They'll all be voting later.
posted by Capt. Renault at 1:35 PM on June 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
My wife (who works for the province) and her colleagues at work were literally wincing yesterday at the prospect of having to write "the Honourable Doug Ford."
posted by mightygodking at 1:36 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by mightygodking at 1:36 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Also:
Anyways, this election is balls, Rob Ford is going to win and hopefully he'll just sit around leeching off taxpayers and not making too many decisions, which is marginally better than leeching off taxpayers and making shitty decisions, I guess?
No, Doug isn't going to do that. Doug is your classic Trumpian narcissist - he wants to Be Important And Do Big Things (and also funnel as much money to his bleeding business as humanly possible, which for Doug will be pretty straightforward because label companies can always get work from the government - and no of COURSE he won't put the business in a blind trust) with one major exception, which is that he isn't lazy about doing things, just lazy about learning how to do them. When he was in Toronto he constantly complained that Toronto didn't have a strong-mayor system so that he and Rob could fire people at whim, let him alter decades of policy planning to put a stupid Ferris wheel and megamall in the Port Lands, close libraries and community centres and sell off the land, unilaterally order subway construction in the tens of billions of dollars, etc.
He's a mean, bullying idiot, but he's not a lazy one. If he gets power he's going to use it like a hammer.
posted by mightygodking at 1:45 PM on June 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
Anyways, this election is balls, Rob Ford is going to win and hopefully he'll just sit around leeching off taxpayers and not making too many decisions, which is marginally better than leeching off taxpayers and making shitty decisions, I guess?
No, Doug isn't going to do that. Doug is your classic Trumpian narcissist - he wants to Be Important And Do Big Things (and also funnel as much money to his bleeding business as humanly possible, which for Doug will be pretty straightforward because label companies can always get work from the government - and no of COURSE he won't put the business in a blind trust) with one major exception, which is that he isn't lazy about doing things, just lazy about learning how to do them. When he was in Toronto he constantly complained that Toronto didn't have a strong-mayor system so that he and Rob could fire people at whim, let him alter decades of policy planning to put a stupid Ferris wheel and megamall in the Port Lands, close libraries and community centres and sell off the land, unilaterally order subway construction in the tens of billions of dollars, etc.
He's a mean, bullying idiot, but he's not a lazy one. If he gets power he's going to use it like a hammer.
posted by mightygodking at 1:45 PM on June 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
Pity Wynne didn't endorse the NDP in Etobicoke North.
It's not a lock for Ford at all and
Ford losing the riding would create some chaos.
posted by yyz at 1:52 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
It's not a lock for Ford at all and
Ford losing the riding would create some chaos.
posted by yyz at 1:52 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
I gave my vote to the NDP’s Suze Morrison, who I think would do an outstanding job (in addition to being the ABD candidate to support. I think. We’ll see:/).
posted by cotton dress sock at 2:28 PM on June 7, 2018
posted by cotton dress sock at 2:28 PM on June 7, 2018
My wife (who works for the province) and her colleagues at work were literally wincing yesterday at the prospect of having to write "the Honourable Doug Ford."
It could be worse. Some of us had to write "His Worship Rob Ford".
posted by saturday_morning at 2:39 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
It could be worse. Some of us had to write "His Worship Rob Ford".
posted by saturday_morning at 2:39 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Done the thing. I'll be at a punk show tonight to immiserate and commiserate… or celebrate?
posted by rodlymight at 3:05 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by rodlymight at 3:05 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
I voted. Apparently the NDP is a lock in this district anyhow but it still felt great to vote for them.
posted by biggreenplant at 4:23 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by biggreenplant at 4:23 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Just voted(NDP); now an hour wait to scan (lol wot Ontario has learned nothing from every other voting machine debacle.
posted by Yowser at 4:43 PM on June 7, 2018
posted by Yowser at 4:43 PM on June 7, 2018
Cast my first vote in the 905 exile that has become my life, but the PC candidate was up by 10 in the last poll.
posted by Beardman at 4:50 PM on June 7, 2018
posted by Beardman at 4:50 PM on June 7, 2018
Just voted and have started drinking.
posted by bonobothegreat at 4:51 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by bonobothegreat at 4:51 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
* cracks a beer *
posted by Beardman at 4:54 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Beardman at 4:54 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
brb turning off internet forever and becoming a hermit.
(But hey if you haven't voted yet, now's a golden opportunity you have until nine, in some places it's even open a bit later)
posted by Yowser at 4:57 PM on June 7, 2018
(But hey if you haven't voted yet, now's a golden opportunity you have until nine, in some places it's even open a bit later)
posted by Yowser at 4:57 PM on June 7, 2018
I'm debating going out to get 250 ml of table cream so I can make some homemade Bailey's for the evening, but am thinking maybe I won't in order to save the alcohol I have on hand for the mid-term U.S. elections in November, when I can confidently expect to drink in celebration rather than in misery.
posted by orange swan at 4:58 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by orange swan at 4:58 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Can someone tell me who's bright idea it was to use voting machines? As a longtime machine hater, I am so pissed off about this that I want to make sure it is never allowed again.
posted by Yowser at 5:05 PM on June 7, 2018
posted by Yowser at 5:05 PM on June 7, 2018
Everything went flawlessly at my polling station earlier today. I'm in a solidly-NDP riding so I'm not expecting any surprises locally... but man, I've got this pricking in my thumbs...
posted by Mary Ellen Carter at 5:25 PM on June 7, 2018
posted by Mary Ellen Carter at 5:25 PM on June 7, 2018
I'm impressed how well-organised the NDP are in my riding. Someone dropped by earlier today with a little note reminding us to vote and providing a number to call if we needed a ride. Then someone came by to ask if we all voted.
No other party has done this in my area.
posted by Ashwagandha at 5:32 PM on June 7, 2018
No other party has done this in my area.
posted by Ashwagandha at 5:32 PM on June 7, 2018
Turnout -- does not seem to be there. "Turnout as of 7pm was about 44%, PC campaign sources tell me, which puts it on track for about 51%. PCs are happy with that because it suggests there is not an unexpected surge of millennial voters."
posted by maudlin at 5:40 PM on June 7, 2018
posted by maudlin at 5:40 PM on June 7, 2018
OK. Give it to me, Paikin. I can take it. I think...
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:05 PM on June 7, 2018
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:05 PM on June 7, 2018
Early polling results suggest now would be a great time to hit the sauce.
posted by Yowser at 6:08 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Yowser at 6:08 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Oof....
posted by Ashwagandha at 6:15 PM on June 7, 2018
posted by Ashwagandha at 6:15 PM on June 7, 2018
Oh fuck, Ontario.
posted by nubs at 6:17 PM on June 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by nubs at 6:17 PM on June 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
Can't wait for the entire fucking province to be turned into a piggy bank for Ford's buddies.
And you thought Hydro One was bad.
HOO BOY
posted by Yowser at 6:19 PM on June 7, 2018
And you thought Hydro One was bad.
HOO BOY
posted by Yowser at 6:19 PM on June 7, 2018
fuck all the people who didn't vote because they couldn't be bothered.
posted by biggreenplant at 6:20 PM on June 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by biggreenplant at 6:20 PM on June 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
My advice to you is to start drinking heavily.
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:21 PM on June 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:21 PM on June 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Oh dear Christ. My condolences to you, dear Ontarians.
At least your autocratic misogynist asshole leader doesn't have nukes.
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:23 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
At least your autocratic misogynist asshole leader doesn't have nukes.
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:23 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Progressive Conservative majority projected
Not a surprise, but fuck you Ontariarifuckers
posted by Yowser at 6:24 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Not a surprise, but fuck you Ontariarifuckers
posted by Yowser at 6:24 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
TVO has called a PC majority.
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:24 PM on June 7, 2018
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:24 PM on June 7, 2018
The Greens are conservatives.
posted by Yowser at 6:26 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Yowser at 6:26 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Lord love a duck, they actually gave that oleaginous grifter a majority.
posted by Mary Ellen Carter at 6:27 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Mary Ellen Carter at 6:27 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
The Greens are conservatives.
Yeah, but Euro-style conservatives where social programs are considered an essential necessity. But they're run by pasty white guys so they're okay to vote for in some centre-right eyes.
posted by mightygodking at 6:36 PM on June 7, 2018
Yeah, but Euro-style conservatives where social programs are considered an essential necessity. But they're run by pasty white guys so they're okay to vote for in some centre-right eyes.
posted by mightygodking at 6:36 PM on June 7, 2018
Looking at the results as they’re coming in I’m getting the impression that it’s primarily the suburbs of Toronto handing Ford this win and I don’t get it. Surely, they live close enough to Ground Zero to remember his idiot brother. My own riding is staying Liberal as it always does.
posted by wabbittwax at 6:37 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by wabbittwax at 6:37 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Those suburbs were on track to re-elect his idiot brother until he got cancer.
posted by saturday_morning at 6:39 PM on June 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by saturday_morning at 6:39 PM on June 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
CBC calls PC majority as well.
