Ukraine Update: The Counter Attack Begins
August 29, 2022 10:35 AM Subscribe
Six months into the Russian war on Ukraine, after weeks of seeming stalemate, Ukrainian forces launched their long expected counter offensive in the Kherson region north of the Dnipro river. Over the last month Ukraine has degraded the major river crossings, blown up Russian weapons depots and used American provided HARM missiles to destroy Russian air defenses. Meanwhile Russia has rushed 25,000 troops into the region to be ready to defend the region.
...I'm kind of amazed it wasn't until the late date of 1983 that the US military-industrial complex decided to name something the HARM missile.
The Reagan years.
posted by Thorzdad at 10:46 AM on August 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
The Reagan years.
posted by Thorzdad at 10:46 AM on August 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
I'm kind of amazed it wasn't until the late date of 1983 that the US military-industrial complex decided to name something the HARM missile.
I'm convinced that most of the time, they come up with the acronym first, and then dream up something to support (usually quite a stretch) what the letters in the ASSKICKER missile or whatever stand for.
posted by xedrik at 11:00 AM on August 29, 2022 [9 favorites]
I'm convinced that most of the time, they come up with the acronym first, and then dream up something to support (usually quite a stretch) what the letters in the ASSKICKER missile or whatever stand for.
posted by xedrik at 11:00 AM on August 29, 2022 [9 favorites]
I found this to be an interesting analysis of where we may be headed...
posted by jim in austin at 11:04 AM on August 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by jim in austin at 11:04 AM on August 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
Between 20,000 (US est.) and 47,000 (UKR est.) Russian soldiers killed so far. I believe this is a greater number than all other post-WW2 Russian combat deaths (Afghanistan, Chechnya, ...) combined. And its only been six months.
posted by gwint at 11:09 AM on August 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by gwint at 11:09 AM on August 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
The actual Ukrainian government ministers have deleted their twitter posts about the counter offensive being launched, so I'm thinking that's not a good sign of success.
posted by Iax at 11:13 AM on August 29, 2022
posted by Iax at 11:13 AM on August 29, 2022
Or the central command/MoD told them to shut up, please. It's been all regional people saying it is happening, and I'm pretty sure that whatever is happening MoD would like to talk about it only after it happens. Far better to announce success afterwards than to admit failure, plus you don't want to tell the enemy what you are doing. It's also possible they are testing the Russian lines looking for weak spots rather than a full-on attack, and the local people are getting excited.
posted by tavella at 11:20 AM on August 29, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by tavella at 11:20 AM on August 29, 2022 [17 favorites]
I've been reading the Ukraine SITREP substack that I may have been pointed to on the blue. The most recent newsletter has a chart showing how bad the Russian military losses have been. The number of Russian soldier deaths/day is 200x previous conflicts (since WWII).
posted by little onion at 11:28 AM on August 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by little onion at 11:28 AM on August 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has allegedly asked Ukraine based bloggers and influencers to “shut up”
posted by interogative mood at 11:46 AM on August 29, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 11:46 AM on August 29, 2022 [15 favorites]
The high-end estimate of Russian KIA in six months is identical to US battle KIA in Vietnam over six+ years (1965-1971). Russia has 72% of the population the US had in 1970.
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 11:47 AM on August 29, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by Heywood Mogroot III at 11:47 AM on August 29, 2022 [12 favorites]
These Russian casualty numbers are extremely unreliable. Meduza and BBC have been able to confirm 5424 KIA as of early August by using evidence from other sources. It is not possible that actual KIA are lower than this, but whether they are in fact much higher (i.e. ~15k) is an extremely open question. The Ukrainian estimates are pure propaganda, which is fine but they're not something you can use analytically.
posted by derrinyet at 11:50 AM on August 29, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by derrinyet at 11:50 AM on August 29, 2022 [12 favorites]
This is your periodic reminder that number of casualties is not the same as number killed. 'Casualties' means soldiers who aren't fighting anymore and includes killed, wounded, and captured. Generally there's one soldier killed for every two wounded or captured.
posted by echo target at 11:50 AM on August 29, 2022 [22 favorites]
posted by echo target at 11:50 AM on August 29, 2022 [22 favorites]
A bit of analysis from the US military via CNN’s Jim Scuitto.
This seems to suggest that Ukraine may just be starting to transition from shaping operations to actual combined arms offensives.
posted by interogative mood at 11:56 AM on August 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
This seems to suggest that Ukraine may just be starting to transition from shaping operations to actual combined arms offensives.
posted by interogative mood at 11:56 AM on August 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Chief of the General Staff of the Ukrainian Armed Forces has allegedly asked Ukraine based bloggers and influencers to “shut up”
As I thought!
posted by tavella at 11:59 AM on August 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
As I thought!
posted by tavella at 11:59 AM on August 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
It is not possible that actual KIA are lower than this, but whether they are in fact much higher (i.e. ~15k) is an extremely open question.
No, it's pretty much certain. Much of the Russian cannon fodder has been from the extremely poor regions of Russia, plus DNR/LDR, people whose deaths are highly unlikely to get obituaries online. If 5424 can be confirmed from public media, deaths are nearly certainly multiples of that.
posted by tavella at 12:08 PM on August 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
No, it's pretty much certain. Much of the Russian cannon fodder has been from the extremely poor regions of Russia, plus DNR/LDR, people whose deaths are highly unlikely to get obituaries online. If 5424 can be confirmed from public media, deaths are nearly certainly multiples of that.
posted by tavella at 12:08 PM on August 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
This DailyKos article talks about how Russia is now trying to recruit men up to age 60 without any military experience.
posted by emjaybee at 12:11 PM on August 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by emjaybee at 12:11 PM on August 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
Re: the communication blackout from the Ukrainians: On the other hand, Igor Girkin is pissed, and that's always a good sign.
posted by Harald74 at 12:15 PM on August 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:15 PM on August 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Re my earlier link since I missed the edit window, the writer is Not Great about calling Russians "drunks" and "saps" but he provides links for the actual issues the army is having that I thought were interesting.
posted by emjaybee at 12:19 PM on August 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by emjaybee at 12:19 PM on August 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
From jim in austin’s link...
...the U.S. should encourage Turkey...to permit a NATO or U.S. naval mission into the Black Sea.
This suggestion makes me veeeeeeeery nervous.
posted by Thorzdad at 12:20 PM on August 29, 2022 [11 favorites]
...the U.S. should encourage Turkey...to permit a NATO or U.S. naval mission into the Black Sea.
This suggestion makes me veeeeeeeery nervous.
posted by Thorzdad at 12:20 PM on August 29, 2022 [11 favorites]
That doesn't make me as nervous as the article calling for a no fly zone in the west of Ukraine.
A no fly zone means shooting down aircraft that violate it -- it would be literal NATO military intervention. A no fly zone is entering the war.
posted by tclark at 12:25 PM on August 29, 2022 [23 favorites]
A no fly zone means shooting down aircraft that violate it -- it would be literal NATO military intervention. A no fly zone is entering the war.
posted by tclark at 12:25 PM on August 29, 2022 [23 favorites]
...the U.S. should encourage Turkey...to permit a NATO or U.S. naval mission into the Black Sea.
Bad idea. Turkey's right to close the Bosporus comes from the legitimate concern that they might have a repeat of the Halifax Explosion disaster in Istanbul, and that the resulting compromise of the shipping channel would cause, well, basically the collapse of our civilization.
That's why they have the right to say nothing that goes boom can float past, regardless of the flag it floats with. If they discriminate and let some warships pass, that opens up international law for renegotiation, and that can go bad very quickly.
posted by ocschwar at 12:32 PM on August 29, 2022 [12 favorites]
Bad idea. Turkey's right to close the Bosporus comes from the legitimate concern that they might have a repeat of the Halifax Explosion disaster in Istanbul, and that the resulting compromise of the shipping channel would cause, well, basically the collapse of our civilization.
That's why they have the right to say nothing that goes boom can float past, regardless of the flag it floats with. If they discriminate and let some warships pass, that opens up international law for renegotiation, and that can go bad very quickly.
posted by ocschwar at 12:32 PM on August 29, 2022 [12 favorites]
If we're lucky, reliable figures on KIA, weapons loss, native support for/rejection of the war, rate at which NATO/Russia are depleting/rebuilding their stockpiles, the reliability and ultimate disposition of American made Wunderwaffen, etc. may appear in the years following the war. But not before.
That said, the side by side comparisons are probably more or or less correct. Smaller forces sometimes prevail against greater, but historically, that's not the way to bet.
Waist deep in big muddy.
posted by BWA at 12:34 PM on August 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
That said, the side by side comparisons are probably more or or less correct. Smaller forces sometimes prevail against greater, but historically, that's not the way to bet.
Waist deep in big muddy.
posted by BWA at 12:34 PM on August 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
the writer is Not Great about calling Russians "drunks"
It seems to be literal in this case.
Yahoo News: Russian troops in a new combat unit meant to turn the tide in Ukraine keep getting drunk and harassing locals, nearby residents say
It seems to be literal in this case.
Yahoo News: Russian troops in a new combat unit meant to turn the tide in Ukraine keep getting drunk and harassing locals, nearby residents say
But one such unit, the 3rd Army Corps, has troops apparently spending much of their time inebriated and bothering local residents in the area where it's training, per a Wall Street Journal report. Such observations may indicate that these recent recruits lack discipline and will struggle to bolster Russia's war effort in a significant capacity.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 12:35 PM on August 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
Turkey's right to close the Bosporus comes from the legitimate concern that they might have a repeat of the Halifax Explosion disaster in Istanbul, and that the resulting compromise of the shipping channel would cause, well, basically the collapse of our civilization.
...what?
e: just to be clear, I believe this is wrong in every detail. Maybe you are thinking of a different strait?
posted by ryanrs at 12:38 PM on August 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
...what?
e: just to be clear, I believe this is wrong in every detail. Maybe you are thinking of a different strait?
posted by ryanrs at 12:38 PM on August 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
I'm convinced that most of the time, they come up with the acronym first, and then dream up something to support (usually quite a stretch) what the letters in the ASSKICKER missile or whatever stand for.
Is there any better proof of this than the VAMPIRE missile system that we have started to send to Ukraine?
posted by Dip Flash at 12:50 PM on August 29, 2022
Is there any better proof of this than the VAMPIRE missile system that we have started to send to Ukraine?
posted by Dip Flash at 12:50 PM on August 29, 2022
Yeah, I wasn't aware the Bosporus was globally important in that way, like the Straits of Hormuz or Malacca are. Although I'd be happy to stand corrected. It's definitely extremely important regionally, and Ukraine's commercial shipping that they've spent months negotiating for has to go through the Bosporus. Compromising it is a big deal.
I've been feeling a little anxiety in the US, idunno if it's just me, about being half-in and half-out of the war. I'm not surprised that some people would rather be in.
From the Hill article previously linked: "As the Russo-Ukrainian war grinds into its sixth full month, we must reckon with strategic reality. Russia is losing ground, and its strategic position will only deteriorate in coming months; further military reversals will intensify its strategic quandary. Three possibilities exist — revolution, a palace coup, or horizontal escalation — and the United States should prepare for each."
Change in Russian government seems as far away as ever, and I have no idea what horizontal escalation would mean, and last I heard the strategic situation still looked mostly like a stalemate. So I'm not entirely sure what I should take from this. Would love it if someone wanted to explain horizontal escalation.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 12:54 PM on August 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
I've been feeling a little anxiety in the US, idunno if it's just me, about being half-in and half-out of the war. I'm not surprised that some people would rather be in.
From the Hill article previously linked: "As the Russo-Ukrainian war grinds into its sixth full month, we must reckon with strategic reality. Russia is losing ground, and its strategic position will only deteriorate in coming months; further military reversals will intensify its strategic quandary. Three possibilities exist — revolution, a palace coup, or horizontal escalation — and the United States should prepare for each."
Change in Russian government seems as far away as ever, and I have no idea what horizontal escalation would mean, and last I heard the strategic situation still looked mostly like a stalemate. So I'm not entirely sure what I should take from this. Would love it if someone wanted to explain horizontal escalation.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 12:54 PM on August 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Would love it if someone wanted to explain horizontal escalation.
Vertical escalation is upping the weapons systems (e.g., sending in tanks to what was previously an infantry only conflict.) Horizontal escalation is "widening the war" to additional territory/countries.
I'm not sure how Russia is going to do the latter. If anything they've narrowed their ambitions since the start.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:15 PM on August 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
Vertical escalation is upping the weapons systems (e.g., sending in tanks to what was previously an infantry only conflict.) Horizontal escalation is "widening the war" to additional territory/countries.
I'm not sure how Russia is going to do the latter. If anything they've narrowed their ambitions since the start.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 1:15 PM on August 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
Yeah I read that graf and was like, there are many more options, no? Stalemate, grinding attrition, de facto new borders..?
posted by gwint at 1:17 PM on August 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by gwint at 1:17 PM on August 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
But, by god, what we need to do is enter this war for real while the gettin's good. [/s]
By all that's, holy please PTB, ignore anyone who wants to enforce a no-fly zone or bring warships into the Black Sea. I was kind of hoping to finish out my days without witnessing World War Next.
posted by djeo at 1:24 PM on August 29, 2022 [12 favorites]
By all that's, holy please PTB, ignore anyone who wants to enforce a no-fly zone or bring warships into the Black Sea. I was kind of hoping to finish out my days without witnessing World War Next.
posted by djeo at 1:24 PM on August 29, 2022 [12 favorites]
I am amused that the the VAMPIRE has a helpful arrow on the side labeled FRONT TOWARDS ENEMY. Always good to know which end of the sword is the pointy one.
posted by Quasirandom at 1:37 PM on August 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Quasirandom at 1:37 PM on August 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
I'm not sure how Russia is going to do the latter. If anything they've narrowed their ambitions since the start.
Say that NATO has declared war on Russia, begin general mobilization, start Great Patriotic War 2: Transnistria Boogaloo for Moldova.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:39 PM on August 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
Say that NATO has declared war on Russia, begin general mobilization, start Great Patriotic War 2: Transnistria Boogaloo for Moldova.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:39 PM on August 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
The Ukrainian author Yevgenia Belorusets, who wrote a diary from Kyiv during the first phase of the war, has returned to Kyiv. Excerpt:
Today I visited a Kyiv museum that has been converted into a shelter where volunteers make camouflage netting. Women come here every day to fasten small cloth rags to solid nylon, one knot at a time. Sometimes the volunteers’ children and their friends come and work with them. You can also spend the night here on the folding beds that rest in a single corner. One of the women shows me on her cell phone how her little granddaughter sleeps comfortably on the camouflage netting. There’s a twelve-year-old boy here whose reputation as a knotting virtuoso is growing. He ties the nets together with such speed and mastery that he’s won the admiration of the other volunteers.posted by Kattullus at 1:42 PM on August 29, 2022 [48 favorites]
Soldiers of all ranks and positions on the front come here to place their orders. Sometimes they drink tea, enjoy the company, talk and listen. Then the women visit the front line to see which nets are in particular demand. In the next room, medicine is collected and sorted for the front.
The relatives of these women—their husbands, brothers, and friends, their sisters and daughters—are at the front. I know someone who works here named Katerina, and in the mornings she also sees patients as a pediatrician in her practice near the museum. Every day, when she joins her colleagues in the museum offices, she searches the faces of others. If she sees no tears in their eyes nor any deep despair, she concludes that there is no awful news from the front and that fortunately everyone is still alive.
“Sometimes I think,” another volunteer tells me, “it would be better not to know a single person at the front. I go to sleep every night scared to death. There is no peaceful morning, no peaceful hour in my life.”
Yeah, I wasn't aware the Bosporus was globally important in that way, like the Straits of Hormuz or Malacca are.
A lot of people, myself included, spent the last few weeks biting our nails on whether Ukrainian grain will get out of the Black Sea and over to people who will be eating it.
posted by ocschwar at 1:51 PM on August 29, 2022 [11 favorites]
Speculation about hypothetical direct NATO intervention might be considered somewhat off-topic in this thread about the actually occurring Ukrainian offensive.
If some people strongly want to talk about hypothetical NATO-Russian war scenarios, recent past practice on metafilter has been for someone who wants to talk about that to set up a separate post for that conversation.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 1:53 PM on August 29, 2022 [25 favorites]
If some people strongly want to talk about hypothetical NATO-Russian war scenarios, recent past practice on metafilter has been for someone who wants to talk about that to set up a separate post for that conversation.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 1:53 PM on August 29, 2022 [25 favorites]
NATO and Biden and other leaders are not considering a direct intervention and have made very clear that they currently oppose those ideas like no fly zones or naval expeditions to the Black Sea. I don’t think you need to worry about that as a path to ww3. These leaders are being very careful in terms of even what kinds weapons systems they’ve been willing to provide to Ukraine in an attempt to keep this war primarily in Ukraine and not turning into a larger conflict.
posted by interogative mood at 1:58 PM on August 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 1:58 PM on August 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
The strait of Bosporus goes through the heart of Istanbul (hence the Halifax comparison) and constrains the shipping of Bulgaria, Romania, Moldova, Ukraine, southern Russia, Georgia, and the oil exports of Azerbaijan (via their pipeline).
posted by Bee'sWing at 2:20 PM on August 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Bee'sWing at 2:20 PM on August 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
Would love it if someone wanted to explain horizontal escalation
Spreading the war to other places. For example mobilizing Belarus, or, as is rumored client states like Syria and Zimbabwe. Invading Moldova to open another front on the "safe" side of Ukraine. A naval war in the Black sea with Russian Navy and aircraft engaging commercial shipping to and from Ukraine ports. Making the zone of conflict wider and more messy, spreading the war.
NATO wants none of these things to happen. To the Russian leadership, bad choices or threatening them might give leverage to loosen sanctions or make deals for land. How close are they to "Do something, even if it's a bad idea" mode?
posted by bonehead at 2:39 PM on August 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
Spreading the war to other places. For example mobilizing Belarus, or, as is rumored client states like Syria and Zimbabwe. Invading Moldova to open another front on the "safe" side of Ukraine. A naval war in the Black sea with Russian Navy and aircraft engaging commercial shipping to and from Ukraine ports. Making the zone of conflict wider and more messy, spreading the war.
NATO wants none of these things to happen. To the Russian leadership, bad choices or threatening them might give leverage to loosen sanctions or make deals for land. How close are they to "Do something, even if it's a bad idea" mode?
posted by bonehead at 2:39 PM on August 29, 2022 [3 favorites]
~I'm not sure how Russia is going to do the latter. If anything they've narrowed their ambitions since the start.
~Say that NATO has declared war on Russia, begin general mobilization, start Great Patriotic War 2: Transnistria Boogaloo for Moldova.
Didn’t Putin already say Russia was at war with NATO recently?
posted by Thorzdad at 2:48 PM on August 29, 2022
~Say that NATO has declared war on Russia, begin general mobilization, start Great Patriotic War 2: Transnistria Boogaloo for Moldova.
Didn’t Putin already say Russia was at war with NATO recently?
posted by Thorzdad at 2:48 PM on August 29, 2022
Russian claims that they are actually fighting NATO are likely being used to prepare the public for a possible defeat in Ukraine. See also previous claims that their operation around Kyiv was only a feint, with the real objective being Donbas, and that they withdrew from Snake Island as a gesture of goodwill, etc.
posted by interogative mood at 2:52 PM on August 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 2:52 PM on August 29, 2022 [8 favorites]
I'm convinced that most of the time, they come up with the acronym first, and then dream up something to support (usually quite a stretch) what the letters in the ASSKICKER missile or whatever stand for.
e.g., the Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism Act, AKA USA PATRIOT Act
posted by kirkaracha at 2:58 PM on August 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
e.g., the Uniting and Strengthening America by Providing Appropriate Tools Required to Intercept and Obstruct Terrorism Act, AKA USA PATRIOT Act
posted by kirkaracha at 2:58 PM on August 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
Also, wasn't there a law on the proper retention of Presidential records titled the COVFEFE Act?
posted by acb at 3:03 PM on August 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by acb at 3:03 PM on August 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
I think it was the Covering Obstructionist, Very Feeble Excuses Forever Eternally Act.
posted by hippybear at 3:06 PM on August 29, 2022 [18 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 3:06 PM on August 29, 2022 [18 favorites]
I think Putin probably understands that it would be a very bad idea for Russia to "escalate horizontally" by dragging NATO directly into the war. Ukraine is the poorest per-capita country in Europe, and Russia can't even handle Ukraine and only Ukraine. And of course I do not mean to minimize Ukraine's part in all this, but NATO's both-arms-tied-behind-its-back help is a significant factor in this war. Actually unleashing NATO strikes me as an unbelievably dumb thing for Putin to do.
Honestly, I think it's more likely that Russia would attack Belarus than a NATO member state. And yes, I understand that Belarus is one of Russia's firmest, if not the firmest, ally.
As for "escalating horizontally" via Zimbabwe... uh... huh? Who's Zimbabwe going to attack? And how would that help Russia?
posted by Flunkie at 4:10 PM on August 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
Honestly, I think it's more likely that Russia would attack Belarus than a NATO member state. And yes, I understand that Belarus is one of Russia's firmest, if not the firmest, ally.
As for "escalating horizontally" via Zimbabwe... uh... huh? Who's Zimbabwe going to attack? And how would that help Russia?
posted by Flunkie at 4:10 PM on August 29, 2022 [2 favorites]
And how would that help Russia?
An interesting question. The UN sanctions placed on Zimbabwe increased ties with Russia and China.
UN Rapporteur Calls for Lifting of Zimbabwe Sanctions. (VOA)
October 28, 2021
How is that working?
"Zimbabwe was one of the few countries that voted with Russia on United Nations General Assembly Resolution 68/262 about the annexation of Crimea."
Does Russia really need the Agri or minerals? No but a further foothold, defending the people's right to export goods in a land locked area type of thing, it's a challenge to the UN and Russia could move advisers in and if escalation ensues, what will China do?
It's ancillary but the wider geopolitical ramifications of a protracted war in Ukraine, putting further stress on economic systems, it's highly dangerous.
posted by clavdivs at 5:11 PM on August 29, 2022
An interesting question. The UN sanctions placed on Zimbabwe increased ties with Russia and China.
UN Rapporteur Calls for Lifting of Zimbabwe Sanctions. (VOA)
October 28, 2021
How is that working?
"Zimbabwe was one of the few countries that voted with Russia on United Nations General Assembly Resolution 68/262 about the annexation of Crimea."
Does Russia really need the Agri or minerals? No but a further foothold, defending the people's right to export goods in a land locked area type of thing, it's a challenge to the UN and Russia could move advisers in and if escalation ensues, what will China do?
It's ancillary but the wider geopolitical ramifications of a protracted war in Ukraine, putting further stress on economic systems, it's highly dangerous.
posted by clavdivs at 5:11 PM on August 29, 2022
Where do the smart kids now stand on the possibility of Putin gong nuclear if he feels he’s about to have his ass handed to him? When this mess started, there seemed to be more than a few voices of the opinion that Putin was just disconnected from reality enough to actually throw a nuke or two.
posted by Thorzdad at 5:20 PM on August 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Thorzdad at 5:20 PM on August 29, 2022 [1 favorite]
If Putin loses he probably isn’t going to be able to carry out some burn the world down nuclear strike. His political authority will have collapsed at that point and there will be a scramble to figure out who will replace him and blame him for the fiasco.
posted by interogative mood at 5:49 PM on August 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 5:49 PM on August 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
Putin hasn't formally declared war or called for general mobilization because he fears the domestic political consequences of doing so.
And if he isn't even willing to do that, I really don't think he's going to fire off nukes, either.
posted by ryanrs at 6:47 PM on August 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
And if he isn't even willing to do that, I really don't think he's going to fire off nukes, either.
posted by ryanrs at 6:47 PM on August 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
That said, the side by side comparisons are probably more or or less correct. Smaller forces sometimes prevail against greater, but historically, that's not the way to bet.
It's clear that a lot of those numbers were Potemkin numbers; the amount of actual functional up to date equipment Russia has is considerably less. And it turns out that having ten times the aircraft doesn't help when you don't dare fly over Ukrainian-held territory, as has been the case for months with Russia. Nor does having a fleet versus a country without a navy help much when they can sink your flagship and multiple other ships and mostly chase you out of the Black Sea to hide near port.
The only thing really keeping Russia in the game is artillery, which appears to be the one section of their military power that hasn't gone to rot. But it's clear that this point that Russia can't defeat Ukraine militarily as long as UA gets continuing Western support; post Kyiv retreat, what small gains they have had in Donbas were almost perfectly balanced with losses around Kherson and Kharkiv. The question is whether Ukraine can take back cities, or whether it ends up a frozen conflict. And whether their economy can hold out, especially since Germany has prevented the disbursement of most of the allocated EU budget support. Zelenskyy was really clear about the economic side of the war in the Washington Post interview a week or two ago. Russia tried hard to collapse Ukraine's economy in the leadup (with unintentional help from the US), and they are having to print money to pay their soldiers, pensions, and social support.
posted by tavella at 6:51 PM on August 29, 2022 [9 favorites]
It's clear that a lot of those numbers were Potemkin numbers; the amount of actual functional up to date equipment Russia has is considerably less. And it turns out that having ten times the aircraft doesn't help when you don't dare fly over Ukrainian-held territory, as has been the case for months with Russia. Nor does having a fleet versus a country without a navy help much when they can sink your flagship and multiple other ships and mostly chase you out of the Black Sea to hide near port.
The only thing really keeping Russia in the game is artillery, which appears to be the one section of their military power that hasn't gone to rot. But it's clear that this point that Russia can't defeat Ukraine militarily as long as UA gets continuing Western support; post Kyiv retreat, what small gains they have had in Donbas were almost perfectly balanced with losses around Kherson and Kharkiv. The question is whether Ukraine can take back cities, or whether it ends up a frozen conflict. And whether their economy can hold out, especially since Germany has prevented the disbursement of most of the allocated EU budget support. Zelenskyy was really clear about the economic side of the war in the Washington Post interview a week or two ago. Russia tried hard to collapse Ukraine's economy in the leadup (with unintentional help from the US), and they are having to print money to pay their soldiers, pensions, and social support.
posted by tavella at 6:51 PM on August 29, 2022 [9 favorites]
They thought they could one-punch KO the leadership, so they took a swing, missed, their pants fell down, and now they're rolling around in the mud. They're in a no-win quagmire.
