Energy transition's age of abundance: No one will fight wars over solar
July 31, 2022 1:49 AM Subscribe
After Going Solar, I Felt the Bliss of Sudden Abundance [ungated] - "My rooftop panels showed me that a world powered by renewables would be an overflowing horn of plenty, with fast, sporty cars and comfy homes."
I no longer walk around finger-wagging at my family members. Want to blast the AC? Crank away. It’s coming from the sun, and I can’t use all that electricity even if I try. And I’ve tried! I’ve charged an electric bike, run multiple loads of laundry, had many computers and a game system and a TV going, and still those panels were kicking out a net surplus. I’ve idly thought of running a power strip out to the sidewalk with a sign saying “FREE ELECTRICITY,” just to be the Johnny Appleseed of solar.Futurologist Jeremy Rifkin: 'This will be the last war over fossil fuels' [ungated/DL translate] - "The economist and best-selling author believes the Ukraine war will accelerate the energy transition. He says Germany must powerfully build a new energy infrastructure."[1]
In essence, I went from a feeling of scarcity to a sense of abundance.
And it occurs to me that this is, really, an emotional shift we ought to foreground when we promote renewables.
So what's stopping us? We are stopped by old geopolitics. Political interests that don't want to say goodbye to old industries...solar punk fully automated luxury gay space communism?
That's what the Ukraine war has done: it finally gets us away from geopolitics, where it's always about controlling fossil fuels. We've had so many wars that were about coal, oil, and gas. So many millions of people have died. When we move toward solar and wind, something changes: solar and wind are everywhere.
- @ramez: "Great thread on hydrogen efficiency improving. Along with declining electrolyzer capex and declining renewables costs, this will lead to lower overall green hydrogen costs. Good for industrial decarbonization, ultra-long duration storage, and electrofuels, among other uses."
- A Green Hydrogen Economy Depends on This Little-Known Machine [ungated] - "The electrolyzer, obscure for decades, sees its sales soar. Here's how the technology works."
- All-in-one solar tower produces jet fuel from CO2, water and sunlight - "Taking carbon dioxide, water and sunlight as its only inputs, this solar thermal tower in Spain produces carbon-neutral, sustainable versions of diesel and jet fuel. Built and tested by researchers at ETH Zurich, it's a promising clean fuel project."
- Fusion tech is set to unlock near-limitless ultra-deep geothermal energy - "MIT spin-off Quaise says it's going to use hijacked fusion technology to drill the deepest holes in history, unlocking clean, virtually limitless, supercritical geothermal energy that can re-power fossil-fueled power plants all over the world."
- Tapping into the million-year energy source below our feet - "MIT spinout Quaise Energy is working to create geothermal wells made from the deepest holes in the world."[2]
- The Man Who Killed Millions and Saved Billions - "Fritz Haber is the scientist who arguably most transformed the world."
- @peterwildeford: "On this scale, only the industrial revolution has mattered."[3]
- The world is awful. The world is much better. The world can be much better. - "It is wrong to think that these three statements contradict each other. We need to see that they are all true to see that a better world is possible."
The Australian goverments (state and federal) are absolutely shitting themselves over solar. There's the fact we still export stupid amounts of coal, but more pressingly our grid is designed in a very spread-out, decidedly one way manner.
We have sun all year round, especially in the north, and the grid has been sitting close to collapse on very high generation days. Two states (WA and SA) have given the power regulators the ability to remotely deactivate domestic solar panels.
The problem is not generation itself, but rather the national transmission infrastructure has been neglected by almost a decade of tightarse governments, so there's no investment in the national grid. Domestic batteries are still crazy expensive, and there's the odd bit of talk of community scale batteries but little actual action to decentralize things more efficiently. Why would they? The power market is lucrative. Why break it up into little bits that are self-sustaining but ultimately unprofitable to the usual suspects?
Like all this power is right there and we'd rather wring our hands than do anything about it. I'm about to move to a new place with a full set of solar panels (not sure the specs yet) and I'm overjoyed at the prospect of cutting our power bill back.
posted by Jilder at 2:19 AM on July 31, 2022 [18 favorites]
We have sun all year round, especially in the north, and the grid has been sitting close to collapse on very high generation days. Two states (WA and SA) have given the power regulators the ability to remotely deactivate domestic solar panels.
The problem is not generation itself, but rather the national transmission infrastructure has been neglected by almost a decade of tightarse governments, so there's no investment in the national grid. Domestic batteries are still crazy expensive, and there's the odd bit of talk of community scale batteries but little actual action to decentralize things more efficiently. Why would they? The power market is lucrative. Why break it up into little bits that are self-sustaining but ultimately unprofitable to the usual suspects?
Like all this power is right there and we'd rather wring our hands than do anything about it. I'm about to move to a new place with a full set of solar panels (not sure the specs yet) and I'm overjoyed at the prospect of cutting our power bill back.
posted by Jilder at 2:19 AM on July 31, 2022 [18 favorites]
Jilder, if you haven't already, give Australia, if you're listening a listen- ABC podcast with Matt Bevan all about our coal addiction.
posted by freethefeet at 2:53 AM on July 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by freethefeet at 2:53 AM on July 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
In the US, solar just hit a milestone: It now generates more electricity than hydro. Meanwhile in that same chart, you can see that coal had several months where it was used less than nuclear, and that wind will likely start producing more than either within two years.
'Sand battery' could solve green energy's big problem
Green transition knock on effects: forty percent of the world’s shipping... consists of just sending fossil fuels around the world to be burned.
posted by gwint at 2:58 AM on July 31, 2022 [36 favorites]
'Sand battery' could solve green energy's big problem
Green transition knock on effects: forty percent of the world’s shipping... consists of just sending fossil fuels around the world to be burned.
posted by gwint at 2:58 AM on July 31, 2022 [36 favorites]
We just built an addition to our house, but the budget didn't stretch all the way to addition of solar, but at least we put in the necessary wiring infrastructure. Here the wait is about 1-1.5 years for installation, so I'm going to just order a survey and get in line for actual installation while we save up the funds.
posted by Harald74 at 4:31 AM on July 31, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 4:31 AM on July 31, 2022 [7 favorites]
So, no one will fight wars over the rare materials needed to construct solar panels? Seems like some last-mile thinking to me.
Solar and Wind are essential, but thinking they'll stop global warfare is naive. Our next geopolitical wars may not be about fossil fuels anymore; instead they'll be about land that hasn't gotten too hot to live on. Instead they'll be about food scarcity in the face of climate change.
posted by I-Write-Essays at 4:31 AM on July 31, 2022 [37 favorites]
Solar and Wind are essential, but thinking they'll stop global warfare is naive. Our next geopolitical wars may not be about fossil fuels anymore; instead they'll be about land that hasn't gotten too hot to live on. Instead they'll be about food scarcity in the face of climate change.
posted by I-Write-Essays at 4:31 AM on July 31, 2022 [37 favorites]
Solar and Wind are essential, but thinking they'll stop global warfare is naive.
Is that what the article claimed?
posted by lazaruslong at 4:47 AM on July 31, 2022 [10 favorites]
Is that what the article claimed?
posted by lazaruslong at 4:47 AM on July 31, 2022 [10 favorites]
No. Just the post title, I think. Also, the last section of David Mitchell’s Bone Clocks (in the future) incudes a scenario where gangs come around to your house to strip off your solar panels.
But apart from the post title, it’s good to see more and more solar. We’ll probably still cook ourselves but it’ll take longer.
We’ve got panels and generate more than we use for a little more than half the year. (I hate it when it’s a bright sunny day but there’s 6” of snow on the panels.) The difference between our summer and winter electric bills is shocking.
posted by MtDewd at 4:52 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
But apart from the post title, it’s good to see more and more solar. We’ll probably still cook ourselves but it’ll take longer.
We’ve got panels and generate more than we use for a little more than half the year. (I hate it when it’s a bright sunny day but there’s 6” of snow on the panels.) The difference between our summer and winter electric bills is shocking.
posted by MtDewd at 4:52 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
The sudden abundance is a familiar feeling. Think of all the things we used to have a meter running for, like telephone calls or computer processing power.
But this fella' called Jevons has a thing or two to say about this phenomenon. If solar power does make electricity cheap and ubiquitous, then why should appliance manufacturers meet any energy consumption standards? Why would you choose a more expensive joulethrift of a device when you've got ergs coming out your ears? And after all if we use up all our solar capacity we do have all these other energy sources laying about...
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 5:06 AM on July 31, 2022 [14 favorites]
But this fella' called Jevons has a thing or two to say about this phenomenon. If solar power does make electricity cheap and ubiquitous, then why should appliance manufacturers meet any energy consumption standards? Why would you choose a more expensive joulethrift of a device when you've got ergs coming out your ears? And after all if we use up all our solar capacity we do have all these other energy sources laying about...
posted by rum-soaked space hobo at 5:06 AM on July 31, 2022 [14 favorites]
rare materials needed to construct solar panels
If anyone is interested in a sobering overview on this topic, see The Hard Math of Minerals by Mark P. Mills. A particularly nightmare-fuel excerpt:
posted by daveliepmann at 5:42 AM on July 31, 2022 [25 favorites]
If anyone is interested in a sobering overview on this topic, see The Hard Math of Minerals by Mark P. Mills. A particularly nightmare-fuel excerpt:
In a recent report from the Geological Survey of Finland, researchers considered the minerals implications for achieving a so-called full transition; that is, using solar and wind to electrify all ground transport as well as to produce hydrogen for both aviation and chemical processes. They found the resulting demand for nearly every necessary mineral, including common ones such as copper, nickel, graphite, and lithium, would exceed not just existing and planned global production capabilities, but also known global reserves of those minerals.If you dig into this stuff you'll also find eye-popping facts like that we need to produce something like 5x our current non-fossil-fuel power output, which dovetails somewhat poorly with the ~20x greater land usage of solar/wind electricity production. (See the penultimate chart in this pdf.) Hint: solar & wind are great, but consider nuclear.
posted by daveliepmann at 5:42 AM on July 31, 2022 [25 favorites]
If solar power does make electricity cheap and ubiquitous, then why should appliance manufacturers meet any energy consumption standards? Why would you choose a more expensive joulethrift of a device when you've got ergs coming out your ears?
Some governments will keep on mandating efficiency; I'd be surprised if the EU didn't. For good reasons and because more localized and distributed generation will allow them to reduce capital investment in the grid and, where that's a thing, government investment in new generation.