* barfs fresh chunks onto a dried puddle of barf from Rob's election night *
posted by Beardman at 6:39 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
* barfs fresh chunks onto a dried puddle of barf from Rob's election night *
posted by Beardman at 6:39 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Gah. Mike Fucking Harris all over again. Cuts to environment, education, welfare, here we come. Maybe we don't need Grade 12 either. Hopefully we don't see another Walkerton...
posted by hearthpig at 6:40 PM on June 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by hearthpig at 6:40 PM on June 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
Well, in good news, Donna Skelly won’t be on Hamilton city council anymore.
In bad news, Donna Skelly might be in a position of actual power. Sorry, everybody.
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:41 PM on June 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
In bad news, Donna Skelly might be in a position of actual power. Sorry, everybody.
posted by Capt. Renault at 6:41 PM on June 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Maybe we'll get a Ferris wheel in every town that voted PC. And a subway.
posted by Ashwagandha at 6:42 PM on June 7, 2018
posted by Ashwagandha at 6:42 PM on June 7, 2018
I voted. I was in and out in about seven minutes, which was about twice as long as it could have been, because they still had me registered at my former address, and they had to update it. Then I went to the LCBO. Unfortunately, it looks like a Conservative majority. This really is not good.
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 6:43 PM on June 7, 2018
posted by Multicellular Exothermic at 6:43 PM on June 7, 2018
Happy that the incumbent Liberal in my riding is currently in a distant third, but the PC is leading (not entirely surprising).
Happy that the Greens finally have an MPP at Queen’s Park. First time in more than a century we have had four parties represented.
Happy that my NDP candidate pal is currently leading the incumbent cabinet minister by about 6000 votes.
Not happy about much else.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 6:54 PM on June 7, 2018
Happy that the Greens finally have an MPP at Queen’s Park. First time in more than a century we have had four parties represented.
Happy that my NDP candidate pal is currently leading the incumbent cabinet minister by about 6000 votes.
Not happy about much else.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 6:54 PM on June 7, 2018
Maybe we'll get a Ferris wheel in every town that voted PC. And a subway.
I guess that means Hamilton will continue to... not have light rail?
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:56 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
I guess that means Hamilton will continue to... not have light rail?
posted by tivalasvegas at 6:56 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Happy that the Greens finally have an MPP at Queen’s Park. First time in more than a century we have had four parties represented.
I'd like to feel happy about this, but in my current state of mind it just means that in four years there will be 3 prominent left-of-centre parties splitting the 60% of the vote that didn't want Doug Ford in power instead of just 2, hooray?
posted by saturday_morning at 6:57 PM on June 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
I'd like to feel happy about this, but in my current state of mind it just means that in four years there will be 3 prominent left-of-centre parties splitting the 60% of the vote that didn't want Doug Ford in power instead of just 2, hooray?
posted by saturday_morning at 6:57 PM on June 7, 2018 [3 favorites]
Pleased to announce that Alberta will not be accepting any criticism until mid-2019.
posted by figurant at 7:00 PM on June 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by figurant at 7:00 PM on June 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
Oh we're all going into the barrel in 2019. We're riding this country straight to hell.
posted by Yowser at 7:00 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Yowser at 7:00 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Friend took a long swig out of a metal bottle. Sadly, it was water.
posted by seanmpuckett at 7:01 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by seanmpuckett at 7:01 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Can someone tell me who's bright idea it was to use voting machines? As a longtime machine hater, I am so pissed off about this that I want to make sure it is never allowed again.
Hi. I worked the election today, feeding the machine in a Davenport polling station.
They aren't voting machines. You cast your ballot by hand. They're vote counting machines and your paper ballot has been retained.
posted by Evstar at 7:01 PM on June 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
Hi. I worked the election today, feeding the machine in a Davenport polling station.
They aren't voting machines. You cast your ballot by hand. They're vote counting machines and your paper ballot has been retained.
posted by Evstar at 7:01 PM on June 7, 2018 [8 favorites]
Thanks, I sort of knew that, but there was no confirmation of any kind that my vote was correctly tabulated. What do the scrutineers do, exactly, to ensure there's no tomfoolery?
posted by Yowser at 7:04 PM on June 7, 2018
posted by Yowser at 7:04 PM on June 7, 2018
Evstar, I live in Davenport. Did you feed my vote into the machine today? Were you there at 9:30 or so, and were you wearing an all black outfit today?
posted by orange swan at 7:05 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by orange swan at 7:05 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Welp, Ontario voted for change, and boy, are we gonna fucking get it.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:16 PM on June 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:16 PM on June 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
It's over -- the PCs are at 62 seats, which is a majority.
Kathleen Wynne won her own seat, at least.
I suppose I could be glad that at least Doug won't be mayor of Toronto now, but I'd almost rather have had that than this. He has so much power as premier, and given that he can form a majority government there's basically no way to get him out of office until he's served his term. This is going to be so, so ugly.
Ontario, what have you done?
posted by orange swan at 7:18 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Kathleen Wynne won her own seat, at least.
I suppose I could be glad that at least Doug won't be mayor of Toronto now, but I'd almost rather have had that than this. He has so much power as premier, and given that he can form a majority government there's basically no way to get him out of office until he's served his term. This is going to be so, so ugly.
Ontario, what have you done?
posted by orange swan at 7:18 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Maybe Elizabeth Dowdeswell will emerge from her lair and say "Are you fucking kidding me? The Queen would have my head if I let this go through"
(hah! )
(feh)
posted by Yowser at 7:20 PM on June 7, 2018
(hah! )
(feh)
posted by Yowser at 7:20 PM on June 7, 2018
Doug Ford is insufferable.
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:23 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:23 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Did DoFo just bump Wynne’s concession speech?!? What an insufferable, classless dick.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:25 PM on June 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:25 PM on June 7, 2018 [4 favorites]
My house is near a corner. Someone took the Liberal election sign off my lawn today. John Fraser got re-elected anyways in Ottawa South despite the prediction we would go blue.
I can’t believe we have that Stupid Malevolent Carbetbagger Troll in charge of the province. Listening to him jabber right now sickens me.
posted by fimbulvetr at 7:27 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
I can’t believe we have that Stupid Malevolent Carbetbagger Troll in charge of the province. Listening to him jabber right now sickens me.
posted by fimbulvetr at 7:27 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
Seems like DoFo started celebrating a bit early.
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:29 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:29 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Is it me or does it sound like some people were booing when he mentions that Rob is looking down from heaven?
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:30 PM on June 7, 2018
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:30 PM on June 7, 2018
Denzil Minnan-Wong lost! Well, that’s a bright light on the evening!
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:57 PM on June 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
posted by Capt. Renault at 7:57 PM on June 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
I wonder what the results would have looked like without Wynne’s completely fucking idiotic HEY EVERYBODY DON’T BOTHER VOTING LIBERAL ‘CAUSE WE’RE A LOST CAUSE speech. How many centre-right voters went hard Conservative out of fear of the NDP?
posted by Sys Rq at 8:02 PM on June 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
posted by Sys Rq at 8:02 PM on June 7, 2018 [5 favorites]
Denzil Minnan-Wong lost! Well, that’s a bright light on the evening!
Until he registers to run in the municipal election.
posted by samhyland at 8:06 PM on June 7, 2018
Until he registers to run in the municipal election.
posted by samhyland at 8:06 PM on June 7, 2018
Is it me or does it sound like some people were booing when he mentions that Rob is looking down from heaven?
They were correcting his factual error on which direction Rob was looking from.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:07 PM on June 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
They were correcting his factual error on which direction Rob was looking from.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:07 PM on June 7, 2018 [9 favorites]
@Sys Rq, they weren’t going to go for the Liberals anyway. They think Ford can’t be that bad or do much harm on his own (:/), or that the rest of the party will reign him in (:/), and why not cut taxes and “help business” for a while, after all, Wynne spent loads and not many saw the help from that, etc., etc.
Anyway. What do we do now.
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:12 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Anyway. What do we do now.
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:12 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
What to do next? What we're trying to do down here in the US.
Unite the left.
Stand up for poor people, marginalised people, immigrants, First Nations people and everyone else who will be fucked over by a heartless government.
Practice kindness.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:19 PM on June 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
Unite the left.
Stand up for poor people, marginalised people, immigrants, First Nations people and everyone else who will be fucked over by a heartless government.
Practice kindness.
posted by tivalasvegas at 8:19 PM on June 7, 2018 [6 favorites]
And laugh when the Tories get rid of cap and trade and the feds replace it with an actual carbon tax.
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:25 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Capt. Renault at 8:25 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
@Sys Rq, they weren’t going to go for the Liberals anyway.
Bullshit. They would have voted Liberal if the leader of the party hadn’t held a press conference essentially telling them not to bother. It wouldn’t have been enough for the Liberals to come anywhere close to winning, but it could have at least kept the Cons to a minority government. If centre-right voters are afraid of the socialist boogeyman—which right wing attack ads told them to be, over and over and over again—how do they keep it out of office? If the Liberals are out, they vote Conservative. Wynne handed Ford those votes, and that will be her legacy.