Apparently they knew about the invasion route because google maps was reporting traffic jams at the Belarus border. They closed those roads to local traffic, and let the columns through. They stopped them in the forest and cut off the fuel supply. Big swing, big miss.
They can't even occupy the place. Occupation was probably Ukraine's plan A. The babushkas alone! There is nothing more resilient or stubborn than a grandma made of 100% Ukrainium. The resistance is going to be well fed. We spent a trillion dollars occupying Afghanistan, something that should be familiar to the Russians. And it didn't work. Ukraine is totally different. It's a modern sophisticated country with a huge well-educated population with broad international support. It won't be like Afghanistan, it will be a million times worse for the occupiers.
The power-plant at Zaporizhzhia - that needs to be a DEMILITARIZED ZONE. No war shit within 30 miles PERIOD. The Russian's cannot claim the moral high ground if they're launching attacks from there. I mean, I can't believe the stupidity of this - NO WAR SHIT NEAR THE NUCLEAR POWER PLANT.
posted by adept256 at 7:07 PM on August 29, 2022 [19 favorites]
Apparently they knew about the invasion route because google maps was reporting traffic jams at the Belarus border. They closed those roads to local traffic, and let the columns through. They stopped them in the forest and cut off the fuel supply. Big swing, big miss.
They can't even occupy the place. Occupation was probably Ukraine's plan A. The babushkas alone! There is nothing more resilient or stubborn than a grandma made of 100% Ukrainium. The resistance is going to be well fed. We spent a trillion dollars occupying Afghanistan, something that should be familiar to the Russians. And it didn't work. Ukraine is totally different. It's a modern sophisticated country with a huge well-educated population with broad international support. It won't be like Afghanistan, it will be a million times worse for the occupiers.
The power-plant at Zaporizhzhia - that needs to be a DEMILITARIZED ZONE. No war shit within 30 miles PERIOD. The Russian's cannot claim the moral high ground if they're launching attacks from there. I mean, I can't believe the stupidity of this - NO WAR SHIT NEAR THE NUCLEAR POWER PLANT.
posted by adept256 at 7:07 PM on August 29, 2022 [19 favorites]
The Russians can and will claim the moral high ground regardless of any reality.
posted by Flunkie at 7:11 PM on August 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Flunkie at 7:11 PM on August 29, 2022 [7 favorites]
But it's clear that this point that Russia can't defeat Ukraine militarily
Well the real question is whether Ukraine can defeat Russia militarily...
As per the BBC map, Russia now has the land bridge to Crimea, also securing its water supply in the process. They've pushed out of Crimea and taken Kherson. They have also expanded control to the full region of Luhansk, from controlling just 1/3 of it previously.
Russia could plausibly just freeze the borders as they are today and call it a victory, having taken control of vast quantities of natural resources, farmland and infrastructure, and it would be up to Ukraine to dislodge them.
This is why Ukraine is attacking now, ready or not - September is their last chance to take back territory before winter arrives and freezes the battle lines. It's too early to tell if it's a "last ditch attempt to at least gain back some territory as a symbolic win, at a terrible cost to their soldiers lives and loss of equipment" versus "this was a long planned and coordinated assault on Kherson we were just waiting for the right moment" although, this is strange because it took so many weeks to finally attack Kherson the Russians have been able to heavily reinforce it with units already finished with their work in Luhansk.
posted by xdvesper at 8:02 PM on August 29, 2022 [5 favorites]
Well the real question is whether Ukraine can defeat Russia militarily...
As per the BBC map, Russia now has the land bridge to Crimea, also securing its water supply in the process. They've pushed out of Crimea and taken Kherson. They have also expanded control to the full region of Luhansk, from controlling just 1/3 of it previously.
Russia could plausibly just freeze the borders as they are today and call it a victory, having taken control of vast quantities of natural resources, farmland and infrastructure, and it would be up to Ukraine to dislodge them.
This is why Ukraine is attacking now, ready or not - September is their last chance to take back territory before winter arrives and freezes the battle lines. It's too early to tell if it's a "last ditch attempt to at least gain back some territory as a symbolic win, at a terrible cost to their soldiers lives and loss of equipment" versus "this was a long planned and coordinated assault on Kherson we were just waiting for the right moment" although, this is strange because it took so many weeks to finally attack Kherson the Russians have been able to heavily reinforce it with units already finished with their work in Luhansk.
posted by xdvesper at 8:02 PM on August 29, 2022 [5 favorites]
Russia does not have the ability to unilaterally freeze the conflict, Ukraine gets a say in that question, and winter isn't going to stop things like HIMARS from blowing up their shit. For that matter, winter is a fighting season in Ukraine, once the ground freezes; one of Russia's fuckups was delaying the invasion to suck up to China by not distracting from the Olympics.
As I said, Russia isn't going to win militarily. Their only hopes are to win politically by disrupting Western support of Ukraine, or economically by Ukraine no longer being able to pay their military or provide sufficient food and energy for their civilians. I don't think those are entirely longshots either, plenty of Europe has been dancing with fascists even when times are good and times are probably not going to be good this winter. And if Republicans take back Congress, high chance of an instant 180 on support for Ukraine, because the MAGAs are in love with Putin and they are the tiller of the party. It won't entirely stop support because the executive can do a lot on their own with existing bills, but it would certainly interfere with it.
posted by tavella at 9:17 PM on August 29, 2022 [16 favorites]
As I said, Russia isn't going to win militarily. Their only hopes are to win politically by disrupting Western support of Ukraine, or economically by Ukraine no longer being able to pay their military or provide sufficient food and energy for their civilians. I don't think those are entirely longshots either, plenty of Europe has been dancing with fascists even when times are good and times are probably not going to be good this winter. And if Republicans take back Congress, high chance of an instant 180 on support for Ukraine, because the MAGAs are in love with Putin and they are the tiller of the party. It won't entirely stop support because the executive can do a lot on their own with existing bills, but it would certainly interfere with it.
posted by tavella at 9:17 PM on August 29, 2022 [16 favorites]
You keep saying Russia isn't going to win, but... what else are they going to win?
They already got Luhansk, the land bridge to Crimea, and water supplies for Crimea. Everything they've already taken so far can be annexed just like Crimea. Anything more they might take, can't.
Kherson was a surprise, it was supposed to be the easiest city to defend against Russian attack - there are exactly three crossings at the Dnieper, all heavily embedded with explosives that would blow them up to prevent the Russian advance. It seems significant elements within Kherson welcomed Russian rule and instead let them into the city.
Mariupol offered significant resistance but much of the city has been depopulated and is in the process of being rebuilt.
There's no real reason for Russia to "win" anything more, because none of the other cities would welcome Russian rule anyway. The only thing I could see happening is if the Kherson offensive goes so badly the Russians counter-attack and take land all the way to Mylokaiv or Odessa or something fanciful...
HIMARS isn't really a magic bullet. Yes Ukraine can hit supply dumps a little further in, 80km versus the 30km or so limit of their previous artillery. Russia has been hitting Ukraine supply dumps with their 1500km Kalibr missiles since day 1 of the war.
posted by xdvesper at 10:43 PM on August 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
They already got Luhansk, the land bridge to Crimea, and water supplies for Crimea. Everything they've already taken so far can be annexed just like Crimea. Anything more they might take, can't.
Kherson was a surprise, it was supposed to be the easiest city to defend against Russian attack - there are exactly three crossings at the Dnieper, all heavily embedded with explosives that would blow them up to prevent the Russian advance. It seems significant elements within Kherson welcomed Russian rule and instead let them into the city.
Mariupol offered significant resistance but much of the city has been depopulated and is in the process of being rebuilt.
There's no real reason for Russia to "win" anything more, because none of the other cities would welcome Russian rule anyway. The only thing I could see happening is if the Kherson offensive goes so badly the Russians counter-attack and take land all the way to Mylokaiv or Odessa or something fanciful...
HIMARS isn't really a magic bullet. Yes Ukraine can hit supply dumps a little further in, 80km versus the 30km or so limit of their previous artillery. Russia has been hitting Ukraine supply dumps with their 1500km Kalibr missiles since day 1 of the war.
posted by xdvesper at 10:43 PM on August 29, 2022 [4 favorites]
They haven't won shit.
posted by adept256 at 10:50 PM on August 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by adept256 at 10:50 PM on August 29, 2022 [6 favorites]
Russia has been hitting Ukraine supply dumps with their 1500km Kalibr missiles since day 1 of the war.
Ukraine isn't stupid enough to concentrate front line supplies in large, explodable ammo dumps. The Russians demonstrably are, which is really a symptom of severely degraded capabilities due to manpower losses. Almost everyone who actually trained to be a tanker/nco/officer is dead; they're replenishing and reforming BTGs with untrained volunteers and stop-loss conscripts. The people organizing the war now for the Russians are junior officers getting yelled at directly by Putin.
They can pack all the manpower and decrepit T-64 tanks they want into Kherson oblast. The Ukrainians have spent a month "shaping" the battlefield, meaning destroying the large, simple supply and command centers on which the RA in Kherson depends, and what you're left with is a bunch of ready-to-surrender soldiers spread too thin, hungry, and without the ammo they need to keep the UA back, or a bridge to retreat across. The Russian Army is numerous and dumb and trapped; the UA is well-equipped now and led by intelligent leadership that understands results rather than orders.
I'm pretty optimistic at this point.
posted by fatbird at 11:37 PM on August 29, 2022 [19 favorites]
Ukraine isn't stupid enough to concentrate front line supplies in large, explodable ammo dumps. The Russians demonstrably are, which is really a symptom of severely degraded capabilities due to manpower losses. Almost everyone who actually trained to be a tanker/nco/officer is dead; they're replenishing and reforming BTGs with untrained volunteers and stop-loss conscripts. The people organizing the war now for the Russians are junior officers getting yelled at directly by Putin.
They can pack all the manpower and decrepit T-64 tanks they want into Kherson oblast. The Ukrainians have spent a month "shaping" the battlefield, meaning destroying the large, simple supply and command centers on which the RA in Kherson depends, and what you're left with is a bunch of ready-to-surrender soldiers spread too thin, hungry, and without the ammo they need to keep the UA back, or a bridge to retreat across. The Russian Army is numerous and dumb and trapped; the UA is well-equipped now and led by intelligent leadership that understands results rather than orders.
I'm pretty optimistic at this point.
posted by fatbird at 11:37 PM on August 29, 2022 [19 favorites]
In good war related news, the gas blackmail is going about as well as the war for Putin - Germany has its natural gas caves 82% full already so they'll be 100% by start of the heating season in mid to late October. This time Putin underestimated the resilience of the German economy in switching to other sources of gas. And thank heavens, because due to high prices just before this announcement Poland's biggest (state owned!) chemical conglomerates stopped making fertilizers exactly two weeks before the start of winter wheat sowing. And no fertilizers means no liquid CO2 and no packaged meat and dairy, and I gotta admit I was looking up vegan recipes in a bit of a panic there.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:24 AM on August 30, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:24 AM on August 30, 2022 [14 favorites]
They already got Luhansk, the land bridge to Crimea, and water supplies for Crimea. Everything they've already taken so far can be annexed just like Crimea. Anything more they might take, can't.
Kherson was a surprise, it was supposed to be the easiest city to defend against Russian attack - there are exactly three crossings at the Dnieper, all heavily embedded with explosives that would blow them up to prevent the Russian advance. It seems significant elements within Kherson welcomed Russian rule and instead let them into the city.
This is how I felt some time ago but:
Looking at the last month or so, Ukraine has been firing onto Crimea and the south while Russia has been giving it all they've got in the east. Russia tried to force Ukraine to draw resources into the east where occupied Ukraine and Russia share a very long border, while Ukraine would prefer to fight in the south where Russia will have a difficult time. Russia was forced to send more people and supplies into Crimea — as fatbird mentioned above those people will go hungry or surrender while those supplies get eliminated ... those are Russian soldiers and supplies not available to help Russia defend eastern occupied Ukraine later on. Having to reinforce Crimea comes from a position of weakness for Russia.
If Ukraine succeeds this may be checkmate for the entire war.
I hope. Good luck to Ukraine.
posted by UN at 12:32 AM on August 30, 2022 [12 favorites]
Kherson was a surprise, it was supposed to be the easiest city to defend against Russian attack - there are exactly three crossings at the Dnieper, all heavily embedded with explosives that would blow them up to prevent the Russian advance. It seems significant elements within Kherson welcomed Russian rule and instead let them into the city.
This is how I felt some time ago but:
Looking at the last month or so, Ukraine has been firing onto Crimea and the south while Russia has been giving it all they've got in the east. Russia tried to force Ukraine to draw resources into the east where occupied Ukraine and Russia share a very long border, while Ukraine would prefer to fight in the south where Russia will have a difficult time. Russia was forced to send more people and supplies into Crimea — as fatbird mentioned above those people will go hungry or surrender while those supplies get eliminated ... those are Russian soldiers and supplies not available to help Russia defend eastern occupied Ukraine later on. Having to reinforce Crimea comes from a position of weakness for Russia.
If Ukraine succeeds this may be checkmate for the entire war.
I hope. Good luck to Ukraine.
posted by UN at 12:32 AM on August 30, 2022 [12 favorites]
My question is why hasn't Russia done a shock and awe on Kyiv? Like when USA invaded Iraq, they destroyed all the power stations and water treatment plants in the first week. Nothing is stopping Russia from doing this is there? They are still even supplying power from the captured power plants to the rest of Ukraine still.
posted by Iax at 1:28 AM on August 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Iax at 1:28 AM on August 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
I don't think there is a reason to shock and awe Kyiv. They were hoping it would be like Kherson - roll up with some tanks and be welcomed as liberators.
If Kherson welcomes you then fine. If Kyiv does not, then there is no point pressing the issue... Why go through all that trouble to destroy infrastructure you need to rebuild later and pacify people who will resist. That is basically the mistake the US made with Baghdad. Shock and awe will allow you to conquer but it doesn't lead to a stable annexation like Crimea if the locals don't want you there.
Mariupol was in the way of their land bridge so it had to be destroyed no matter what.
Despite my gloomy outlook I'm rooting for Russia to be kicked out but I don't see a practical way for that to happen. My most optimistic self is crossing my fingers that we will wake up in a week and see the 36 BTGs in Kherson routed and swimming back across the Dnieper...
posted by xdvesper at 2:02 AM on August 30, 2022 [6 favorites]
If Kherson welcomes you then fine. If Kyiv does not, then there is no point pressing the issue... Why go through all that trouble to destroy infrastructure you need to rebuild later and pacify people who will resist. That is basically the mistake the US made with Baghdad. Shock and awe will allow you to conquer but it doesn't lead to a stable annexation like Crimea if the locals don't want you there.
Mariupol was in the way of their land bridge so it had to be destroyed no matter what.
Despite my gloomy outlook I'm rooting for Russia to be kicked out but I don't see a practical way for that to happen. My most optimistic self is crossing my fingers that we will wake up in a week and see the 36 BTGs in Kherson routed and swimming back across the Dnieper...
posted by xdvesper at 2:02 AM on August 30, 2022 [6 favorites]
My question is why hasn't Russia done a shock and awe on Kyiv
They wanted to capture Kyiv more or less intact, but with the government dead/driven off.
- The column of tanks? Stopped by artillery, ATGMs, mud, logistical failures and a bunch of Very Determined Ukrainians.
- Airborne troops? Managed to get stuck a bit outside Hostomel, forced to retreat by artillery, MANPADs, logistical failures and a bunch of Very Determined Ukrainians.
So that was Plan A in tatters.
Currently? To hit Kyiv's power and water treatment plants Russian planes would have to penetrate quite deep into Ukraine (it would be easier if Lukashenko allowed them to use Belarus airfields, but I guess he sees the way the war is going and has decided to at least not go there). That would be a near-suicidal mission, and it's pretty evident that Russian pilots are not quite that tired of life. They rarely venture into Ukrainian airspace at all; the only real option the Russians have are its cruise missiles, several of which have also been shot down before reaching their target. And for whatever reason they haven't been deployed in the waves seen in the Gulf wars.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:20 AM on August 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
They wanted to capture Kyiv more or less intact, but with the government dead/driven off.
- The column of tanks? Stopped by artillery, ATGMs, mud, logistical failures and a bunch of Very Determined Ukrainians.
- Airborne troops? Managed to get stuck a bit outside Hostomel, forced to retreat by artillery, MANPADs, logistical failures and a bunch of Very Determined Ukrainians.
So that was Plan A in tatters.
Currently? To hit Kyiv's power and water treatment plants Russian planes would have to penetrate quite deep into Ukraine (it would be easier if Lukashenko allowed them to use Belarus airfields, but I guess he sees the way the war is going and has decided to at least not go there). That would be a near-suicidal mission, and it's pretty evident that Russian pilots are not quite that tired of life. They rarely venture into Ukrainian airspace at all; the only real option the Russians have are its cruise missiles, several of which have also been shot down before reaching their target. And for whatever reason they haven't been deployed in the waves seen in the Gulf wars.
posted by Stoneshop at 2:20 AM on August 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
My question is why hasn't Russia done a shock and awe on Kyiv?
Russia has no pilots for its planes. Life in their military is so miserable that trained pilots leave as soon as they can, to take better jobs. Some of the pilots captured by Ukraine were 60 year old, high ranking officers.
The planes would be shot down anyway. Ukraine is able to shoot down many of the cruise missiles being sent toward it. Both the Russian and Ukrainian air forces have been force to mostly stay on the ground in this war. US anti radiation missiles being supplied to Ukraine may change that (once they figure out how to mount and fire NATO missiles from Warsaw Pact planes). Shock and awe requires air superiority. All the air defense radars and missile launchers need to be destroyed first. Then you send in the bombers. Russia doesn't have the technical capacity to do this.
posted by Bee'sWing at 3:34 AM on August 30, 2022 [8 favorites]
Russia has no pilots for its planes. Life in their military is so miserable that trained pilots leave as soon as they can, to take better jobs. Some of the pilots captured by Ukraine were 60 year old, high ranking officers.
The planes would be shot down anyway. Ukraine is able to shoot down many of the cruise missiles being sent toward it. Both the Russian and Ukrainian air forces have been force to mostly stay on the ground in this war. US anti radiation missiles being supplied to Ukraine may change that (once they figure out how to mount and fire NATO missiles from Warsaw Pact planes). Shock and awe requires air superiority. All the air defense radars and missile launchers need to be destroyed first. Then you send in the bombers. Russia doesn't have the technical capacity to do this.
posted by Bee'sWing at 3:34 AM on August 30, 2022 [8 favorites]
Bee'sWing: US anti radiation missiles being supplied to Ukraine may change that (once they figure out how to mount and fire NATO missiles from Warsaw Pact planes).
Wrong tense. They already have.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:43 AM on August 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
Wrong tense. They already have.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:43 AM on August 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
I’d like to see a photo of the HARM carrying MiGs, if this was done by transferring HTS pods that has some interesting implications.
Russia pulled planes from Sevastopol because they can’t protect them and can’t risk losing them on the ground. In Sevastopol. The home of the Black Sea Fleet. They’re not winning. They may have the land bridge but what happens when they lose the bridge bridge?
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:10 AM on August 30, 2022 [5 favorites]
Russia pulled planes from Sevastopol because they can’t protect them and can’t risk losing them on the ground. In Sevastopol. The home of the Black Sea Fleet. They’re not winning. They may have the land bridge but what happens when they lose the bridge bridge?
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:10 AM on August 30, 2022 [5 favorites]
As far as I can tell no one knows how they've managed to integrate the HARM missile with the MiGs.
You typically need the HTS pod installed to some hardpoint on the MiG (how?) with a datalink to the missile, and a datalink to a multi-function-display in the cockpit, and the ability to receive data in the cockpit and send firing instructions to the missile.... all this while the bus data architecture is incompatible. Sounds like months of work, if it can be done at all.
The most likely speculation I've read is that they're skipping the HTS pod integration by programming it on the ground and firing it in Pre-Briefed mode by linking the missile wirelessly to a tablet in the cockpit.
This is similar to how it was used in Desert Storm - you cover your strike package by preemptively lofting HARM missiles high in the air at long range (similar to the unguided rocket attacks both sides are using) and let them search for their own targets in loiter mode, this gives your strike aircraft a small window of opportunity to get in and out and punishes any radars that turn on.
posted by xdvesper at 5:44 AM on August 30, 2022 [4 favorites]
You typically need the HTS pod installed to some hardpoint on the MiG (how?) with a datalink to the missile, and a datalink to a multi-function-display in the cockpit, and the ability to receive data in the cockpit and send firing instructions to the missile.... all this while the bus data architecture is incompatible. Sounds like months of work, if it can be done at all.
The most likely speculation I've read is that they're skipping the HTS pod integration by programming it on the ground and firing it in Pre-Briefed mode by linking the missile wirelessly to a tablet in the cockpit.
This is similar to how it was used in Desert Storm - you cover your strike package by preemptively lofting HARM missiles high in the air at long range (similar to the unguided rocket attacks both sides are using) and let them search for their own targets in loiter mode, this gives your strike aircraft a small window of opportunity to get in and out and punishes any radars that turn on.
posted by xdvesper at 5:44 AM on August 30, 2022 [4 favorites]
Do the Ukrainian MiGs still have Soviet-era avionics, or have they been retrofitted with Western avionics? (IIRC, there are companies which specialise in this.)
posted by acb at 5:51 AM on August 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by acb at 5:51 AM on August 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
Sounds like months of work, if it can be done at all.
a length of cat6, a raspberry pi, a bunch of tape
posted by adept256 at 5:54 AM on August 30, 2022 [12 favorites]
a length of cat6, a raspberry pi, a bunch of tape
posted by adept256 at 5:54 AM on August 30, 2022 [12 favorites]
a length of cat6, a raspberry pi, a bunch of tape
I develop SW for vehicle mounted systems for a living, and I'm simultaneously thinking both "Hell, yes!" and "Hell, no!" to this suggestion.
posted by Harald74 at 6:04 AM on August 30, 2022 [27 favorites]
I develop SW for vehicle mounted systems for a living, and I'm simultaneously thinking both "Hell, yes!" and "Hell, no!" to this suggestion.
posted by Harald74 at 6:04 AM on August 30, 2022 [27 favorites]
You can see something in this video at around 50 seconds. Maybe.
posted by Bee'sWing at 6:05 AM on August 30, 2022
posted by Bee'sWing at 6:05 AM on August 30, 2022
a raspberry pi, a bunch of tape
and thou
posted by flabdablet at 6:09 AM on August 30, 2022 [38 favorites]
and thou
posted by flabdablet at 6:09 AM on August 30, 2022 [38 favorites]
In non war news a ship carrying wheat from Ukraine to the drought-stricken Horn of Africa docked on Tuesday, the United Nations said, the first to make the journey since the Russian invasion six months ago.
posted by adamvasco at 6:21 AM on August 30, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 6:21 AM on August 30, 2022 [13 favorites]
adept256: a length of cat6, a raspberry pi, a bunch of tape
Either this is pure nonsense because Pis have been unavailable to buy at retail for over a year, or....this is pure genius because it explains why Pis have been unavailable to buy at retail for over a year.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:30 AM on August 30, 2022 [22 favorites]
Either this is pure nonsense because Pis have been unavailable to buy at retail for over a year, or....this is pure genius because it explains why Pis have been unavailable to buy at retail for over a year.
posted by wenestvedt at 6:30 AM on August 30, 2022 [22 favorites]
Who's Zimbabwe going to attack? And how would that help Russia?
Ukraine. They would be supplying troops to backfill Russian losses.
Russia is reportedly trying to recruit troops from client states, to fill their own recruiting gaps. They already have "national"/ethnically segregated units provided by Chechens. I'm sure they would be trying this with Cuba or other places if they thought they could get away with it too.
The counteroffensive is happening now, imo, because this is where the Russian army is right now.
posted by bonehead at 6:49 AM on August 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
Ukraine. They would be supplying troops to backfill Russian losses.
Russia is reportedly trying to recruit troops from client states, to fill their own recruiting gaps. They already have "national"/ethnically segregated units provided by Chechens. I'm sure they would be trying this with Cuba or other places if they thought they could get away with it too.
The counteroffensive is happening now, imo, because this is where the Russian army is right now.
posted by bonehead at 6:49 AM on August 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
Kherson was a surprise, it was supposed to be the easiest city to defend against Russian attack - there are exactly three crossings at the Dnieper, all heavily embedded with explosives that would blow them up to prevent the Russian advance. It seems significant elements within Kherson welcomed Russian rule and instead let them into the city.
I'd like to throw out, that the people in Kherson, most of which very suddenly stopped posting to forums I visit, were very much not pleased when their administration lead the Russians in on the back roads.
It seems like Kherson may have been the only major Ukrainian city the Russians actually remembered to bribe the administration of. God, I hope those nerds are still alive.
posted by pan at 6:53 AM on August 30, 2022 [15 favorites]
I'd like to throw out, that the people in Kherson, most of which very suddenly stopped posting to forums I visit, were very much not pleased when their administration lead the Russians in on the back roads.
It seems like Kherson may have been the only major Ukrainian city the Russians actually remembered to bribe the administration of. God, I hope those nerds are still alive.
posted by pan at 6:53 AM on August 30, 2022 [15 favorites]
As I said, Russia isn't going to win militarily. Their only hopes are to win politically by disrupting Western support of Ukraine
This is what's behind the talk of "horizontalizing" the war. There's a twisted logic that if Russia pushes the boundaries further, provokes a bit more, threatens to turn this into a broader war, then the NATO-backers of Ukraine may say "enough!" and this new counter-offensive is stopped before it can begin.
Ukraine is dependent on its allies. If NATO, lead by the US and the UK, say stop, Ukraine, unfortunately doesn't have many options. Russia has a route to keep what they've taken, to force a stop, if they can break NATO's resolve. The risk to us, to Ukraine is that the Russian command make this their next strategy. We, NATO and Ukraine, need have plans in place to react to "horizontalization" or an expanded threat.
So that Ukraine has a clear road to send the Russians packing. That's why this is important.
posted by bonehead at 7:00 AM on August 30, 2022 [4 favorites]
This is what's behind the talk of "horizontalizing" the war. There's a twisted logic that if Russia pushes the boundaries further, provokes a bit more, threatens to turn this into a broader war, then the NATO-backers of Ukraine may say "enough!" and this new counter-offensive is stopped before it can begin.