But also because a predominantly solar future in much of the world is likely to be one where power is free while you're on your own solar, then cheap while you're on localish solar and wind, and then suddenly very expensive when you have to buy nuclear power or the system fires up a heavily-taxed gas peaker plant. Keeping your household in the free+cheap zones is probably going to keep being important.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:06 AM on July 31, 2022 [13 favorites]
Some governments will keep on mandating efficiency; I'd be surprised if the EU didn't. For good reasons and because more localized and distributed generation will allow them to reduce capital investment in the grid and, where that's a thing, government investment in new generation.
But also because a predominantly solar future in much of the world is likely to be one where power is free while you're on your own solar, then cheap while you're on localish solar and wind, and then suddenly very expensive when you have to buy nuclear power or the system fires up a heavily-taxed gas peaker plant. Keeping your household in the free+cheap zones is probably going to keep being important.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:06 AM on July 31, 2022 [13 favorites]
Any ideas for how someone who rents an apartment could get in on the solar option?....
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:08 AM on July 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by EmpressCallipygos at 6:08 AM on July 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
Yeah, solar for renters is a lot more complicated, and who the fuck can afford a house now? I sure can’t.
It sure would be nice if the window AC units in my New Orleans rental were powered by the sun beating down on the roof, though. I wonder if I can talk to the landlord about it. Without giving them an excuse to raise my rent more than I’d save by no longer paying Entergy. I will be very surprised if there’s any state funds to help this what with being in a red state, and in a city where extracting oil from the Gulf is a significant part of the economy...
posted by egypturnash at 6:13 AM on July 31, 2022 [7 favorites]
It sure would be nice if the window AC units in my New Orleans rental were powered by the sun beating down on the roof, though. I wonder if I can talk to the landlord about it. Without giving them an excuse to raise my rent more than I’d save by no longer paying Entergy. I will be very surprised if there’s any state funds to help this what with being in a red state, and in a city where extracting oil from the Gulf is a significant part of the economy...
posted by egypturnash at 6:13 AM on July 31, 2022 [7 favorites]
Any ideas for how someone who rents an apartment could get in on the solar option?....
Community Solar. You'll still have to pay distribution but you can get cheaper generation.
We put in a massive solar system a few years ago and the article is entirely right. Every house with the proper azimuth should have an array on top.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:17 AM on July 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
Community Solar. You'll still have to pay distribution but you can get cheaper generation.
We put in a massive solar system a few years ago and the article is entirely right. Every house with the proper azimuth should have an array on top.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:17 AM on July 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
Any ideas for how someone who rents an apartment could get in on the solar option?....
See if there are any Community Solar projects in your area. If not, most states allow you to pick green electricity plans from your energy supplier (although solar specifically is not always available-- it's very dependent on where you live-- hydro and/or wind are often available if solar is not)
On preview: Ah, jinx Your Childhood Pet Rock
posted by gwint at 6:18 AM on July 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
See if there are any Community Solar projects in your area. If not, most states allow you to pick green electricity plans from your energy supplier (although solar specifically is not always available-- it's very dependent on where you live-- hydro and/or wind are often available if solar is not)
On preview: Ah, jinx Your Childhood Pet Rock
posted by gwint at 6:18 AM on July 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
Why would you choose a more expensive joulethrift of a device when you've got ergs coming out your ears?
Because you don't always have ergs coming out your ears, and consistent joulethrift will let you get by with smaller, cheaper batteries.
posted by flabdablet at 6:21 AM on July 31, 2022 [10 favorites]
Because you don't always have ergs coming out your ears, and consistent joulethrift will let you get by with smaller, cheaper batteries.
posted by flabdablet at 6:21 AM on July 31, 2022 [10 favorites]
Our neighborhood covenants (written around 2006) forbid solar panels. And getting them amended is, apparently, slightly less possible than achieving faster-than-light travel. I have a large, unobstructed expanse of roof facing south that is begging to have panels put in place.
posted by Thorzdad at 6:25 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Thorzdad at 6:25 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
a predominantly solar future in much of the world is likely to be one where power is free while you're on your own solar, then cheap while you're on localish solar and wind, and then suddenly very expensive when you have to buy nuclear power or the system fires up a heavily-taxed gas peaker plant. Keeping your household in the free+cheap zones is probably going to keep being important.
That future is here right now at our house, because we have access to a retailer that implements that very model. We've been finding that shifting our power demand to times when power is cheapest is often not a nuisance, and that the times we choose not to shift it and just pay through the nose for expensive power happen infrequently enough that we're still saving substantial amounts of money compared to paying our previous retailer their fixed rate that didn't depend on generation conditions.
posted by flabdablet at 6:27 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
That future is here right now at our house, because we have access to a retailer that implements that very model. We've been finding that shifting our power demand to times when power is cheapest is often not a nuisance, and that the times we choose not to shift it and just pay through the nose for expensive power happen infrequently enough that we're still saving substantial amounts of money compared to paying our previous retailer their fixed rate that didn't depend on generation conditions.
posted by flabdablet at 6:27 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'm looking forward to putting solar on our house at some point, hopefully sooner rather than later. What's holding me back (aside from the usual pandemic-related delays and costs) is that the roof, while in good shape, is getting older and I don't want to get into a situation where the solar installation has to be redone soon after the original installation. But it may be worth it to just accept that risk and get the solar installed.
But while I think it's great to put panels on houses, the solution at the grid scale is in massively increasing the number of utility-scale solar farms. Those are what have the capacity to shift energy production from fossil fuels to renewables, benefiting everyone including renters or others who can't realistically put panels on their dwelling.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:05 AM on July 31, 2022
But while I think it's great to put panels on houses, the solution at the grid scale is in massively increasing the number of utility-scale solar farms. Those are what have the capacity to shift energy production from fossil fuels to renewables, benefiting everyone including renters or others who can't realistically put panels on their dwelling.
posted by Dip Flash at 7:05 AM on July 31, 2022
How I Learned to Stop Worrying and Love the Global Warming
posted by Lanark at 7:10 AM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Lanark at 7:10 AM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
The future is going to be very different. A couple bits to consider:
* Someone up above provided the link about global shipping... There's a LOT of things that will change in that space. We won't need to move fossil fuels around in massive quantities. But we also won't need to move fossil fuels to power the ships themselves. Similar to rocketry, a large amount of a ship's departure tonnage is dedicated to carrying its own fuel. And it's more efficient (economically) to build larger ships as a result. In the renewable world, ships can be smaller, and we'll hopefully get away from concentration of shipping to just a few ports.
* This article on fuel synthesis from co2+solar power is also great for considering just how different things might look in a dominantly-renewable world. Basically, once solar power is cheap enough, it makes sense to synthesize hydrocarbons instead of pulling them out of the ground. It's extremely energy intensive, but the sun keeps shining, so... you just hook up lots of solar power to fuel your airplanes. It's ultimately carbon neutral, since the co2 is being pulled from the air. This is likely a great space to witness Jevon's paradox in action.
* Meanwhile, the raw energy needed with electrified systems is less than for hydrocarbon systems, which are far more wasteful of their stored energy. More heat than light, you might say.
* Solar and wind installations can co-exist with agricultural use, and is advantageous for many crops which prefer some shade.
* Mineral shortages are worth worrying about, but I think we'll see serious efforts at replacement or improved efficiencies as it becomes a problem. For example, we already have pretty good methods for pulling lithium from seawater, with more being invented all the time.
Micro-rant on nuclear:
Nuclear has really serious scaling problems. powering everything with nuclear would pretty quickly run out uranium supplies, and alternatives for nuclear fuel are far better explored than in the renewables space. The situation for fusion is comically bad, and Thorium reactors never seem to actually arrive, despite decades of assurances. Also consider that nuclear is constrained on fuel, while solar will be constrained on producing new cells: it may eventually become more expensive to make new solar cells, but existing cells will keep producing power. Fuel shortages are a much worse situation: existing facilities become more expensive to use. We might see a world where nuclear fills some gaps, but it's still far too expensive and uncertain to consider as a core solution for climate change.
posted by kaibutsu at 7:11 AM on July 31, 2022 [30 favorites]
* Someone up above provided the link about global shipping... There's a LOT of things that will change in that space. We won't need to move fossil fuels around in massive quantities. But we also won't need to move fossil fuels to power the ships themselves. Similar to rocketry, a large amount of a ship's departure tonnage is dedicated to carrying its own fuel. And it's more efficient (economically) to build larger ships as a result. In the renewable world, ships can be smaller, and we'll hopefully get away from concentration of shipping to just a few ports.
* This article on fuel synthesis from co2+solar power is also great for considering just how different things might look in a dominantly-renewable world. Basically, once solar power is cheap enough, it makes sense to synthesize hydrocarbons instead of pulling them out of the ground. It's extremely energy intensive, but the sun keeps shining, so... you just hook up lots of solar power to fuel your airplanes. It's ultimately carbon neutral, since the co2 is being pulled from the air. This is likely a great space to witness Jevon's paradox in action.
* Meanwhile, the raw energy needed with electrified systems is less than for hydrocarbon systems, which are far more wasteful of their stored energy. More heat than light, you might say.
* Solar and wind installations can co-exist with agricultural use, and is advantageous for many crops which prefer some shade.
* Mineral shortages are worth worrying about, but I think we'll see serious efforts at replacement or improved efficiencies as it becomes a problem. For example, we already have pretty good methods for pulling lithium from seawater, with more being invented all the time.
Micro-rant on nuclear:
Nuclear has really serious scaling problems. powering everything with nuclear would pretty quickly run out uranium supplies, and alternatives for nuclear fuel are far better explored than in the renewables space. The situation for fusion is comically bad, and Thorium reactors never seem to actually arrive, despite decades of assurances. Also consider that nuclear is constrained on fuel, while solar will be constrained on producing new cells: it may eventually become more expensive to make new solar cells, but existing cells will keep producing power. Fuel shortages are a much worse situation: existing facilities become more expensive to use. We might see a world where nuclear fills some gaps, but it's still far too expensive and uncertain to consider as a core solution for climate change.
posted by kaibutsu at 7:11 AM on July 31, 2022 [30 favorites]
I’ve been waiting for the day that some municipality, possibly in California, passes new building codes that mandate a certain kWh-of-solar-generation-per-square-footage-of-construction for every new building. And then this kicks off a trend where other municipalities begin to do the same, until it’s a widespread practice. It might add 5-10% to the cost of a new home up front, which would be included in the mortgage, but that would be offset by the reduction in monthly utility costs.