What do we do now? For a start, we keep her words alive. The Liberals can’t win. Ever. ABC+L.
posted by Sys Rq at 8:26 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Bullshit. They would have voted Liberal if the leader of the party hadn’t held a press conference essentially telling them not to bother. It wouldn’t have been enough for the Liberals to come anywhere close to winning, but it could have at least kept the Cons to a minority government. If centre-right voters are afraid of the socialist boogeyman—which right wing attack ads told them to be, over and over and over again—how do they keep it out of office? If the Liberals are out, they vote Conservative. Wynne handed Ford those votes, and that will be her legacy.
What do we do now? For a start, we keep her words alive. The Liberals can’t win. Ever. ABC+L.
posted by Sys Rq at 8:26 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
The first-past-the-post system has got to be scrapped.
Here's where things stand at this stage of the vote tabulation.
The PCs have received a mere 6.76% greater share of the total popular vote than the NDP (40.45% to 33.69%) yet the PC's have secured nearly double the number of seats in the legislature.
Taken together, the NDP, Liberal and Green share of the total popular vote (57.78%) exceeds the PCs by 17.33% - yet they have 29 fewer seats than the PCs.
What a distortion of the preferences of the majority of the electorate.
This is yet another reason why we can't have good things in Ontario.
posted by New Frontier at 8:31 PM on June 7, 2018 [14 favorites]
Here's where things stand at this stage of the vote tabulation.
The PCs have received a mere 6.76% greater share of the total popular vote than the NDP (40.45% to 33.69%) yet the PC's have secured nearly double the number of seats in the legislature.
Taken together, the NDP, Liberal and Green share of the total popular vote (57.78%) exceeds the PCs by 17.33% - yet they have 29 fewer seats than the PCs.
What a distortion of the preferences of the majority of the electorate.
This is yet another reason why we can't have good things in Ontario.
posted by New Frontier at 8:31 PM on June 7, 2018 [14 favorites]
Toldja so.
posted by windykites at 8:34 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by windykites at 8:34 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
The PCs have received a mere 6.76% greater share of the total popular vote than the NDP (40.45% to 33.69%) yet the PC's have secured nearly double the number of seats in the legislature.
I am confidently informed by several people posting on Facebook that a majority government obviously means the majority of Ontarians voted for Doug, QED. 40% of the 51% turnout? That is obviously fake news and liberal tears and anyway Go Doug go.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:45 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
I am confidently informed by several people posting on Facebook that a majority government obviously means the majority of Ontarians voted for Doug, QED. 40% of the 51% turnout? That is obviously fake news and liberal tears and anyway Go Doug go.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:45 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
We might have ended up with a minority conservative government, *if* enough of the centre right in specific ridings were willing to choke back an apparently venomous dislike for Wynne and her policies - was that going to happen? Maybe...
As far as never voting in Liberals again, idk, there’s got to be a middle. Maybe a new one will form, maybe fiscal Conservatives will rebel and join up with the dregs of the Liberals... maybe they should be encouraged to move in that direction. Maybe Ford will give them opportunities for that (I mean how can he not, he’s bound to screw up. There are investigations coming already re the 407 data breach, yes?)
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:46 PM on June 7, 2018
As far as never voting in Liberals again, idk, there’s got to be a middle. Maybe a new one will form, maybe fiscal Conservatives will rebel and join up with the dregs of the Liberals... maybe they should be encouraged to move in that direction. Maybe Ford will give them opportunities for that (I mean how can he not, he’s bound to screw up. There are investigations coming already re the 407 data breach, yes?)
posted by cotton dress sock at 8:46 PM on June 7, 2018
Yowser:
Can someone tell me who's bright idea it was to use voting machines? As a longtime machine hater, I am so pissed off about this that I want to make sure it is never allowed again.
For people with disabilities (and also the temporarily able-bodied, i.e., everyone else) This represents a leap forward by connecting the tablulation machine with the accessible voting technology in use in Ontario provincial elections:
- We offer Assistive Voting Technology in all returning offices and satellite offices from May 26, 2018 until June 6, 2018 at 6 P.M. (Eastern Time). This allows persons with disabilities to cast their ballot secretly and independently.
- Voters who choose to use the Assistive Voting Technology device will be able to listen to the ballot choices and make their selection using three controller options:
- The Audio Tactile Interface or ATI controller: It includes large raised buttons and bright colours and has Braille inscriptions. The controller is also described by audio.
- Paddles: For voters who cannot use the keypad, there are red and blue paddles which can be pressed using hands, feet or even elbows. The paddles are labeled L for left and R for right.
- Sip and Puff Technology: The Sip and Puff technology is a method used to send signals to a device using air pressure by "sipping" (inhaling) or "puffing" (exhaling) into a straw.
So this is a net benefit to everyone. That's how accessibility works.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:50 PM on June 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
Can someone tell me who's bright idea it was to use voting machines? As a longtime machine hater, I am so pissed off about this that I want to make sure it is never allowed again.
For people with disabilities (and also the temporarily able-bodied, i.e., everyone else) This represents a leap forward by connecting the tablulation machine with the accessible voting technology in use in Ontario provincial elections:
- We offer Assistive Voting Technology in all returning offices and satellite offices from May 26, 2018 until June 6, 2018 at 6 P.M. (Eastern Time). This allows persons with disabilities to cast their ballot secretly and independently.
- Voters who choose to use the Assistive Voting Technology device will be able to listen to the ballot choices and make their selection using three controller options:
- The Audio Tactile Interface or ATI controller: It includes large raised buttons and bright colours and has Braille inscriptions. The controller is also described by audio.
- Paddles: For voters who cannot use the keypad, there are red and blue paddles which can be pressed using hands, feet or even elbows. The paddles are labeled L for left and R for right.
- Sip and Puff Technology: The Sip and Puff technology is a method used to send signals to a device using air pressure by "sipping" (inhaling) or "puffing" (exhaling) into a straw.
So this is a net benefit to everyone. That's how accessibility works.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:50 PM on June 7, 2018 [7 favorites]
Thanks, I sort of knew that, but there was no confirmation of any kind that my vote was correctly tabulated. What do the scrutineers do, exactly, to ensure there's no tomfoolery?
Hard for me to say because I only saw one scrutineer today and she didn't interact with me at all. If they're present when we open the polls, they can observe the zero-ballot status of the machine before it starts counting. They can ensure it's counting ballots as they come in. At the end of the night, we post the results as the tabulator machine reports them and they can look them over (there were no scrutineers at poll close to do this at my polling station). I'm happy to talk more about my experience tomorrow but tonight I'll be drinking my disappointment down with my partner. I hope my response earlier didn't sound too glib. I was skeptical of the machines when I started training but now I think it's pretty above-the-board.
OrangeSwan, that wasn't me. Must have been a different polling station. But if you live so close, we should catch up. I remember you from #mefi way back when. Feels like so long ago!
posted by Evstar at 9:03 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
Hard for me to say because I only saw one scrutineer today and she didn't interact with me at all. If they're present when we open the polls, they can observe the zero-ballot status of the machine before it starts counting. They can ensure it's counting ballots as they come in. At the end of the night, we post the results as the tabulator machine reports them and they can look them over (there were no scrutineers at poll close to do this at my polling station). I'm happy to talk more about my experience tomorrow but tonight I'll be drinking my disappointment down with my partner. I hope my response earlier didn't sound too glib. I was skeptical of the machines when I started training but now I think it's pretty above-the-board.
OrangeSwan, that wasn't me. Must have been a different polling station. But if you live so close, we should catch up. I remember you from #mefi way back when. Feels like so long ago!
posted by Evstar at 9:03 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
If it's any consolation, it seems like at least 15% of your new MPPs will be criminally charged in the next few months. So, congrats?
posted by figurant at 9:37 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by figurant at 9:37 PM on June 7, 2018 [2 favorites]
If you are planning to leave Ontario soon, may I suggest you have just enough time to establish residency in BC and help us pass a proportional representation voting system in a referendum this fall.
posted by chapps at 10:49 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by chapps at 10:49 PM on June 7, 2018 [1 favorite]
If it's any consolation, it seems like at least 15% of your new MPPs will be criminally charged in the next few months. So, congrats?
Or, you know, pray for us, because our local rightwing plague-spreader is going for this sort of infectious foulness
posted by figurant at 11:25 PM on June 7, 2018
Or, you know, pray for us, because our local rightwing plague-spreader is going for this sort of infectious foulness
posted by figurant at 11:25 PM on June 7, 2018
.
I’ve never been ashamed of being from Ontario before. This province is good and fucked now.
posted by The Card Cheat at 12:39 AM on June 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
I’ve never been ashamed of being from Ontario before. This province is good and fucked now.
posted by The Card Cheat at 12:39 AM on June 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
Quebecor, Rebel Media, Ontario Proud all greased the way but this morning, I'm going to my local diner and to see some human faces and tell them all to fuck off.
posted by bonobothegreat at 2:27 AM on June 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by bonobothegreat at 2:27 AM on June 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
My disappointed and angry comments on Facebook should be the final match thrown on the gasoline-soaked bridge of rifts within my family of origin. I mean, how many times can my siblings unfriend me? I was visiting Toronto from England in April and an ice storm meant a long-planned family thing had to be cancelled. I was glad because it meant we didn't have to go and hear them talk about politics and struggle vainly to change the subject.