Ukraine is dependent on its allies. If NATO, lead by the US and the UK, say stop, Ukraine, unfortunately doesn't have many options. Russia has a route to keep what they've taken, to force a stop, if they can break NATO's resolve. The risk to us, to Ukraine is that the Russian command make this their next strategy. We, NATO and Ukraine, need have plans in place to react to "horizontalization" or an expanded threat.
So that Ukraine has a clear road to send the Russians packing. That's why this is important.
posted by bonehead at 7:00 AM on August 30, 2022 [4 favorites]
acb: Do the Ukrainian MiGs still have Soviet-era avionics, or have they been retrofitted with Western avionics?
At least the Polish and Bulgarian air forces still fly MIG-29, which have been upgraded to NATO standards. This could well include the capability to carry HARM, in which case fitting a few Ukrainian MIG-29 with the required kit would now be more or less "here are the parts, here are the tools, here's the manual".
posted by Stoneshop at 7:09 AM on August 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
At least the Polish and Bulgarian air forces still fly MIG-29, which have been upgraded to NATO standards. This could well include the capability to carry HARM, in which case fitting a few Ukrainian MIG-29 with the required kit would now be more or less "here are the parts, here are the tools, here's the manual".
posted by Stoneshop at 7:09 AM on August 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
The most likely speculation I've read is that they're skipping the HTS pod integration by programming it on the ground and firing it in Pre-Briefed mode by linking the missile wirelessly to a tablet in the cockpit.
This was my immediate thought. Don't use pre-2000 tech. Go COTS or semi-COTS and do it wirelessly. It's not as robust as wired, and could be jammed, but most importantly it will Work Right Now and that's what matters most.
posted by bonehead at 7:10 AM on August 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
This was my immediate thought. Don't use pre-2000 tech. Go COTS or semi-COTS and do it wirelessly. It's not as robust as wired, and could be jammed, but most importantly it will Work Right Now and that's what matters most.
posted by bonehead at 7:10 AM on August 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
Meanwhile, about all those HIMARS batteries Russia claims to have destroyed...
posted by acb at 7:44 AM on August 30, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by acb at 7:44 AM on August 30, 2022 [10 favorites]
Putin hasn't formally declared war or called for general mobilization because he fears the domestic political consequences of doing so.
America hasn't formally declared war since 1941, so there's that.
I read a lot of about what is going on in the mind of Putin, his aims, strategies, fears, his imagining he is a reincarnation of Peter the Great. Makes entertaining copy, but is it true? Same with SitRep on the the ground, how much is real, how much clickbait and propaganda? Read history at all widely and you quickly discover that for every set of agreed upon facts (and we're nowhere near that point regarding 2022 Ukraine), there are any number of explanations.
What next? Answer uncertain, ask again later. A lot of people with noble and ignoble ambitions are in positions to improve the situation or make it worse. Vanity, greed, fear, inflexibility, unreason, and stupidity all play a role. Coup d'etat at the top is possible. But then, so is mass refusal by soldiers to obey orders because they think the war hopeless. Wouldn't be the first time.
I find nothing from Officialdom or their mouthpieces on what kind of post war arrangements, if any, they are planning for.
A Former US Marine Corps Officer's Analysis of the Ukraine War makes for interesting reading.
posted by BWA at 9:07 AM on August 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
America hasn't formally declared war since 1941, so there's that.
I read a lot of about what is going on in the mind of Putin, his aims, strategies, fears, his imagining he is a reincarnation of Peter the Great. Makes entertaining copy, but is it true? Same with SitRep on the the ground, how much is real, how much clickbait and propaganda? Read history at all widely and you quickly discover that for every set of agreed upon facts (and we're nowhere near that point regarding 2022 Ukraine), there are any number of explanations.
What next? Answer uncertain, ask again later. A lot of people with noble and ignoble ambitions are in positions to improve the situation or make it worse. Vanity, greed, fear, inflexibility, unreason, and stupidity all play a role. Coup d'etat at the top is possible. But then, so is mass refusal by soldiers to obey orders because they think the war hopeless. Wouldn't be the first time.
I find nothing from Officialdom or their mouthpieces on what kind of post war arrangements, if any, they are planning for.
A Former US Marine Corps Officer's Analysis of the Ukraine War makes for interesting reading.
posted by BWA at 9:07 AM on August 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'm really not sure what to think of that piece. It makes a lot of internal sense, and is really effective at creating a grand narrative around Russian strategy that makes the last six months seem much more purposeful than what we've seen so far. In short: the campaign in the north was a diversion that pinned Ukranian forces while eastern Russian forces built up artillery for their long, slow cauldron battle to completely occupy the Donbass; meanwhile, the southern campaign aimed at rapid occupation and transformation of the heavily Russian populated south. The rest of Ukraine is mostly Ukrainian, and so the northern raid on Kyiv was eventually withdrawn because they don't want to keep that; they do want to keep Kherson and the land bridge to Crimea and make them officially Russian, since they're already mostly ethnically Russian.
What that narrative doesn't account for is the absurd losses they've sustained, especially in the northern campaign, where a large portion of their tier 1 forces were destroyed. If it was a "reyd" (Russian version of "raid"), you don't sustain such losses in an extended engagement; your purpose is much better served by withdrawing in good order and raiding somewhere else. The RA is undoubtedly much weaker now for the loss of so much equipment and experienced personnel and coherent units, and they seem likely to lose in the southern theater as well, in part just because the overwhelming start of the invasion galvanized western support.
So I'm not sure how to take Marinus' essay. It seems a little too 'just so' without addressing the high losses, the lack of progress in the east, and the apparent weakness of their southern occupation.
posted by fatbird at 9:41 AM on August 30, 2022 [17 favorites]
What that narrative doesn't account for is the absurd losses they've sustained, especially in the northern campaign, where a large portion of their tier 1 forces were destroyed. If it was a "reyd" (Russian version of "raid"), you don't sustain such losses in an extended engagement; your purpose is much better served by withdrawing in good order and raiding somewhere else. The RA is undoubtedly much weaker now for the loss of so much equipment and experienced personnel and coherent units, and they seem likely to lose in the southern theater as well, in part just because the overwhelming start of the invasion galvanized western support.
So I'm not sure how to take Marinus' essay. It seems a little too 'just so' without addressing the high losses, the lack of progress in the east, and the apparent weakness of their southern occupation.
posted by fatbird at 9:41 AM on August 30, 2022 [17 favorites]
At least in the near term, a revolt or a general strike in the armed services seems more likely than a palace coup or nationwide disorder. Putin has arranged his whole government around preventing a coup, even though it dramatically weakened his military. And a grade A KGB disinformation campaign has made the population apathetic and apolitical.
posted by Bee'sWing at 9:42 AM on August 30, 2022
posted by Bee'sWing at 9:42 AM on August 30, 2022
We have freedom of the press, but our newspapers are giving away secrets of the Ukrainian strategy. Bummer.
posted by Oyéah at 10:02 AM on August 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Oyéah at 10:02 AM on August 30, 2022 [1 favorite]
BWA The article William Schryver re-posted and claims was written by a Former Marine Corps Officer is full of demonstrably false statements that seem like little more than echos of Russian propaganda. For example the author makes this extraordinary claim:
He's now echoing Russian state media claims that the Ukrainian attacks in Kherson have been nothing more than a massacre for Ukrainian soldiers.
posted by interogative mood at 10:18 AM on August 30, 2022 [22 favorites]
The Russian program of guided missile strikes, conducted in parallel to the three ground campaigns, created a number of moral effects favorable to the Russian war effort. The most important of these resulted from the avoidance of collateral damage that resulted, not only from the extraordinary precision of the weapons used, but also from the judicious choice of targets. Thus, Russia’s enemies found it hard to characterize strikes against fuel and ammunition depots, which were necessarily located at some distance from places where civilians lived and worked, as anything other than attacks on military installations.Evidence to the contrary is overwhelming. The UN OHCHR said in March of this year (long before this author wrote this nonsense)
"Civilians are being killed and maimed in what appear to be indiscriminate attacks, with Russian forces using explosive weapons with wide area effects in or near populated areas,” said OHCHR spokesperson Liz Throssell, speaking in Geneva. “These include missiles, heavy artillery shells and rockets, as well as airstrikes.”Mr Schryver's twitter posts reflect an extraordinary detachment with reality. Claims like "Russia has now incontrovertibly demonstrated a reliable capability to intercept a large percentage of advanced missiles and rockets.".
He's now echoing Russian state media claims that the Ukrainian attacks in Kherson have been nothing more than a massacre for Ukrainian soldiers.
posted by interogative mood at 10:18 AM on August 30, 2022 [22 favorites]
I think any analysis that pretends that the strike on Kyiv was anything but a massive failure is being very creative in their imagination. From a strategic standpoint capturing the capital of your opponent and controlling the government apparatus means you've more or less won. Yes, you'll have to deal with partisans and resistance, but it's infinitely better to present the world with a morale shattering fait accompli massive victory then throw a clown car mess of tangled logistics poor planning and insufficient preparations for combat and pretend all those losses somehow was part of your master plan.
The Ukrainians prepared quite well for the assault in their north, moving important resources and troops into protected positions and fought a brilliant defense that happened to be significantly aided by Russia's own failures. Russia in some senses has the equipment to be an A grade army, but the first month of the war revealed their massive failures in training, leadership, supplies, planning, strategy tactics and morale. Corruption is apparently endemic in the military which also knocked their plan apart. Russia has repeatedly failed their goals in this unjustified invasion and then attempted to claim that it was part of their plan all along. If you take the capital, it drastically lessens the chance you need to make a grinding slog through the east.
No, Russia is sinking to the level of its competence. Russia is fighting exactly like this is world war II... Artillery is easy enough to fire if you don't particularly care about aiming well, and the Russians don't. Their plan ar this point it's too bombard every single thing in their way into rubble and claim the ruins as a victory. This is war crime as a strategy, their only real plan. The opponent can't fight if you destroy all the civilian infrastructure that supports basic life functions. And there's tons and tons and tons of reports of Russia bombing civilian buildings and non-military targets. Also murdering prisoners of war. It's all war crimes all the way down, including occasionally at their own conscripts and cannon fodder troops.
The civilian toll of this war is going to be atrocious because Russia has no qualms about murdering every single person in their path.
posted by Jacen at 10:35 AM on August 30, 2022 [20 favorites]
The Ukrainians prepared quite well for the assault in their north, moving important resources and troops into protected positions and fought a brilliant defense that happened to be significantly aided by Russia's own failures. Russia in some senses has the equipment to be an A grade army, but the first month of the war revealed their massive failures in training, leadership, supplies, planning, strategy tactics and morale. Corruption is apparently endemic in the military which also knocked their plan apart. Russia has repeatedly failed their goals in this unjustified invasion and then attempted to claim that it was part of their plan all along. If you take the capital, it drastically lessens the chance you need to make a grinding slog through the east.
No, Russia is sinking to the level of its competence. Russia is fighting exactly like this is world war II... Artillery is easy enough to fire if you don't particularly care about aiming well, and the Russians don't. Their plan ar this point it's too bombard every single thing in their way into rubble and claim the ruins as a victory. This is war crime as a strategy, their only real plan. The opponent can't fight if you destroy all the civilian infrastructure that supports basic life functions. And there's tons and tons and tons of reports of Russia bombing civilian buildings and non-military targets. Also murdering prisoners of war. It's all war crimes all the way down, including occasionally at their own conscripts and cannon fodder troops.
The civilian toll of this war is going to be atrocious because Russia has no qualms about murdering every single person in their path.
posted by Jacen at 10:35 AM on August 30, 2022 [20 favorites]
We have freedom of the press, but our newspapers are giving away secrets of the Ukrainian strategy
Indeed, our newspapers have redundantly revealed the secrets of Ukranian strategy. The attack on Kherson is a major offensive. The attack on Kherson aims only to seize better artillery firing positions. The attack on Kherson is a feint with the real attack to be launched in the east. Etc. The chaff cloud of conflicting plausible theories is a credit to Ukrainian government media strategy.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 10:35 AM on August 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
Indeed, our newspapers have redundantly revealed the secrets of Ukranian strategy. The attack on Kherson is a major offensive. The attack on Kherson aims only to seize better artillery firing positions. The attack on Kherson is a feint with the real attack to be launched in the east. Etc. The chaff cloud of conflicting plausible theories is a credit to Ukrainian government media strategy.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 10:35 AM on August 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
The Kherson region's north of the Dnipro occupied by Russia seems to have two geographic regions divided by the Inhulets river. Highway R81 follows the river down towards the city of Kherson on the western side. The eastern side is more rural and bordered to the south by the Kakhovka reservoir held back by the dam/bridge at Nova Khakova. Russia has stationed a large number of soldiers in this eastern region as part of their attempts to move north towards the city of Kryvyi Rih and Nikopol. Russia had hoped to capture those cities and thus surround the whole of the reservoir. Those soldiers are now the most isolated in the Russian army. The bridges across the Inhulets and Dnipro are damaged to the point of not being able to support heavy trucks. Explosions have been reported on the areas where pontoon bridges were under construction and ferry operations were underway. Looking at NASA FIRMS imagery from before the 28th and since then shows a lot of new fires in the north eastern most section of the front. The area north of the reservoir shows a lot of new fire activity and deep into areas of Russian occupation according to the ISW Map.
posted by interogative mood at 11:06 AM on August 30, 2022
posted by interogative mood at 11:06 AM on August 30, 2022
Ok, I've read the article posted by Schryver, and a couple more by the man himself. First, I think Occam's razor rather shreds the article... It's a lot of What If Russia Was Good, instead of the much more accurate looking what if Russia is well armed but pretty incompetent.
Second, Schryver himself seems absurdly pro-Russian, to the point his claims seem entirely illogical. He thinks the six months of grinding war have been a massive victory for Russia, and a blow to Imperial United States of America, world conqueror. He's also dinged Ukraine for apparently using civilians as shields...(!!!!!) That's just.... The invaders of a country don't get to blame casualties on the people they are invading. Especially not Russia. No.
posted by Jacen at 11:34 AM on August 30, 2022 [20 favorites]
Second, Schryver himself seems absurdly pro-Russian, to the point his claims seem entirely illogical. He thinks the six months of grinding war have been a massive victory for Russia, and a blow to Imperial United States of America, world conqueror. He's also dinged Ukraine for apparently using civilians as shields...(!!!!!) That's just.... The invaders of a country don't get to blame casualties on the people they are invading. Especially not Russia. No.
posted by Jacen at 11:34 AM on August 30, 2022 [20 favorites]
The guy who copied Marinus' essay that apparently ran in the Marine Corps Gazette is a very pro-Russian American who thinks the invasion really does have the purpose of destroying the Ukranian army, which is really a NATO proxy army:
Part of the reason that I feel my interpretations are stronger is that I feel they're sourced in multiple different ways that agree with each other. You have Ukrainian, American, and British gov't pronouncements; you have a wide variety of OSINT people; you have NGO reports. I don't regard any of them as particularly credible (except OSINT efforts like the one cataloguing destroyed Russian tanks from hard evidence), but collectively they seem to be living in the sunshine. I could certainly be wrong or just suckered by all this. But I'll take that over breathless pronunciations of "this was the plan all along!" post hoc rationalizations.
posted by fatbird at 11:40 AM on August 30, 2022 [10 favorites]
The Ukrainian military was purpose-built to serve the interests of the American Empire in its long-established goal to cripple Russia and prevent it from ever again being able to wield global influence; to effect its ultimate dismemberment and reduce it to a faint fragment of its former status and glory – to realize the geopolitical objective expressed in the popular cold-war-era board game RISK, which erased Russia from the world map.... The forces in Mariupol also included many dozens of NATO “advisors” (CIA, special forces, and so-called “contractors”). Also present were ~2500 foreign mercenaries, most of them NATO veterans of the wars in Iraq and Afghanistan.He's getting very different information that I am, and relying on very different estimations of casualties and capabilities, so I don't think I'm going to worry much about his views.
Part of the reason that I feel my interpretations are stronger is that I feel they're sourced in multiple different ways that agree with each other. You have Ukrainian, American, and British gov't pronouncements; you have a wide variety of OSINT people; you have NGO reports. I don't regard any of them as particularly credible (except OSINT efforts like the one cataloguing destroyed Russian tanks from hard evidence), but collectively they seem to be living in the sunshine. I could certainly be wrong or just suckered by all this. But I'll take that over breathless pronunciations of "this was the plan all along!" post hoc rationalizations.
posted by fatbird at 11:40 AM on August 30, 2022 [10 favorites]
The most likely speculation I've read is that they're skipping the HTS pod integration by programming it on the ground and firing it in Pre-Briefed mode by linking the missile wirelessly to a tablet in the cockpit.
This is what I was thinking to; basically home on jam or fixed coordinates, only.
But—if, somehow, more than that, and there's a way to graft actual HTS onto MiGs, even if that means some really ungainly additions to the cockpit, like a standalone, hardwired MFD....then what else?
LANTIRN, with everything that brings? Or....JDAMs?
If these things are doable, then the potential effects are hard to overestimate.
This is full-on Dale Brown shit, but....yeah. It sound nuts until you're reading about it in a bone-dry powerpoint ten years later. And the point about arduinos and r-pis and etc is well taken; there are a lot of powerful expedients available that were fantasyland twenty years ago.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:45 PM on August 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
This is what I was thinking to; basically home on jam or fixed coordinates, only.
But—if, somehow, more than that, and there's a way to graft actual HTS onto MiGs, even if that means some really ungainly additions to the cockpit, like a standalone, hardwired MFD....then what else?
LANTIRN, with everything that brings? Or....JDAMs?
If these things are doable, then the potential effects are hard to overestimate.
This is full-on Dale Brown shit, but....yeah. It sound nuts until you're reading about it in a bone-dry powerpoint ten years later. And the point about arduinos and r-pis and etc is well taken; there are a lot of powerful expedients available that were fantasyland twenty years ago.
posted by snuffleupagus at 5:45 PM on August 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
Report: Drunk Russian soldiers in Kherson fired assault rifles at FSB officers in deadly incident
posted by Kabanos at 6:29 PM on August 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Kabanos at 6:29 PM on August 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
Ukrainian makers, software developers, and hackers are very talented. After the war we’ll probably find out it was a couple of guys with a mig welder, an angle grinder, 3d printer, raspberry pi and some home
made cable made out of old speaker wire.
posted by interogative mood at 6:33 PM on August 30, 2022 [9 favorites]
made cable made out of old speaker wire.
posted by interogative mood at 6:33 PM on August 30, 2022 [9 favorites]
Re: Avoiding NATO-on-Russia combat, whether in the Bosphorus or in a No-Fly Zone;
Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan has pointed out that:
For the Russians, this war was always one of existential security concerns i.e. Plug the gaps though which enemies (Mongols, Napoleon, The Nazis, etc) have historically attacked Russia. Has happened 50 some odd times in Russia’s history. The Soviet Union controlled all 9, post-Soviet “rump Russia” controlss 3 after taking Crimea. Once the attacker gets through one of those gaps, the territory is open, flat, and so underpopulated that it can’t be defended. And Russia had to do it now, before the coming demographic collapse which they are facing decimates their ability to field an army big enough to stop the next invasion.
The war so far has shown that if Russia can’t stand up to Ukraine supported by the West, the full force of NATO would wipe the floor with the Russians. Russia can’t do logistics, can’t do combined arms, might not even have a word for “air superiority”. There is no scenario where Russia’s army goes toe to toe with NATO and doesn’t get rag-dolled worse than the Iraqi army did in Desert Storm.
Fighting NATO directly and losing leaves Russia 2 options: a humiliating strategic retreat from which Russia will likely never recover, or… escalate to tactical, or even strategic Nuclear weapons.
This is not just Putin’s war. However it started, there is now a significant level of support for the war in Russia. If anything, folks like Alexander Dugin think Putin is being insufficiently autocratic in prosecuting what they see as a Holy War for Russia’s destiny. And if they are faced with a situation where Russia is ground down underfoot to a level they haven’t seen since the days of the Golden Horde, who’s to say they won’t burn it all down?
There are VERY COMPELLING REASONS to avoid bringing out the NATO sledge hammer against the Russian walnut, and instead sending every nutcracker we can summon dancing over to Ukraine.
Just because we in the west can’t imagine doing something crazy doesn’t mean that the Kremlin can’t imagine it. As journalist Julia Ioffe put it, “Russia is where Occam’s Razor goes to die.”
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 6:36 PM on August 30, 2022 [7 favorites]
Geopolitical Strategist Peter Zeihan has pointed out that:
Fighting NATO directly and losing leaves Russia 2 options: a humiliating strategic retreat from which Russia will likely never recover, or… escalate to tactical, or even strategic Nuclear weapons.
This is not just Putin’s war. However it started, there is now a significant level of support for the war in Russia. If anything, folks like Alexander Dugin think Putin is being insufficiently autocratic in prosecuting what they see as a Holy War for Russia’s destiny. And if they are faced with a situation where Russia is ground down underfoot to a level they haven’t seen since the days of the Golden Horde, who’s to say they won’t burn it all down?
There are VERY COMPELLING REASONS to avoid bringing out the NATO sledge hammer against the Russian walnut, and instead sending every nutcracker we can summon dancing over to Ukraine.
Just because we in the west can’t imagine doing something crazy doesn’t mean that the Kremlin can’t imagine it. As journalist Julia Ioffe put it, “Russia is where Occam’s Razor goes to die.”
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 6:36 PM on August 30, 2022 [7 favorites]
Report: Drunk Russian soldiers in Kherson fired assault rifles at FSB officers in deadly incident
Note that's about an incident from two months ago, and not (necessarily) related to reports of gunfire in Kherson today.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:42 PM on August 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
a humiliating strategic retreat from which Russia will likely never recoverThis seems unlikely to me. They would recover. It may take a couple decades or whatever, but "Russia will likely never recover" is a very strong statement. Honestly, it seems at least possible to me that recovery after humiliating strategic defeat might be one of the best possible results of this war for Russia (or at least for Russians), a la West Germany or Japan.
if they are faced with a situation where Russia is ground down underfoot to a level they haven’t seen since the days of the Golden HordeNobody's going to be demanding vassalage.
I agree insofar as I wouldn't rule out Putin (or some post-Putin) going all-out crazy if they feel like Russia itself (or, more directly, they themselves) are in actual existential peril, and I therefore agree that we (NATO etc.) should try to step carefully to avoid bringing about such a feeling (as, I think, we have thus far been doing). But I also think that Putin is probably not eager to bring about direct NATO involvement in the first place, all his yapping aside.
posted by Flunkie at 7:52 PM on August 30, 2022 [4 favorites]
Russia is in a bad spot right now for a number of reasons.
Articles like this are easy to find: Russia Doesn’t Have the Demographics for War (FP).
Putin may have had no choice but to go to war now, as any future efforts would have been in a worse position, demographically, economically, than last January.
Russia has been in a demographic crisis for decades and in a severe one for the last five. Russia's population, even prior to the invasion, was shrinking year on year. Death due to alcoholism, poor healthcare, emigration has meant the number of military age men was falling faster than the general population. The economy, following population decline, was shrinking in real terms, even before sanctions, and the SWIFT freezing and the oil blockades.
There's good reason to believe that Russia may not be able to recover from this. It hasn't recovered from the fall of communism. This may simply accelerate an already rapid decline.
posted by bonehead at 8:12 PM on August 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
Articles like this are easy to find: Russia Doesn’t Have the Demographics for War (FP).
Putin may have had no choice but to go to war now, as any future efforts would have been in a worse position, demographically, economically, than last January.
Russia has been in a demographic crisis for decades and in a severe one for the last five. Russia's population, even prior to the invasion, was shrinking year on year. Death due to alcoholism, poor healthcare, emigration has meant the number of military age men was falling faster than the general population. The economy, following population decline, was shrinking in real terms, even before sanctions, and the SWIFT freezing and the oil blockades.
There's good reason to believe that Russia may not be able to recover from this. It hasn't recovered from the fall of communism. This may simply accelerate an already rapid decline.
posted by bonehead at 8:12 PM on August 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
Well, demographics about Russia is interesting. Just remember they have 1-2 millions of women and children in camps, from Ukraine. And children being adopted by Russians. I leave the rest to your imagination.
posted by baegucb at 8:36 PM on August 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by baegucb at 8:36 PM on August 30, 2022 [3 favorites]
There's good reason to believe that Russia may not be able to recover from this.OK. I guess I might not understand what you envision "Russia not recovering" to mean.
posted by Flunkie at 9:03 PM on August 30, 2022 [2 favorites]
Mod note: A couple deleted ... Defending Putin / Russia with arguments that twist the actual content of comments or linked articles. (ie: a response to "Russia's low birthrate is (among other demographic issues) a problem for Putin" being "Ukraine has a lower birthrate" (etc., etc.) — um, Ukraine isn't the country invading other countries? "Filtration camps are not concentration camps"; just the word "camps" was used, and this kind of seemingly rehearsed response isn't on.
posted by taz (staff) at 11:02 PM on August 30, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 11:02 PM on August 30, 2022 [9 favorites]
Russian Jews are continuing to flee to Israel in volumes not seen since the early 90s when the USSR fell. About 600 thousand Russians are estimated to be eligible for Israeli passports. This year 30 thousand previous dual passport owners have rushed emigration, 21 thousand have filed and emigrated, and several dozen thousands more have come on tourist visas to file in Israel or scout out emigration possibility, where usually it was a trickle of 10 thousand passports per year. Russian authorities have filed to declare the Jewish Agency in Russia an illegal foreign agent to stop the brain drain.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:08 AM on August 31, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:08 AM on August 31, 2022 [9 favorites]
Retired general Mick Ryan on the on-going offensive: The situation with the Ukrainian #offensive in the south remains unclear. That said, we know enough about both sides - and from the history of such operations - to propose a few areas that are likely to determine success or failure in the coming weeks. 1/23
posted by Harald74 at 2:14 AM on August 31, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 2:14 AM on August 31, 2022
snuffleupagus: But—if, somehow, more than that, and there's a way to graft actual HTS onto MiGs, even if that means some really ungainly additions to the cockpit, like a standalone, hardwired MFD....then what else?