It’s not a perfect plan. Older structures would be grandfathered into no-solar, and there’s the question of how to mandate and pay for repair and replacement, etc. But it seems like mandating solar isn’t that far a stretch, politically, from mandating low-flow toilets or no-lawn-watering days.
posted by darkstar at 7:11 AM on July 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
It’s not a perfect plan. Older structures would be grandfathered into no-solar, and there’s the question of how to mandate and pay for repair and replacement, etc. But it seems like mandating solar isn’t that far a stretch, politically, from mandating low-flow toilets or no-lawn-watering days.
posted by darkstar at 7:11 AM on July 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
Also from Wired, two years ago: Solar Panels Are Starting to Die, Leaving Behind Toxic Trash.
posted by BWA at 7:12 AM on July 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by BWA at 7:12 AM on July 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
I'm a fan of the abundance agenda that Griffith and others expound. It is very good psychology, at least for Americans. So much of 70s-era environmentalism is about scolding and deprivation. You are a bad person for flushing your toilet after you tinkle. You shouldn't use bright lights, replace that 75W incadescent with a 58W-equivalent fluorescent and you're the problem if you don't like the weird light that isn't quite bright enough to read by. Yuck.
2020s energy options are mu ch better. Solar panels are basically just inert slabs of rock sitting on your roof magically producing free electricity. LED bulbs are great; better light than incandescents at 1/10th the power. I now have solar in my house and recently installed LEDs. I no longer worry about turning the lights off if I've left a room for 10 minutes. My kitchen went from 600W to 60W for lighting and meanwhile I'm generating up to 10,000W.
The question is whether this abundance is feeling of false, whether it would be better if it were shared. Availability of solar panels is a question; solar abundance is only available to people who can afford to own a home and the extra $20,000 to install solar on the roof.
But the bigger problem is the only reason I have all this spare electricity lying around is because there's no place to store it. The book Electrify referenced in the article goes into great detail about this. Batteries still are expensive and not efficient enough. Pumped hydro has barriers to expanding capacity. Storage is an urgent problem.
new building codes that mandate a certain kWh-of-solar-generation-per-square-footage-of-construction for every new building
California is halfway there; it's called the Solar Mandate and it took effect in 2020.
Our neighborhood covenants (written around 2006) forbid solar panels.
That's not uncommon. It's also evil. California has a law preventing HOAs from doing that. I wonder why other states like Oregon don't.
posted by Nelson at 7:21 AM on July 31, 2022 [15 favorites]
2020s energy options are mu ch better. Solar panels are basically just inert slabs of rock sitting on your roof magically producing free electricity. LED bulbs are great; better light than incandescents at 1/10th the power. I now have solar in my house and recently installed LEDs. I no longer worry about turning the lights off if I've left a room for 10 minutes. My kitchen went from 600W to 60W for lighting and meanwhile I'm generating up to 10,000W.
The question is whether this abundance is feeling of false, whether it would be better if it were shared. Availability of solar panels is a question; solar abundance is only available to people who can afford to own a home and the extra $20,000 to install solar on the roof.
But the bigger problem is the only reason I have all this spare electricity lying around is because there's no place to store it. The book Electrify referenced in the article goes into great detail about this. Batteries still are expensive and not efficient enough. Pumped hydro has barriers to expanding capacity. Storage is an urgent problem.
new building codes that mandate a certain kWh-of-solar-generation-per-square-footage-of-construction for every new building
California is halfway there; it's called the Solar Mandate and it took effect in 2020.
Our neighborhood covenants (written around 2006) forbid solar panels.
That's not uncommon. It's also evil. California has a law preventing HOAs from doing that. I wonder why other states like Oregon don't.
posted by Nelson at 7:21 AM on July 31, 2022 [15 favorites]
We might see a world where nuclear fills some gaps, but it's still far too expensive and uncertain to consider as a core solution for climate change.
Pretty much. The problem is that implementing nuclear for climate change needed to be done 40-50 years ago. We needed to have coal, gas, and oil base load plants being taken offline for the past 40-50 years. The carbon has already been burnt. If we had money going into Gen IV fast breeder reactors in the '80s and 90s we'd be sitting pretty right now and able to electrify everything at our leisure but it's basically crying over spilt milk.
However, it still has a role to play in terms of isolated grids in harsh areas. Alaska's grid for instance is not going to decarbonize without a carbon-free base load. Six months of the year solar is poor to non-existent and if the wind stops they're basically back to battery or hydrocarbons. Fairbanks can't pull power from the wind on the Great Plains or the sun of the southwest because local generation is down. To decarbonize the only real practical solution is small nuclear.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:51 AM on July 31, 2022 [10 favorites]
Pretty much. The problem is that implementing nuclear for climate change needed to be done 40-50 years ago. We needed to have coal, gas, and oil base load plants being taken offline for the past 40-50 years. The carbon has already been burnt. If we had money going into Gen IV fast breeder reactors in the '80s and 90s we'd be sitting pretty right now and able to electrify everything at our leisure but it's basically crying over spilt milk.
However, it still has a role to play in terms of isolated grids in harsh areas. Alaska's grid for instance is not going to decarbonize without a carbon-free base load. Six months of the year solar is poor to non-existent and if the wind stops they're basically back to battery or hydrocarbons. Fairbanks can't pull power from the wind on the Great Plains or the sun of the southwest because local generation is down. To decarbonize the only real practical solution is small nuclear.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:51 AM on July 31, 2022 [10 favorites]
An old The Onion article from 2014:
Scientists Politely Remind World That Clean Energy Technology Ready To Go Whenever
posted by AlSweigart at 7:52 AM on July 31, 2022 [15 favorites]
Scientists Politely Remind World That Clean Energy Technology Ready To Go Whenever
posted by AlSweigart at 7:52 AM on July 31, 2022 [15 favorites]
To decarbonize the only real practical solution is small nuclear.
Speaking of which...
posted by Thorzdad at 8:04 AM on July 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
Speaking of which...
posted by Thorzdad at 8:04 AM on July 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
re: utility scale battery storage... progress in CA:
Suitable for framing: On July 9 at 7:35 pm, battery storage hit a all-time high with 2.52 GW discharging in California's grid--even pulling ahead of nuclear for a moment.
posted by gwint at 8:07 AM on July 31, 2022 [9 favorites]
Suitable for framing: On July 9 at 7:35 pm, battery storage hit a all-time high with 2.52 GW discharging in California's grid--even pulling ahead of nuclear for a moment.
posted by gwint at 8:07 AM on July 31, 2022 [9 favorites]
Our rooftop solar has put out 86.24MwH since we put it in. I feel this story. While we have been charging electric cars, and have an electric heat pump, (yay A/C for the one week a year we need it), and a solar hot water system, (bad investment these days). we are still saving money on our electricity bill.
Nuclear? Please...
posted by Windopaene at 8:26 AM on July 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
Nuclear? Please...
posted by Windopaene at 8:26 AM on July 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
I feel like building new nuclear power plant might not be the way to go but decommissioning existing ones in places where no other solution is currently in place purely for “environnemental” reasons is just supremely dumb. And this looks like what Germany did from what my European friends keep telling me, which I guess is just made that much worse with the war in Ukraine and the sanctions we’d like to put on Russia.
I don’t think we’ll ever install solar panels on our house, roof slope is east/west with a lot trees higher than the roof all around, winter with snow + our grid is 100% hydro and supposedly we pay the lowest tariffs in NA.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 8:34 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
I don’t think we’ll ever install solar panels on our house, roof slope is east/west with a lot trees higher than the roof all around, winter with snow + our grid is 100% hydro and supposedly we pay the lowest tariffs in NA.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 8:34 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
I really want solar. Where I live (Québec), winter weather can disrupt the grid for extended periods at a moment's notice.
Here's the rub: Quebec has the cheapest hydro electricity in North America. I pay 6 cents per kilowatt hour, CAD, with no peak rates. It's a flat charge.
This, combined with the fact that Quebec's energy utility refuses to buy back power from individual generators (they don't need it), means it's financially non-viable for me to make the investment. It will likely take a huge amount of time to pay for myself, and without cost effective battery storage solutions it doesn't help me deal with the grid going down. So I am stuck in generator land.
posted by jordantwodelta at 8:50 AM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Here's the rub: Quebec has the cheapest hydro electricity in North America. I pay 6 cents per kilowatt hour, CAD, with no peak rates. It's a flat charge.
This, combined with the fact that Quebec's energy utility refuses to buy back power from individual generators (they don't need it), means it's financially non-viable for me to make the investment. It will likely take a huge amount of time to pay for myself, and without cost effective battery storage solutions it doesn't help me deal with the grid going down. So I am stuck in generator land.
posted by jordantwodelta at 8:50 AM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Availability of solar panels is a question; solar abundance is only available to people who can afford to own a home and the extra $20,000 to install solar on the roof.
I think this is a big issue though, at least in my area. We are fortunate enough to own our own place, but we live in a townhome with extremely limited roof space - a SFH starts at well over a million here. It's the same way with EVs - there's a lot more on the roads here (almost all Teslas), but they are all driven by rich people who can afford a place with a garage. Pretty hard to install a charger when you only have assigned spaces in a parking lot.
Not sure where I'm going with that, just something I've noticed a lot recently that bugs me a bit.
posted by photo guy at 8:55 AM on July 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
I think this is a big issue though, at least in my area. We are fortunate enough to own our own place, but we live in a townhome with extremely limited roof space - a SFH starts at well over a million here. It's the same way with EVs - there's a lot more on the roads here (almost all Teslas), but they are all driven by rich people who can afford a place with a garage. Pretty hard to install a charger when you only have assigned spaces in a parking lot.
Not sure where I'm going with that, just something I've noticed a lot recently that bugs me a bit.
posted by photo guy at 8:55 AM on July 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
battery storage hit a all-time high with 2.52 GW
Yes, this is great! But it's small; at that peak moment we were producing about 35GW of power total, batteries were 7% of total. And while peak output of all batteries on the grid is about the same as our single nuclear power plant, we only have enough battery storage to sustain that output for about 3 hours. You can see details of our energy supply mix on the CAISO site.
To compare to the 2.5GW from batteries, in 2017 California had 4.5GW of pumped hydro storage, much of it decades old. But watts are just momentary output; the best thing about hydro is how much it can store. We have 4500 GWh of pumped hydro storage capacity, compared to about 10GWh for batteries (my guess).