I used to try and change their minds, but you just can't fix stupid.
Last Friday I ended up in Leeds city centre during that horrible, nasty Free Tommy bullshit. This Friday I woke up to this election result. I am starting to not like Fridays.
posted by champagneminimalist at 3:17 AM on June 8, 2018
I used to try and change their minds, but you just can't fix stupid.
Last Friday I ended up in Leeds city centre during that horrible, nasty Free Tommy bullshit. This Friday I woke up to this election result. I am starting to not like Fridays.
posted by champagneminimalist at 3:17 AM on June 8, 2018
"God sent him for us," from more than one Doug Ford supporter at the celebration last night.
My impression is that a lot of people are feeling a financial squeeze - working too hard, paying more than they can afford, stressed all the time - and they think that Doug Ford feels them. He's promising all the things they want - everything cheaper! plus everything better! - and aren't ready to see that his ideas and execution are unlikely to achieve both.
It'll be interesting to see exit polls. (Does anybody have them?)
posted by clawsoon at 4:31 AM on June 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
My impression is that a lot of people are feeling a financial squeeze - working too hard, paying more than they can afford, stressed all the time - and they think that Doug Ford feels them. He's promising all the things they want - everything cheaper! plus everything better! - and aren't ready to see that his ideas and execution are unlikely to achieve both.
It'll be interesting to see exit polls. (Does anybody have them?)
posted by clawsoon at 4:31 AM on June 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
Many people will, in short order, find out what promises from a Ford family member really mean.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 5:13 AM on June 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 5:13 AM on June 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
Races that were within 1,000 votes or so:
NDP vs. PC; PCs win 7, NDP wins 2
Anyway, when are we getting something other than FPTP again? Funny: If the Liberals had passed FPTP, they'd probably hold the balance of power in an NDP government today.
posted by clawsoon at 5:28 AM on June 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
NDP vs. PC; PCs win 7, NDP wins 2
Brampton Centre: NDP over PC by 89 votes Brampton North: NDP over PC by 497 votes Brampton West: PC over NDP by 490 votes Scarborough-Rouge Park: PC over NDP by 963 votes Brantfort-Brant: PC over NDP by 621 votes Kitchener-Conestoga: PC over NDP by 686 votes Kitchener South-Hespeler: PC over NDP by 769 votes Ottawa West-Nepean: PC over NDP by 176 votes Sault-Ste. Marie: PC over NDP by 414 votesLIB vs. PC; LIBs win 4, PCs win 1
Scarborough-Guildwood: LIB over PC by 81 votes Don Valley East: LIB over PC by 1,027 votes Don Valley West: LIB over PC by 181 votes Eglinton-Lawrence: PC over LIB by 752 votesNDP vs. LIB; both win 1
Thunder Bay-Atikokan: NDP over LIB by 81 votes Thunder Bay-Superior North: LIB over NDP by 819 votesInteresting regional groupings for many of the close races: Brampton; Kitchener; the Don Valley; Thunder Bay.
Anyway, when are we getting something other than FPTP again? Funny: If the Liberals had passed FPTP, they'd probably hold the balance of power in an NDP government today.
posted by clawsoon at 5:28 AM on June 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
.
I just moved to Ontario! Why are you doing this to me???
posted by Vindaloo at 6:11 AM on June 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
I just moved to Ontario! Why are you doing this to me???
posted by Vindaloo at 6:11 AM on June 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
My friends are likely to start railing at moderates who dared to vote Liberal in downtown Toronto (where it REALLY didn't matter) -
but we won't take into account the real issue: large swathes of our population preferred a party with no platform, not costed plans, which ran questionable candidates and a former drug-dealer whose business is losing money. Why? Are they so pissed off about a gas plant (that all THREE parties wanted to cancel)? Is it the (pretty awesome) sex ed that teaches kids how to protect themselves and normalizes being LBGT? Do they not understand that if their workers have $15/hour, that means there will be more spending and their businesses and the whole economy will do better? Do they think that a minor tax cut for the vast majority of people will improve their lives more than the massive cuts will hurt them?
The vicious part of me wants to picture people in the 905 and other southern Ontario ridings in 3 years, when their kids' school is wrecked, their parents' long-term care is a shambles - and maybe some of their friends die from poisoned water (Walkerton was NOT in Toronto). But that's a very vicious part of me - I really don't want anyone to be hurt.
But the sad part of me knows that my friends will hurt: some are on minimum wage, all of us rent and most of us can barely afford our rent to start with. The thought that some of the PC voters will also be hurt doesn't help much - especially since they probably won't connect it to the policies they just voted for.
all I can think is: it's 1995 again, and we had barely recovered from the last time - and subsidized housing in Toronto never recovered from Harris. What can we do? I feel as impotent as the last time.
Twenty-three years ago, I was there when the students broke into the legislature, and had a sit-in in the lobby. That did nothing about tuition fees and student debt. On my way into work, I was thinking about civil, and even uncivil disobedience. What can I do to oppose these unjust policies? But I realised that while a sit-in can bring attention to segregation of a cafe, it does nothing to keep ODSP and Ontario Works from being reduced. Riots can't convince a government to keep the $15 minimum wage. We will rail, and we will march - and progressives will tear at each other for minor differences in dogma - and meanwhile, the people who voted for this - many of whom will suffer right along with us - will just watch on the news and ... what? I don't know, because I don't know them, and I really don't understand them.
posted by jb at 6:46 AM on June 8, 2018 [8 favorites]
but we won't take into account the real issue: large swathes of our population preferred a party with no platform, not costed plans, which ran questionable candidates and a former drug-dealer whose business is losing money. Why? Are they so pissed off about a gas plant (that all THREE parties wanted to cancel)? Is it the (pretty awesome) sex ed that teaches kids how to protect themselves and normalizes being LBGT? Do they not understand that if their workers have $15/hour, that means there will be more spending and their businesses and the whole economy will do better? Do they think that a minor tax cut for the vast majority of people will improve their lives more than the massive cuts will hurt them?
The vicious part of me wants to picture people in the 905 and other southern Ontario ridings in 3 years, when their kids' school is wrecked, their parents' long-term care is a shambles - and maybe some of their friends die from poisoned water (Walkerton was NOT in Toronto). But that's a very vicious part of me - I really don't want anyone to be hurt.
But the sad part of me knows that my friends will hurt: some are on minimum wage, all of us rent and most of us can barely afford our rent to start with. The thought that some of the PC voters will also be hurt doesn't help much - especially since they probably won't connect it to the policies they just voted for.
all I can think is: it's 1995 again, and we had barely recovered from the last time - and subsidized housing in Toronto never recovered from Harris. What can we do? I feel as impotent as the last time.
Twenty-three years ago, I was there when the students broke into the legislature, and had a sit-in in the lobby. That did nothing about tuition fees and student debt. On my way into work, I was thinking about civil, and even uncivil disobedience. What can I do to oppose these unjust policies? But I realised that while a sit-in can bring attention to segregation of a cafe, it does nothing to keep ODSP and Ontario Works from being reduced. Riots can't convince a government to keep the $15 minimum wage. We will rail, and we will march - and progressives will tear at each other for minor differences in dogma - and meanwhile, the people who voted for this - many of whom will suffer right along with us - will just watch on the news and ... what? I don't know, because I don't know them, and I really don't understand them.
posted by jb at 6:46 AM on June 8, 2018 [8 favorites]
Interesting regional groupings for many of the close races: Brampton; Kitchener; the Don Valley; Thunder Bay.
I would agree. To me that indicates that some of those ridings that voted PC aren't necessarily as solidly PC as some would believe. Which gives some hope for by-elections and the next time.
As for getting rid of first past the post... I'm fairly pessimistic about it. I can't see it happening unless we get a series of minority governments that cripple parliament. And even then I think it'll be at least a generation before it will happen. I just think there is a large portion of the population that is unwilling to change and unwilling to learn about other options.
because I don't know them, and I really don't understand them.
Yeah, I remember 1995 all to well too. I think for me what is disturbing is the cognitive dissonance of those voters, that cut off the nose to spite the face attitude. Voting for a party that will actively make the lives of your aging demographic worse or the education of their children actively worse is mind boggling. A couple days ago, I overheard the principal of my child's school talking about the cuts they face for the next school year, enacted by the Liberals, that's reducing their supply budget by 12% and general budget by about 6% per student. Under his breath, he said, and depending on who gets elected it will likely be more. Its gonna be a bad time... and I've already agreed with my wife to ban the word "efficiencies" in the home.
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:00 AM on June 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
I would agree. To me that indicates that some of those ridings that voted PC aren't necessarily as solidly PC as some would believe. Which gives some hope for by-elections and the next time.
As for getting rid of first past the post... I'm fairly pessimistic about it. I can't see it happening unless we get a series of minority governments that cripple parliament. And even then I think it'll be at least a generation before it will happen. I just think there is a large portion of the population that is unwilling to change and unwilling to learn about other options.
because I don't know them, and I really don't understand them.