From an article in the NY Times:
From an article in the NY Times:
A senior Pentagon official said Ukrainian forces had put American-supplied HARM anti-radiation missiles on Soviet-designed MiG-29 fighter jets — something that no air force had ever done. The American HARM missile, designed to seek and destroy Russian air defense radar, is not usually compatible with the MiG-29 or the other fighter jets in Ukraine’s arsenal.And a but further down:
Ukraine managed to rejigger targeting sensors to allow pilots to fire the American missile from their Soviet-era aircraft. “They have actually successfully integrated it,” the senior official told reporters during a Pentagon briefing. He spoke on the condition of anonymity per Biden administration rules.
American military commanders who have worked with Ukrainian troops say that the Ukrainians are always ready to improvise.posted by Stoneshop at 3:58 AM on August 31, 2022 [9 favorites]
General Hodges said he noticed “on a tactical level how clever Ukrainians were” when he worked with them in 2013 and 2014. He said the adaptation of the American-supplied HARM missiles to work on MiGs demonstrated the depth of technological know-how in Ukraine’s military.
“You can’t just hang any kind of rocket off of any kind of plane — there’s a whole lot of avionics and other aspects of flying and high-performance aircraft that are involved here,” he said. “And they did it.”
No update from ISW yesterday. Understandable, as their daily product was largely unchanged for a couple months as the lines stabilized and Ukraine prepared deliberately and publicly for Kherson.They must be frantically scouring their sources -- many of whom may have gone dark after the Ukraine government demanded a social media blackout during the Kherson attack.
Waiting with baited breath for concrete news of the offensive. Having to attack with zero element of surprise is not ideal, but here we are. Slava Ukrani!
posted by Sauce Trough at 4:30 AM on August 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Waiting with baited breath for concrete news of the offensive. Having to attack with zero element of surprise is not ideal, but here we are. Slava Ukrani!
posted by Sauce Trough at 4:30 AM on August 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Heroyam slava!
Having to attack with zero element of surprise is not ideal, but here we are
But isn't this probably the future of large-scale warfare? With the amount of sensors out there, seems like you can't even take a leak behind your tank without it ending up on social media. How is anyone going to mass armour, artillery and infantry for a surprise attack in the age of drones, RC-135s, millimeter wave radar and infrared satellites and so on?
posted by Harald74 at 5:11 AM on August 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
Having to attack with zero element of surprise is not ideal, but here we are
But isn't this probably the future of large-scale warfare? With the amount of sensors out there, seems like you can't even take a leak behind your tank without it ending up on social media. How is anyone going to mass armour, artillery and infantry for a surprise attack in the age of drones, RC-135s, millimeter wave radar and infrared satellites and so on?
posted by Harald74 at 5:11 AM on August 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
Isw did publish the report for the 30th. It includes several points that says they think the counter attack is real and progressing.
posted by Jacen at 6:13 AM on August 31, 2022
posted by Jacen at 6:13 AM on August 31, 2022
I think the announced-strategy part of this is fascinating. Many point out that Ukraine wants to draw as many Russian forces into a difficult to supply and defend position as possible, maximizing the advantage they have vs fighting those forces elsewhere. They may force a substantial number to surrender or retreat abandoning their equipment since withdrawal options are so limited. However, it's difficult not to pick up "WE ARE GOING TO ATTACK HERE. RIGHT HERE. I PROMISE. GO AHEAD AND MOVE YOUR FORCES FROM ELSEWHERE." as something the Russians have to scratch their heads about.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 6:57 AM on August 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by a robot made out of meat at 6:57 AM on August 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
Yeah, I saw the Aug 30 ISW report. I think it dropped right after I posted.
posted by Sauce Trough at 7:05 AM on August 31, 2022
posted by Sauce Trough at 7:05 AM on August 31, 2022
It occurs to me that Russian milbloggers must follow Ukrainian sources as well as Russian, which feeds back into the information loop for the Russians. Months of fairly straightforward reporting on progress (or lack), followed by a widescale blackout because something is happening must be pretty psychologically unbalancing to those who've gotten used to continually ingesting all the data and producing an outlook based on it.
posted by fatbird at 8:03 AM on August 31, 2022
posted by fatbird at 8:03 AM on August 31, 2022
OK. I guess I might not understand what you envision "Russia not recovering" to mean.
posted by Flunkie
Russia ceasing to exist as a coherent nation state.
The process that began with the collapse of the Soviet Union (and which has been on pause during the “Rump Russia” era) kicks back in and what’s left of Russia falls apart and breaks up.
Then what territory they are left defending is undefendable because it is open, flat, and most of it is borderline unpopulated, so that they are left open to invasion like has happened over and over in their history
This is what scholars of Russia have described as their “existential fear”. And military analyists have pointed out that Russian political as well as military doctrine dictates that if they are faced with such an existential threat, that tactical nukes are then on the table as a method of stopping it.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 8:15 AM on August 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Flunkie
Russia ceasing to exist as a coherent nation state.
The process that began with the collapse of the Soviet Union (and which has been on pause during the “Rump Russia” era) kicks back in and what’s left of Russia falls apart and breaks up.
Then what territory they are left defending is undefendable because it is open, flat, and most of it is borderline unpopulated, so that they are left open to invasion like has happened over and over in their history
This is what scholars of Russia have described as their “existential fear”. And military analyists have pointed out that Russian political as well as military doctrine dictates that if they are faced with such an existential threat, that tactical nukes are then on the table as a method of stopping it.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 8:15 AM on August 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Classically old strategy: Ukraine is using a ghost army of fake HIMARS to trick Russian artillery
posted by meowzilla at 8:17 AM on August 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by meowzilla at 8:17 AM on August 31, 2022 [5 favorites]
The process that began with the collapse of the Soviet Union (and which has been on pause during the “Rump Russia” era) kicks back in and what’s left of Russia falls apart and breaks up.
Russia has been invading, occupying, and annexing other sovereign nations for over 700 years. I wouldn't mind seeing each and every one of them free once again and Russia reduced back to The Grand Duchy of Moscow circa 1300 CE.
posted by mikelieman at 8:44 AM on August 31, 2022 [7 favorites]
Russia has been invading, occupying, and annexing other sovereign nations for over 700 years. I wouldn't mind seeing each and every one of them free once again and Russia reduced back to The Grand Duchy of Moscow circa 1300 CE.
posted by mikelieman at 8:44 AM on August 31, 2022 [7 favorites]
Russian authorities have filed to declare the Jewish Agency in Russia an illegal foreign agent to stop the brain drain.
Not only are the Western educated and technically savvy Russians fleeing, the Soviet Education system collapsed in the 1991, and stopped turning out educated and technically savvy Russians in significant numbers.
The last generation of Soviet educated technocrats are in their late 50s by this point, and there is no one coming up to take their place. This is why Russia needs western companies like Halliburton etc to operate their gas & oil operations; there isn’t a cadre of domestic talent capable of doing it.
Russia is burning off $10M worth of natural gas every day because the storage facilities are full, and the pipelines are full, but not flowing because of sanctions. Environmentally, it’s a catastrophe.
They have burn off the gas that keeps being pumped up, because the other option is to plug and cap the oil wells. And then it would take a decade or more to bring them back online after doing that. It’s not just as simple as turning off a valve.
And then Russia is left without oil to sell, an economy to weak to reinvest in starting up the oil fields again after plugging them, and not enough people with the know-how to pull it off.
Brain drain is a HUGE problem for them. You want educated 30 year olds today, you have to start 30 years ago.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 9:42 AM on August 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
Not only are the Western educated and technically savvy Russians fleeing, the Soviet Education system collapsed in the 1991, and stopped turning out educated and technically savvy Russians in significant numbers.
The last generation of Soviet educated technocrats are in their late 50s by this point, and there is no one coming up to take their place. This is why Russia needs western companies like Halliburton etc to operate their gas & oil operations; there isn’t a cadre of domestic talent capable of doing it.
Russia is burning off $10M worth of natural gas every day because the storage facilities are full, and the pipelines are full, but not flowing because of sanctions. Environmentally, it’s a catastrophe.
They have burn off the gas that keeps being pumped up, because the other option is to plug and cap the oil wells. And then it would take a decade or more to bring them back online after doing that. It’s not just as simple as turning off a valve.
And then Russia is left without oil to sell, an economy to weak to reinvest in starting up the oil fields again after plugging them, and not enough people with the know-how to pull it off.
Brain drain is a HUGE problem for them. You want educated 30 year olds today, you have to start 30 years ago.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 9:42 AM on August 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
UKR Pravda: Russian forces lose 350 soldiers and 20 tanks in one day – General Staff report
Curiously it notes:
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:03 AM on August 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Curiously it notes:
The General Staff noted that Russian troops had suffered their heaviest losses on the Donetsk and Kurakhove fronts.(I.e., the eastern front.)
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:03 AM on August 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
It's a delicious idea that all the "brace yourself for the Kherson counterattack!" was a successful ploy to draw Russian forces there to defend, only for the real offensive to be in the Donbass.
posted by fatbird at 10:20 AM on August 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by fatbird at 10:20 AM on August 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ukraine update: Tens of thousands of Russians cut off in Kherson, their artillery dwindling
Daily Kos guy argues that Ukraine is trying to capture Nova Kakhovka to block resupply of Kherson and stop water flow to Crimea. If true, this means no huge fight for Kherson city just yet.
posted by ryanrs at 11:15 AM on August 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Daily Kos guy argues that Ukraine is trying to capture Nova Kakhovka to block resupply of Kherson and stop water flow to Crimea. If true, this means no huge fight for Kherson city just yet.
posted by ryanrs at 11:15 AM on August 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
Not only are the Western educated and technically savvy Russians fleeing, the Soviet Education system collapsed in the 1991, and stopped turning out educated and technically savvy Russians in significant numbers.
When I joined my current company (in Sweden) last year, my engineering manager was a Russian guy in his 30s. A cheerful chap with a love of heavy-metal music.
We of course didn't talk about politics much at work, though I got the impression that he didn't see much hope in Russia, and having the technical skills to make it abroad, got out as soon as he could. He lived and worked in Berlin before, and sometime later, left the company to work in Amsterdam. At one point the discussion turned to the Soviet educational system having been strong on STEM, which I had heard. “Yes, it was strong on technology about 30 years ago, but not so much now”.
posted by acb at 11:38 AM on August 31, 2022 [7 favorites]
When I joined my current company (in Sweden) last year, my engineering manager was a Russian guy in his 30s. A cheerful chap with a love of heavy-metal music.
We of course didn't talk about politics much at work, though I got the impression that he didn't see much hope in Russia, and having the technical skills to make it abroad, got out as soon as he could. He lived and worked in Berlin before, and sometime later, left the company to work in Amsterdam. At one point the discussion turned to the Soviet educational system having been strong on STEM, which I had heard. “Yes, it was strong on technology about 30 years ago, but not so much now”.
posted by acb at 11:38 AM on August 31, 2022 [7 favorites]
a robot made out of meat: However, it's difficult not to pick up "WE ARE GOING TO ATTACK HERE. RIGHT HERE. I PROMISE. GO AHEAD AND MOVE YOUR FORCES FROM ELSEWHERE." as something the Russians have to scratch their heads about.
Well, what can they do? Consider it a diversion, and leave their troops where they are now? That would mean a bigger defeat if the current attack is the real one. Move troops and equipment to the Kherson region as reinforcements, treating the attack as the real one? And in that case, would those movements be enough, and quick enough, to prevent Ukraine achieving significant if not decisive gains? Are other sectors still strong enough to repel attacks there (probably not) and will Ukraine know they're not (very, very likely)?
It's the same dilemma every army holding a large front has: if there are several obvious and less obvious points where your opponent might attack, which one do you expect them to actually pick, and how do you mitigate the effects if they don't do what you expect?
posted by Stoneshop at 12:37 PM on August 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
Well, what can they do? Consider it a diversion, and leave their troops where they are now? That would mean a bigger defeat if the current attack is the real one. Move troops and equipment to the Kherson region as reinforcements, treating the attack as the real one? And in that case, would those movements be enough, and quick enough, to prevent Ukraine achieving significant if not decisive gains? Are other sectors still strong enough to repel attacks there (probably not) and will Ukraine know they're not (very, very likely)?
It's the same dilemma every army holding a large front has: if there are several obvious and less obvious points where your opponent might attack, which one do you expect them to actually pick, and how do you mitigate the effects if they don't do what you expect?
posted by Stoneshop at 12:37 PM on August 31, 2022 [1 favorite]
The FIRMS data is encouraging. You can see the concentration of fires North of the Khakova Reservoir moving south into areas that had been under Russian control at the start of the offensive. Here is the data from the 29th vs The 31st. After overlaying the two maps it looks to me like the battle in that region has moved south more than 10 kilometers. Note : FIRMS is open data and there isn't any real OPSEC risk here.
posted by interogative mood at 1:03 PM on August 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 1:03 PM on August 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
This article explains some of the technical difficulties with shutting down production of O&G wells. I thought of temporary shutdowns of platforms in the GOM due to hurricanes, so I had to look it up.
Bottom line, Russia is burning oil and gas that it can't store in the hope that production will resume soon. If it doesn't, and they have to shut down production in their fields, they may have to spend heavily to restart.
posted by Bee'sWing at 1:17 PM on August 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
Bottom line, Russia is burning oil and gas that it can't store in the hope that production will resume soon. If it doesn't, and they have to shut down production in their fields, they may have to spend heavily to restart.
posted by Bee'sWing at 1:17 PM on August 31, 2022 [4 favorites]
I've just finished reading The Future is History, How Totalitarianism Reclaimed Russia by Masha Gesson. It's excellent, and rather depressing, with the conclusion that the current Russian Society/Zeitgeist is deeply traumatized, and soaked in fascist propaganda that makes the talent brain-drain/dropping birth-rate worse, which ties into the 'Russia Doesn’t Have the Demographics for War (FP)' article. (yeah that Guardian critic snides, but it's a quick summary).
At this point in time, I predict a quasi-stalemate for the foreseeable future, with continual Russian artillery bombardments, and senseless bloodshed and loss of life.
This war will ultimately be won or lost in the war of words: if the Western World/NATO countries continue to withstand the flow of constant Russian propaganda... or, if our voters elect fascist sympathizers who weaken our support for Ukraine.
(I've also been reading more about Civil War General Ulysses Grant, who was an interesting technical genius, but also really obsessed with newspaper propaganda, one thing he couldn't control. He understood that The Civil War could have be lost if Southern newspapers influenced Northern "both-sides" newspapers enough to swing presidential elections to an appeaser candidate who would quit fighting.)
I've been a Dove my entire life (born around the same time of Vietnam escalation), a cynic about the cold war, and an opponent of various shitty pointless USA adventures throughout my lifetime. But for this particular geopolitical conflict, I'm Hawk-ish. It's already tears and heartbreak, and more to come, but the best possible future is continued Western support for Ukraine and resistance to Russian aggression. (Apologies for my armchair-coloneling).
posted by ovvl at 5:49 PM on August 31, 2022 [18 favorites]
At this point in time, I predict a quasi-stalemate for the foreseeable future, with continual Russian artillery bombardments, and senseless bloodshed and loss of life.
This war will ultimately be won or lost in the war of words: if the Western World/NATO countries continue to withstand the flow of constant Russian propaganda... or, if our voters elect fascist sympathizers who weaken our support for Ukraine.
(I've also been reading more about Civil War General Ulysses Grant, who was an interesting technical genius, but also really obsessed with newspaper propaganda, one thing he couldn't control. He understood that The Civil War could have be lost if Southern newspapers influenced Northern "both-sides" newspapers enough to swing presidential elections to an appeaser candidate who would quit fighting.)
I've been a Dove my entire life (born around the same time of Vietnam escalation), a cynic about the cold war, and an opponent of various shitty pointless USA adventures throughout my lifetime. But for this particular geopolitical conflict, I'm Hawk-ish. It's already tears and heartbreak, and more to come, but the best possible future is continued Western support for Ukraine and resistance to Russian aggression. (Apologies for my armchair-coloneling).
posted by ovvl at 5:49 PM on August 31, 2022 [18 favorites]
a cynic about the cold war, and an opponent of various shitty pointless USA adventures throughout my lifetime. But for this particular geopolitical conflict, I'm Hawk-ish.
This is me but I'm younger than Vietnam. Afghanistan/Iraq? Absou-fucking-lutely it was the closest thing to a Christian crusade this millennium and just fucking vengeful trash that lined the pockets of all those motherfuckers that orchestrated it. Even if you did operate under a vengeance model, what we did to Afghanistan and the Middle East was so disproportionate and a disgusting display of Western imperialism.
This war? With an aspirationally Democratic country going up against a bigger, fascist aggressor? There is no religious or ethnic power imbalances to be had here. You rarely see straight up good people trying to defeat straight up evil fuckers. Give me an LM hat and an F-35-chan Dakimakura and use our MIC to send those rashist orcs back to where they came from.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:02 PM on August 31, 2022 [8 favorites]
This is me but I'm younger than Vietnam. Afghanistan/Iraq? Absou-fucking-lutely it was the closest thing to a Christian crusade this millennium and just fucking vengeful trash that lined the pockets of all those motherfuckers that orchestrated it. Even if you did operate under a vengeance model, what we did to Afghanistan and the Middle East was so disproportionate and a disgusting display of Western imperialism.
This war? With an aspirationally Democratic country going up against a bigger, fascist aggressor? There is no religious or ethnic power imbalances to be had here. You rarely see straight up good people trying to defeat straight up evil fuckers. Give me an LM hat and an F-35-chan Dakimakura and use our MIC to send those rashist orcs back to where they came from.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:02 PM on August 31, 2022 [8 favorites]
and an opponent of various shitty pointless USA adventures throughout my lifetime
It was very disorienting for me to realize that American intelligence agencies spent the winter
- competently gathering accurate information and
- distributing that information honestly and in good faith to an international audience
- with the aim of preventing a coup against a democratic government.
I would never have expected to see such a heel-face turn from the CIA.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 9:33 PM on August 31, 2022 [18 favorites]
It was very disorienting for me to realize that American intelligence agencies spent the winter
- competently gathering accurate information and
- distributing that information honestly and in good faith to an international audience
- with the aim of preventing a coup against a democratic government.
I would never have expected to see such a heel-face turn from the CIA.
posted by justsomebodythatyouusedtoknow at 9:33 PM on August 31, 2022 [18 favorites]
I'm still surprised that Russia turned out to be even more incompetent, corrupt, and cynically evil than Western caricatures. It's as if they're a cartoon of our cartoons!
I wonder if the reverse is true, and we in the West are richer, more decadent, and gayer(?) than Russian domestic propaganda portrays us?
posted by ryanrs at 10:22 PM on August 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
I wonder if the reverse is true, and we in the West are richer, more decadent, and gayer(?) than Russian domestic propaganda portrays us?
posted by ryanrs at 10:22 PM on August 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
OK, then I guess I do understand what you mean, and don't understand why you think there's any particularly good reason to believe it will happen.OK. I guess I might not understand what you envision "Russia not recovering" to mean.Russia ceasing to exist as a coherent nation state.
If Russia really gets slapped around as a result of all this, I imagine various parts of the Caucasus might take the opportunity to break off. Maybe Kaliningrad, to take a shot at aligning themselves with the West, and essentially becoming a fourth Baltic state. Beyond that... what else? I guess maybe some Siberian republics that are defined by ethnicity, but... they're almost all majority Russian nowadays anyway, many of them overwhelmingly so.
But OK, say Russia loses all of that - the Caucasus, Kaliningrad, and, for the sake of simplicity, everything east of the Urals. What's left is still the largest country in Europe, both by population (significantly so) and by area (overwhelmingly so), with a large supermajority of the population being ethnic Russians. How is that going to break up? Are we going to see the Free City of Tver? The Republic of Nizhny-Novgorod? The Princedom of Rostov-on-Don? Why would any of that happen?
posted by Flunkie at 10:49 PM on August 31, 2022 [7 favorites]
From what I hear people saying (largely here) is that the Russian idea of their days being numbered is not that they'll straight up disintegrate, but that they'll get taken over by someone. That's the whole point of the theory of the securing various entry points into Russia that they must occupy that I keep hearing. But I have no idea who they're concerned is going to go through Ukraine to conquer Russia. Is it all of NATO in some weird joint project to somehow invade and then carve up Russia between all of the member states? Is it nearby states like Moldova? Romania? Poland? Maybe some descendant of Napoleon? None of that feels anything but laughable to me, but what do I know - people sure talk as though that's a real concern Russia really has.
posted by aubilenon at 11:12 PM on August 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by aubilenon at 11:12 PM on August 31, 2022 [2 favorites]
It's the same dilemma every army holding a large front has: if there are several obvious and less obvious points where your opponent might attack, which one do you expect them to actually pick, and how do you mitigate the effects if they don't do what you expect?
I was thinking that there's one possible wrench in the works for the Russians: The front is roughly banana-shaped. If the Ukrainians deploy to one flank, and the Russians follow suit, the Ukrainians just have to cross the inside of the curved banana to redeploy to where the Russian forces aren't, and the Russians have to go around the much longer outside curve to counter.
If the Ukrainians can move their forces quicker, they can attack while the Russians are still trying to get to the area. It would be a logistical challenge, but I keep thinking of the 100 tank transporters Germany donated months ago, that did not get much press but probably have been quite important for Ukraine.
posted by Harald74 at 11:46 PM on August 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
I was thinking that there's one possible wrench in the works for the Russians: The front is roughly banana-shaped. If the Ukrainians deploy to one flank, and the Russians follow suit, the Ukrainians just have to cross the inside of the curved banana to redeploy to where the Russian forces aren't, and the Russians have to go around the much longer outside curve to counter.
If the Ukrainians can move their forces quicker, they can attack while the Russians are still trying to get to the area. It would be a logistical challenge, but I keep thinking of the 100 tank transporters Germany donated months ago, that did not get much press but probably have been quite important for Ukraine.
posted by Harald74 at 11:46 PM on August 31, 2022 [3 favorites]
An oil man falls out of a window.
There's a good amount of analysis on Russia's 'need' to plug in any gap that a hypothetical tank could drive through on its way to Moscow from Ukraine, Syria, Poland, Japan, the Vatican and so on ... But this assumes a government interested in some kind of strategy beyond Mafia bosses doing Mafia things. Assassinations, kidnapping, tough guy talk, taking workers at nuclear power stations hostage, cutting off gas to countries that are 'against Russia'. There is no nation-state strategy here. This is about strong-arming countries (and their own citizens) to the ground until they cry for mercy — for money, power, land.
posted by UN at 4:37 AM on September 1, 2022 [8 favorites]
There's a good amount of analysis on Russia's 'need' to plug in any gap that a hypothetical tank could drive through on its way to Moscow from Ukraine, Syria, Poland, Japan, the Vatican and so on ... But this assumes a government interested in some kind of strategy beyond Mafia bosses doing Mafia things. Assassinations, kidnapping, tough guy talk, taking workers at nuclear power stations hostage, cutting off gas to countries that are 'against Russia'. There is no nation-state strategy here. This is about strong-arming countries (and their own citizens) to the ground until they cry for mercy — for money, power, land.
posted by UN at 4:37 AM on September 1, 2022 [8 favorites]
Once more: smoking kills.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:39 AM on September 1, 2022 [7 favorites]
Ravil Maganov, the chair of the board of the directors of Lukoil, Russia’s largest private oil company, “fell from a window at [Moscow’s] Central Clinical hospital,” the Interfax news agency wrote on Thursday, citing a source. “He died from injuries sustained [from the fall].”That heart condition must have been not having it in the right place, supporting the Special Military Operation.
His death was later confirmed by Lukoil, which only said that Maganov “passed away following a severe illness”. The company did not say what Maganov was being treated for.
It was not immediately clear whether his death was an accident, a suicide, or could be tied to foul play. Russian state media agencies citing an unnamed source reported that Maganov had been admitted to the hospital with a heart condition and had also been on antidepressants.
Baza, a Russian news site with close ties to the police, suggested he may have slipped from a balcony while smoking.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:39 AM on September 1, 2022 [7 favorites]
Harald74: If the Ukrainians can move their forces quicker, they can attack while the Russians are still trying to get to the area.
As just your J. Random Armchair-Strategist, if I had been planning for the current attack towards Kherson to be a feint, I would launch my main attack from the Zaporizhia area towards Tokmak and Melitopol, for several reasons.
First, there is only one east-west railway line in that region, running from Tokmak to some 30km north of Melitopol. With that one captured or destroyed the Russians will have a bit of a problem supplying their troops around Kherson, leaving their main route to be via Crimea, a fairly fragile one. There is also a river running from somewhat north of Tokmak to Melitopol, which makes a natural barrier.
Second, there's notable partisan resistance around Melitopol. You can likely count on sabotage to support your advance and keep part of the Russian forces there busy.
And as a bonus, south of Melitopol there's a body of water jutting towards Melitopol from the Sea of Azov.
posted by Stoneshop at 5:23 AM on September 1, 2022
As just your J. Random Armchair-Strategist, if I had been planning for the current attack towards Kherson to be a feint, I would launch my main attack from the Zaporizhia area towards Tokmak and Melitopol, for several reasons.
First, there is only one east-west railway line in that region, running from Tokmak to some 30km north of Melitopol. With that one captured or destroyed the Russians will have a bit of a problem supplying their troops around Kherson, leaving their main route to be via Crimea, a fairly fragile one. There is also a river running from somewhat north of Tokmak to Melitopol, which makes a natural barrier.
Second, there's notable partisan resistance around Melitopol. You can likely count on sabotage to support your advance and keep part of the Russian forces there busy.
And as a bonus, south of Melitopol there's a body of water jutting towards Melitopol from the Sea of Azov.
posted by Stoneshop at 5:23 AM on September 1, 2022
The Ukrainian school year starts on September 1st, and this year 300 thousand less students started lessons. Those are the ones who are now in school systems of other countries, but refugees also form part of the 1.2 million kids (out of 3.9 million schoolchildren total this year) learning exclusively online. In occupied territories there's a report from Mariupol that only 7 and 15 year olds were told to report to schools today for propaganda lessons, not the usual formal commencement of the school year.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 5:29 AM on September 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 5:29 AM on September 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
An Ukrainian reservist's notes from the front. According to UA and RU channels, it's legit, but you know ... read everything with a critical eye you find nowadays. Grim reading. Google/Yandex does a decent translation.
posted by kmt at 9:04 AM on September 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by kmt at 9:04 AM on September 1, 2022 [1 favorite]
The Ukrainian school year starts on September 1st, and this year 300 thousand less students started lessons.