The problem with pumped hydro is installing more is getting hard: it involves dams and flooded canyons and years or decades of complaints and lawsuits. The tradeoff of environmental damage from a new dam vs environmental damage from global warming. Battery capacity is growing rapidly. But batteries are expensive, short lived, and have environmental impacts we're mostly ignoring at the moment. And batteries are only going to ever store power for a few days, not a few months like a reservoir can.
Truthfully we need both kinds of storage, and others. We need more clean generation of electricity and we need a place to store it.
posted by Nelson at 9:06 AM on July 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
Yes, this is great! But it's small; at that peak moment we were producing about 35GW of power total, batteries were 7% of total. And while peak output of all batteries on the grid is about the same as our single nuclear power plant, we only have enough battery storage to sustain that output for about 3 hours. You can see details of our energy supply mix on the CAISO site.
To compare to the 2.5GW from batteries, in 2017 California had 4.5GW of pumped hydro storage, much of it decades old. But watts are just momentary output; the best thing about hydro is how much it can store. We have 4500 GWh of pumped hydro storage capacity, compared to about 10GWh for batteries (my guess).
The problem with pumped hydro is installing more is getting hard: it involves dams and flooded canyons and years or decades of complaints and lawsuits. The tradeoff of environmental damage from a new dam vs environmental damage from global warming. Battery capacity is growing rapidly. But batteries are expensive, short lived, and have environmental impacts we're mostly ignoring at the moment. And batteries are only going to ever store power for a few days, not a few months like a reservoir can.
Truthfully we need both kinds of storage, and others. We need more clean generation of electricity and we need a place to store it.
posted by Nelson at 9:06 AM on July 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
Truthfully we need both kinds of storage, and others. We need more clean generation of electricity and we need a place to store it.
The breakthrough for storage is probably going to be practical sodium-ion batteries. If we get those we have basically unlimited amounts of material to create batteries where volumetric and gravimetric density are second in concern to cost.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:53 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
The breakthrough for storage is probably going to be practical sodium-ion batteries. If we get those we have basically unlimited amounts of material to create batteries where volumetric and gravimetric density are second in concern to cost.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:53 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Practical sodium-ion batteries are commercially available now.
Ambri's liquid metal batteries, made from calcium, antimony and calcium chloride in a stainless steel housing, are also a very interesting technology. Anode, electrolyte and cathode are all liquid at operating temperature, so there's no lithium-ion-like degradation from dendrite formation. Round trip efficiency is not quite as good as lithium-ion, but at 80% is better than pumped hydro's and plenty good enough for economical peak levelling. They also don't need cooling, don't need clever battery management electronics, and don't have any failure modes that involve catching fire.
posted by flabdablet at 10:16 AM on July 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
Ambri's liquid metal batteries, made from calcium, antimony and calcium chloride in a stainless steel housing, are also a very interesting technology. Anode, electrolyte and cathode are all liquid at operating temperature, so there's no lithium-ion-like degradation from dendrite formation. Round trip efficiency is not quite as good as lithium-ion, but at 80% is better than pumped hydro's and plenty good enough for economical peak levelling. They also don't need cooling, don't need clever battery management electronics, and don't have any failure modes that involve catching fire.
posted by flabdablet at 10:16 AM on July 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
but decommissioning existing ones in places where no other solution is currently in place purely for “environmental” reasons is just supremely dumb.
Fukushima.
posted by AlSweigart at 10:22 AM on July 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
Fukushima.
posted by AlSweigart at 10:22 AM on July 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
Pretty hard to install a charger when you only have assigned spaces in a parking lot.
Not hard at all; see practically every RV park in America. Put electronic payment controls on the pedestals and you don't even need assigned spaces. Similiar schemes can be put in place for street parking though obviously with a huge political cost.
Quaise says it's going to use hijacked fusion technology to drill the deepest holes in history, unlocking clean, virtually limitless, supercritical geothermal energy that can re-power fossil-fueled power plants all over the world."
Reminds me of when some railroad (Penn Central maybe) electrified parts of their line in the steam era. They initially didn't buy any electric locomotives instead just installed elements in fire boxes of their coal fleet.
posted by Mitheral at 10:29 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Not hard at all; see practically every RV park in America. Put electronic payment controls on the pedestals and you don't even need assigned spaces. Similiar schemes can be put in place for street parking though obviously with a huge political cost.
Quaise says it's going to use hijacked fusion technology to drill the deepest holes in history, unlocking clean, virtually limitless, supercritical geothermal energy that can re-power fossil-fueled power plants all over the world."
Reminds me of when some railroad (Penn Central maybe) electrified parts of their line in the steam era. They initially didn't buy any electric locomotives instead just installed elements in fire boxes of their coal fleet.
posted by Mitheral at 10:29 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
We, as a species, should start trying to nick all of the mineral resources on the asteroids that keep flying by the planet.
posted by NoThisIsPatrick at 10:31 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by NoThisIsPatrick at 10:31 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
I can totally recognize the feeling in the top article. For me it's mostly the luxury of having a real bathtub and all the warm water, because Denmark was particularly hard hit by the 1970s energy crisis and both tubs and warm water abundance have been rare ever since.
But in the end, I feel we need community based systems, so there is a functioning grid that can supply alternative sustainable energy when you own source is not providing, and of course so renters have a sustainable option. I get wind power when the sun isn't shining, and days (or nights) with neither wind nor sun are close to non existent here. I know it's different in other parts of the world. But with an efficient grid, places with near constant sun could trade energy with places with near constant wind.
The island of Samsø is Denmarks experimental site for CO2 neutrality. Couldn't find a better site in English, but since 2007, they have raised the bar, and now they are also aiming for CO2 neutral agriculture and more biodiversity, which weren't part of the original plan. It's a small community, but they are developing solutions that work.
The point about shipping and fuel is mindblowing! But of course. Why didn't I think about that? I can't wait to discuss it with my colleagues and students when we get back to work, because I'm sure there is something about it that also applies to building materials.
All of that said, this is going to be immensely disruptive. When it gets going, and eventually it will, millions of jobs will be lost and it will take time and a lot of desperation to transfer skills and money to the new sectors. Only intense government involvement can mitigate that, and I can see a lot of governments who are not ready to handle it.
posted by mumimor at 10:52 AM on July 31, 2022 [9 favorites]
But in the end, I feel we need community based systems, so there is a functioning grid that can supply alternative sustainable energy when you own source is not providing, and of course so renters have a sustainable option. I get wind power when the sun isn't shining, and days (or nights) with neither wind nor sun are close to non existent here. I know it's different in other parts of the world. But with an efficient grid, places with near constant sun could trade energy with places with near constant wind.
The island of Samsø is Denmarks experimental site for CO2 neutrality. Couldn't find a better site in English, but since 2007, they have raised the bar, and now they are also aiming for CO2 neutral agriculture and more biodiversity, which weren't part of the original plan. It's a small community, but they are developing solutions that work.
The point about shipping and fuel is mindblowing! But of course. Why didn't I think about that? I can't wait to discuss it with my colleagues and students when we get back to work, because I'm sure there is something about it that also applies to building materials.
All of that said, this is going to be immensely disruptive. When it gets going, and eventually it will, millions of jobs will be lost and it will take time and a lot of desperation to transfer skills and money to the new sectors. Only intense government involvement can mitigate that, and I can see a lot of governments who are not ready to handle it.
posted by mumimor at 10:52 AM on July 31, 2022 [9 favorites]
I am fascinated and genuinely encouraged by so much of the great content of the FPP, but the idea that we won’t fight over solar seems beyond aspirational.
posted by armoir from antproof case at 10:52 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by armoir from antproof case at 10:52 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Thanks so much for making this post, kliuless. I've been thinking a lot about the possibility that energy could have a real "too cheap to meter" moment with solar. Battery chemistry (and lack of sane public policy) has been is holding us back, but it seems like there's a huge amount of money pouring into it, and it can be solved incrementally.
Quaise says it's going to use hijacked fusion technology to drill the deepest holes in history, unlocking clean, virtually limitless, supercritical geothermal energy that can re-power fossil-fueled power plants all over the world."
I've been following this as well. It remains to be seen whether they can pull this off, but it would be an incredible irony if all the world's energy problems ended up being solved by a fusion research byproduct. It'd be like if NASA failed to make Saturn V carry a sufficient payload for a moon landing, but then we found out that Tang can teleport people to the moon.
posted by condour75 at 11:00 AM on July 31, 2022 [16 favorites]
Quaise says it's going to use hijacked fusion technology to drill the deepest holes in history, unlocking clean, virtually limitless, supercritical geothermal energy that can re-power fossil-fueled power plants all over the world."
I've been following this as well. It remains to be seen whether they can pull this off, but it would be an incredible irony if all the world's energy problems ended up being solved by a fusion research byproduct. It'd be like if NASA failed to make Saturn V carry a sufficient payload for a moon landing, but then we found out that Tang can teleport people to the moon.
posted by condour75 at 11:00 AM on July 31, 2022 [16 favorites]
it seems like mandating solar isn’t that far a stretch, politically, from mandating low-flow toilets or no-lawn-watering days.
This sort of policy had been on the agenda in some European countries for over a decade. Often less specific in terms of which technology is deployed, a city can just obligate builders through the building regs to have zero or low carbon tech, or can specify a fraction of estimated demand for a new build that has to come from renewables, in theory that should allow developers to find the lowest cost option. So PV can be an option, but also CHP, district heating etc.
There are routes to applying this to existing buildings also, for example, no replacement gas boilers, though this can be more complicated in practice.
posted by biffa at 11:02 AM on July 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
This sort of policy had been on the agenda in some European countries for over a decade. Often less specific in terms of which technology is deployed, a city can just obligate builders through the building regs to have zero or low carbon tech, or can specify a fraction of estimated demand for a new build that has to come from renewables, in theory that should allow developers to find the lowest cost option. So PV can be an option, but also CHP, district heating etc.
There are routes to applying this to existing buildings also, for example, no replacement gas boilers, though this can be more complicated in practice.
posted by biffa at 11:02 AM on July 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
To decarbonize the only real practical solution is small nuclear.
Sure, let's rely on a technology that isn't working yet. It's not like we're on the clock or anything.
posted by biffa at 11:09 AM on July 31, 2022 [8 favorites]
Sure, let's rely on a technology that isn't working yet. It's not like we're on the clock or anything.
posted by biffa at 11:09 AM on July 31, 2022 [8 favorites]
I’d take my chances with possible accidents vs the certainty of accelerating climate change by replacing all current nuclear power with coal.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 11:12 AM on July 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by WaterAndPixels at 11:12 AM on July 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
Pretty hard to install a charger when you only have assigned spaces in a parking lot.