Yeah, I remember 1995 all to well too. I think for me what is disturbing is the cognitive dissonance of those voters, that cut off the nose to spite the face attitude. Voting for a party that will actively make the lives of your aging demographic worse or the education of their children actively worse is mind boggling. A couple days ago, I overheard the principal of my child's school talking about the cuts they face for the next school year, enacted by the Liberals, that's reducing their supply budget by 12% and general budget by about 6% per student. Under his breath, he said, and depending on who gets elected it will likely be more. Its gonna be a bad time... and I've already agreed with my wife to ban the word "efficiencies" in the home.
posted by Ashwagandha at 7:00 AM on June 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
I am so depressed and filled with inchoate anger today. I am certain that some of my extended family in northern Ontario will have cast their vote for the PCs -- and there's a good chance my parents did too. It makes me sick.
I work for the province so the next few months will be interesting as we will probably be spending a lot of time bringing the new minister and their political staff up to speed (so much for efficiencies). We'll see how long it takes before they develop "strategies" of their own and start dismantling programs.
posted by sevenyearlurk at 7:01 AM on June 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
I work for the province so the next few months will be interesting as we will probably be spending a lot of time bringing the new minister and their political staff up to speed (so much for efficiencies). We'll see how long it takes before they develop "strategies" of their own and start dismantling programs.
posted by sevenyearlurk at 7:01 AM on June 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
For those of you who were in Ontario for the Mike Harris campaigns: How did the overt nastiness of Mike Harris compare to that of Doug Ford? My impression is that Ford has run more of a puppies-and-rainbows campaign this time around (everything will be better! plus lower taxes!), while Harris was more overt about wanting to screw over Those Lazy Non-White Welfare Recipients.
posted by clawsoon at 7:49 AM on June 8, 2018
posted by clawsoon at 7:49 AM on June 8, 2018
so much for efficiencies
No, the efficiencies come in when half of your colleagues are canned.
Remember the last time we had “efficiencies” from an incoming Tory government and 28 hospitals were shuttered? The premier of the day in his wisdom said: “Just as Hula-Hoops went out and those workers had to have a factory and a company that would manufacture something else that's in, it's the same in government, and you know, governments have put off these decisions for so many years that restructuring sometimes is painful.”
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:04 AM on June 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
No, the efficiencies come in when half of your colleagues are canned.
Remember the last time we had “efficiencies” from an incoming Tory government and 28 hospitals were shuttered? The premier of the day in his wisdom said: “Just as Hula-Hoops went out and those workers had to have a factory and a company that would manufacture something else that's in, it's the same in government, and you know, governments have put off these decisions for so many years that restructuring sometimes is painful.”
posted by ricochet biscuit at 8:04 AM on June 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
For those of you who were in Ontario for the Mike Harris campaigns: How did the overt nastiness of Mike Harris compare to that of Doug Ford?
One of the things Harris did, it seems to me, was keep the lid on the social conservatives in both his campaign and eventually inthe legislature and in caucus. They were there, but if memory serves, Harris kept the focus on fiscal policy because he wasn’t interested in getting bogged down in their other causes, even if he shared some of their opinions.
Remember Dave Tsoubouchi and the dented cans of tuna?
Good times.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:07 AM on June 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
One of the things Harris did, it seems to me, was keep the lid on the social conservatives in both his campaign and eventually inthe legislature and in caucus. They were there, but if memory serves, Harris kept the focus on fiscal policy because he wasn’t interested in getting bogged down in their other causes, even if he shared some of their opinions.
Remember Dave Tsoubouchi and the dented cans of tuna?
Good times.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 8:07 AM on June 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
Remember Dave Tsoubouchi and the dented cans of tuna?
See, this is the exact example I think of when I think of Mike Harris's "fuck the poor" approach to government. I was young when Harris was in government so I don't know what socially conservative policies Harris might have tried to rein in as Premier. But decades later, this doesn't strike me as showing restraint, but telling welfare recipients exactly how unwelcome they were in this province. I expect the same kind of bullshit from Doug Ford's "efficiencies" search.
I don't know what the final impact of a Doug Ford government will be, especially on the most vulnerable in our society. but I hope to god it really just is all bluster and no bite. Like Rob Ford before him, I hope Doug Ford is feckless enough that he won't actually be able to implement anything he promises.
posted by chrominance at 8:19 AM on June 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
See, this is the exact example I think of when I think of Mike Harris's "fuck the poor" approach to government. I was young when Harris was in government so I don't know what socially conservative policies Harris might have tried to rein in as Premier. But decades later, this doesn't strike me as showing restraint, but telling welfare recipients exactly how unwelcome they were in this province. I expect the same kind of bullshit from Doug Ford's "efficiencies" search.
I don't know what the final impact of a Doug Ford government will be, especially on the most vulnerable in our society. but I hope to god it really just is all bluster and no bite. Like Rob Ford before him, I hope Doug Ford is feckless enough that he won't actually be able to implement anything he promises.
posted by chrominance at 8:19 AM on June 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
The impact will be dependent on their competence. We can hope that it will be limited, but be prepared for the worst. I am keenly interested in making their time in office as costly and unpleasant as possible for them and their backers.
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 8:26 AM on June 8, 2018
posted by Jessica Savitch's Coke Spoon at 8:26 AM on June 8, 2018
I expect the same kind of bullshit from Doug Ford's "efficiencies" search.
I expect the language to be a bit more coded then during the Mike Harris Sr. years but yeah I suspect it'll be about the same. But we'll see.
posted by Ashwagandha at 8:28 AM on June 8, 2018
I expect the language to be a bit more coded then during the Mike Harris Sr. years but yeah I suspect it'll be about the same. But we'll see.
posted by Ashwagandha at 8:28 AM on June 8, 2018
Count me in as another hoping that ford is just a lot of noise and otherwise mostly going to be ineffectual. It's just *so* disappointing as a US ex-pat to see someone like Ford elected here. And voting for a rich, elite ex(?)-drug dealer while claiming that God sent him just really rings the bell of the amount of ignorance and or vicious hypocracy that's out there.
posted by nobeagle at 8:31 AM on June 8, 2018
posted by nobeagle at 8:31 AM on June 8, 2018
Like Rob Ford before him, I hope Doug Ford is feckless enough that he won't actually be able to implement anything he promises.
Again: the Fords were constrained by a political system in Toronto that purposely reduces the Mayor's power, for all intents and purposes, to that of a standard city councillor when it comes to voting in policy. The Toronto mayoral system, for good or ill, is one designed around consensus, and they complained about being hamstrung literally all the time.
Doug isn't feckless. He is many things, all of them bad. But he will go ahead and implement bad policies thoughtlessly and rapidly.
posted by mightygodking at 8:34 AM on June 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
Again: the Fords were constrained by a political system in Toronto that purposely reduces the Mayor's power, for all intents and purposes, to that of a standard city councillor when it comes to voting in policy. The Toronto mayoral system, for good or ill, is one designed around consensus, and they complained about being hamstrung literally all the time.
Doug isn't feckless. He is many things, all of them bad. But he will go ahead and implement bad policies thoughtlessly and rapidly.
posted by mightygodking at 8:34 AM on June 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
And now Ford wants to implement a strong mayor system across Ontario municipalities...
posted by avocet at 8:35 AM on June 8, 2018
posted by avocet at 8:35 AM on June 8, 2018
Amid all of the unremittingly awful stuff that will come out of this provincial government, he's gonna do lots of stuff to the Municipal Act and the City of Toronto Act.
He's got scores to settle. And it'll play well for him in the places where hating Toronto sells - i.e., the rest of the province.
@80sdougford: Sleep tight, f*ckers. Cos tomorrow me and the boys are coming round looking for efficiencies. And we expect to find them
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:40 AM on June 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
He's got scores to settle. And it'll play well for him in the places where hating Toronto sells - i.e., the rest of the province.
@80sdougford: Sleep tight, f*ckers. Cos tomorrow me and the boys are coming round looking for efficiencies. And we expect to find them
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:40 AM on June 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
I was young when Harris was in government so I don't know what socially conservative policies Harris might have tried to rein in as Premier. But decades later, this doesn't strike me as showing restraint, but telling welfare recipients exactly how unwelcome they were in this province.
Harris cut welfare - never generous - by 29%. Even now, Ontario Works (aka welfare) is about $600-800/month for a single adult. Can you imagine trying to live off of that?
ODSP - support for people who disabled and cannot work, including many people with serious intellectual disabilities who are extra vulnerable because of that - currently gives a maximum of $450/month for shelter. In Toronto, even shared accommodation and rooming houses start at $700-800/month.
And if you're homeless on OW or ODSP, you don't even get the shelter allowance - they just take it off your check. Screw staying with family or friends (maybe ill-housed themselves) to try to save for first and last.
Everyone in this whole province should be forced to live for a year on OW or ODSP - with no resources, no family, no parents to bail them out. People who vote PC have utterly no idea what it's like, or maybe they just don't give a shit about other people.
posted by jb at 10:28 AM on June 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
Harris cut welfare - never generous - by 29%. Even now, Ontario Works (aka welfare) is about $600-800/month for a single adult. Can you imagine trying to live off of that?