Enrollment in my kid's elementary school in Toronto (which offers a bit of Ukrainian language instruction) has increased by 60% this year. 150 new Ukrainian kids whose families have fled the war.
posted by Kabanos at 9:50 AM on September 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
Enrollment in my kid's elementary school in Toronto (which offers a bit of Ukrainian language instruction) has increased by 60% this year. 150 new Ukrainian kids whose families have fled the war.
posted by Kabanos at 9:50 AM on September 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
But OK, say Russia loses all of that - the Caucasus, Kaliningrad, and, for the sake of simplicity, everything east of the Urals. What's left is still the largest country in Europe, both by population (significantly so) and by area (overwhelmingly so), with a large supermajority of the population being ethnic Russians. How is that going to break up?
Think of the economics for a minute. Ukraine prospered because they have the Dniester and Dnieper. Wide rivers opening to the Black Sea. Russia has the Don, which is narrow and opens to the inconvenient Sea of Azov. Then comes the Volga, which is good for exporting grain to Iran, and not much more. (And the narrow Don-Volga canal.) The next bunch of rivers are all useless as they pour to the Aral or the Arctic, until you reach the Amur.
So modern Russia was always going to have to make do with a rail-based economy, raising the price of bulk commodities. Strike one. Strike two is Moscow's policy of building those rail links so that trade links to and from Moscow predominate over anything else. Even though every Russian province has some small gain to be had from trading with their neighbors to the south, (not so small in the case of the Russian Far East,) Moscow has expressly made that difficult or impossible by policy. That is how they can keep their imperial capital a comfortable place to live when Moscow has no sound economic reason to even exist as any kind of city.
So that's how the breakup happens. You kill enough of the Muscovite elite to give the provinces a chance to do something, anything without Moscow bleeding them dry, and without Moscow stopping them from building rail links to the south or expanding trade on the Amur river. And then you get a federated Russia where every region is essentially another Stan: not especially prosperous or glamorous, but also not especially desperate or inclined to pose a threat to the whole world.
Now, to put the bell on the cat....
posted by ocschwar at 10:20 AM on September 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
Another bad trend for Putin: Crude oil is the lowest its been in 9 months. While gas to Europe has been making most of the headlines, oil is also a crucial element of funding Russia's war machine.
posted by gwint at 10:30 AM on September 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by gwint at 10:30 AM on September 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
In Toronto , actually Etobicoke, there are 3 elementary schools which offer Ukrainian language instruction.
One of them St. Demetrius is a small school which has a student body which is is 80 per cent fluent in Ukrainian, and about the same proportion has relatives in Ukraine.
They are accepting many refugee children.
posted by yyz at 10:40 AM on September 1, 2022 [6 favorites]
One of them St. Demetrius is a small school which has a student body which is is 80 per cent fluent in Ukrainian, and about the same proportion has relatives in Ukraine.
They are accepting many refugee children.
posted by yyz at 10:40 AM on September 1, 2022 [6 favorites]
Crude oil is the lowest it's been in 9 months.
This also bodes well for keeping a Ukraine friendly party in power in Washington.
posted by Bee'sWing at 12:24 PM on September 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
This also bodes well for keeping a Ukraine friendly party in power in Washington.
posted by Bee'sWing at 12:24 PM on September 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
Peter Zeihan is back from vacation and has uploaded his first video since before going on vacation.
HIghlights:
* Ukraine is making excellent use of long-range artillery combined with smart targeting information from both human sources on the ground, as well as US/Western satellites. Hitting precise targets including high ranking officers and command centers.
*The Russians in comparison are chunking out 40,000 (!) artillery rounds a day trying to flatten things, but they aren’t following up with tanks and infantry.
* Given that rate of fire, the Russians might be running out of ammunition, and have to dig into Soviet era artillery shells which are well past their “use-by date” of 20-25 years. It’s quite possible that some of the ammo dump explosions we’ve seen haven’t been due to sabotage or attacks, but by 30+ year old artillery shells being mishandled and cooking-off.
* Kherson is on the North side of the Dnieper River, and the Ukrainians have done their best to blast the bridges to the point where they can no longer convey heavy vehicles to resupply the Russian troops in Kherson. If the Ukrainians are able to drive the Russians out, they may have to retreat north along the river on foot and leave behind all their heavy equipment, which the Ukrainians will be able to pick up and use wi/out needing separate training like lots of Western weapons systems require.
* If the Ukrainians can control or destroy the water supply north of Crimea (which has a climate similar to Kansas), the largest Russian rear/staging area in occupied Ukraine will be without water
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 1:03 PM on September 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
HIghlights:
* Ukraine is making excellent use of long-range artillery combined with smart targeting information from both human sources on the ground, as well as US/Western satellites. Hitting precise targets including high ranking officers and command centers.
*The Russians in comparison are chunking out 40,000 (!) artillery rounds a day trying to flatten things, but they aren’t following up with tanks and infantry.
* Given that rate of fire, the Russians might be running out of ammunition, and have to dig into Soviet era artillery shells which are well past their “use-by date” of 20-25 years. It’s quite possible that some of the ammo dump explosions we’ve seen haven’t been due to sabotage or attacks, but by 30+ year old artillery shells being mishandled and cooking-off.
* Kherson is on the North side of the Dnieper River, and the Ukrainians have done their best to blast the bridges to the point where they can no longer convey heavy vehicles to resupply the Russian troops in Kherson. If the Ukrainians are able to drive the Russians out, they may have to retreat north along the river on foot and leave behind all their heavy equipment, which the Ukrainians will be able to pick up and use wi/out needing separate training like lots of Western weapons systems require.
* If the Ukrainians can control or destroy the water supply north of Crimea (which has a climate similar to Kansas), the largest Russian rear/staging area in occupied Ukraine will be without water
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 1:03 PM on September 1, 2022 [5 favorites]
The K in Kherson is mostly silent, right? Mr. Zeihan pronounces it "kierson," like Kate Pierson...
posted by Sauce Trough at 6:31 PM on September 1, 2022
If the Ukrainians can control or destroy the water supply north of Crimea (which has a climate similar to Kansas), the largest Russian rear/staging area in occupied Ukraine will be without waterWould this deprive Crimea of drinking water, irrigation water, or both?
posted by Sauce Trough at 6:31 PM on September 1, 2022
I think the KH in Kherson is pronounced like the ch in Bach.
posted by interogative mood at 6:37 PM on September 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 6:37 PM on September 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
Would this deprive Crimea of drinking water, irrigation water, or both?
Both, although it had been turned off since the Russians grabbed Crimea so it's not going to force them out right away.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:49 PM on September 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
Both, although it had been turned off since the Russians grabbed Crimea so it's not going to force them out right away.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:49 PM on September 1, 2022 [2 favorites]
Wikipedia says that the North Crimea Canal was shut down by Ukraine in 2014 after the annexation, but that the Russians turned it back on again in March 2022.
So as far as I can tell, it’s supplying water for irrigation and humans in Crimea right now. So it’s still a strategic target for the Ukrainians now.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 9:33 PM on September 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
So as far as I can tell, it’s supplying water for irrigation and humans in Crimea right now. So it’s still a strategic target for the Ukrainians now.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 9:33 PM on September 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
It is--and it was enough of a problem that they were thinking about building a desalination plant--but they managed without either for eight years.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:51 PM on September 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:51 PM on September 1, 2022 [3 favorites]
It seems like there's a reported uptick in Bayraktar operations in the South, possibly linked with the availability of AGM-88 HARM missiles and general efforts to target Russian air defense.
posted by Harald74 at 11:58 PM on September 1, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 11:58 PM on September 1, 2022
Zelensky and Patron visited a school in Irpin to mark the start of the school year.
I think it's the first picture I've seen of Zelensky smiling since the invasion started.
posted by Harald74 at 12:16 AM on September 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
I think it's the first picture I've seen of Zelensky smiling since the invasion started.
posted by Harald74 at 12:16 AM on September 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey: * Given that rate of fire, the Russians might be running out of ammunition
And barrels.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:35 AM on September 2, 2022 [3 favorites]
And barrels.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:35 AM on September 2, 2022 [3 favorites]
Earlier in the conflict, Ukraine said it would not bomb the dam and canal (in accordance with customary international law of war).
Lavrov's saber-rattling about Moldova again. Paired with the previous 'horizontal escalation' talk and the observations about depleted munitions and use of old stocks, maybe their real concern there is the Cobasna ammo dump.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:13 AM on September 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
Lavrov's saber-rattling about Moldova again. Paired with the previous 'horizontal escalation' talk and the observations about depleted munitions and use of old stocks, maybe their real concern there is the Cobasna ammo dump.
posted by snuffleupagus at 8:13 AM on September 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
Correction: The North Crimea Canal is an irrigation canal, not a drinking water supply. The strategic issue for Crimea is depriving Russian controlled Crimea of the ability to grow any food whatsoever beyond some dry-season wheat. Because then the Russians have to ship food into the area to feed their people.
Dry countries don’t attack wet one to steal their water, wet countries are the ones that have the ability to attack their dry neighbors. No water -> no food -> no population -> no industrial base -> no ability to project military power.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 8:35 AM on September 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
Dry countries don’t attack wet one to steal their water, wet countries are the ones that have the ability to attack their dry neighbors. No water -> no food -> no population -> no industrial base -> no ability to project military power.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 8:35 AM on September 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
Russia increases rocket attacks from Belarus after Ukraine's Independence Day [Kyiv Independent, Sept 2]:
The number of Russian rockets hitting Ukraine from Belarus substantially increased after Belarusian autocrat Alexander Lukashenko “congratulated” Ukraine on its Independence Day.
Meanwhile, Belarusian aircraft had been re-equipped to carry Russian nuclear weapons, while the newly created Belarusian territorial defense held exercises in Minsk.
Lukashenko expressed regret that the Belarus constitution adopted on Feb. 27 did not abolish presidential elections.
That last sentence is quite...something. And "surprising" is not it.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:10 AM on September 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
The number of Russian rockets hitting Ukraine from Belarus substantially increased after Belarusian autocrat Alexander Lukashenko “congratulated” Ukraine on its Independence Day.
Meanwhile, Belarusian aircraft had been re-equipped to carry Russian nuclear weapons, while the newly created Belarusian territorial defense held exercises in Minsk.
Lukashenko expressed regret that the Belarus constitution adopted on Feb. 27 did not abolish presidential elections.
That last sentence is quite...something. And "surprising" is not it.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:10 AM on September 2, 2022 [6 favorites]
Correction: The North Crimea Canal is an irrigation canal, not a drinking water supply.
North Crimean Canal - Wikipedia
If they're not using if for drinking right now (e.g., they haven't got treatment plants back online) they certainly plan to.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:38 AM on September 2, 2022 [2 favorites]
North Crimean Canal - Wikipedia
A 2015 study found that the canal had been providing 85% of Crimea's water prior to the canal's 2014 shutdown. Of that water from the canal, 72% went to agriculture and 10% to industry, while water for drinking and other public uses made up 18%.
If they're not using if for drinking right now (e.g., they haven't got treatment plants back online) they certainly plan to.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:38 AM on September 2, 2022 [2 favorites]
BBC's Quentin Sommerville reports from the Donbas front line, an accompanying video on Twitter here (CW: Some blood on a groaning wounded person, we're told that he later recovered.)
(And I do mean the front line, they're crossing a mined road and are told they are at one point 30 metres from Russian lines)
posted by Harald74 at 11:33 PM on September 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
(And I do mean the front line, they're crossing a mined road and are told they are at one point 30 metres from Russian lines)
posted by Harald74 at 11:33 PM on September 2, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ukraine is dependent on its allies. If NATO, lead by the US and the UK, say stop, Ukraine, unfortunately doesn't have many options.
I don't think Russia can crack the English speaking West's resolve though. BoJo and the Tories were neck deep in league with the Russians for years. They took Russian money and interference for Brexit and covered up the report into it. BoJo even made a KGB scion into a life peer! That's kissing with full tongue yet when it came to Russia invading Ukraine any further deal was 100% off and the UK was one of the first major military backers of Ukraine. I think the real concern is the pre-emptive German wavering and obstruction due to their continued frenching with Russian energy all the way up their previous leadership practically wearing a Z lapel badge.
posted by srboisvert at 12:44 PM on September 3, 2022 [8 favorites]
I don't think Russia can crack the English speaking West's resolve though. BoJo and the Tories were neck deep in league with the Russians for years. They took Russian money and interference for Brexit and covered up the report into it. BoJo even made a KGB scion into a life peer! That's kissing with full tongue yet when it came to Russia invading Ukraine any further deal was 100% off and the UK was one of the first major military backers of Ukraine. I think the real concern is the pre-emptive German wavering and obstruction due to their continued frenching with Russian energy all the way up their previous leadership practically wearing a Z lapel badge.
posted by srboisvert at 12:44 PM on September 3, 2022 [8 favorites]
Ukrainian journalist Kostyantyn Ryzhenko was in the city of Kherson from the start of the invasion until just recently. He tells a bit about the resistance there and makes some chilling predictions. (Article is in Ukrainian but machine translation does a servicable job)
posted by Harald74 at 11:06 PM on September 3, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:06 PM on September 3, 2022 [6 favorites]
Michael Kofman, one of the more careful and knowledgeable analysts on Russian and Ukrainian militaries, was on the War on the Rocks podcast on Friday, mainly discussing the southern offensive by Ukrainian armed forces, but also the war more widely. He also wrote a Twitter thread laying out his thinking on the situation near Kherson.
posted by Kattullus at 12:12 PM on September 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Kattullus at 12:12 PM on September 4, 2022 [2 favorites]
The Ukrainians announced the capture of Vysokopilla today with a photo of a soldier raising a flag over the city.
This town of about 4000 people (prewar) has been the north eastern outpost for the Russia military in the Kherson region . In some ways it could be a model for this offensive. Ukrainian forces have had the city partially surrounded for a few weeks and have had fire control over the main roads making it difficult to supply and defend. Russian telegram channels suggest there was some kind of break out today but there have also been a lot more pictures of Russian soldiers being taken as POWs in the last 24 hours so it is unclear.
posted by interogative mood at 7:55 PM on September 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
This town of about 4000 people (prewar) has been the north eastern outpost for the Russia military in the Kherson region . In some ways it could be a model for this offensive. Ukrainian forces have had the city partially surrounded for a few weeks and have had fire control over the main roads making it difficult to supply and defend. Russian telegram channels suggest there was some kind of break out today but there have also been a lot more pictures of Russian soldiers being taken as POWs in the last 24 hours so it is unclear.
posted by interogative mood at 7:55 PM on September 4, 2022 [4 favorites]
Yes, there's really been an uptick in captured Russians, it seems like. I've also seen a couple of videos of abandoned Russian positions, complete with personal weapons and uniforms. Seems like at least some Russians have changed into civilian garb to escape the front line.
posted by Harald74 at 11:29 PM on September 4, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 11:29 PM on September 4, 2022
Russia’s degrading war efforts (part of an update from The Kyiv Independent, which you can support on Patreon)
It's unthinkable. (I wonder if you can quit and avoid "volunteering".)
posted by Glinn at 7:44 AM on September 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
Likely due to the lack of volunteer troops, the Kremlin has now introduced new norms where it requires Russian state companies to designate “volunteers” from among their employees, Ukraine’s General Staff reported on Sept. 3.Pick 10,000 employees and send them poorly equipped, under inexperienced leadership with failing morale, probably to die.
According to the report, the government ordered the Russian state railway company to pick up to 10,000 volunteers who are to sign a short-term military service contract, in a move that likely aims to conscript more soldiers while avoiding a general mobilization.
It's unthinkable. (I wonder if you can quit and avoid "volunteering".)
posted by Glinn at 7:44 AM on September 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
Reviving an old chestnut: "In Soviet Russia, state volunteers you.".
posted by Stoneshop at 8:05 AM on September 5, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Stoneshop at 8:05 AM on September 5, 2022 [6 favorites]
A new take on "quiet quitting." As quiet as the grave.
posted by SPrintF at 8:29 AM on September 5, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by SPrintF at 8:29 AM on September 5, 2022 [2 favorites]
Bloomberg: Russia Privately Warns of Deep and Prolonged Economic Damage
Cites a report prepared for the RUS government. One part I found interesting:
Cites a report prepared for the RUS government. One part I found interesting:
Europe’s plans to stop importing Russian oil products -- about 55% of exports went there last year -- could trigger sharp cuts in production leaving the domestic market short of fuel, as well.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 5:16 PM on September 5, 2022 [5 favorites]
The Russian Federation’s Ongoing Aggression Against Ukraine As delivered by Ambassador Michael Carpenter to the Permanent Council, Vienna
September 1, 2022
All told, Russia’s forces and their proxy thugs have interrogated, detained, and forcibly deported into Russia’s territory an estimated 1.6 million Ukrainian citizens, including 260,000 children.
posted by adamvasco at 7:42 PM on September 5, 2022 [2 favorites]
September 1, 2022
All told, Russia’s forces and their proxy thugs have interrogated, detained, and forcibly deported into Russia’s territory an estimated 1.6 million Ukrainian citizens, including 260,000 children.
posted by adamvasco at 7:42 PM on September 5, 2022 [2 favorites]
From that NYT article:
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:15 PM on September 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
There have also been signs that the effectiveness of some Russian artillery shells has been degraded because of storage problems or poor maintenance of its ammunition stocks. To be most effective at wounding opposing troops, artillery shells burst in the air, just before they hit the ground. But the crater pattern created by Russian artillery forces over the summer showed that many of their shells were exploding on the ground, reducing the damage to Ukrainian trenches.I have to think NK isn't selling off their most recent stock.
While the condition of North Korean artillery shells is not clear, the country has extensive stocks of the ammunition.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:15 PM on September 5, 2022 [4 favorites]
I suppose that would depend on what Russia's willing to trade.
posted by ryanrs at 9:22 PM on September 5, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by ryanrs at 9:22 PM on September 5, 2022 [1 favorite]
From the most recent ISW assessment:
posted by Flunkie at 9:27 PM on September 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
Russian authorities are apparently attempting to recruit personnel typically unfit for military service due to physical and mental illnesses, further indicating that traditional sources of combat power are being increasingly exhausted.o_O
posted by Flunkie at 9:27 PM on September 5, 2022 [3 favorites]
Some good news: Ukraine is joining the EU's Common Transit Convention and the Convention on the Simplification of Formalities in Trade in Goods , an import step on the road to EU accession.
posted by Harald74 at 3:38 AM on September 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 3:38 AM on September 6, 2022 [4 favorites]
Russia is buying artillery shells and rockets from North korea. (NY Times)
There have also been signs that the effectiveness of some Russian artillery shells has been degraded because of storage problems or poor maintenance of its ammunition stocks. To be most effective at wounding opposing troops, artillery shells burst in the air, just before they hit the ground. But the crater pattern created by Russian artillery forces over the summer showed that many of their shells were exploding on the ground, reducing the damage to Ukrainian trenches.
You know things are going well when you turn to your friends Iran and North Korea for help.
posted by Bee'sWing at 4:02 AM on September 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
There have also been signs that the effectiveness of some Russian artillery shells has been degraded because of storage problems or poor maintenance of its ammunition stocks. To be most effective at wounding opposing troops, artillery shells burst in the air, just before they hit the ground. But the crater pattern created by Russian artillery forces over the summer showed that many of their shells were exploding on the ground, reducing the damage to Ukrainian trenches.
You know things are going well when you turn to your friends Iran and North Korea for help.
posted by Bee'sWing at 4:02 AM on September 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
Children escaping war in Ukraine get ready to start school in Manitoba
There are 11 English-Ukrainian bilingual schools in Manitoba and the system is expecting upwards of 800 new Ukrainian students - though not all in bilingual schools.
posted by Mitheral at 7:06 AM on September 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
There are 11 English-Ukrainian bilingual schools in Manitoba and the system is expecting upwards of 800 new Ukrainian students - though not all in bilingual schools.
posted by Mitheral at 7:06 AM on September 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
Rob Lee on the lessons for tanks in modern warfare based on the Russian-Ukrainian and the Nagarno-Karabakh war: The tank is not obsolete, and other observations about the future of combat
posted by kmt at 7:45 AM on September 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
Despite their effectiveness, modern anti-tank guided missiles were not the primary killers of Russian tanks. According to an adviser to Ukraine’s most senior military officer: “[A]nti-tank missiles slowed the Russians down [during the advance towards Kyiv], but what killed them was our artillery. That was what broke their units.” Indeed, countless videos posted by the Ukrainian military have confirmed this, including those showing the ill-fated offensive by Russia’s 6th Tank Regiment in Brovary in mid-March. In addition to artillery, many Russian tanks were destroyed or disabled by Soviet-era systems, such as TM-62 anti-tank mines. Javelins, next generation light anti-tank weapons, and Ukrainian-made Stugna-P anti-tank systems have been effective, but they are just one component of Ukraine’s anti-tank efforts. Indeed, they likely destroyed a relatively smaller share of Russia’s tanks during its offensive in the Donbas, where Russia conducted a more coherent combined-arms operation. It is also important to note that public sources may not provide a representative view of how Russian tanks were damaged. Russian tanks struck by Stugna-P or Javelins are much more likely to be filmed and uploaded to social media than tanks damaged by mines, which may not be recorded as frequently. Of course, artillery battalions are not cheap, so the available evidence regarding tank losses in Ukraine does not particularly support the argument that we are seeing a “swing in favor of smaller and cheaper defensive weapons.”Emphasis mine.
posted by kmt at 7:45 AM on September 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
“God fights on the side with the best artillery.”
— Napoleon
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 9:25 AM on September 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
— Napoleon
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 9:25 AM on September 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
Lots of reports today of a major Ukrainian counteroffensive around Balaklia in the Kharkiv region, i.e. the front on the opposite side of Ukraine from the Kherson region, suggesting that Russia might be having some difficulty maintaining a 1000km front line.
Also, In Kharkiv, a chimpanzee escaped from a zoo. It was walking around the city while zoo employees tried to convince it to return. Suddenly it started to rain, and the ape ran to a zoo employee for a jacket and then agreed to return to the zoo. It was taken back to the zoo on a bicycle.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 10:01 AM on September 6, 2022 [18 favorites]
Also, In Kharkiv, a chimpanzee escaped from a zoo. It was walking around the city while zoo employees tried to convince it to return. Suddenly it started to rain, and the ape ran to a zoo employee for a jacket and then agreed to return to the zoo. It was taken back to the zoo on a bicycle.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 10:01 AM on September 6, 2022 [18 favorites]
You know, totally understandable chimp, totally understandable. Hope you have a nice and dry evening.
posted by Harald74 at 10:16 AM on September 6, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 10:16 AM on September 6, 2022 [7 favorites]
The Chieftain had an informative video a few months ago about the continuing viability of the tank. Short version: The large caliber cannon on a tank is faster to fire and the shells are cheaper than rockets. It can effectively engage many kinds of targets from entrenched troops to helicopters. A cannon shell arrives on target much faster than a rocket. It can kill two targets that are two kilometers away in under 10 seconds. If it misses, it can shoot again in 4 seconds. It has active defensive measures raging from smoke to Trophy.
posted by Bee'sWing at 11:01 AM on September 6, 2022
posted by Bee'sWing at 11:01 AM on September 6, 2022
Russian invader describes the situation in temporarily occupied Kherson (wartranslated.com)
This document describing the situation in the occupied Kherson was found on Telegram, shared by the neo-nazi group “Rusich” which is taking part in the war in Ukraine. The original can be found here: https://telegra.ph/Strah-i-nenavist-v-Hersone-09-06posted by Kabanos at 11:13 AM on September 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
The post mentions the contempt of locals resident of Kherson towards invaders, and we presume the author is one of the Russian military given their mention of wearing camouflage. We added some comments with clarifications to the text.
Even if its authentic, I don't like the idea of getting info from a neo-Nazi group. It's bad enough that the Russians use their presence as an excuse for this war. They ought to be treated as radioactive.
posted by Reverend John at 12:05 PM on September 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Reverend John at 12:05 PM on September 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
They're part of the Wagner Group. Russian, not Ukrainian.
(not that that makes them any better, of course, but Russia is not using their presence as an excuse for the war)
posted by Flunkie at 12:24 PM on September 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
(not that that makes them any better, of course, but Russia is not using their presence as an excuse for the war)
posted by Flunkie at 12:24 PM on September 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
Never trust a Nazi. Especially when they're telling you what you want to hear.
posted by acb at 12:36 PM on September 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by acb at 12:36 PM on September 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
the government ordered the Russian state railway company to pick up to 10,000 volunteers who are to sign a short-term military service contract
It seems like an extremely short-sighted idea to convert logistics workers into cannon fodder, if you're six months into a stalled invasion with immense ammunition requirements and long supply lines. Russia is either very stupid (probably true) or very desperate (also probably true).
posted by meowzilla at 12:49 PM on September 6, 2022 [8 favorites]
It seems like an extremely short-sighted idea to convert logistics workers into cannon fodder, if you're six months into a stalled invasion with immense ammunition requirements and long supply lines. Russia is either very stupid (probably true) or very desperate (also probably true).
posted by meowzilla at 12:49 PM on September 6, 2022 [8 favorites]
Maybe they're betting on the cannon fodder to come not from the vital logistics workers but the Golgafrinchan-B-ark people who are dispensible? I mean, who needs sanitised telephones anyway?
posted by acb at 2:22 PM on September 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by acb at 2:22 PM on September 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
Or troops from essential industries would be sent to non-frontline postings to free up more expendable fodder.
posted by Quasirandom at 3:07 PM on September 6, 2022
posted by Quasirandom at 3:07 PM on September 6, 2022
Even so that locks those essential industry workers in the non front line postings degrading the effectiveness of your essential industries. It would be different if this was a short term holding measure (maybe you are waiting to get troops trained or something) but that doesn't appear to be the case.
posted by Mitheral at 5:11 PM on September 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Mitheral at 5:11 PM on September 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
US Lt General Mark Hertling (retired), former commanding General US Army Europe has some thoughts on Ukraine's moves the Kharkiv region today.
posted by interogative mood at 6:56 PM on September 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 6:56 PM on September 6, 2022 [2 favorites]
"...the government ordered the Russian state railway company to pick up to 10,000 volunteers who are to sign a short-term military service contract..."
"...It seems like an extremely short-sighted idea to convert logistics workers into cannon fodder, if you're six months into a stalled invasion with immense ammunition requirements and long supply lines. Russia is either very stupid (probably true) or very desperate (also probably true)..."