Back in Edmonton, many parking spaces already come with an electrical outlet -- to power the block heater that keeps your engine from freezing. So, in fact, it's actually pretty simple to install chargers, it's just that your landlords don't want to and will need to be forced to do so.
Which, fortunately, is something amenable to local regulations!
posted by aramaic at 11:12 AM on July 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
Back in Edmonton, many parking spaces already come with an electrical outlet -- to power the block heater that keeps your engine from freezing. So, in fact, it's actually pretty simple to install chargers, it's just that your landlords don't want to and will need to be forced to do so.
Which, fortunately, is something amenable to local regulations!
posted by aramaic at 11:12 AM on July 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
BWA "Also from Wired, two years ago: Solar Panels Are Starting to Die, Leaving Behind Toxic Trash."
From inside that very article:
"According to Vanderhoof, Recycle PV Solar initially used a “heat process and a ball mill process” that could recapture more than 90 percent of the materials present in a panel, including low-purity silver and silicon. But the company recently received some new equipment from its European partners that can do “95 plus percent recapture,” he said, while separating the recaptured materials much better.
Some PV researchers want to do even better than that. In another recent review paper, a team led by National Renewable Energy Laboratory scientists calls for the development of new recycling processes in which all metals and minerals are recovered at high purity, with the goal of making recycling as economically viable and as environmentally beneficial as possible."
posted by Hairy Lobster at 11:26 AM on July 31, 2022 [15 favorites]
From inside that very article:
"According to Vanderhoof, Recycle PV Solar initially used a “heat process and a ball mill process” that could recapture more than 90 percent of the materials present in a panel, including low-purity silver and silicon. But the company recently received some new equipment from its European partners that can do “95 plus percent recapture,” he said, while separating the recaptured materials much better.
Some PV researchers want to do even better than that. In another recent review paper, a team led by National Renewable Energy Laboratory scientists calls for the development of new recycling processes in which all metals and minerals are recovered at high purity, with the goal of making recycling as economically viable and as environmentally beneficial as possible."
posted by Hairy Lobster at 11:26 AM on July 31, 2022 [15 favorites]
Pretty sure the next geo-political wars will be over potable water.
posted by dbmcd at 11:30 AM on July 31, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by dbmcd at 11:30 AM on July 31, 2022 [15 favorites]
it seems like mandating solar isn’t that far a stretch, politically, from mandating low-flow toilets or no-lawn-watering days.
Mandating roofs with enough weight capacity and pre installed wiring seems like a good idea. But do we have enough production capacity to mandate installation of the panels? It could backfire spectacularly if scarcity makes the cost of panels explode.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 11:41 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Mandating roofs with enough weight capacity and pre installed wiring seems like a good idea. But do we have enough production capacity to mandate installation of the panels? It could backfire spectacularly if scarcity makes the cost of panels explode.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 11:41 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Pretty sure the next geo-political wars will be over potable water.
Yes, and they have been simmering for a while now, even within the US.
posted by mumimor at 11:48 AM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Yes, and they have been simmering for a while now, even within the US.
posted by mumimor at 11:48 AM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Yes, and they have been simmering for a while now, even within the US.
This caught my eye recently: If California comes for Midwest water, we have plenty of dynamite in Minnesota.
posted by ryanshepard at 11:54 AM on July 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
This caught my eye recently: If California comes for Midwest water, we have plenty of dynamite in Minnesota.
posted by ryanshepard at 11:54 AM on July 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
Batteries aren't cost efficient yet, but I'm about to cut over from gas water heating to a hot water cylinder, and that will store more energy. I
Strongly recommend that you limit your energy storage purchases to 1. hot water storage, 2. refrigeration (connect your inverter and your freezer to maximize use of solar energy for your refrigeration needs.) and 3. your Leaf.
Battery storage really should only use battery banks that are on wheels and can be pushed away from your house if need be. You already have such a battery bank right now.
posted by ocschwar at 11:57 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Strongly recommend that you limit your energy storage purchases to 1. hot water storage, 2. refrigeration (connect your inverter and your freezer to maximize use of solar energy for your refrigeration needs.) and 3. your Leaf.
Battery storage really should only use battery banks that are on wheels and can be pushed away from your house if need be. You already have such a battery bank right now.
posted by ocschwar at 11:57 AM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
drill the deepest holes in history, unlocking clean, virtually limitless,
I... I feel like we've... we've been here before....
posted by aniola at 12:01 PM on July 31, 2022 [7 favorites]
I... I feel like we've... we've been here before....
posted by aniola at 12:01 PM on July 31, 2022 [7 favorites]
Someone said something up thread about having power when the grid goes down... my grid-connected system cuts out if there is a power cut. This is for the safety of line workers. Imagine coming to fix a fault on a street and unbeknownst to you my house is putting out 3 kW and zaps you.
(Presumably a more sophisticated setup could have switches and relays that sever you from the grid until it's up again, but power cuts are pretty rare in my part of the world, like every few years rare, so probably it's not worth it).
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 12:24 PM on July 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
(Presumably a more sophisticated setup could have switches and relays that sever you from the grid until it's up again, but power cuts are pretty rare in my part of the world, like every few years rare, so probably it's not worth it).
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 12:24 PM on July 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
The term is "Microgrid", and you have to look up the specs for its islanding capabilities and what it takes to get approved to connect with one. Otherwise you just accept the risk that you go down with the grid and wait for the line workers to fix it.
posted by ocschwar at 12:38 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by ocschwar at 12:38 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
The situation for fusion is comically bad,
This is oddly true and false at the same time. Tritium has a half life of 12 years, so it makes no sense at all to build up a surplus, it will evaporate well before it can be used. But it can be made, in certain fusion reactors and in the not quite there fusion reactors themselves. It's in seawater and on the moon, neither is terribly cheap but if there is demand sufficient tritium will likely become available. I browsed fusion forums and there was some suggestion that the tritium article(s) was FUD from the pro-fusion lobby.
posted by sammyo at 12:52 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
This is oddly true and false at the same time. Tritium has a half life of 12 years, so it makes no sense at all to build up a surplus, it will evaporate well before it can be used. But it can be made, in certain fusion reactors and in the not quite there fusion reactors themselves. It's in seawater and on the moon, neither is terribly cheap but if there is demand sufficient tritium will likely become available. I browsed fusion forums and there was some suggestion that the tritium article(s) was FUD from the pro-fusion lobby.
posted by sammyo at 12:52 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
the idea that we won’t fight over solar seems beyond aspirational.
And historically unprecedented, given how many wars have been fought over "merely" biological solar energy, viz. forests and farmland.
Strictly better than fighting over fossil fuels and also having the CO2 emissions, of course.
posted by clew at 1:19 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
And historically unprecedented, given how many wars have been fought over "merely" biological solar energy, viz. forests and farmland.
Strictly better than fighting over fossil fuels and also having the CO2 emissions, of course.
posted by clew at 1:19 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Strictly, yes. Good points. Invading and bombing countries full of brown people so we can secure access to their or their neighbor’s oil, sure does burn a lot of oil that is perfectly fit for other more peaceful purposes.
What i was getting at with the comment and the linked article is: unless an alternative to copper is found within a decade at latest, the ‘battle for solar’ would be mooted by the fighting (economically or militarily) that will have to occur for the thing that’s driving and absolutely required for what billions of people are counting on for either progress or survival : the electrification of Everything. Solar will likely be asked to find a place in line along many other sources of copper demand. And either we’re going to need to use some of the by-then-dwindling copper supplies to find & get more new copper out of the ground, or we’re going to get copper the old-fashioned filthy water-polluting atmosphere-eating ways.
Or find an alternative apex conductor of electrical energy.
I still frikkin love this FPP though. Thanks, kluiless
posted by armoir from antproof case at 2:06 PM on July 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
What i was getting at with the comment and the linked article is: unless an alternative to copper is found within a decade at latest, the ‘battle for solar’ would be mooted by the fighting (economically or militarily) that will have to occur for the thing that’s driving and absolutely required for what billions of people are counting on for either progress or survival : the electrification of Everything. Solar will likely be asked to find a place in line along many other sources of copper demand. And either we’re going to need to use some of the by-then-dwindling copper supplies to find & get more new copper out of the ground, or we’re going to get copper the old-fashioned filthy water-polluting atmosphere-eating ways.
Or find an alternative apex conductor of electrical energy.
I still frikkin love this FPP though. Thanks, kluiless
posted by armoir from antproof case at 2:06 PM on July 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
But solar is never going to be the sole source of energy. And I wonder wether there is actually a huge recycling ressource out there. Right now, copper is valuable, but not valuable enough that you get real money for your old pots or cables. That could change for the good of everyone. The huge difference between your fossil fuel energy source and your renewable is that you don't have to replace it every six months. So even if the price of copper and thus solar cells and batteries goes up, they still last at least 20 years.
As anecdata, I just walked past a big pile of vintage copper cauldrons that you could buy for less than a € pr kilo, and there must be tons of those out there.
posted by mumimor at 2:15 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
As anecdata, I just walked past a big pile of vintage copper cauldrons that you could buy for less than a € pr kilo, and there must be tons of those out there.
posted by mumimor at 2:15 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
I don't know how much copper is in a watt of solar panel but it is likely all the interconnects can be or currently are in aluminum.
posted by Mitheral at 2:25 PM on July 31, 2022
posted by Mitheral at 2:25 PM on July 31, 2022
Really? Because I see people stripping, (and leaving giant piles of plastic casing lying about), copper wire every couple of months.
posted by Windopaene at 2:30 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Windopaene at 2:30 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Yes, where I am has trouble both with the stripped casings left around as trash and with copper infrastructure being stolen while it’s actually in use.
posted by clew at 2:39 PM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by clew at 2:39 PM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
>Battery storage really should only use battery banks that are on wheels
yup, when picking my 9kW system earlier this year I kinda wanted to wait for IQ-8 with its "Sunlight Backup" ability, but the marginal cost over IQ-7s just didn't pencil out, especially since the only times PG&E has dropped out recently is after the sun goes down. (IQ-8 would be nice if an earthquake or hackers took out the grid for multiple days, but I decided to spend the thousands on bug-out camping gear instead – said gear includes a Cybertruck to go along with my current Leaf LOL).