ODSP - support for people who disabled and cannot work, including many people with serious intellectual disabilities who are extra vulnerable because of that - currently gives a maximum of $450/month for shelter. In Toronto, even shared accommodation and rooming houses start at $700-800/month.
And if you're homeless on OW or ODSP, you don't even get the shelter allowance - they just take it off your check. Screw staying with family or friends (maybe ill-housed themselves) to try to save for first and last.
Everyone in this whole province should be forced to live for a year on OW or ODSP - with no resources, no family, no parents to bail them out. People who vote PC have utterly no idea what it's like, or maybe they just don't give a shit about other people.
posted by jb at 10:28 AM on June 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
jb: And if you're homeless on OW or ODSP, you don't even get the shelter allowance - they just take it off your check.
What?? That's horrific. So they're just, like, "Well, you don't have a home, so why would you need money to pay for one?"
posted by clawsoon at 10:34 AM on June 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
What?? That's horrific. So they're just, like, "Well, you don't have a home, so why would you need money to pay for one?"
posted by clawsoon at 10:34 AM on June 8, 2018 [1 favorite]
He's got scores to settle. And it'll play well for him in the places where hating Toronto sells - i.e., the rest of the province.
I think you may be overestimating how much the rest of Ontario gives a fuck about Doug Ford’s personal grudges. If he focuses all his energy on fucking Toronto, he’s neglecting the rest of the province. We outlanders don’t hate Toronto; we hate that Ontario politicians focus all of their attention on it while neglecting the rest of us. A guy from Toronto grinding an axe for Toronto? What’s to like about that?
But with Doug Ford, maybe it’s for the best if he never finds out there’s a whole province out here.
posted by Sys Rq at 10:34 AM on June 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
I think you may be overestimating how much the rest of Ontario gives a fuck about Doug Ford’s personal grudges. If he focuses all his energy on fucking Toronto, he’s neglecting the rest of the province. We outlanders don’t hate Toronto; we hate that Ontario politicians focus all of their attention on it while neglecting the rest of us. A guy from Toronto grinding an axe for Toronto? What’s to like about that?
But with Doug Ford, maybe it’s for the best if he never finds out there’s a whole province out here.
posted by Sys Rq at 10:34 AM on June 8, 2018 [3 favorites]
A few comments on the vote tabulators so that people can understand them better:
-They are owned and supplied by vendor Dominion Voting Services
-They aren't networked.
-The OS, which is specific to the particular election, is stored on removable Flash memory. It is installed by poll workers like me and shut in by tamper evident seals.
-They scan the ballots on the way in and save the image to 8 GB compact flash cards, also with the seals.
-Paper ballots are retained in sealed envelopes as they would have been in previous elections.
-A "logic and accuracy test" is performed pre and post election on each machine by the worker responsible for that unit.
-Some varieties of spoiled or improperly filled ballots that might have been discounted during a hand count at end of night were instead rejected be the machine, giving the voter the opportunity to fill a replacement ballot and have their vote counted.
posted by Evstar at 10:49 AM on June 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
-They are owned and supplied by vendor Dominion Voting Services
-They aren't networked.
-The OS, which is specific to the particular election, is stored on removable Flash memory. It is installed by poll workers like me and shut in by tamper evident seals.
-They scan the ballots on the way in and save the image to 8 GB compact flash cards, also with the seals.
-Paper ballots are retained in sealed envelopes as they would have been in previous elections.
-A "logic and accuracy test" is performed pre and post election on each machine by the worker responsible for that unit.
-Some varieties of spoiled or improperly filled ballots that might have been discounted during a hand count at end of night were instead rejected be the machine, giving the voter the opportunity to fill a replacement ballot and have their vote counted.
posted by Evstar at 10:49 AM on June 8, 2018 [4 favorites]
Again, Ford likely thinks he's won to be head of Toronto, and will not remember or care that there's an entire province to look after.
posted by Kitteh at 10:51 AM on June 8, 2018
posted by Kitteh at 10:51 AM on June 8, 2018
There was no machine at my polling place (in the basement of my condo building), just a couple of kids with a cardboard box.
The cardboard box looked really official, though.
posted by clawsoon at 10:53 AM on June 8, 2018
The cardboard box looked really official, though.
posted by clawsoon at 10:53 AM on June 8, 2018
See, this is the exact example I think of when I think of Mike Harris's "fuck the poor" approach to government.
Jonathan Freedman wrote a great piece on the Harris welfare cuts in Harper’s in February 1996 (in the archive for subscribers only, alas). I do not have it before me but the gist of it was that the cuts to welfare and taxes meant that Friedman’s middle-class family was going to see x many hundred more dollars in their pocket this year, which was almost exactly what a single mother with two kids was going to be short on. Freedman suggested the government buddy us up: Freedman and his wife could be put in touch with the mom with two kids. Freedman could then send pictures of the new patio furniture set he was buying and the mom could send back pictures of the ramen-and-ketchup supper the kids were having that night.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 11:38 AM on June 8, 2018 [9 favorites]
Jonathan Freedman wrote a great piece on the Harris welfare cuts in Harper’s in February 1996 (in the archive for subscribers only, alas). I do not have it before me but the gist of it was that the cuts to welfare and taxes meant that Friedman’s middle-class family was going to see x many hundred more dollars in their pocket this year, which was almost exactly what a single mother with two kids was going to be short on. Freedman suggested the government buddy us up: Freedman and his wife could be put in touch with the mom with two kids. Freedman could then send pictures of the new patio furniture set he was buying and the mom could send back pictures of the ramen-and-ketchup supper the kids were having that night.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 11:38 AM on June 8, 2018 [9 favorites]
jb: And if you're homeless on OW or ODSP, you don't even get the shelter allowance - they just take it off your check.
What?? That's horrific. So they're just, like, "Well, you don't have a home, so why would you need money to pay for one?"
Yes, it is. A recent article on the Basic Income experiment profiled a woman in Hamilton who, because she was homeless and staying with a friend, received only about $330/month. She couldn't save first and last. Being sorted into the Basic income group, she had $1400/month - and could get an apartment and look for a job, because she wasn't spending all her time and money on barely surviving.
I hate fake fiscal conservatives like the PCs. In the end, they won't save any money - they will just punish the most marginal and likely still lose when those people show up in emergency more often, or cost more in health care even before 65. No so-called fiscally conservative government has balanced the books in my lifetime. They are just looking to transfer funds from those who need them to those who don't - just as ricochet biscuit points out.
It's class warfare of the nastiest kind, waged by the rich against the poor, with the cooperation of a hell of a lot of the middle class.
posted by jb at 12:08 PM on June 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
What?? That's horrific. So they're just, like, "Well, you don't have a home, so why would you need money to pay for one?"
Yes, it is. A recent article on the Basic Income experiment profiled a woman in Hamilton who, because she was homeless and staying with a friend, received only about $330/month. She couldn't save first and last. Being sorted into the Basic income group, she had $1400/month - and could get an apartment and look for a job, because she wasn't spending all her time and money on barely surviving.
I hate fake fiscal conservatives like the PCs. In the end, they won't save any money - they will just punish the most marginal and likely still lose when those people show up in emergency more often, or cost more in health care even before 65. No so-called fiscally conservative government has balanced the books in my lifetime. They are just looking to transfer funds from those who need them to those who don't - just as ricochet biscuit points out.
It's class warfare of the nastiest kind, waged by the rich against the poor, with the cooperation of a hell of a lot of the middle class.
posted by jb at 12:08 PM on June 8, 2018 [6 favorites]
This is after 15 years of Liberal majority government. I don't think we can blame Mike Harris anymore for it.
posted by clawsoon at 12:20 PM on June 8, 2018
posted by clawsoon at 12:20 PM on June 8, 2018
But with Doug Ford, maybe it’s for the best if he never finds out there’s a whole province out here.
That's the part that scares me most, actually. Doug Ford having to respond to a Walkerton. Doug Ford having to respond to an Ipperwash. Any crisis that requires a calm, measured response.
posted by Capt. Renault at 1:03 PM on June 8, 2018
That's the part that scares me most, actually. Doug Ford having to respond to a Walkerton. Doug Ford having to respond to an Ipperwash. Any crisis that requires a calm, measured response.
posted by Capt. Renault at 1:03 PM on June 8, 2018
Doug Ford having to respond to an Ipperwash.
I’d imagine his response would be remarkably like Mike Harris’s response, lest we forget:
On April 20, 2004 - more than eight years after the death of Dudley George - a public inquiry into the events surrounding his death opened. Seventeen groups and individuals were granted standing for the first part of the inquiry, giving them the right to call and cross-examine witnesses.
The evidence-gathering part of the inquiry stretched from 2004 through to 2006 and heard from more than 100 witnesses. Allegations of intolerance and impatience at the highest levels surfaced many times. But the biggest bombshell came from former attorney general Charles Harnick in November 2005. Harnick testified that former premier Mike Harris said "I want the f****** Indians out of the park," during a high level meeting about the Ipperwash occupation just hours before the fatal shooting of Dudley George.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 1:12 PM on June 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
I’d imagine his response would be remarkably like Mike Harris’s response, lest we forget:
On April 20, 2004 - more than eight years after the death of Dudley George - a public inquiry into the events surrounding his death opened. Seventeen groups and individuals were granted standing for the first part of the inquiry, giving them the right to call and cross-examine witnesses.