I think maybe the reason they are conscripting railway workers is that they are now desperate for manpower with exactly that skill set - With railway lines and their infrastructure being a primary target for the Ukrainians, not only do the Russians need people to do repairs on the damaged lines, but the casualty rate for personnel who manage loading and unloading. shunting, driving and handling derailments, and doing repairs and maintenance on the lines is possibly much higher than many of the other specialties they have been sending to the front.
I think I would rather be in the Russian infantry than be a Russian railway workers being sent to the front. When your job is working with trains and train tracks, there are relatively few locations you can be assigned to work, and all of them are easily identifiable with minimal reconnaissance.
posted by Jane the Brown at 9:03 PM on September 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
"...It seems like an extremely short-sighted idea to convert logistics workers into cannon fodder, if you're six months into a stalled invasion with immense ammunition requirements and long supply lines. Russia is either very stupid (probably true) or very desperate (also probably true)..."
I think maybe the reason they are conscripting railway workers is that they are now desperate for manpower with exactly that skill set - With railway lines and their infrastructure being a primary target for the Ukrainians, not only do the Russians need people to do repairs on the damaged lines, but the casualty rate for personnel who manage loading and unloading. shunting, driving and handling derailments, and doing repairs and maintenance on the lines is possibly much higher than many of the other specialties they have been sending to the front.
I think I would rather be in the Russian infantry than be a Russian railway workers being sent to the front. When your job is working with trains and train tracks, there are relatively few locations you can be assigned to work, and all of them are easily identifiable with minimal reconnaissance.
posted by Jane the Brown at 9:03 PM on September 6, 2022 [3 favorites]
Based on what I have seen from the extensive PoW interviews and other sources, there is little liklihood that the 10,000 railway conscripts will be given specialty jobs. They will be minimally trained and then sent to random front line units in penny packets.
posted by Meatbomb at 11:04 PM on September 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Meatbomb at 11:04 PM on September 6, 2022 [1 favorite]
Eponysterical.
posted by acb at 1:10 AM on September 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by acb at 1:10 AM on September 7, 2022 [5 favorites]
It sure does look like Russia has stumbled into a for-real, no backsies, strategic fuckup in Kherson.
posted by ryanrs at 1:31 AM on September 7, 2022
posted by ryanrs at 1:31 AM on September 7, 2022
While stuff is blowing up in the vicinity of the airport in Mariupol (smoking?), things are apparently going down in the north-east as well. A Su-25 has been downed and a Russian colonel captured, and there's all kinds of panicky messages on Russian Telegram accounts describing Ukrainian advances. It will be very interesting to see if this is just a few attacks of opportunity on the thinly held Russian lines, or if Ukraine has sneakily massed forces for a proper offensive.
Thomas C. Theiner has a thread on Twitter explaining possible Ukrainian short-term goals in Donbas.
posted by Harald74 at 4:28 AM on September 7, 2022
Thomas C. Theiner has a thread on Twitter explaining possible Ukrainian short-term goals in Donbas.
posted by Harald74 at 4:28 AM on September 7, 2022
Lt. Gen. Hertling (ret) is back on Twitter today, congratulating the Ukrainian Armed Forces: Over the past 48 hrs, Ukraine brilliantly executed a relatively small-scale armored attack that will reap gains in Kharkiv Oblast
They regained key terrain that will affect Russian supply lines, w/ the added benefit of depleting RU units & overall RU morale.
Well done!
Seems like the general consensus is that this a solid win for the Ukrainians.
posted by Harald74 at 5:17 AM on September 7, 2022
They regained key terrain that will affect Russian supply lines, w/ the added benefit of depleting RU units & overall RU morale.
Well done!
Seems like the general consensus is that this a solid win for the Ukrainians.
posted by Harald74 at 5:17 AM on September 7, 2022
The Washington Post on the Kherson counterattack and the casualties on the Ukrainian side: Wounded Ukrainian soldiers reveal steep toll of Kherson offensive (non-paywalled version)
At the start of the conflict, Russia and Ukraine fought with professional military units. After suffering heavy losses in the eastern Donbas region, each side began deploying volunteer or reservist units with less experience.posted by kmt at 5:55 AM on September 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
The Kherson counteroffensive is now testing Ukraine’s forces in new ways, Lee said.
Ukrainian soldiers who faced off with Russians over the last few months gained new battlefield acumen “but much of that experience likely involved holding defensive positions,” he said. “Conducting offensive operations is far more difficult, and it takes time and training.”
Peter Zeihan: Rather than “rolling their own”, Russia is buying drones with limited capacity from Iran, not a country known as an industrial powerhouse.
Also, Russia is buying artillery shells from North Korea. Given that Russia’s military doctrine is massively artillery based, and that they used to be the #2 arms exporters (by value) on the planet, this could signal that Russia’s industrial capacity fundamentally does not have the capability to keep up with their war effort, and may be in a state of collapse..
From Twitter:
Also, Russia is buying artillery shells from North Korea. Given that Russia’s military doctrine is massively artillery based, and that they used to be the #2 arms exporters (by value) on the planet, this could signal that Russia’s industrial capacity fundamentally does not have the capability to keep up with their war effort, and may be in a state of collapse..
From Twitter:
Re: Ukraine/Russiaposted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 1:23 PM on September 7, 2022 [3 favorites]
So you know where my brain is today - Something @NayebiOskoui said to me yesterday is stuck in my mind:
"Russia seems to be attempting to pass off lack of capacity as a lack of competence."
This isn't how nations lose wars.
This is how nations collapse.
Reports coming in of a mass surrender/capture of hundreds of encircled Russian soldiers in Balakliya. This is the kind of victory that could force Russian leaders to reconsider the viability of this project and start planning for a change of leadership.
posted by interogative mood at 1:52 PM on September 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 1:52 PM on September 7, 2022 [4 favorites]
The counterattack(s?) seem to be going very well. Russians are not having a great day. They are getting fucked up.
(cw: first link shows an injured person with likely a burst eardrum; last link, a dead soldier.)
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 2:24 PM on September 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
(cw: first link shows an injured person with likely a burst eardrum; last link, a dead soldier.)
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 2:24 PM on September 7, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ukraine Armed Forces' C-in-C, general Valeriy Zaluzhnyi, has an article out on the Ukrainian perspective on continued hostilities.
posted by Harald74 at 12:03 AM on September 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:03 AM on September 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
It looks like he's asking for long range missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia.
posted by Reverend John at 6:38 AM on September 8, 2022
posted by Reverend John at 6:38 AM on September 8, 2022
This would be an opportune time for A-10s to materialize in theater. (And the much rumored F-16s, if that's actually happening.) The energy war is getting increasingly serious for Europe, it would help for the direction of the real war to tilt towards Ukraine as much as possible before the winter. And there's the US midterms to worry about, in terms of sustained support.
From the directorate of idle speculation, now that Ukraine has reclaimed some measure of control of the Black Sea in the vicinity of Snake Island, and Russian air assets have been pulled from Crimea, I wonder if some of the deeper drone strikes might be sea-launched, from barges.
There's a VTOL follow-on to the Bayraktar that was slated to start delivery this year, but something carrying sizable bombs would presumably need at least some kind of runway.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:16 AM on September 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
From the directorate of idle speculation, now that Ukraine has reclaimed some measure of control of the Black Sea in the vicinity of Snake Island, and Russian air assets have been pulled from Crimea, I wonder if some of the deeper drone strikes might be sea-launched, from barges.
There's a VTOL follow-on to the Bayraktar that was slated to start delivery this year, but something carrying sizable bombs would presumably need at least some kind of runway.
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:16 AM on September 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
It looks like he's asking for long range missiles to strike targets deep inside Russia.
On first read I understood it to be about hitting Crimea but I think you're right. This may be a key paragraph:
If Ukraine succeeds in receiving the appropriate weapons, operational and strategic prospects for 2023 will look totally different. The very threat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces employing means of destruction of the appropriate range will force Russia to reconsider the nature, course, and outcome of the ongoing confrontation.
And really, why not? Giving Ukraine those rockets is probably the fastest way to get those Russian troops away from the nuclear reactors they've been sitting on — which will make all of Europe and parts of Asia safer. Moscow should be worried and this is how it can be done.
posted by UN at 8:31 AM on September 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
On first read I understood it to be about hitting Crimea but I think you're right. This may be a key paragraph:
If Ukraine succeeds in receiving the appropriate weapons, operational and strategic prospects for 2023 will look totally different. The very threat of the Ukrainian Armed Forces employing means of destruction of the appropriate range will force Russia to reconsider the nature, course, and outcome of the ongoing confrontation.
And really, why not? Giving Ukraine those rockets is probably the fastest way to get those Russian troops away from the nuclear reactors they've been sitting on — which will make all of Europe and parts of Asia safer. Moscow should be worried and this is how it can be done.
posted by UN at 8:31 AM on September 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
If the Ukrainians can move their forces quicker, they can attack while the Russians are still trying to get to the area. It would be a logistical challenge, but I keep thinking of the 100 tank transporters Germany donated months ago, that did not get much press but probably have been quite important for Ukraine.
And indeed, sudden action at the other end of the banana.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:46 AM on September 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
And indeed, sudden action at the other end of the banana.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:46 AM on September 8, 2022 [3 favorites]
Retired Australian general Mick Ryan is impressed with Zaluzhnyi's article.
posted by Harald74 at 11:38 AM on September 8, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 11:38 AM on September 8, 2022
We have managed to get a lot more Su-25’s to Ukraine from various Eastern European countries in the last month. These are able to fly similar missions as the A-10 and have the advantage of being cheaper to fly and what their pilots are trained to use.
posted by interogative mood at 11:53 AM on September 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 11:53 AM on September 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
Have they? On Wikipedia's list of Su-25 operators, it didn't seem like there were many likely candidates for donation, unless I overlooked something.
posted by Harald74 at 12:01 PM on September 8, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 12:01 PM on September 8, 2022
I'm not sure about the accuracy of the Wikipedia page. I know that North Macedonia reportedly donated 4 aircraft that had been decommissioned. Officially of course these are provided as "aircraft parts" not full jets, but the Ukrainians have been able to assemble these parts into fully working aircraft.
posted by interogative mood at 12:18 PM on September 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 12:18 PM on September 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
Czechia and Bulgaria each have (or had) two dozen; the Czech ones were retired from service since 2000. According to Oryx' list 14 Bulgarian Su-25's have been transferred to Ukraine, and 4 from North Macedonia.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:25 PM on September 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Stoneshop at 12:25 PM on September 8, 2022 [1 favorite]
However, it's difficult not to pick up "WE ARE GOING TO ATTACK HERE. RIGHT HERE. I PROMISE. GO AHEAD AND MOVE YOUR FORCES FROM ELSEWHERE." as something the Russians have to scratch their heads about.
(Posted the 31st.)
Yeah I think maybe some of those heads will roll.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 3:38 PM on September 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
(Posted the 31st.)
Yeah I think maybe some of those heads will roll.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 3:38 PM on September 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
Ukraine is advancing on the Kherson front, too, in spite of the Russian build-up there. Ukraine gets to pick and choose where to attack, and Russia is left with no good choices about how to deploy and supply their forces.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 5:43 PM on September 8, 2022
posted by 1970s Antihero at 5:43 PM on September 8, 2022
The ISW report is out for Sept 8th
Some of their takeaways are:
Some of their takeaways are:
posted by interogative mood at 9:50 PM on September 8, 2022 [4 favorites]
- Ukrainian successes on the Kharkiv City-Izyum line are creating fissures within the Russian information space and eroding confidence in Russian command to a degree not seen since a failed Russian river crossing in mid-May.
- Ukrainian forces in the Kharkiv Oblast counteroffensives advanced to within 20 kilometers of Russia’s key logistical node in Kupyansk on September 8
- Ukrainian forces will likely capture Kupyansk in the next 72 hours, severely degrading but not completely severing Russian ground lines of communication (GLOCs) to Izyum
Ukraine is advancing on the Kherson front, too, in spite of the Russian build-up there.
It's starting to be an interesting question, whether Ukraine looked at it's strategy in Kherson and said "this is going to work regardless of their reinforcements, so let's get them to send as many reinforcements as they can!" It's starting to look like the equivalent of a gambler holding a flush and coyly raising a bunch of times to drive up the pot.
posted by fatbird at 11:35 PM on September 8, 2022
It's starting to be an interesting question, whether Ukraine looked at it's strategy in Kherson and said "this is going to work regardless of their reinforcements, so let's get them to send as many reinforcements as they can!" It's starting to look like the equivalent of a gambler holding a flush and coyly raising a bunch of times to drive up the pot.
posted by fatbird at 11:35 PM on September 8, 2022
Retired Australian general Mick Ryan again, weighing on on whether Russia has ceded the initiative in this war to Ukraine.
posted by Harald74 at 11:37 PM on September 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:37 PM on September 8, 2022 [2 favorites]
However, as regards to the possible capture of Russian general Sychevoi, has that been confirmed? There's a lot of discussion on Twitter of whether that's him or not in that lt. colonel's uniform.
posted by Harald74 at 11:44 PM on September 8, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 11:44 PM on September 8, 2022
Barbara Tuchman in Guns of August came to mind when trying to determine which Russian officer we're looking at in the pictures: “Of the two classes of Prussian officer, the bull-necked and the wasp-waisted, he belonged to the second."
posted by Harald74 at 12:43 AM on September 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:43 AM on September 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
The flip side of the Russian units in Kherson having limited resupply is that they're kind of stuck. There are only the 2 ways out, and they are both subject to long range artillery fire if UAF has the capability to spot when troops are moving in significant numbers.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 7:26 AM on September 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by a robot made out of meat at 7:26 AM on September 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
a robot made out of meat: There are only the 2 ways out, and they are both subject to long range artillery fire if UAF has the capability to spot when troops are moving in significant numbers.
When people in Melitopol are simply able to film a convoy heading towards Kakhova and Kherson and post that to a Telegram channel, it should kind of change the way the Russians have to act (but quite probably doesn't).
That pontoon bridge over the Dnipro at Nova Kakhova is also clearly in the crosshairs of Ukrainian artillery.
posted by Stoneshop at 8:23 AM on September 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
When people in Melitopol are simply able to film a convoy heading towards Kakhova and Kherson and post that to a Telegram channel, it should kind of change the way the Russians have to act (but quite probably doesn't).
That pontoon bridge over the Dnipro at Nova Kakhova is also clearly in the crosshairs of Ukrainian artillery.
posted by Stoneshop at 8:23 AM on September 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
The recent Ukrainian advance in the Kharkiv region is shaping up to be the biggest defeat for the Russian/Soviet army since 1943. In 72 hours the Ukrainians have taken more land than Russia has since May. Lieutenant General Andrei Sychevoi has likely been captured. He commanded the Western Military District (Eastern occupied Ukraine). This may explain Russias difficulties coordinating their defense, since their top down leadership model discourages individual initiative.
posted by interogative mood at 8:40 AM on September 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 8:40 AM on September 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
UKR claiming over 2,000 RUS KIAs in the last four days. How long can the "Nothing has really changed in Russia" narrative keep up?
posted by gwint at 8:50 AM on September 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by gwint at 8:50 AM on September 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
LNR soldiers angry that they have been fighting seven months without rotation, while the officers loot everything.
(content: just military guys yelling at each other)
posted by ryanrs at 10:58 AM on September 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
(content: just military guys yelling at each other)
posted by ryanrs at 10:58 AM on September 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
leaked plans for the kherson counteroffensive
posted by ryanrs at 5:07 PM on September 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 5:07 PM on September 9, 2022 [4 favorites]
The recent Ukrainian advance in the Kharkiv region is shaping up to be the biggest defeat for the Russian/Soviet army since 1943.
Which, coincidentally, was also in Kharkiv.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 5:28 PM on September 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
Which, coincidentally, was also in Kharkiv.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 5:28 PM on September 9, 2022 [3 favorites]
Captured Russian position shows fortifications and living quarters made entirely out of discarded wooden ammo boxes.
(Not even making fun of it. That is good battlefield craftsmanship.)
posted by ryanrs at 6:15 PM on September 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
(Not even making fun of it. That is good battlefield craftsmanship.)
posted by ryanrs at 6:15 PM on September 9, 2022 [2 favorites]
NATO calls on allies to supply winter uniforms for Ukrainian army
BRUSSELS, Sept 9 (Reuters) - NATO Secretary-General Jens Stoltenberg urged allies on Friday to supply Kyiv with winter gear such as clothing, tents and generators to enable Ukrainian troops to keep on fighting Russia's invasion in the cold season.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:14 PM on September 9, 2022 [5 favorites]
Average winter temperatures are below freezing for much of the country and it is not unusual for temperatures to drop to minus 15 degrees Celsius.
"The winter is coming, it's going to be hard, and therefore we need both to continue to supply weapons and ammunition but also winter clothing, tents, generators and all the specific equipment which is needed for the winter," Stoltenberg told reporters after meeting U.S. Secretary of State Antony Blinken in Brussels.
The military setbacks have to sting, but I think the deepest burn is this tweet from the Ukraine Ministry of Defense:
It is clear to us why, under the pressure of our military, the russkies leave behind their weapons and ammunition when fleeing (this is always the case).
But to abandon a washing machine! A trophy won with so much effort!
We will never understand this.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:17 PM on September 9, 2022 [16 favorites]
It is clear to us why, under the pressure of our military, the russkies leave behind their weapons and ammunition when fleeing (this is always the case).
But to abandon a washing machine! A trophy won with so much effort!
We will never understand this.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:17 PM on September 9, 2022 [16 favorites]
New winter clothing is hard to come by on the market these days. Supply problems there as everywhere else. But hopefully existing stocks can be sent, as Denmark is doing.
I also have a hunch that the Russians will have trouble equipping their guys for winter, as they reportedly did not manage to deliver summer uniforms to many frontline troops who invaded in February. "Those guys have winter uniforms, though!" Well yes, but after six months of campaigning those are going to be pretty threadbare for the most part if used, and possibly lost if they had to drag them around in their packs all this time.
I have Artic warfare training, and I can promise you that freezing in a trench in Ukraine with inadequate gear for months is really going to do a number on Russian motivation. Not to speak of increased casualty numbers due to frostbite, trench foot and the like.
posted by Harald74 at 11:08 PM on September 9, 2022 [10 favorites]
I also have a hunch that the Russians will have trouble equipping their guys for winter, as they reportedly did not manage to deliver summer uniforms to many frontline troops who invaded in February. "Those guys have winter uniforms, though!" Well yes, but after six months of campaigning those are going to be pretty threadbare for the most part if used, and possibly lost if they had to drag them around in their packs all this time.
I have Artic warfare training, and I can promise you that freezing in a trench in Ukraine with inadequate gear for months is really going to do a number on Russian motivation. Not to speak of increased casualty numbers due to frostbite, trench foot and the like.
posted by Harald74 at 11:08 PM on September 9, 2022 [10 favorites]
Captured Russian position shows fortifications and living quarters made entirely out of discarded wooden ammo boxes.
(Not even making fun of it. That is good battlefield craftsmanship.)
Seriously, it's a sign of a disciplined unit, which translates directly into combat effectiveness. Other Russian positions have looked more like really badly run homeless encampments. The former soldier in me is shuddering everytime those crop up on the screen.
posted by Harald74 at 11:11 PM on September 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
(Not even making fun of it. That is good battlefield craftsmanship.)
Seriously, it's a sign of a disciplined unit, which translates directly into combat effectiveness. Other Russian positions have looked more like really badly run homeless encampments. The former soldier in me is shuddering everytime those crop up on the screen.
posted by Harald74 at 11:11 PM on September 9, 2022 [7 favorites]
Early in the war there was a video of a battlefield sauna constructed by Finnish volunteers. All of Finnish military Twitter were like yup, that's our guys.
posted by Harald74 at 11:12 PM on September 9, 2022 [15 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:12 PM on September 9, 2022 [15 favorites]
Finns say sauna, I say torture chamber. Never paying for self-harm again.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 11:56 PM on September 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 11:56 PM on September 9, 2022 [1 favorite]
My wife is Lativan, also a "sauna culture". She's almost killed me on several occasions...
posted by Harald74 at 12:12 AM on September 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:12 AM on September 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
All Finnish military units have mobile saunas, and it's not negotiable. They brought them with them when doing peacekeeping in the Middle East recently, for example. It's like the way Italian soldiers all have moka pots in their kit for preparing proper coffee.
posted by acb at 4:25 AM on September 10, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by acb at 4:25 AM on September 10, 2022 [10 favorites]
Kyiv Independent, 24 minutes ago: ⚡️Ukrainian troops confirm entering Kupiansk, Kharkiv Oblast.
The Security Service of Ukraine posted a photo of special operations forces in Kupiansk after unverified reports of the liberation of the city on the morning of Sept. 10.
The liberation of Kupiansk, which had a peacetime population of 28,000, is one of the most significant Ukrainian victories since Russian troops withdrew from the north of Ukraine in April, and represents a likely near total collapse of Russian defenses in the region.
posted by cendawanita at 5:03 AM on September 10, 2022 [8 favorites]
The Security Service of Ukraine posted a photo of special operations forces in Kupiansk after unverified reports of the liberation of the city on the morning of Sept. 10.
The liberation of Kupiansk, which had a peacetime population of 28,000, is one of the most significant Ukrainian victories since Russian troops withdrew from the north of Ukraine in April, and represents a likely near total collapse of Russian defenses in the region.
posted by cendawanita at 5:03 AM on September 10, 2022 [8 favorites]
All the more serious analytics on Twitter these days are starting threads like: "Possibly Ukraina can gain territory within artillery range of A, and this means this and that for the continued war effort", and by the day's end it's like "Nevermind, Ukrainian forces are posting videos from A already". It's happening at dizzying speed atm.
posted by Harald74 at 5:07 AM on September 10, 2022 [19 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 5:07 AM on September 10, 2022 [19 favorites]
The speed of the Ukrainian counteroffensive over the past 24 hours has been breathtaking. Izyum has been liberated. Partisans in Mariupol have raised the Ukrainian flag over several key buildings. The Ukrainian offensive now appears to be retaking cities in Donetsk oblast. There are reports that the AFU were 15KM from Kherson city, yesterday, [with] explosion(s) in Melitopol—and retaking the latter would put them within HIMARS range of the Kerch bridge.
Slightly frustrating to be surrounded by wall-to-wall royal news here in the UK when one of the most spectacular counteroffensives in history is underway.
posted by rory at 5:08 AM on September 10, 2022 [25 favorites]
Slightly frustrating to be surrounded by wall-to-wall royal news here in the UK when one of the most spectacular counteroffensives in history is underway.
posted by rory at 5:08 AM on September 10, 2022 [25 favorites]
Panic in Moscow . They blocked the Moscow Ring Road, the equipment of the Russian Guard is heading towards Balashikha. What is happening is not clear yet...
Please, please be something significant. Let's get this fucking war over with.
posted by Meatbomb at 5:42 AM on September 10, 2022 [10 favorites]
Please, please be something significant. Let's get this fucking war over with.
posted by Meatbomb at 5:42 AM on September 10, 2022 [10 favorites]
One of the major weaknesses of Russian style Walls Of Artillery is what happens when that defense is broken through... I'm not at all surprised that there is apparently a massive collapse of the poorly led, poorly equipped and demoralized Russian army. What remains of it after being wasted and sacrificed and pummeled by the Ukrainians fighting for their homes, freedom and lives.
The only question now is if any Russian lines can hold... Which in turn makes me wonder if the better question is "Can any Russian lines hold long enough to make a semi organized retreat, or is the entire invasion going to melt away?" They do still have some significant strong points in the Donbas, but, uh, being flanked by angry Ukrainians is not a position I'd want to be in.
In some ways Russia lost the war when they failed to take Kyiv. In another, they should have stopped attacking a long time ago and just held on to their illegal, blood soaked gains. But the entire invasion has been a mess, and the dam is breaking.
posted by Jacen at 5:43 AM on September 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
The only question now is if any Russian lines can hold... Which in turn makes me wonder if the better question is "Can any Russian lines hold long enough to make a semi organized retreat, or is the entire invasion going to melt away?" They do still have some significant strong points in the Donbas, but, uh, being flanked by angry Ukrainians is not a position I'd want to be in.
In some ways Russia lost the war when they failed to take Kyiv. In another, they should have stopped attacking a long time ago and just held on to their illegal, blood soaked gains. But the entire invasion has been a mess, and the dam is breaking.
posted by Jacen at 5:43 AM on September 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
Just two weeks ago, the “experts” were saying that the UAF was fine fighting a defensive, static war, but they did not have the experience to execute a combined-arms offensive operation. And then this happens.
For all the weapons that the USA has given Ukraine, I think the real hero of the war might end up being Poland and their T-72s.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 6:11 AM on September 10, 2022 [8 favorites]
For all the weapons that the USA has given Ukraine, I think the real hero of the war might end up being Poland and their T-72s.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 6:11 AM on September 10, 2022 [8 favorites]
An map animation of the last few days, for those having trouble visualizing.
posted by mazola at 7:31 AM on September 10, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by mazola at 7:31 AM on September 10, 2022 [14 favorites]
Official response: Russian Defence Ministry calls it a "regrouping".
Technically true.
posted by mazola at 7:40 AM on September 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
Technically true.
posted by mazola at 7:40 AM on September 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
Journalist Mary Ilyushina reports:
Oh wow. Russian Defense Ministry now acknowledging the retreat, calling it “regrouping.”posted by Kattullus at 7:41 AM on September 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
“In order to achieve goals of the special military operation…a decision was made to regroup the Russian troops stationed in Balakliya and Izyum to step up efforts in the Donetsk direction.”
It is not only regrouping but also a “distraction.”
“A three day operation was carried out to to curtail and redeploy the Izyum-Balakliya troops to DPR… a number of distractions were carried out with the designation of the real actions of the troops.”
Strong Black Knight energy there.
posted by acb at 8:47 AM on September 10, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by acb at 8:47 AM on September 10, 2022 [9 favorites]
Gonna be interesting to see what happens when Ukraine starts retaking LPR/DPR territory. It's been eight years, it will have a different tenor. But the residents there may be more easily swayed after being mismanaged by Russia.
posted by meowzilla at 9:40 AM on September 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by meowzilla at 9:40 AM on September 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
According to intercepted call to a wife of a Lugansk officer one Russian battalion fled 270 km on foot and half of them got captured. The guy also complained his helmet was made in 1945.