I recently got a ~1kW 12V DC -> 120V AC inverter for my 40kWh Leaf so if the power goes out again I can at least keep a freezer full of food unspoiled (as a quality-of-life thing I sprung for a 2nd dedicated freezer so my kitchen freezer section only holds opened items . . .so nice!)
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 2:52 PM on July 31, 2022
yup, when picking my 9kW system earlier this year I kinda wanted to wait for IQ-8 with its "Sunlight Backup" ability, but the marginal cost over IQ-7s just didn't pencil out, especially since the only times PG&E has dropped out recently is after the sun goes down. (IQ-8 would be nice if an earthquake or hackers took out the grid for multiple days, but I decided to spend the thousands on bug-out camping gear instead – said gear includes a Cybertruck to go along with my current Leaf LOL).
I recently got a ~1kW 12V DC -> 120V AC inverter for my 40kWh Leaf so if the power goes out again I can at least keep a freezer full of food unspoiled (as a quality-of-life thing I sprung for a 2nd dedicated freezer so my kitchen freezer section only holds opened items . . .so nice!)
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 2:52 PM on July 31, 2022
Battery storage really should only use battery banks that are on wheels
I don’t get it. Could anyone expand on this?
posted by chrchr at 3:11 PM on July 31, 2022
I don’t get it. Could anyone expand on this?
posted by chrchr at 3:11 PM on July 31, 2022
If it catches on fire, you can wheel it away from your house.
posted by kaibutsu at 3:16 PM on July 31, 2022
posted by kaibutsu at 3:16 PM on July 31, 2022
I don’t get it. Could anyone expand on this?
EV since it’s basically a big battery on wheels.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 3:20 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
EV since it’s basically a big battery on wheels.
posted by WaterAndPixels at 3:20 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
LiFePO4 is a lot safer than Lithium Ion; I passed on fixed battery storage since I'll get a helluva lot more use out of the investment using the batteries to get around town for 10+ years.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 3:21 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 3:21 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
This caught my eye recently: If California comes for Midwest water, we have plenty of dynamite in Minnesota.
Funny letter. People don't seem to realize that the Great Lakes are a shared international water resource that is governed by treaties restricting it's use to local communities. Much of Minnesota, and all other great lakes neighboring states, aren't allowed to use Great Lakes water never mind California. This became an issue when the Republicans tried to give Foxconn access to the water.
posted by srboisvert at 3:22 PM on July 31, 2022 [13 favorites]
Funny letter. People don't seem to realize that the Great Lakes are a shared international water resource that is governed by treaties restricting it's use to local communities. Much of Minnesota, and all other great lakes neighboring states, aren't allowed to use Great Lakes water never mind California. This became an issue when the Republicans tried to give Foxconn access to the water.
posted by srboisvert at 3:22 PM on July 31, 2022 [13 favorites]
"Nobody will fight wars over solar" seems like an awfully naive take, even in the (possibly likely!) scenario where we figure out how to manufacture efficient solar panels without exotic materials.
Even in the absolute best-case scenario, sunny (and empty) land would suddenly become a huge and valuable asset (particularly sunny land within reasonable transmission distance of dark, cloudy Europe).
It's not difficult to see how conflicts might arise.
posted by schmod at 3:43 PM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Even in the absolute best-case scenario, sunny (and empty) land would suddenly become a huge and valuable asset (particularly sunny land within reasonable transmission distance of dark, cloudy Europe).
It's not difficult to see how conflicts might arise.
posted by schmod at 3:43 PM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
RE: the FPP itself, I live in an area with good insolation and high cooling costs ($350/mo w/ PG&E's ~34c/kWh costs) in the summer so putting 9kW of solar on my roof this year was a no-brainer.
When all is said and done I'm paying $250/mo on the loan for 10 years instead of ~$250/mo (current rates, who knows what they'll be later this decade!) to PG&E for just under 40kWh/day of power production on average.
Thanks to net metering I can build up credits during the day and spring/fall for use overnight and in the winter.
Currently overproducing by about 5MWh/year, that's about 1 free 200kWh charge-up on my future electric truck every two weeks I guess, about a $2000/yr value. After my loan is paid off and until the current net metering arrangement is sunsetted (2037 or 2042, we'll know more later this year) I'll be collecting this 40kWh/day of energy for a very nominal monthly cost to PG&E. #blessed
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 4:03 PM on July 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
When all is said and done I'm paying $250/mo on the loan for 10 years instead of ~$250/mo (current rates, who knows what they'll be later this decade!) to PG&E for just under 40kWh/day of power production on average.
Thanks to net metering I can build up credits during the day and spring/fall for use overnight and in the winter.
Currently overproducing by about 5MWh/year, that's about 1 free 200kWh charge-up on my future electric truck every two weeks I guess, about a $2000/yr value. After my loan is paid off and until the current net metering arrangement is sunsetted (2037 or 2042, we'll know more later this year) I'll be collecting this 40kWh/day of energy for a very nominal monthly cost to PG&E. #blessed
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 4:03 PM on July 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
I wouldn't bet on many wars being fought over the minerals needed for solar power or batteries. They exist all over the earth, including in many places where it's not currently economical to extract them. If the price goes up, suddenly many of those deposits become more economical.
For example: There are huge copper deposits in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. I toured a defunct copper mine with my mom when she used to live there. The mine had closed when copper mining elsewhere in the world drove down the international price of copper such that this mine could no longer turn a profit. But there are plenty of places like that, where the minerals are ready and waiting when the price is right.
Also keep in mind that the chemistries we use now for solar panels, batteries, etc. are not necessarily always going to be the ones we use. There are tons of different battery chemistries being tested and developed. The makeup of solar cells is also constantly being improved upon for greater efficiency.
Finally, these minerals are, to a significant degree, recyclable when the components they're used in reach the ends of their lifespans. They're not like fossil fuels in that way. The more minerals in circulation globally, the more ultimately end up in the waste stream, available for reuse.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 4:55 PM on July 31, 2022 [9 favorites]
For example: There are huge copper deposits in the Upper Peninsula of Michigan. I toured a defunct copper mine with my mom when she used to live there. The mine had closed when copper mining elsewhere in the world drove down the international price of copper such that this mine could no longer turn a profit. But there are plenty of places like that, where the minerals are ready and waiting when the price is right.
Also keep in mind that the chemistries we use now for solar panels, batteries, etc. are not necessarily always going to be the ones we use. There are tons of different battery chemistries being tested and developed. The makeup of solar cells is also constantly being improved upon for greater efficiency.
Finally, these minerals are, to a significant degree, recyclable when the components they're used in reach the ends of their lifespans. They're not like fossil fuels in that way. The more minerals in circulation globally, the more ultimately end up in the waste stream, available for reuse.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 4:55 PM on July 31, 2022 [9 favorites]
Oh, also wanted to say: Thanks, kliuless, for a well-focused post, rather than a ginormous multi-page link dump.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 4:57 PM on July 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 4:57 PM on July 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
Battery storage really should only use battery banks that are on wheels
I don’t get it. Could anyone expand on this?
posted by chrchr at 3:11 PM on July 31 [+] [!]
If it catches on fire, you can wheel it away from your house.
Exactly. My feeling is that battery storage belongs in your local transformer substation and not in anyone's house for the following reasons:
1. When a substation is putting on a light and sound show, your house is already a safe distance away. And people in general know to keep their distance.
2. If a battery storage facility is serving a whole neighborhood, it needs way less capacity per household, because most people's power demand is de-synchronized from their neighbors. You just started your dishwasher, but your neighbor's dryer just finished.
3. Space at a utility substation is more readily available. Utilities can afford to be less space efficient, which means they can use battery tech that is more efficient in other directions: safer, better round-trip efficiency, better environmental/political/labor-economic impacts for the minerals in question.
posted by ocschwar at 5:06 PM on July 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
I don’t get it. Could anyone expand on this?
posted by chrchr at 3:11 PM on July 31 [+] [!]
If it catches on fire, you can wheel it away from your house.
Exactly. My feeling is that battery storage belongs in your local transformer substation and not in anyone's house for the following reasons:
1. When a substation is putting on a light and sound show, your house is already a safe distance away. And people in general know to keep their distance.
2. If a battery storage facility is serving a whole neighborhood, it needs way less capacity per household, because most people's power demand is de-synchronized from their neighbors. You just started your dishwasher, but your neighbor's dryer just finished.
3. Space at a utility substation is more readily available. Utilities can afford to be less space efficient, which means they can use battery tech that is more efficient in other directions: safer, better round-trip efficiency, better environmental/political/labor-economic impacts for the minerals in question.
posted by ocschwar at 5:06 PM on July 31, 2022 [6 favorites]
When I mentioned battery storage earlier, it was to be situated on a rural property, with no neighbors, away from the primary building. Fire is not a concern in this instance. Generators are also a fire risk, and it's wise to take similar precautions.
posted by jordantwodelta at 5:21 PM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by jordantwodelta at 5:21 PM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Clean Energy Group's interactive U.S. Resilient Solar+Storage Projects Map (167 projects)
From its curated list of these installations (affordable housing initiatives, emergency shelters, critical services, and community microgrids):
The Chemehuevi Valley Reservation is located at the edge of the Mohave Desert. Triple-digit temperatures are common between April and September, which can cause electricity bills to spike as residents use air conditioners to stay cool. In addition to high electricity costs, residents also experience frequent power outages due to high winds and seasonal flooding. These blackouts are exacerbated by the remote rural location of the reservation, which is connected to the main grid by a single transmission line.
During power outages, residents often take shelter at the Chemehuevi Community Center. With the installation of a solar+storage microgrid in the fall of 2017, the community center is no longer reliant a diesel generator for critical power when outages do occur. Now, a 90-kilowatt solar carport system combined with a 25-kilowatt/125-kilowatt-hour flow battery supplies 85% of the community center’s energy usage and reduces the tribe’s monthly energy costs.
Solar carports with EV charging stations
posted by Iris Gambol at 6:06 PM on July 31, 2022 [8 favorites]
From its curated list of these installations (affordable housing initiatives, emergency shelters, critical services, and community microgrids):
The Chemehuevi Valley Reservation is located at the edge of the Mohave Desert. Triple-digit temperatures are common between April and September, which can cause electricity bills to spike as residents use air conditioners to stay cool. In addition to high electricity costs, residents also experience frequent power outages due to high winds and seasonal flooding. These blackouts are exacerbated by the remote rural location of the reservation, which is connected to the main grid by a single transmission line.