The evidence-gathering part of the inquiry stretched from 2004 through to 2006 and heard from more than 100 witnesses. Allegations of intolerance and impatience at the highest levels surfaced many times. But the biggest bombshell came from former attorney general Charles Harnick in November 2005. Harnick testified that former premier Mike Harris said "I want the f****** Indians out of the park," during a high level meeting about the Ipperwash occupation just hours before the fatal shooting of Dudley George.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 1:12 PM on June 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
→ At least your autocratic misogynist asshole leader doesn't have nukes.
Oh but he does.
He's likely going to relicense Pickering, a horrific money-pit of a leaker east of Toronto. It was due to run out of licence extensions in August, and most sensible engineers were suggesting it quietly be shut down. Not Dougie-boy: the Pickering station is essentially a safe seat in itself for whomever pays to keep it going.
Then there's Darlington. So monumentally late and expensive it forced the breakup on Ontario Hydro. Darlington 2 is on the planning board, but the province doesn't have the money for it. This kind of mega-project is right up Dougie-boy's alley: he'll give it the green light and let it be a problem for the next 10 administrations. Anything to stop those froggy megawatts creep in from Quebec.
And finally, the Bruce. Paid for by us, but leased for a tiny amount to a private consortium with all risk falling on the people of Ontario, including take-or-pay generation even if there isn't grid capacity for the power. I'm sure Dougie-boy will be all about increasing the term of that lease for free to his pals.
Remember what Ernie "Odo" Eves did for power prices … you ain't seen nothing yet!
posted by scruss at 5:48 PM on June 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
Oh but he does.
He's likely going to relicense Pickering, a horrific money-pit of a leaker east of Toronto. It was due to run out of licence extensions in August, and most sensible engineers were suggesting it quietly be shut down. Not Dougie-boy: the Pickering station is essentially a safe seat in itself for whomever pays to keep it going.
Then there's Darlington. So monumentally late and expensive it forced the breakup on Ontario Hydro. Darlington 2 is on the planning board, but the province doesn't have the money for it. This kind of mega-project is right up Dougie-boy's alley: he'll give it the green light and let it be a problem for the next 10 administrations. Anything to stop those froggy megawatts creep in from Quebec.
And finally, the Bruce. Paid for by us, but leased for a tiny amount to a private consortium with all risk falling on the people of Ontario, including take-or-pay generation even if there isn't grid capacity for the power. I'm sure Dougie-boy will be all about increasing the term of that lease for free to his pals.
Remember what Ernie "Odo" Eves did for power prices … you ain't seen nothing yet!
posted by scruss at 5:48 PM on June 8, 2018 [5 favorites]
Some observations regarding the Green Party win in Guelph:
Despite the decisive local victory here, the Greens overall had a 4.62% popular vote share province-wide. This is a slight drop from 2014 when they took 4.84%. if you subtract Guelph, their support in the rest of Ontario was 4.16%. they were consistently 4th place in every riding except for a couple of 3rds and a couple of 5ths.
But this win will only embolden them to continue, and given that they mainly siphon away would-be NDP voters it doesn't bode well for progressivism in the future. The left (or the faux-left Eco-Capitalism of the Greens) will be split for the foreseeable future. The best we can hope for is centrist Liberal governments and the odd minority.
But I know why Screiner won his seat here. He's a genuinely nice guy and great with people. Everyone who has met him likes him, myself included. And he has been visible at every public function, fair, festival, and gathering in the city for years. Put that up against relative unknowns (to most) and that's a slam dunk. He earned it, and he'll represent us well, but the future prospects look mighty bleak here.
posted by rocket88 at 6:39 PM on June 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
Despite the decisive local victory here, the Greens overall had a 4.62% popular vote share province-wide. This is a slight drop from 2014 when they took 4.84%. if you subtract Guelph, their support in the rest of Ontario was 4.16%. they were consistently 4th place in every riding except for a couple of 3rds and a couple of 5ths.
But this win will only embolden them to continue, and given that they mainly siphon away would-be NDP voters it doesn't bode well for progressivism in the future. The left (or the faux-left Eco-Capitalism of the Greens) will be split for the foreseeable future. The best we can hope for is centrist Liberal governments and the odd minority.
But I know why Screiner won his seat here. He's a genuinely nice guy and great with people. Everyone who has met him likes him, myself included. And he has been visible at every public function, fair, festival, and gathering in the city for years. Put that up against relative unknowns (to most) and that's a slam dunk. He earned it, and he'll represent us well, but the future prospects look mighty bleak here.
posted by rocket88 at 6:39 PM on June 8, 2018 [2 favorites]
So they're just, like, "Well, you don't have a home, so why would you need money to pay for one?"
Having been homeless and on welfare, yes, this is exactly what they are like. However, if the system is still the same as when I needed it, you don't need to save for first and last. If you somehow find a place to rent and the landlord is willing to sign the Intent -to- rent form (i.e. forcing you to disclose your welfare status to potential landlords even though it is illegal to discriminate for housing on this basis), they will provide a one-time allowance for the cost of first and last months rent. You can also rent from a family member, but you have to jump through a lot of beaurocratic hoops that are fairly easy for a middle class person who understands how to navigate beaurocracy but very very difficult for most people who actually need it.
What ends up happening is welfare recipients stay.at predatory and abusive homeless shelters where the shelter navigates the paperwork for you, takes the entire housing cost as "rent", distributes the remainder to you, less an administrative fee, as "personal needs allowance" at their discretion (I stayed at one where we were given a fraction of the funds daily... Literally, it was approximately $3 or $4/day not even enough to purchase a meal...), apply for additional government and private charity funding, food donations, and volunteers to run their operations on a shoestring, and pay themselves comfortable to very comfortable salaries, all the while jerking themselves off about what wonderful people they are. There are tons of inefficiencies, all right, but they aren't coming from the welfare recipients. I could write a book about the amount of bullshit abuse I've seen inside the system from the holier than thou social workers running it. Left wing SJW types and right wing Christian Saviour types. It's all bullshit.
posted by windykites at 8:13 PM on June 8, 2018 [9 favorites]
Having been homeless and on welfare, yes, this is exactly what they are like. However, if the system is still the same as when I needed it, you don't need to save for first and last. If you somehow find a place to rent and the landlord is willing to sign the Intent -to- rent form (i.e. forcing you to disclose your welfare status to potential landlords even though it is illegal to discriminate for housing on this basis), they will provide a one-time allowance for the cost of first and last months rent. You can also rent from a family member, but you have to jump through a lot of beaurocratic hoops that are fairly easy for a middle class person who understands how to navigate beaurocracy but very very difficult for most people who actually need it.
What ends up happening is welfare recipients stay.at predatory and abusive homeless shelters where the shelter navigates the paperwork for you, takes the entire housing cost as "rent", distributes the remainder to you, less an administrative fee, as "personal needs allowance" at their discretion (I stayed at one where we were given a fraction of the funds daily... Literally, it was approximately $3 or $4/day not even enough to purchase a meal...), apply for additional government and private charity funding, food donations, and volunteers to run their operations on a shoestring, and pay themselves comfortable to very comfortable salaries, all the while jerking themselves off about what wonderful people they are. There are tons of inefficiencies, all right, but they aren't coming from the welfare recipients. I could write a book about the amount of bullshit abuse I've seen inside the system from the holier than thou social workers running it. Left wing SJW types and right wing Christian Saviour types. It's all bullshit.
posted by windykites at 8:13 PM on June 8, 2018 [9 favorites]
Ashwagandha, it's too bad your wife didn't have a garden hose in-hand.
Fire extinguishers get the job done too.
posted by flabdablet at 8:59 AM on June 9, 2018
Fire extinguishers get the job done too.
posted by flabdablet at 8:59 AM on June 9, 2018
Stupid American question - when does the new government actually take office?
posted by Chrysostom at 12:19 PM on June 10, 2018
posted by Chrysostom at 12:19 PM on June 10, 2018
June 29th.
posted by Sys Rq at 1:09 PM on June 10, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by Sys Rq at 1:09 PM on June 10, 2018 [1 favorite]
That is an interesting way to frame it: I tend to think that it is relatively rare to have the same party on power in Queen’s Park and in Ottawa. I haven’t made systematic study but just in my lifetime I recall the big spans of the provincial Tories (Bill Davis) against the federal Liberals (Trudeau père), shifting in the early eighties to Peterson (then Rae) while Mulroney was PM. This swung back in the mid-nineties to Harris provincially counterposed against Chretien federally. The last decade and change was mostly McGuinty/Wynne in Queen’s Park while Harper was PM, so that, alas suggests Doug is in for a win on Thursday while Trudeau fils slowly (or not) accrues enough resentment to get voted out at some point.