Honestly it reminds me of the Soviets breaking the Nazi advance...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 9:44 AM on September 10, 2022 [9 favorites]
Honestly it reminds me of the Soviets breaking the Nazi advance...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 9:44 AM on September 10, 2022 [9 favorites]
270 km on foot is a lot of forced marching, even for well-supplied troops in good condition. Over how many days, supposedly?
posted by Quasirandom at 10:07 AM on September 10, 2022
posted by Quasirandom at 10:07 AM on September 10, 2022
They started on Thursday, so it would make sense that they're still legging it. Can't say I feel much pity for them. Russians have also passed 1000 lost tanks total in the last day.
In other related news, the energy bridge between Ukraine and Poland will be ready in December to export 1000MW to Poland. This is clean atomic energy when Poland is missing its reliance on Russian coal - ask me how idiotic it was to reduce our expensive coal mines without investing in non-coal power plants and heating...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:24 AM on September 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
In other related news, the energy bridge between Ukraine and Poland will be ready in December to export 1000MW to Poland. This is clean atomic energy when Poland is missing its reliance on Russian coal - ask me how idiotic it was to reduce our expensive coal mines without investing in non-coal power plants and heating...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:24 AM on September 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Faytuks News Δ on Twitter
That's citing a UA TV channel. The airport was lost (and destroyed) in the 2014 fighting.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:36 AM on September 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
BREAKING: The Armed Forces of Ukraine entered the Donetsk airport, intelligence sources tell Channel 24
That's citing a UA TV channel. The airport was lost (and destroyed) in the 2014 fighting.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:36 AM on September 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Russian state Twitter has gone back to leaning incredibly hard into the Nazi angle for some reason. 🤔
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:48 AM on September 10, 2022
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:48 AM on September 10, 2022
Grain of salt disclaimer, but:
Today on Russian Telegram, we've seen conspiracy theories of Putin being Jewish, of Putin conspiring with Zelensky to destroy Russia, of Putin being betrayed by the Russian high military command, etc.
These channels are read by millions of Russians, including many soldiers.
posted by Etrigan at 10:50 AM on September 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
Today on Russian Telegram, we've seen conspiracy theories of Putin being Jewish, of Putin conspiring with Zelensky to destroy Russia, of Putin being betrayed by the Russian high military command, etc.
These channels are read by millions of Russians, including many soldiers.
posted by Etrigan at 10:50 AM on September 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
Watching a Ukrainian soldier compare his new Polish-built Krab self-propelled howitzer to a Porsche some days ago, I assumed he meant it was high-quality, precise, and so on. I didn't realize he simply meant it was so damned fast that they'll be driving around eastern Ukraine at Autobahn speeds.
posted by UN at 11:21 AM on September 10, 2022 [17 favorites]
posted by UN at 11:21 AM on September 10, 2022 [17 favorites]
Today on Russian Telegram, we've seen conspiracy theories of Putin being Jewish, of Putin conspiring with Zelensky to destroy Russia, of Putin being betrayed by the Russian high military command, etc.
These channels are read by millions of Russians, including many soldiers.
Oh, well, that always ends really well.
posted by trig at 11:50 AM on September 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
These channels are read by millions of Russians, including many soldiers.
Oh, well, that always ends really well.
posted by trig at 11:50 AM on September 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Ukraine’s southern offensive ‘was designed to trick Russia’, report by Isobel Koshiw, Lorenzo Tondo and Artem Mazhulin for The Guardian. Excerpt:
The much-publicised Ukrainian southern offensive was a disinformation campaign to distract Russia from the real one being prepared in the Kharkiv region, Ukraine’s special forces have said.posted by Kattullus at 12:57 PM on September 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
Ukrainian forces are continuing to make unexpected, rapid advances in the north-east of the country, retaking more than a third of the occupied Kharkiv region in three days. Much of Ukraine’s territorial gains were confirmed by Russia’s defence ministry on Saturday.
“[It] was a big special disinformation operation,” said Taras Berezovets, a former national security adviser turned press officer for the Bohun brigade of Ukraine’s special forces.
“[Russia] thought it would be in the south and moved their equipment. Then, instead of the south, the offensive happened where they least expected, and this caused them to panic and flee.”
Russian tank flees lone Ukrainian Special Forces member, is stopped by a member of the Ukrainian Deciduous Services
posted by echo target at 2:05 PM on September 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by echo target at 2:05 PM on September 10, 2022 [6 favorites]
That’s a better soundtrack than the earlier one with yackity sax. Thanks.
posted by Quasirandom at 2:19 PM on September 10, 2022
posted by Quasirandom at 2:19 PM on September 10, 2022
I have not heard anything further about Moscow. Today was "City Day" and Putin visited some infrastructure, so I am guessing the previous report was overblown / premature.
posted by Meatbomb at 3:05 PM on September 10, 2022
posted by Meatbomb at 3:05 PM on September 10, 2022
Ukrainian law enforcement in Kupyansk is arresting the teachers brought in from Russia for the forced Russification of Ukrainian schools.
"Teachers who came from Russia to teach Ukrainian children were detained in Kupyansk. Well, the academic year will not end for another 15 years," wrote Alexey Goncharenko.posted by ryanrs at 3:14 PM on September 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
China probably getting ready to take advantage of a Russian collapse and send “peacekeeper” to some adjacent regions. IIRC Taiwan still claims Tuva and a few other Russian territories.
posted by interogative mood at 4:18 PM on September 10, 2022
posted by interogative mood at 4:18 PM on September 10, 2022
Not entirely skeptical, but the translations in that "Chinese social media" post read like they were done by twelve-year-old edgelords. Is anyone here actually able to read Chinese, and willing to check how accurate they are, or whether they even are translations in the first place?
posted by Flunkie at 4:31 PM on September 10, 2022
posted by Flunkie at 4:31 PM on September 10, 2022
I imagine China will want to take the Kuril Islands in the event of Russia being unable to hold them, as to prevent them from falling into the hands of a remilitarising Japan.
posted by acb at 4:31 PM on September 10, 2022
posted by acb at 4:31 PM on September 10, 2022
(regardless, my favorite one is "Zhukov looks at the situation and dies of cringe")
posted by Flunkie at 4:32 PM on September 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Flunkie at 4:32 PM on September 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Don't want to derail this thread about Ukraine into discussing China, but there's probably a quality post to be made about China's real estate monetary collapse and what that means for them internally and for the world in general.
posted by hippybear at 4:33 PM on September 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 4:33 PM on September 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
Not entirely skeptical, but the translations in that "Chinese social media" post read like they were done by twelve-year-old edgelords. Is anyone here actually able to read Chinese, and willing to check how accurate they are, or whether they even are translations in the first place?
They post like edgelords because they're specifically trying to bait people into fights. It flushes out dissidents if they're local, picks up new targets to harass, and speaks with an air of authority. Remember the proverbial "never wrestle with a pig – it gets shit all over you and the pig likes it."
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:36 PM on September 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
They post like edgelords because they're specifically trying to bait people into fights. It flushes out dissidents if they're local, picks up new targets to harass, and speaks with an air of authority. Remember the proverbial "never wrestle with a pig – it gets shit all over you and the pig likes it."
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 4:36 PM on September 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
Your Childhood Pet Rock, you're saying that not only do the translations look like they were done by edgelords, but also what was actually written in Chinese looks like it was done by edgelords? To be clear, do you know this?
posted by Flunkie at 5:07 PM on September 10, 2022
posted by Flunkie at 5:07 PM on September 10, 2022
I can only assume the same style is used in Chinese but typically when they're posting in English the wumao speak just like edgelords.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:14 PM on September 10, 2022
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:14 PM on September 10, 2022
That tank hitting the tree is the same one posted up further where a number of Russian soldiers are machine gunned while riding on top of the tank. Not so ha ha ha as you think.
posted by njohnson23 at 6:08 PM on September 10, 2022
posted by njohnson23 at 6:08 PM on September 10, 2022
I thought ruskies won after 1h22min, hows this still going after all these months?
They're farming dungeons
I don't know why that was the Chinese social media bon mot that got me to laugh, but it did.
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 7:11 PM on September 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
They're farming dungeons
I don't know why that was the Chinese social media bon mot that got me to laugh, but it did.
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 7:11 PM on September 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Things have gotten interesting in the big cities.
Russian Lawmakers Who Demanded Putin Be Charged With Treason Summoned By Police
Moscow Municipal Lawmakers Demand Putin's Resignation
Russian Lawmakers Who Demanded Putin Be Charged With Treason Summoned By Police
ST. PETERSBURG, Russia -- Seven lawmakers in Russia's second-largest city, St. Petersburg, have been summoned by the police after they demanded parliament's lower chamber, the State Duma, charge President Vladimir Putin with high treason over his decision to launch the unprovoked invasion of Ukraine.
The seven lawmakers from St. Petersburg's Smolny municipal district received subpoenas via SMS late on September 8 ordering them to come to the police station the next day to fill out protocols on a charge of discrediting Russia's armed forces.
On September 7, the group sent an official letter to the State Duma demanding federal lawmakers initiate the ouster of Putin because, according to them, the ongoing war has damaged Russia's security.
Moscow Municipal Lawmakers Demand Putin's Resignation
Municipal deputies in the Moscow district of Lomonosovsky have appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to resign, saying "everything went wrong" since the start of his second term and they believe a change of power is necessary for the sake of the country.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:19 PM on September 10, 2022 [11 favorites]
The deputies posted their protocol decision on the Lomonosovsky district's website, including a 30-minute video of their meeting on September 8.
In their appeal, the deputies emphasize that the aggressive rhetoric of Putin and his subordinates has thrown Russia back into the Cold War era. They disputed economic data showing a doubling of the country's GDP and said the minimum wage did not increase to the level declared by the government.
Actual political rebellion within Russia is something I hadn't expected quite this early, but yay!
posted by hippybear at 7:22 PM on September 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 7:22 PM on September 10, 2022 [5 favorites]
On September 7, the group sent an official letter to the State Duma demanding federal lawmakers initiate the ouster of Putin because, according to them, the ongoing war has damaged Russia's security.
and
Municipal deputies in the Moscow district of Lomonosovsky have appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to resign
I read as "the common wisdom among the mildly connected is that Putin is going to lose power now, and people want to get markers down for being ahead of the crowd." I can't imagine going on record with "a charge of discrediting Russia's armed forces" without feeling pretty certain that change is coming.
posted by fatbird at 8:02 PM on September 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
and
Municipal deputies in the Moscow district of Lomonosovsky have appealed to Russian President Vladimir Putin to resign
I read as "the common wisdom among the mildly connected is that Putin is going to lose power now, and people want to get markers down for being ahead of the crowd." I can't imagine going on record with "a charge of discrediting Russia's armed forces" without feeling pretty certain that change is coming.
posted by fatbird at 8:02 PM on September 10, 2022 [3 favorites]
That tank hitting the tree is the same one posted up further where a number of Russian soldiers are machine gunned while riding on top of the tank. Not so ha ha ha as you think.
Oof, I specifically skipped that previous link because I didn't want to see that. This one looks ha-ha from a distance but I probably should've suspected. Sorry, folks.
posted by echo target at 9:04 PM on September 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Oof, I specifically skipped that previous link because I didn't want to see that. This one looks ha-ha from a distance but I probably should've suspected. Sorry, folks.
posted by echo target at 9:04 PM on September 10, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ukrainian forces have entered Izyum, while Russians flee in haste.
This follows shortly after retaking Kupyansk, which cut off Russian positions in Izyum from rail resupply.
posted by away for regrooving at 9:11 PM on September 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
This follows shortly after retaking Kupyansk, which cut off Russian positions in Izyum from rail resupply.
posted by away for regrooving at 9:11 PM on September 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
Something I think we cannot reproduce easily in history is recognizing just how angry or frightened people felt back when. Like, it's quite alien to me how the hell the US got into the whole firebombing of Japan stuff, which was actually more disgusting than the actual atom bombs we dropped. But then of course, let alone the two atomic bombs. So now I look at just these last few months, and I can see that I'm worryingly indifferent to Russian pain and suffering against the specter of their invasion of Ukraine. I watch videos of UAVs dropping ordinance on their men, and I think: boom, nice, one less invader. Their soldiers dying for a war they probably did not sign up for… it doesn't phase me. I like it.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 11:16 PM on September 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 11:16 PM on September 10, 2022 [4 favorites]
Russian BMP-3 hit by UAV-dropped munition, as filmed by a soldier on that vehicle.
cw: explosion, serious injuries, first aid, medevac, hospital.
posted by ryanrs at 11:31 PM on September 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
cw: explosion, serious injuries, first aid, medevac, hospital.
posted by ryanrs at 11:31 PM on September 10, 2022 [2 favorites]
Sunflowers Beneath the Snow: I watch videos of UAVs dropping ordinance on their men, and I think: boom, nice, one less invader. Their soldiers dying for a war they probably did not sign up for… it doesn't phase me. I like it.
For those of us not directly affected by the fighting, it’s incumbent on us to remember that everyone involved is a human being. That’s not to say that we can’t make moral judgments, we absolutely should, but we still have to keep in mind that those people we see dying, are people.
posted by Kattullus at 11:36 PM on September 10, 2022 [16 favorites]
For those of us not directly affected by the fighting, it’s incumbent on us to remember that everyone involved is a human being. That’s not to say that we can’t make moral judgments, we absolutely should, but we still have to keep in mind that those people we see dying, are people.
posted by Kattullus at 11:36 PM on September 10, 2022 [16 favorites]
They're people, and I just don't care about their individual outcomes. I think a bunch of them will need to die to make the point, to set this right, to spur the aggressor to not do it again and to leave. The more deaths, the merrier I think. I recognize it's disgusting thinking. Just putting it out there. It surprises me too. Humanity is probably doomed.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 12:47 AM on September 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 12:47 AM on September 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
I was trying to parse my attitude about it the other night, myself. If you show me an individual Russian soldier, who has been fucked over by his leaders, doesn't want to be there, didn't commit any war crimes -- I can feel sorry for that guy. But the Russian army as a collective group? They're the orcs that massacred Bucha, among countless other terrible things, and I won't shed a tear to see their numbers go down.
posted by rifflesby at 12:58 AM on September 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by rifflesby at 12:58 AM on September 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
There will be plenty of bad news from these liberated territories. And every PoW will be "I was lied to, I never shot, I never robbed." For some of them it is true. The people I really want to be found and punished are not the pressganged or kontraktniks, but the internal security units and the local collaborators.
posted by Meatbomb at 1:01 AM on September 11, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by Meatbomb at 1:01 AM on September 11, 2022 [13 favorites]
Eastern European twitter is on fire - it's like the tension of the last few months of stalling all let out at once. Best meme so far: Soldier: "Mr President we have taken the Kremlin!" Zelenskyy: "Crimea, I said Crimea..."
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:43 AM on September 11, 2022 [19 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:43 AM on September 11, 2022 [19 favorites]
The feeling I've had the last months, especially since Bucha, is "is this how it feels to be radicalized?"
I can't really say I like it - my liberal values have taken a beating.
posted by Harald74 at 3:58 AM on September 11, 2022 [13 favorites]
I can't really say I like it - my liberal values have taken a beating.
posted by Harald74 at 3:58 AM on September 11, 2022 [13 favorites]
The war crimes investigators are already moving into the recently liberated territories - I expect them to find a lot to look into, unfortunately.
posted by Harald74 at 3:59 AM on September 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 3:59 AM on September 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
I can't really say I like it - my liberal values have taken a beating.
You know how they say, with mindfulness meditation, that the point isn't to never lose focus, but instead to accept that you're going to lose it again and again and practice bringing it back every time?
I think it's the same with humanity, tolerance, seeing others as human beings.
posted by trig at 4:21 AM on September 11, 2022 [24 favorites]
You know how they say, with mindfulness meditation, that the point isn't to never lose focus, but instead to accept that you're going to lose it again and again and practice bringing it back every time?
I think it's the same with humanity, tolerance, seeing others as human beings.
posted by trig at 4:21 AM on September 11, 2022 [24 favorites]
Also pays to bear in mind who actually holds the power in these situations. There's a reason people can be convicted of murder for ordering (as opposed to personally committing) a murder: moral responsibility belongs to those actually in a position to make a free choice about what to do.
Putin is scum and the world would be objectively better if he were not in it. Same applies to anybody who chose to took advantage of the tactical situation on the ground by raping, torturing or looting. But I doubt that the same could be reasonably asserted about the majority of the Russian Army or indeed any national army, most of whom will have been doing the best they can with the hand they were dealt just like the rest of us.
posted by flabdablet at 5:18 AM on September 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
Putin is scum and the world would be objectively better if he were not in it. Same applies to anybody who chose to took advantage of the tactical situation on the ground by raping, torturing or looting. But I doubt that the same could be reasonably asserted about the majority of the Russian Army or indeed any national army, most of whom will have been doing the best they can with the hand they were dealt just like the rest of us.
posted by flabdablet at 5:18 AM on September 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
Sometimes the only way is to kill some enemy conscripts before they do what they're ordered to.
War is a form of collective temporary insanity, though avoiding it is not always an option. (Do you want a thousand-year Reich? Because that's how you get a thousand-year Reich.)
posted by acb at 5:20 AM on September 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
War is a form of collective temporary insanity, though avoiding it is not always an option. (Do you want a thousand-year Reich? Because that's how you get a thousand-year Reich.)
posted by acb at 5:20 AM on September 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Is it time to think about when it would make sense to lift the sanctions against Russia? For example, if they say the war against Ukraine is over and in fact aren't attacking Ukraine.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 5:27 AM on September 11, 2022
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 5:27 AM on September 11, 2022
Is it time to think about when it would make sense to lift the sanctions against Russia? For example, if they say the war against Ukraine is over and in fact aren't attacking Ukraine.
Nope. Not until all territory is returned and Putin is gone. The whole point of the sanctions are to limit Russia's ability to prosecute a war. Dropping sanctions will see a massive increase in Russia's ability to supply their industries and begin to rearm.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:41 AM on September 11, 2022 [14 favorites]
Nope. Not until all territory is returned and Putin is gone. The whole point of the sanctions are to limit Russia's ability to prosecute a war. Dropping sanctions will see a massive increase in Russia's ability to supply their industries and begin to rearm.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:41 AM on September 11, 2022 [14 favorites]
I wasn't thinking very clearly-- or perhaps not quite writing what was in my mind. I don't think think the fighting in Ukraine will stop until all of the territory conquered by Russia is reclaimed.
It's plausible that having Putin out of office is a good pre-condition, though out of office isn't the same as out of power for him.
I believe the sanctions will kill people-- may have already-- and those people will pretty much be old, young, and/or poor. Or imprisoned. They weren't the people responsible for the war.
I don't think the sanctions should be let hang on longer than necessary, and it may be hard to say how long is necessary, which is why it's worth thinking about.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 5:57 AM on September 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
It's plausible that having Putin out of office is a good pre-condition, though out of office isn't the same as out of power for him.
I believe the sanctions will kill people-- may have already-- and those people will pretty much be old, young, and/or poor. Or imprisoned. They weren't the people responsible for the war.
I don't think the sanctions should be let hang on longer than necessary, and it may be hard to say how long is necessary, which is why it's worth thinking about.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 5:57 AM on September 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
I claim sanctuary: it's like the tension of the last few months of stalling all let out at once
I thought the same about Zelenskyy’s dad joke yesterday, that it was a real moment of tension escaping. For those who didn’t hear it, the joke went something like this.
The Russians are now showing us their best sides: their back sides.
posted by Kattullus at 6:23 AM on September 11, 2022 [10 favorites]
I thought the same about Zelenskyy’s dad joke yesterday, that it was a real moment of tension escaping. For those who didn’t hear it, the joke went something like this.
The Russians are now showing us their best sides: their back sides.
posted by Kattullus at 6:23 AM on September 11, 2022 [10 favorites]
Putin is scum and the world would be objectively better if he were not in it. Same applies to anybody who chose to took advantage of the tactical situation on the ground by raping, torturing or looting. But I doubt that the same could be reasonably asserted about the majority of the Russian Army or indeed any national army, most of whom will have been doing the best they can with the hand they were dealt just like the rest of us.I think I agree in general but this ends in a situation a lot like American police culture where you have to question how much blame to assign to the people who knew this was going on but didn’t stop it. A foot soldier doesn’t have control over the war but I wonder how many will carry shame for looking the other way about the torture, rape, looting for the rest of their lives.
Russia is going to have several generations of broken people and I don’t know what we can do to help, but breaking that cycle seems very important for the future.
posted by adamsc at 6:36 AM on September 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
If I had a say in things:
Once Ukraine regains all of its territories, allow European and other countries to import Russian oil and gas — with a small tax of 100% which goes to Ukraine to rebuild the country. That way Germany, Poland, the Netherlands and Co. get the gas and oil they need while rebuilding the country that was destroyed. The more Russia sells and EU countries buy, the faster Ukraine can rebuild. At that point, they can open up Nordstream II for all I care.
posted by UN at 6:45 AM on September 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Once Ukraine regains all of its territories, allow European and other countries to import Russian oil and gas — with a small tax of 100% which goes to Ukraine to rebuild the country. That way Germany, Poland, the Netherlands and Co. get the gas and oil they need while rebuilding the country that was destroyed. The more Russia sells and EU countries buy, the faster Ukraine can rebuild. At that point, they can open up Nordstream II for all I care.
posted by UN at 6:45 AM on September 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
It seems like the Russians are withdrawing from the whole of Kharkiv oblast, even the occupied areas north of the city and the parts east of the river Oskil.
Probably a reasonable tactical decision, but I didn't think they had it in them.
posted by Harald74 at 6:51 AM on September 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
Probably a reasonable tactical decision, but I didn't think they had it in them.
posted by Harald74 at 6:51 AM on September 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
It might be time to be open to the possibility of entertaining the idea of entering negotiations with Russia to withdraw their forces to the pre-2014 borders and stop killing old, young, poor, and or imprisoned people in Ukraine in exchange for lifting the sanctions. Of course, that's Ukraine's call.
posted by Reverend John at 6:59 AM on September 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 6:59 AM on September 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
A foot soldier doesn’t have control over the war but I wonder how many will carry shame for looking the other way about the torture, rape, looting for the rest of their lives.
Enough that the rest of us would probably better focus our condemnation on those in whose direction those looking the other way chose not to look.
After all of those who actually chose to order and perform atrocities are brought to justice would be the right time to start condemning onlookers. Witnessing an atrocity that one feels powerless to prevent and doing nothing to try to prevent it is mere weakness. Choosing to enact an atrocity is evil. Let us reserve our rage and hatred for evil, not weakness, for all of us are sometimes weak but not all are evil.
And as you correctly imply, the merely weak will most likely already be inflicting worse and longer punishment on themselves than anything anybody else could mete out anyway.
posted by flabdablet at 7:06 AM on September 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
Enough that the rest of us would probably better focus our condemnation on those in whose direction those looking the other way chose not to look.
After all of those who actually chose to order and perform atrocities are brought to justice would be the right time to start condemning onlookers. Witnessing an atrocity that one feels powerless to prevent and doing nothing to try to prevent it is mere weakness. Choosing to enact an atrocity is evil. Let us reserve our rage and hatred for evil, not weakness, for all of us are sometimes weak but not all are evil.
And as you correctly imply, the merely weak will most likely already be inflicting worse and longer punishment on themselves than anything anybody else could mete out anyway.
posted by flabdablet at 7:06 AM on September 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
Zero lessening of sanctions while Russia has an active army in Ukraine territory. Russian forces hold large swaths of Ukraine industrial and coastal areas. They are perfectly willing to wage economic warfare and starvation tactics against civilians. The sanctions have value and reason. They are far from merely punitive. Making average citizens of Russia look at consequences of their unjust war lessens support for it. And the sanctions are definitely lowering Russian military capabilities.
If both sides want to to negotiate a 2014 agreement, fine. But the very first step is Russia pulling their armies out of occupied and ravaged territory. Russian forces have shown absolutely no sign of any good faith attempts to end the war. None. The leaders are still talking like they can win.
posted by Jacen at 7:39 AM on September 11, 2022 [12 favorites]
If both sides want to to negotiate a 2014 agreement, fine. But the very first step is Russia pulling their armies out of occupied and ravaged territory. Russian forces have shown absolutely no sign of any good faith attempts to end the war. None. The leaders are still talking like they can win.
posted by Jacen at 7:39 AM on September 11, 2022 [12 favorites]
I would say sanctions should not be lifted until the people taken from Ukraine to Russia are returned.
But, the United States is not able to do this for people it kidnapped, so we cannot claim the high ground.
However, the United States is not the sole arbiter on sanctions. Perhaps sanctions could be lifted by degrees - so much for returning to 2014 borders, so much more for returning x percentage of kidnapped people.
posted by rochrobbb at 7:58 AM on September 11, 2022
But, the United States is not able to do this for people it kidnapped, so we cannot claim the high ground.
However, the United States is not the sole arbiter on sanctions. Perhaps sanctions could be lifted by degrees - so much for returning to 2014 borders, so much more for returning x percentage of kidnapped people.
posted by rochrobbb at 7:58 AM on September 11, 2022
Or some flat value of dollars for each person returned, independent of sanctions.
posted by rochrobbb at 8:01 AM on September 11, 2022
posted by rochrobbb at 8:01 AM on September 11, 2022
I believe the sanctions will kill people-- may have already-- and those people will pretty much be old, young, and/or poor. Or imprisoned. They weren't the people responsible for the war.
The blood of the dead is on Putin. The people of the country he invaded (8 years ago and has made a more concerted effort now), the soldiers he sent and his own citizens who are suffering consequences.
Sanctions aren't killing people. Putin aggressively trying to take land is. Sanctions are the mildest, most non-violent action the US has taken in such a conflict in my lifetime. (I am excluding other countries, because I don't know their history.)
Does it suck that Russians are dying? Of course.
But, sanctions were put in place because Russia attacked Ukraine and was already killing their citizens.
If I am reading your position correctly, it is "do not bring death on those who are pawns." Those who have no choice in the matter. And, again, I would hasten to say Ukrainians are suffering fewer deaths to their old/young/poor because of sanctions to an invading country.
tl;dr - sanctions suck. war sucks more.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 8:21 AM on September 11, 2022 [18 favorites]
The blood of the dead is on Putin. The people of the country he invaded (8 years ago and has made a more concerted effort now), the soldiers he sent and his own citizens who are suffering consequences.