During power outages, residents often take shelter at the Chemehuevi Community Center. With the installation of a solar+storage microgrid in the fall of 2017, the community center is no longer reliant a diesel generator for critical power when outages do occur. Now, a 90-kilowatt solar carport system combined with a 25-kilowatt/125-kilowatt-hour flow battery supplies 85% of the community center’s energy usage and reduces the tribe’s monthly energy costs.
Solar carports with EV charging stations
posted by Iris Gambol at 6:06 PM on July 31, 2022 [8 favorites]
I’ve idly thought of running a power strip out to the sidewalk with a sign saying “FREE ELECTRICITY,” just to be the Johnny Appleseed of solar.
I’d love to do this!! My current house’s porch has an outlet that has definitely had houseless neighbor’s phones plugged in.
posted by bendy at 7:34 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
I’d love to do this!! My current house’s porch has an outlet that has definitely had houseless neighbor’s phones plugged in.
posted by bendy at 7:34 PM on July 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Batteries are like babies - they require a surprising amount of TLC. I used to have to take care of two 12v marine batteries being stored at home for a sporadically used rural RV. They needed to be stored inside, but taken outside for regular topping up of charge and distilled water. I realize battery technology is evolving, but don't underestimate the amount of time/risk involved in battery management.
posted by fairmettle at 9:33 PM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by fairmettle at 9:33 PM on July 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Our neighborhood covenants (written around 2006) forbid solar panels. And getting them amended is, apparently, slightly less possible than achieving faster-than-light travel. I have a large, unobstructed expanse of roof facing south that is begging to have panels put in place.
This is where the feds can easily help. There is already precedent in FCC rules that forbid landlords and HOAs from enforcing rules forbidding the installation of antennas on your property. I suspect FERC or some other arm of the DOE already has the authority to enact a similar rule for solar panels. If not, Congress could pass a law. Even if it came to that, it would be relatively easy compared to many other recent fights in Congress. The right wing prepper set is all about self sufficiency, not that consistency is a common trait on the right at the moment. Still, it's less politically fraught than incentive programs, regulation on carbon emissions, or anything like that since it's just allowing people to do what they want with their own property.
Fukushima
In the context of choosing not to decommission existing plants until we have sufficient renewables and storage to guarantee we won't need to burn shit for electricity and/or heat, this is a terrible argument. Even leaving aside the carbon emissions, burning fossil fuels is far worse for human health than the radiation released in that particular disaster. Coal fired power stations are especially terrible in that they release more radioactive particulate emissions that can be breathed in by humans in their lifetime than all the radiation released by all the commercial nuclear reactors ever have, including that released by Fukushima and Chernobyl and TMI. And that doesn't even get into the heavy metal contamination, the occasional fly ash pond disasters, etc.
There are good economic reasons not to support new large scale nuclear plants (at least when they are used primarily to generate electricity), especially the kind of building spree that would be necessary to replace fossil fuel usage. There are no good reasons to insist that (most, there are exceptions) existing nuclear plants be shut down at the present time.
posted by wierdo at 10:16 PM on July 31, 2022 [8 favorites]
This is where the feds can easily help. There is already precedent in FCC rules that forbid landlords and HOAs from enforcing rules forbidding the installation of antennas on your property. I suspect FERC or some other arm of the DOE already has the authority to enact a similar rule for solar panels. If not, Congress could pass a law. Even if it came to that, it would be relatively easy compared to many other recent fights in Congress. The right wing prepper set is all about self sufficiency, not that consistency is a common trait on the right at the moment. Still, it's less politically fraught than incentive programs, regulation on carbon emissions, or anything like that since it's just allowing people to do what they want with their own property.
Fukushima
In the context of choosing not to decommission existing plants until we have sufficient renewables and storage to guarantee we won't need to burn shit for electricity and/or heat, this is a terrible argument. Even leaving aside the carbon emissions, burning fossil fuels is far worse for human health than the radiation released in that particular disaster. Coal fired power stations are especially terrible in that they release more radioactive particulate emissions that can be breathed in by humans in their lifetime than all the radiation released by all the commercial nuclear reactors ever have, including that released by Fukushima and Chernobyl and TMI. And that doesn't even get into the heavy metal contamination, the occasional fly ash pond disasters, etc.
There are good economic reasons not to support new large scale nuclear plants (at least when they are used primarily to generate electricity), especially the kind of building spree that would be necessary to replace fossil fuel usage. There are no good reasons to insist that (most, there are exceptions) existing nuclear plants be shut down at the present time.
posted by wierdo at 10:16 PM on July 31, 2022 [8 favorites]
Turns out, Florida already has a law on the subject, which is amusing given all the recent 'fuck the libs" anti-solar posturing.
posted by wierdo at 12:39 AM on August 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by wierdo at 12:39 AM on August 1, 2022 [4 favorites]
~Pretty sure the next geo-political wars will be over potable water.
~Yes, and they have been simmering for a while now, even within the US.
I see what you did there ;)
posted by Thorzdad at 4:56 AM on August 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
~Yes, and they have been simmering for a while now, even within the US.
I see what you did there ;)
posted by Thorzdad at 4:56 AM on August 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
Russian troops plain stole Ukraine's largest solar plant.
posted by Harald74 at 5:06 AM on August 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 5:06 AM on August 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
Batteries are like babies - they require a surprising amount of TLC. I used to have to take care of two 12v marine batteries being stored at home for a sporadically used rural RV. They needed to be stored inside, but taken outside for regular topping up of charge and distilled water. I realize battery technology is evolving, but don't underestimate the amount of time/risk involved in battery management.
I think this depends on the battery technology in use. Lead-acid batteries like I suppose yours to be are pretty notorious for being high-maintenance; in contrast, a lithium primary (non-rechargeable) battery can be no-fuss for ages (think of those sealed "replace once every ten years" smoke detectors).
That's not apples and oranges, but it goes to show that it's not the case that "a battery is a battery" and that's it. Even within rechargeables, a LiFePO4 battery will need a whole lot less care and supervision than a lead-acid battery does. YMMV a lot depending on the chemistry and the application.
The reason lead-acid has been popular since the 19th century is because it's cheap, it's now a very well known technology, and (if you need it, like if you're starting a car or running a microwave and other electric appliances to make dinner in an RV) you can get a lot of current out of it. But a lot of applications don't need these things so much, or will choose workarounds with another technology to avoid the maintenance downsides.
posted by Chef Flamboyardee at 5:19 AM on August 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
I think this depends on the battery technology in use. Lead-acid batteries like I suppose yours to be are pretty notorious for being high-maintenance; in contrast, a lithium primary (non-rechargeable) battery can be no-fuss for ages (think of those sealed "replace once every ten years" smoke detectors).
That's not apples and oranges, but it goes to show that it's not the case that "a battery is a battery" and that's it. Even within rechargeables, a LiFePO4 battery will need a whole lot less care and supervision than a lead-acid battery does. YMMV a lot depending on the chemistry and the application.
The reason lead-acid has been popular since the 19th century is because it's cheap, it's now a very well known technology, and (if you need it, like if you're starting a car or running a microwave and other electric appliances to make dinner in an RV) you can get a lot of current out of it. But a lot of applications don't need these things so much, or will choose workarounds with another technology to avoid the maintenance downsides.
posted by Chef Flamboyardee at 5:19 AM on August 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
Relevant recent paper which shows that warming can be kept just below 2 degrees Celsius if all conditional and unconditional pledges [from COP26] are implemented in full and on time.
This sort of mirrors the good news / bad news that I see in my day job of energy systems modelling and renewable energy project development.
Good news: we now have the technology package and broad global alignment required to reduce our emissions to the point where we are no longer causing additional climate change and can do so without making changes to the ways in which people in wealthy countries live their lives. The latter might seem like it's not particularly relevant from a justice point of view, but from an implementation point of view it sure makes it easier.
Slightly less good news: "if all conditional and unconditional pledges are met"... that little if is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
Much worse news: We're on target for just below 2C which is really very bad. I think sometimes people look at 4C Hellscape Earth predictions, see that we're on track for 1.8C (and other studies have shown that if you look at enacted policy you get to 2.6C which is clearly worse than that) and think, "oh man, that's good news" and it is good news. But. 1.5C is bad, it wasn't *really* selected as part of any real scientific process. You'll often see people quoted as it being the threshold where things get really bad but that just isn't really justifiable. So at least, have climate scientists said to me privately. It was picked as the most ambitious target that any of the models would say *could* be done. Really we'd want to get back to below the 1+ degrees we've already warmed but that would be too demotivating.
posted by atrazine at 7:51 AM on August 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
This sort of mirrors the good news / bad news that I see in my day job of energy systems modelling and renewable energy project development.
Good news: we now have the technology package and broad global alignment required to reduce our emissions to the point where we are no longer causing additional climate change and can do so without making changes to the ways in which people in wealthy countries live their lives. The latter might seem like it's not particularly relevant from a justice point of view, but from an implementation point of view it sure makes it easier.
Slightly less good news: "if all conditional and unconditional pledges are met"... that little if is doing a lot of heavy lifting.
Much worse news: We're on target for just below 2C which is really very bad. I think sometimes people look at 4C Hellscape Earth predictions, see that we're on track for 1.8C (and other studies have shown that if you look at enacted policy you get to 2.6C which is clearly worse than that) and think, "oh man, that's good news" and it is good news. But. 1.5C is bad, it wasn't *really* selected as part of any real scientific process. You'll often see people quoted as it being the threshold where things get really bad but that just isn't really justifiable. So at least, have climate scientists said to me privately. It was picked as the most ambitious target that any of the models would say *could* be done. Really we'd want to get back to below the 1+ degrees we've already warmed but that would be too demotivating.
posted by atrazine at 7:51 AM on August 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
powering everything with nuclear would pretty quickly run out uranium supplies
Note that this is only true with the really asinine form of nuclear power that's dominant in the US and UK, which treats fissionable uranium like the ultimate fossil fuel, to be "burned" in reactors that produce nothing but waste.
Other countries have pursued nuclear energy more thoughtfully, with "full fuel cycle" programs. Both the French and the Soviets understood that a complete nuclear fuel cycle was the key to making nuclear energy practicable over the long haul. You use the small amount of natural fissionable uranium to turn naturally un-fissionable uranium (the bulk of what's available) into plutonium, then chemically separate the plutonium and send it back to the reactors. Plutonium reactors can be quite small, too. In the end you do end up with waste, but the real win is that there's much less mining required, and TBH that's where nuclear is actually dirty. Waste disposal is a NIMBY problem but fundamentally not that hard, while mining uranium without leaving lots of toxic tailings blowing in the wind is actually more expensive and harder.