I am about to hit the sack and am too drowsy to go check Wikipedia, but I think this last twenty months of Trudeau and Wynne is the longest stretch in fifty years of the federal and provincial levels of the party holding both offices.
Incidentally, I spent a half hour with Wikipedia and Excel. If you go back to 1943, when the Big Blue Machine began its forty-two-year run of Conservative government in Ontario and count up to now, 83% of the time the parties on Parliament Hill and Queen's Park have been different parties.
This stretch of course counts Dief's six years as PM from 57-63 (when Frost and then Robarts served as premier). If you start from when Diefenbaker left and Pearson became PM, it is about 89% to 11%. And the thirty months or so of Wynne/Trudeau is indeed the longest period of one party holding both spots since Dief lost, 55 years ago.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 3:31 PM on June 11, 2018 [5 favorites]
I am about to hit the sack and am too drowsy to go check Wikipedia, but I think this last twenty months of Trudeau and Wynne is the longest stretch in fifty years of the federal and provincial levels of the party holding both offices.
Incidentally, I spent a half hour with Wikipedia and Excel. If you go back to 1943, when the Big Blue Machine began its forty-two-year run of Conservative government in Ontario and count up to now, 83% of the time the parties on Parliament Hill and Queen's Park have been different parties.
This stretch of course counts Dief's six years as PM from 57-63 (when Frost and then Robarts served as premier). If you start from when Diefenbaker left and Pearson became PM, it is about 89% to 11%. And the thirty months or so of Wynne/Trudeau is indeed the longest period of one party holding both spots since Dief lost, 55 years ago.
posted by ricochet biscuit at 3:31 PM on June 11, 2018 [5 favorites]
→ And laugh when the Tories get rid of cap and trade and the feds replace it with an actual carbon tax.
Doug Ford vows to scrap Ontario's cap-and-trade program as his 1st act as premier
this is so stupid: a ton of energy efficiency revenue comes from cap and trade
posted by scruss at 7:24 PM on June 15, 2018 [1 favorite]
Doug Ford vows to scrap Ontario's cap-and-trade program as his 1st act as premier
this is so stupid: a ton of energy efficiency revenue comes from cap and trade
posted by scruss at 7:24 PM on June 15, 2018 [1 favorite]
scruss: this is so stupid: a ton of energy efficiency revenue comes from cap and trade
I've been realizing lately how much the division here in Ontario (and not only here, I'm sure) is between car culture and non-car culture. People who depend on their cars, people who are hanging on to sanity and solvency because cars allow them to live in cheap places on low wages, recognize that Doug Ford is for cars, and therefore for them. Taxes on carbon are a direct and visceral threat to them, and they know that Ford shares their visceral reaction.
posted by clawsoon at 7:01 AM on June 16, 2018 [4 favorites]
I've been realizing lately how much the division here in Ontario (and not only here, I'm sure) is between car culture and non-car culture. People who depend on their cars, people who are hanging on to sanity and solvency because cars allow them to live in cheap places on low wages, recognize that Doug Ford is for cars, and therefore for them. Taxes on carbon are a direct and visceral threat to them, and they know that Ford shares their visceral reaction.
posted by clawsoon at 7:01 AM on June 16, 2018 [4 favorites]
What would the Ontario election results look like under a different voting system?
In this article, the translation of the popular vote into seats in the Ontario Legislature under the current First-Past-the-Post system is compared with the results that would be generated under three alternative electoral systems: Proportional Representation, Mixed Member Proportional, and Parallel Voting.
posted by New Frontier at 12:53 PM on June 18, 2018 [3 favorites]
In this article, the translation of the popular vote into seats in the Ontario Legislature under the current First-Past-the-Post system is compared with the results that would be generated under three alternative electoral systems: Proportional Representation, Mixed Member Proportional, and Parallel Voting.
posted by New Frontier at 12:53 PM on June 18, 2018 [3 favorites]
Interesting analyses, New Frontier. It's too bad that the raw vote counts don't tell us what result a ranked ballot would produce.
posted by clawsoon at 5:00 PM on June 18, 2018
posted by clawsoon at 5:00 PM on June 18, 2018
The hiring freeze may fuck up a job offer which we desperately need. I am honestly having a very hard time containing my rage.
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:29 PM on June 18, 2018 [1 favorite]
posted by seanmpuckett at 6:29 PM on June 18, 2018 [1 favorite]
When my mother & I were discussing Doug Ford's election to the office of Ontario Premier just after it happened, she said, "Oh, he won't last long!" Alas, there is no real grounds for such optimism. There is no precedent/mechanism for removing an Ontario premier from office, and given that he has a majority government (for those who aren't familiar with the parliamentary system, minority governments can be forced to call an election by a majority coalition non-confidence vote), we're almost certainly stuck with DoFo for the next four years.
But....
I *can* think of a few scenarios that might get Doug Ford out of office before 2022. Unfortunately, although they are technically possible, they are a very long shot in practical terms.
In the first scenario, if Doug Ford gets convicted for a crime serious enough that he has to serve prison time he might resign. I can't imagine that Doug Ford will resign his office for any conviction that doesn't involve jail time, because he's shameless, but even he will have to concede that he can't run the province from jail. BUT this would involve both for him to have committed a crime serious enough to require prison and a lengthy investigation and prosecution process. It seems unlikely that both conditions will be met within the next four years.
In the second scenario, the PCs lose their majority government because enough PC MPPs get fed up enough with Doug Ford to resign from the PCs & either join the NDPs or the Libs or sit as independents. A coalition of NDP, Libs, Green Party and independents could then force another election with a non-confidence vote. But again, this is extremely unlikely as it would take 14 PCs to tip the balance, and then the PCs might just win the election again with new candidates.
(Not that I'll be surprised if a *few* PC MPPs cross the floor or go independent out of sheer frustration. No one likes Doug, he doesn't know what he's doing, and there's going to be major infighting and raised hackles in the PC party.)
The third "getting Doug Ford out of office" scenario is caucus revolt. This actually happened to Liberal Premier Gordan Daniel Conant in 1943. Originally appointed leader by his predecessor, he called a leadership convention after a caucus revolt and subsequently lost the leadership convention to his successor. (Former Canadian prime minister Jean Chrétien had to resign both as prime minister and as Liberal party leader due to the threat of a caucus revolt in 2003.) However, the caucus revolt scenario ultimately requires Doug Ford to step down voluntarily and I can't see him doing that. Again, the man is shameless. And belligerent. He will never heed "honour system"-type rules. Hell, I'll be amazed if he heeds the actual law while in office. He certainly violated several election laws during his campaign.
This is going to be a long and rough four years, so hang tight Ontarians, and consider getting politically involved in some way if you can.
posted by orange swan at 8:18 PM on June 29, 2018 [2 favorites]
But....
I *can* think of a few scenarios that might get Doug Ford out of office before 2022. Unfortunately, although they are technically possible, they are a very long shot in practical terms.
In the first scenario, if Doug Ford gets convicted for a crime serious enough that he has to serve prison time he might resign. I can't imagine that Doug Ford will resign his office for any conviction that doesn't involve jail time, because he's shameless, but even he will have to concede that he can't run the province from jail. BUT this would involve both for him to have committed a crime serious enough to require prison and a lengthy investigation and prosecution process. It seems unlikely that both conditions will be met within the next four years.
In the second scenario, the PCs lose their majority government because enough PC MPPs get fed up enough with Doug Ford to resign from the PCs & either join the NDPs or the Libs or sit as independents. A coalition of NDP, Libs, Green Party and independents could then force another election with a non-confidence vote. But again, this is extremely unlikely as it would take 14 PCs to tip the balance, and then the PCs might just win the election again with new candidates.
(Not that I'll be surprised if a *few* PC MPPs cross the floor or go independent out of sheer frustration. No one likes Doug, he doesn't know what he's doing, and there's going to be major infighting and raised hackles in the PC party.)
The third "getting Doug Ford out of office" scenario is caucus revolt. This actually happened to Liberal Premier Gordan Daniel Conant in 1943. Originally appointed leader by his predecessor, he called a leadership convention after a caucus revolt and subsequently lost the leadership convention to his successor. (Former Canadian prime minister Jean Chrétien had to resign both as prime minister and as Liberal party leader due to the threat of a caucus revolt in 2003.) However, the caucus revolt scenario ultimately requires Doug Ford to step down voluntarily and I can't see him doing that. Again, the man is shameless. And belligerent. He will never heed "honour system"-type rules. Hell, I'll be amazed if he heeds the actual law while in office. He certainly violated several election laws during his campaign.
This is going to be a long and rough four years, so hang tight Ontarians, and consider getting politically involved in some way if you can.
posted by orange swan at 8:18 PM on June 29, 2018 [2 favorites]
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It's gonna be interesting here in Kingston and the Islands as it has been a Liberal bastion (well, in the city anyway) for ages. I really like Sophie Kiwala as a person and a rep, but the Liberal party has really shit the bed recently. The Greens seem to have a strong showing here right now too.
My partner is calling a Tory majority; I think maybe a minority.
posted by Kitteh at 6:24 AM on June 5, 2018 [7 favorites]