Unfortunately, the US has generally kept anyone else from pursuing the full fuel cycle, because the same facilities that can be used to reprocess nuclear fuel rods can, in theory, be used to create nuclear weapons. (Which is sorta "duh", but it's not that different a problem to the fact that a fertilizer plant can make explosives, or a chemical plant can make nerve gas. That's just how industrial facilities work. The fact that we absolutely shit ourselves over nuclear proliferation, but not over other threats to our continued existence on this planet, and "concerns" about proliferation just happen to align with those of the oil companies and our oil-rich allies... hmmmm.)
Nuclear energy is probably always going to be expensive, but I think that's okay: it helps tilt the bulk of production to renewables and ensures it will be used as baseload capacity for when renewables aren't producing enough, or in locations where renewables aren't as effective (very high or very low latitudes).
I'm pro-nuclear in the limited sense that I think we need to keep the expertise and practical knowledge of nuclear energy around, but I'm anti- in the sense that US-designed plants and infrastructure are criminally wasteful of naturally fissionable uranium. We shouldn't build any more nuclear plants until we work out the rest of the fuel cycle, proliferation concerns be damned.
posted by Kadin2048 at 8:33 AM on August 1, 2022 [6 favorites]
Note that this is only true with the really asinine form of nuclear power that's dominant in the US and UK, which treats fissionable uranium like the ultimate fossil fuel, to be "burned" in reactors that produce nothing but waste.
Other countries have pursued nuclear energy more thoughtfully, with "full fuel cycle" programs. Both the French and the Soviets understood that a complete nuclear fuel cycle was the key to making nuclear energy practicable over the long haul. You use the small amount of natural fissionable uranium to turn naturally un-fissionable uranium (the bulk of what's available) into plutonium, then chemically separate the plutonium and send it back to the reactors. Plutonium reactors can be quite small, too. In the end you do end up with waste, but the real win is that there's much less mining required, and TBH that's where nuclear is actually dirty. Waste disposal is a NIMBY problem but fundamentally not that hard, while mining uranium without leaving lots of toxic tailings blowing in the wind is actually more expensive and harder.
Unfortunately, the US has generally kept anyone else from pursuing the full fuel cycle, because the same facilities that can be used to reprocess nuclear fuel rods can, in theory, be used to create nuclear weapons. (Which is sorta "duh", but it's not that different a problem to the fact that a fertilizer plant can make explosives, or a chemical plant can make nerve gas. That's just how industrial facilities work. The fact that we absolutely shit ourselves over nuclear proliferation, but not over other threats to our continued existence on this planet, and "concerns" about proliferation just happen to align with those of the oil companies and our oil-rich allies... hmmmm.)
Nuclear energy is probably always going to be expensive, but I think that's okay: it helps tilt the bulk of production to renewables and ensures it will be used as baseload capacity for when renewables aren't producing enough, or in locations where renewables aren't as effective (very high or very low latitudes).
I'm pro-nuclear in the limited sense that I think we need to keep the expertise and practical knowledge of nuclear energy around, but I'm anti- in the sense that US-designed plants and infrastructure are criminally wasteful of naturally fissionable uranium. We shouldn't build any more nuclear plants until we work out the rest of the fuel cycle, proliferation concerns be damned.
posted by Kadin2048 at 8:33 AM on August 1, 2022 [6 favorites]
Our neighborhood covenants (written around 2006) forbid solar panels. And getting them amended is, apparently, slightly less possible than achieving faster-than-light travel. I have a large, unobstructed expanse of roof facing south that is begging to have panels put in place.
This is where the feds can easily help.
States can help too. For example, in California, all new housing construction must include solar panels (either per house or community), and that overrides any neighborhood covenants.
posted by eye of newt at 10:57 AM on August 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
This is where the feds can easily help.
States can help too. For example, in California, all new housing construction must include solar panels (either per house or community), and that overrides any neighborhood covenants.
posted by eye of newt at 10:57 AM on August 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
Batteries are like babies
Electrons in the wild: "I WILL OXIDIZE ALL THE IRON IN THE FUCKING WORLD!"
Electrons in captivity: "You pushed me into the battery too fast! The pH of this electrolyte is slightly off! Wah there are dendrites!"
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:55 PM on August 1, 2022 [13 favorites]
Electrons in the wild: "I WILL OXIDIZE ALL THE IRON IN THE FUCKING WORLD!"
Electrons in captivity: "You pushed me into the battery too fast! The pH of this electrolyte is slightly off! Wah there are dendrites!"
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:55 PM on August 1, 2022 [13 favorites]
When the big nuclear build out was happening, everyone thought that Uranium was a lot rarer than it turns out to be and a lot of choices were made as a result.
Most countries assumed that light water thermal reactors (PWRs, VVERs, and BWRs) and gas cooled thermal reactors (RBMK, Magnox, and AGR) were just an initial generation which would last for 40 years and then need to be replaced with the next generation of breeder reactors.
As a result, they were mostly built to last 40 years and fuel was often stored onsite after use because it was assumed that it would soon be reprocessed (true in France, not true anymore in the US and UK since both countries have enough material stockpiled for their weapons programmes). It turns out that LWRs last a lot longer than 40 years actually which is why they're mostly being life extended. (the life limiting element is neutron bombardment embrittlement of the middle region of the pressure vessel and there has been a lot of work on annealing those to bake the embrittlement out).
Unfortunately, the UK's AGRs are outlasting their 30 year design lives by 10 to 15 years but no more because the graphite moderator gets embrittled and cannot be replaced. It also adsorbs lots of radioactive gubbins over the years which makes decommissioning AGRs a process of taking down all the rest of the plant around the reactor pressure vessel and then keeping it filled with dry nitrogen for 100 years at which point the graphite can safely come out. Compare that to many LWRs where with steam generator replacement on the older Western PWRs (VVER SGs maybe due to excellent Soviet theoretical metallurgy are lasting much longer) many units will last for 60 or more years.
Note that the French are basically all light water reactors as well, until the last two generations they were straight up licensed Westinghouse designs. Always thought that the French and British played against stereotype: One of them went for the pragmatic decision and bought American, the other decided that national pride required their own design. To be fair, there are a lot of advantages from a safety point of view of the AGR design but it didn't end up being great economically.
So it's not the case that French actually use breeders in practice but they do reprocess their spent fuel.
posted by atrazine at 4:53 AM on August 2, 2022 [5 favorites]
Most countries assumed that light water thermal reactors (PWRs, VVERs, and BWRs) and gas cooled thermal reactors (RBMK, Magnox, and AGR) were just an initial generation which would last for 40 years and then need to be replaced with the next generation of breeder reactors.
As a result, they were mostly built to last 40 years and fuel was often stored onsite after use because it was assumed that it would soon be reprocessed (true in France, not true anymore in the US and UK since both countries have enough material stockpiled for their weapons programmes). It turns out that LWRs last a lot longer than 40 years actually which is why they're mostly being life extended. (the life limiting element is neutron bombardment embrittlement of the middle region of the pressure vessel and there has been a lot of work on annealing those to bake the embrittlement out).
Unfortunately, the UK's AGRs are outlasting their 30 year design lives by 10 to 15 years but no more because the graphite moderator gets embrittled and cannot be replaced. It also adsorbs lots of radioactive gubbins over the years which makes decommissioning AGRs a process of taking down all the rest of the plant around the reactor pressure vessel and then keeping it filled with dry nitrogen for 100 years at which point the graphite can safely come out. Compare that to many LWRs where with steam generator replacement on the older Western PWRs (VVER SGs maybe due to excellent Soviet theoretical metallurgy are lasting much longer) many units will last for 60 or more years.
Note that the French are basically all light water reactors as well, until the last two generations they were straight up licensed Westinghouse designs. Always thought that the French and British played against stereotype: One of them went for the pragmatic decision and bought American, the other decided that national pride required their own design. To be fair, there are a lot of advantages from a safety point of view of the AGR design but it didn't end up being great economically.
So it's not the case that French actually use breeders in practice but they do reprocess their spent fuel.
posted by atrazine at 4:53 AM on August 2, 2022 [5 favorites]
I briefly worked in a nuclear reactor where the oldest employees had started their careers during WWII. They all said the the US, also, originally planned to reprocess its fuel for energy; IIRC everything was to go to one plant in the TVA, on slow visible white trains announced long in advance so every bridge and switch on the route would have been freshly maintained.
Then we lost… you know, I don’t think the late-career crew ever came to a consensus on what failed first; the technical care to do this as safely as possible, the national cohesion to accept some risk for benefit, the ability to measure all the risks against each other instead of fixating on one of them. But we changed our plans with fuel rods already hot.
posted by clew at 10:12 AM on August 2, 2022 [5 favorites]
Then we lost… you know, I don’t think the late-career crew ever came to a consensus on what failed first; the technical care to do this as safely as possible, the national cohesion to accept some risk for benefit, the ability to measure all the risks against each other instead of fixating on one of them. But we changed our plans with fuel rods already hot.
posted by clew at 10:12 AM on August 2, 2022 [5 favorites]
The TÜV thinks that three decommissioned German nuclear power plants can easily be brought back into operation. There's quite some discussion about not shutting down the last operational plants , especially in light of recent events, but it seems like the public discourse was under the assumption that the already-closed plants could not easily be re-activated.
posted by Harald74 at 12:48 AM on August 3, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 12:48 AM on August 3, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Google solar calculator tells me that I will only save $4,000 over twenty years, and I don't know if I'll be alive in twenty years. I am also worried that Rocky Mountain Power will continue to aggressively lobby the horrible Utah state legislature and repeal the requirement that they pay for surplus power.
That said, we are still looking into getting solar.
posted by mecran01 at 2:59 PM on August 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
That said, we are still looking into getting solar.
posted by mecran01 at 2:59 PM on August 4, 2022 [3 favorites]
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(Because of my latitude and weather, the 3 winter months are pretty shit, but there's still some useful generation a lot of days, and our country has big hydro generation... if we could lower usage in summer so there's enough stored lake water for fully renewable in winter as well, then we're going be doing great).
posted by i_am_joe's_spleen at 2:02 AM on July 31, 2022 [16 favorites]