Sanctions aren't killing people. Putin aggressively trying to take land is. Sanctions are the mildest, most non-violent action the US has taken in such a conflict in my lifetime. (I am excluding other countries, because I don't know their history.)
Does it suck that Russians are dying? Of course.
But, sanctions were put in place because Russia attacked Ukraine and was already killing their citizens.
If I am reading your position correctly, it is "do not bring death on those who are pawns." Those who have no choice in the matter. And, again, I would hasten to say Ukrainians are suffering fewer deaths to their old/young/poor because of sanctions to an invading country.
tl;dr - sanctions suck. war sucks more.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 8:21 AM on September 11, 2022 [18 favorites]
Meduza journalist Eilish Hart reports:
posted by Kattullus at 8:26 AM on September 11, 2022 [9 favorites]
Sources close to the Kremlin tell @meduzaproject that plans to stage sham referendums in Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely in light of Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region.If this is correct, this is very good news, not only because of the fig leaf the sham referendum would provide, but because they would've been certainly preceded and followed by harsh repression by occupying forces.
posted by Kattullus at 8:26 AM on September 11, 2022 [9 favorites]
My position is more like avoid killing more pawns than necessary.
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 8:39 AM on September 11, 2022
posted by Nancy Lebovitz at 8:39 AM on September 11, 2022
Ukraine's Zaporizhzhia nuclear power plant halts operations
Sept 11 (Reuters) - Operations at the Russian-held Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Plant in Ukraine have been fully stopped as a safety measure, Energoatom, the state agency in charge of the plant, said on Sunday.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:46 AM on September 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
The plant "is completely stopped" after the agency disconnected the number 6 power unit from the grid at 3:41 a.m. (0041 GMT), it said in a statement. "Preparations are underway for its cooling and transfer to a cold state."
My position is more like avoid killing more pawns than necessary.
Agreed. I struggled with how to respond to your comment because I agree so wholeheartedly. The number of pawns who have died should be exactly ZERO. It is absolutely infuriating that people are dying in this war that has no cause.
In this particular war, I think sanctions minimize the amount of deaths. For Russians and Ukrainians, both.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 9:26 AM on September 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
Agreed. I struggled with how to respond to your comment because I agree so wholeheartedly. The number of pawns who have died should be exactly ZERO. It is absolutely infuriating that people are dying in this war that has no cause.
In this particular war, I think sanctions minimize the amount of deaths. For Russians and Ukrainians, both.
posted by a non mouse, a cow herd at 9:26 AM on September 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
Jimmy on Twitter
Includes short video of two tractors moving a tank down a road.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:11 AM on September 11, 2022 [8 favorites]
The tractors are back!!! 🇺🇦🚜
Includes short video of two tractors moving a tank down a road.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:11 AM on September 11, 2022 [8 favorites]
Von Clausewitz is often reduced to the sentiment War is the extension of politics by other means. But he rejected the Prussian bellicosity that used his quote as an excuse for war.
More specifically, VC wrote War is nothing but a duel on an extensive scale… an act of violence intended to compel our opponent to fulfill our will.That will is expressed via a nation-state’s morality and political goals.
Right now, Ukraine’s will is that Russia leave Ukraine’s territory, return their stolen people, and cease prosecuting the war started by Russia. That is both their political and moral goal.
And until the Russian will to continue the war is broken, the killing and destruction goes on.
It’s a noble sentiment to aspire “kill a few pawns as possible”.
I myself am named after a man who took his whole
family and most of the village into the mountains and fought a guerrilla war against the Japanese in the mid 1900s. And the Japanese brought a fair bit of suffering and horror to the Philippines.
We’re some of them pawns? probably. But that doesn’t matter.
You have to shoot the invaders until their collective will is broken and they surrender and enact your will.
Running away from the front is simply retreating in order to regroup. As long as they remain in your territory under arms, invaders of all ranks are a legitimate target.
As long as the invader fears being punished by their commanders for surrendering more than they fear getting shot by the people fighting for their country’s very existence, the war goes on.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 10:23 AM on September 11, 2022 [19 favorites]
More specifically, VC wrote War is nothing but a duel on an extensive scale… an act of violence intended to compel our opponent to fulfill our will.That will is expressed via a nation-state’s morality and political goals.
Right now, Ukraine’s will is that Russia leave Ukraine’s territory, return their stolen people, and cease prosecuting the war started by Russia. That is both their political and moral goal.
And until the Russian will to continue the war is broken, the killing and destruction goes on.
It’s a noble sentiment to aspire “kill a few pawns as possible”.
I myself am named after a man who took his whole
family and most of the village into the mountains and fought a guerrilla war against the Japanese in the mid 1900s. And the Japanese brought a fair bit of suffering and horror to the Philippines.
We’re some of them pawns? probably. But that doesn’t matter.
You have to shoot the invaders until their collective will is broken and they surrender and enact your will.
Running away from the front is simply retreating in order to regroup. As long as they remain in your territory under arms, invaders of all ranks are a legitimate target.
As long as the invader fears being punished by their commanders for surrendering more than they fear getting shot by the people fighting for their country’s very existence, the war goes on.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 10:23 AM on September 11, 2022 [19 favorites]
Or some flat value of dollars for each person returned, independent of sanctions.
If kidnapped people are a revenue stream, RF will kidnap more people.
I believe the sanctions will kill people-- may have already-- and those people will pretty much be old, young, and/or poor.
RF gets to choose what to spend its oil money on.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 10:26 AM on September 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
If kidnapped people are a revenue stream, RF will kidnap more people.
I believe the sanctions will kill people-- may have already-- and those people will pretty much be old, young, and/or poor.
RF gets to choose what to spend its oil money on.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 10:26 AM on September 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
If kidnapped people are a revenue stream, RF will kidnap more people.
It is wrong to put temptation in the path of any nation,
For fear they should succumb and go astray;
So when you are requested to pay up or be molested,
You will find it better policy to say: --
"We never pay any-one Dane-geld,
No matter how trifling the cost;
For the end of that game is oppression and shame,
And the nation that pays it is lost!"
--- Kipling, Dane-Geld
posted by SPrintF at 10:44 AM on September 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
It is wrong to put temptation in the path of any nation,
For fear they should succumb and go astray;
So when you are requested to pay up or be molested,
You will find it better policy to say: --
"We never pay any-one Dane-geld,
No matter how trifling the cost;
For the end of that game is oppression and shame,
And the nation that pays it is lost!"
--- Kipling, Dane-Geld
posted by SPrintF at 10:44 AM on September 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
Due to the continuing Ukrainian Army Blitzkrieg offensive, the "Citizens" of the (so-called) Luhansk and Donetsk republics (Russian-occupied) are evacuating and crowding roads to the Russian border: to discover they're being refused entry into Russia. Many carrying freshly issued Russian passports.
Useful idiots now not so useful anymore.
posted by Meatbomb at 10:53 AM on September 11, 2022 [12 favorites]
Useful idiots now not so useful anymore.
posted by Meatbomb at 10:53 AM on September 11, 2022 [12 favorites]
Izium has been fully taken, as confirmed by an officer with the most adorable Pikachu pin. From a country that hasn't been doing much fighting in decades apart from involvement in ill-advised American ventures that didn't get much footage in the country, it's amazing how very Millennial these soldiers are.
And there's a 12 km queue on the border crossing between Lugansk and Russia apparently. While the Ukrainian army has reached Hoptivka in Kharkiv oblast, officially hitting the Russian border.
Lavrov is making noises about restarting armistice talks, if you need more proof it's going badly for the Russians.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:55 AM on September 11, 2022 [8 favorites]
And there's a 12 km queue on the border crossing between Lugansk and Russia apparently. While the Ukrainian army has reached Hoptivka in Kharkiv oblast, officially hitting the Russian border.
Lavrov is making noises about restarting armistice talks, if you need more proof it's going badly for the Russians.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:55 AM on September 11, 2022 [8 favorites]
Maria Avdeeva on Twitter
ТРУХА⚡️English on Twitter
‼️ Total blackout in Kharkiv. Also no water supply because pumps are disconnected from electricity. Strikes on critical infrastructure facilities reported. Terrorist country uses new tactics.
Image
After this outbreak, the light went out in many regions, where exactly:posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:39 AM on September 11, 2022
▪️Poltava region.
▪️Sumy region.
▪️Kharkiv region.
▪️Dnipropetrovsk region.
▪️Odesa region, partially.
▪️Donetsk region.
Russian Federation began to hit the critical infrastructure
Useful idiots now not so useful anymore.
The trouble is, they are contaminated with defeatism now. They have had nothing but misery for the last year.
posted by Bee'sWing at 11:47 AM on September 11, 2022
The trouble is, they are contaminated with defeatism now. They have had nothing but misery for the last year.
posted by Bee'sWing at 11:47 AM on September 11, 2022
Niki Proshin spends 10 minutes from earlier today showing what Russian State Media is telling about Ukraine and the new counteroffensive.
posted by hippybear at 12:26 PM on September 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 12:26 PM on September 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
Sources close to the Kremlin tell @meduzaproject that plans to stage sham referendums in Russian-occupied territories of Ukraine have been postponed indefinitely in light of Ukraine’s successful counteroffensive in the Kharkiv region.I really don't get this. I mean, not this specifically in an absolute sense, but in general; I've felt this way for months:
It seems like we've been constantly seeing "Russia has decided to postpone its (date-number-one) referendum in (some-place) until (date-number-two), for (some-reason)", followed in a week or two by "Russia has decided to postpone its (date-number-two) referendum in (that-same-place) until (date-number-three), for (some-other-reason)". Followed in a week or two by (date-number-four), then (date-number-five), then....
Why not just do it? I mean, the announcement. Why even bother to hold any significant physical aspects of such a referendum, only to say that "Yes, annex us please" won by a margin of 74%, with a voter turnout rate of 93%? Is there anyone on earth who would consider that valid -- or even anyone who would consider it invalid -- who wouldn't also have the exact same opinion of the exact same claim valid even if unaccompanied by significant numbers of people demonstrably having dipped their fingers in purple dye?
Even for people in Russia who, in a world without overwhelming propaganda, might have different opinions on one versus the other, are living in a world with overwhelming propaganda. It's easy for the state media to say "This happened", "Here is lots of video of lots of people voting", "What a great day for the people of Ukraine", blah blah blah.
posted by Flunkie at 1:00 PM on September 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
Military analyst Michael Kofman was interviewed yesterday by Dmitri Alperovitch on a Twitter Space, and it’s now been published in podcast form. Kofman goes over the Kharkiv and Kherson offensives, and puts both in context with each other, and the larger war. Twitter user Jomini of the West has put together a good map of the Kharkiv offensive, which is helpful for understanding the geography and movement of forces.
posted by Kattullus at 1:25 PM on September 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Kattullus at 1:25 PM on September 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
Oh, and Shashank Joshi, defence editor at the Economist, wrote up the main points Kofman said in a Twitter thread, but the whole interview is worth a listen.
posted by Kattullus at 1:27 PM on September 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Kattullus at 1:27 PM on September 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
Why not just do it? I mean, the announcement. Why even bother to hold any significant physical aspects of such a referendum, only to say that "Yes, annex us please" won by a margin of 74%, with a voter turnout rate of 93%? Is there anyone on earth who would consider that valid -- or even anyone who would consider it invalid -- who wouldn't also have the exact same opinion of the exact same claim valid even if unaccompanied by significant numbers of people demonstrably having dipped their fingers in purple dye?
Because once annexed it becomes, at least within Russia's political world, Russian soil. If DPR and LPR were annexed and Ukraine walks over the border in Russia's political world it goes from a special military operation to existential threat to Russia itself. At that point all hell breaks loose in the Russian political sphere as Putin needs to defend "Russian" territory and all of a sudden hypothetical red lines on nukes become tangible questions of strategy. Those same strategic choices are also red lines for the West as any nuclear device, even if Russians decide to say blow a tac nuke over empty forest in the Donbass as a warning, would provoke economic and political upheaval within the West and have consequences that would make the sanctions placed on Russia so far look quaint.
So Putin maintains annexation in his back pocket by perpetually delaying rather than making the job of keeping Russian political wolves at bay even more difficult.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:44 PM on September 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Because once annexed it becomes, at least within Russia's political world, Russian soil. If DPR and LPR were annexed and Ukraine walks over the border in Russia's political world it goes from a special military operation to existential threat to Russia itself. At that point all hell breaks loose in the Russian political sphere as Putin needs to defend "Russian" territory and all of a sudden hypothetical red lines on nukes become tangible questions of strategy. Those same strategic choices are also red lines for the West as any nuclear device, even if Russians decide to say blow a tac nuke over empty forest in the Donbass as a warning, would provoke economic and political upheaval within the West and have consequences that would make the sanctions placed on Russia so far look quaint.
So Putin maintains annexation in his back pocket by perpetually delaying rather than making the job of keeping Russian political wolves at bay even more difficult.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:44 PM on September 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
Why not just do it? I mean, the announcement. Why even bother to hold any significant physical aspects of such a referendum, only to say that "Yes, annex us please" won by a margin of 74%, with a voter turnout rate of 93%? Is there anyone on earth who would consider that valid -- or even anyone who would consider it invalid -- who wouldn't also have the exact same opinion of the exact same claim valid even if unaccompanied by significant numbers of people demonstrably having dipped their fingers in purple dye?
I'm in the middle of reading this article about Orban's regime in Hungary now, and one of the points it makes is how effective it is to maintain a veneer of traditional and democratic institutions, but without actually deferring to them:
Putin's regime has similarities in terms of using subverting existing institutions and norms for authoritarian ends, and they were hoping for that slight appearance of legitimacy from a bogus referendum. Denying them that is a great consequence of the ongoing advances by the Ukrainian forces.
posted by Dip Flash at 1:47 PM on September 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
I'm in the middle of reading this article about Orban's regime in Hungary now, and one of the points it makes is how effective it is to maintain a veneer of traditional and democratic institutions, but without actually deferring to them:
“Orbán has managed to preserve the appearance of formal democracy, as long as you don’t look too closely,” Anna Grzymala-Busse, the director of the Europe Center at Stanford, told me. Since 2010, most of Hungary’s civic institutions—the courts, the universities, the systems for administering elections—have come to occupy a gray area. They haven’t been eradicated; instead, they’ve been patiently debilitated, delegitimatized, hollowed out. There are still judges who wear robes, but if Orbán finds their decisions too onerous he can appeal to friendlier courts. ... There are still elections, yet international observers consider them “free but not fair”: radically gerrymandered, flush with undisclosed infusions of dark money. ... Scheppele contends that Orbán has pulled this off not by breaking laws but by ingeniously manipulating them, in what she calls a “constitutional coup.” She added, “He’s very smart and methodical. First, he changes the laws to give himself permission to do what he wants, and then he does it.”
Putin's regime has similarities in terms of using subverting existing institutions and norms for authoritarian ends, and they were hoping for that slight appearance of legitimacy from a bogus referendum. Denying them that is a great consequence of the ongoing advances by the Ukrainian forces.
posted by Dip Flash at 1:47 PM on September 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
They haven’t been eradicated; instead, they’ve been patiently debilitated, delegitimatized, hollowed out. There are still judges who wear robes, but if Orbán finds their decisions too onerous he can appeal to friendlier courts. ... There are still elections, yet international observers consider them “free but not fair”: radically gerrymandered, flush with undisclosed infusions of dark money. ... Scheppele contends that Orbán has pulled this off not by breaking laws but by ingeniously manipulating them, in what she calls a “constitutional coup.” She added, “He’s very smart and methodical. First, he changes the laws to give himself permission to do what he wants, and then he does it.”
The application and extrapolation of this analysis by American MeFites to domestic affairs... is an exercise that is best left for another thread.
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 2:26 PM on September 11, 2022 [13 favorites]
The application and extrapolation of this analysis by American MeFites to domestic affairs... is an exercise that is best left for another thread.
posted by The Pluto Gangsta at 2:26 PM on September 11, 2022 [13 favorites]
It sounds like Russia is pulling out of the Kharkiv Oblast and the north. They will try to setup a defensive position in the remaining areas, including Kherson and hope they can make it to the fall mud season in a few weeks and then have the winter to rearm, re-equip and come up with a new plan.
posted by interogative mood at 2:55 PM on September 11, 2022
posted by interogative mood at 2:55 PM on September 11, 2022
Their new plan is gonna be to try the same things that didn't work before only harder.
posted by Justinian at 4:59 PM on September 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Justinian at 4:59 PM on September 11, 2022 [4 favorites]
Interesting discussion on Russian TV. There seems to be a growing willingness to talk a bout this as a failure.
posted by interogative mood at 5:57 PM on September 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 5:57 PM on September 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
ISW has updated their maps.... Izyum and all the way north to the border are all marked Ukraine territory again! It looks like Kharkiv is completely free of Russian troops. This is spectacular. I'm not surprised that Russia collapsed so spectacularly, but I am elated.
posted by Jacen at 6:56 PM on September 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Jacen at 6:56 PM on September 11, 2022 [5 favorites]
Unless I'm missing something, that's yesterday's map. I guess they published it (and the summary article it's from) sometime today -- I kept looking for it yesterday, into the early American AM -- but usually they do that on the day itself, so I'd bet that there's going to be another update for today specifically, hopefully with even more new blue.
posted by Flunkie at 7:02 PM on September 11, 2022
posted by Flunkie at 7:02 PM on September 11, 2022
Sorry, forgot to link
the tweet.
Absolutely from Sunday evening with their latest.
posted by Jacen at 7:08 PM on September 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
the tweet.
Absolutely from Sunday evening with their latest.
posted by Jacen at 7:08 PM on September 11, 2022 [3 favorites]
Huh, they haven't updated their website with the article or map (or at least hadn't, at the time I wrote my last comment, don't know about now because their website frequently times out for me...). The map in Twitter is new, yeah. Thanks!
posted by Flunkie at 7:11 PM on September 11, 2022
posted by Flunkie at 7:11 PM on September 11, 2022
(and it does in fact have more blue :) )
posted by Flunkie at 7:12 PM on September 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Flunkie at 7:12 PM on September 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
During this counter-offensive, I’ve found the ISW website times out a lot. And yeah, they tweet summaries quite some time before the full report appears on the website.
posted by Quasirandom at 7:14 PM on September 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Quasirandom at 7:14 PM on September 11, 2022 [1 favorite]
I do hope that the International criminal court investigations are proceeding in kind, and well funded
I know that there is broader support for the ICC, since we missed previous opportunities for justice in the run up for 2014
posted by eustatic at 7:22 PM on September 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
I know that there is broader support for the ICC, since we missed previous opportunities for justice in the run up for 2014
posted by eustatic at 7:22 PM on September 11, 2022 [2 favorites]
and by that I mean, it would serve to boost the efforts for peace if investigators are able to work quickly, while Russians are at a moment of political rupture...
this article spells out some of the pitfalls in support from the US.
this article was educational for me in outlining the gap between the needs and the existing funds
posted by eustatic at 7:30 PM on September 11, 2022
this article spells out some of the pitfalls in support from the US.
this article was educational for me in outlining the gap between the needs and the existing funds
posted by eustatic at 7:30 PM on September 11, 2022
Why even bother to hold any significant physical aspects of such a referendum, ...
The referendum is the foundation myth that supports every lie that's built on top of it. The Z's are pulling every magic trick from the Stalin days and, to some extent, it's just muscle memory. They want true believers (think of the crying woman in the Crimean taxi) to go into an administrative office, mark down their да, come home and tell all their friends, children and most-hated neighbors all about it. Every day. For the next 50 years.
They know what works.
[In addition to the other good answers above]
posted by UN at 12:51 AM on September 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
The referendum is the foundation myth that supports every lie that's built on top of it. The Z's are pulling every magic trick from the Stalin days and, to some extent, it's just muscle memory. They want true believers (think of the crying woman in the Crimean taxi) to go into an administrative office, mark down their да, come home and tell all their friends, children and most-hated neighbors all about it. Every day. For the next 50 years.
They know what works.
[In addition to the other good answers above]
posted by UN at 12:51 AM on September 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
Russian forces on the Kherson frontline are reportedly trying to negotiate the surrender of their weapons, according to Operation South.
Twitter thread on the collapse in Russian morale along the frontline.
posted by rory at 1:42 AM on September 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
Twitter thread on the collapse in Russian morale along the frontline.
posted by rory at 1:42 AM on September 12, 2022 [8 favorites]
I liked this excerpt from Zelensky's speech last night.
posted by Harald74 at 2:25 AM on September 12, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 2:25 AM on September 12, 2022 [13 favorites]
The plant "is completely stopped" after the agency disconnected the number 6 power unit from the grid at 3:41 a.m. (0041 GMT), it said in a statement. "Preparations are underway for its cooling and transfer to a cold state."
Up to now, the plant operators had taken the difficult decision to keep one reactor online in order to ensure that they kept AC power for cooling the other five units even while disconnected from the external power grid.
A light water reactor right after shutdown produces 6.5% its pre-shutdown power and then:
10 seconds after shutdown: 5%
1 hour after shutdown: 1.2%
1 day after shutdown: 0.5%
30 days after shutdown: 0.2%
I understand that they've been running the last unit at much less than rated power for weeks now. The longer that's been true, the lower that curve is (the above numbers are for a reactor that has been running for months and has reached a state of equilibrium).
They've had three options for providing cooling for all the reactors and their spent fuel pools.
1) Onsite power from a working reactor
2) Backup diesel generators
3) The main grid
Since (3) has been unreliable and (2) has limited fuel which could potentially run-out and be unable to be replenished, they've kept one unit running at partial power to ensure cooling power but that's a difficult choice to make because as long as that reactor isn't shut-down, the decay heat isn't going down and the consequences of damage to it aren't either. A reactor might take days to boil-off so much water that its fuel is uncovered and starts to melt if it's been offline for a few weeks. A loss of cooling right after shutdown can lead to meltdown in hours.
It looks like they've got the other reactors far enough towards cold shutdown (won't melt-down even if cooling power lost) and have taken the decision that they should use what time they have left of reliable grid power to get this reactor cooled using external AC power.
re: Chinese social media. It's important to consider the social role that the Russians (traditional Chinese enemies rather than allies) have played because it's the same as they play in the popular eye in the Arab world (from personal experience) and in other places that are not part of the Western Alliance system (apparently).
If you're on the outside of that system, its dominance of the last century or so - both in general and as applied to conflicts with your own "side" - is irritating and you will naturally have some kind of affinity with counter-poles to that system even if those counter-poles have themselves fought against you. That only applies if they're genuinely an alternative though. Russia as pathetic losers don't have an iconic role as alternative to American-led hegemony.
posted by atrazine at 6:42 AM on September 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
Up to now, the plant operators had taken the difficult decision to keep one reactor online in order to ensure that they kept AC power for cooling the other five units even while disconnected from the external power grid.
A light water reactor right after shutdown produces 6.5% its pre-shutdown power and then:
10 seconds after shutdown: 5%
1 hour after shutdown: 1.2%
1 day after shutdown: 0.5%
30 days after shutdown: 0.2%
I understand that they've been running the last unit at much less than rated power for weeks now. The longer that's been true, the lower that curve is (the above numbers are for a reactor that has been running for months and has reached a state of equilibrium).
They've had three options for providing cooling for all the reactors and their spent fuel pools.
1) Onsite power from a working reactor
2) Backup diesel generators
3) The main grid
Since (3) has been unreliable and (2) has limited fuel which could potentially run-out and be unable to be replenished, they've kept one unit running at partial power to ensure cooling power but that's a difficult choice to make because as long as that reactor isn't shut-down, the decay heat isn't going down and the consequences of damage to it aren't either. A reactor might take days to boil-off so much water that its fuel is uncovered and starts to melt if it's been offline for a few weeks. A loss of cooling right after shutdown can lead to meltdown in hours.
It looks like they've got the other reactors far enough towards cold shutdown (won't melt-down even if cooling power lost) and have taken the decision that they should use what time they have left of reliable grid power to get this reactor cooled using external AC power.
re: Chinese social media. It's important to consider the social role that the Russians (traditional Chinese enemies rather than allies) have played because it's the same as they play in the popular eye in the Arab world (from personal experience) and in other places that are not part of the Western Alliance system (apparently).
If you're on the outside of that system, its dominance of the last century or so - both in general and as applied to conflicts with your own "side" - is irritating and you will naturally have some kind of affinity with counter-poles to that system even if those counter-poles have themselves fought against you. That only applies if they're genuinely an alternative though. Russia as pathetic losers don't have an iconic role as alternative to American-led hegemony.
posted by atrazine at 6:42 AM on September 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
Does the plant have the same issue with its spent fuel pools that US and other plants do (as discussed during and after Fukushima)? i.e., overfilled to the point that they require active circulation of water with boron dissolved in it?
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:53 AM on September 12, 2022
posted by snuffleupagus at 7:53 AM on September 12, 2022
Euromaidan Press on Twitter
Apparently east Kharkiv city has power & water, and the metro is back online.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:34 AM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Yday Russia attacked Zmiyiv power plant in Kharkiv & 3 high voltage substations by missiles, causing a blackout in 40 substations & 4 regions
The main lines were repaired in 4 hours, 17000 ppl still waiting for electricity, energy minister said on details https://facebook.com/german.galushchenko/posts/...
Apparently east Kharkiv city has power & water, and the metro is back online.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:34 AM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Retreat tantrum.
posted by Reverend John at 10:00 AM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Reverend John at 10:00 AM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
snuffleupagus,
I'm not sure but I think less so. Most VVER's use the same loose fuel pool configuration for which Western reactors were originally designed, it was only the desire not to have to put fuel in dry casks on-site which led to the dense fuel racking configuration in the US and elsewhere and I think that dry casking early is the preferred VVER operator choice (as it should be elsewhere, it's much safer).
posted by atrazine at 10:09 AM on September 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'm not sure but I think less so. Most VVER's use the same loose fuel pool configuration for which Western reactors were originally designed, it was only the desire not to have to put fuel in dry casks on-site which led to the dense fuel racking configuration in the US and elsewhere and I think that dry casking early is the preferred VVER operator choice (as it should be elsewhere, it's much safer).
posted by atrazine at 10:09 AM on September 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
The rumors on Twitter of a (mass) surrender in Kherson are getting louder and louder.
posted by 1970s Antihero at 11:04 AM on September 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by 1970s Antihero at 11:04 AM on September 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
On a lighter note:
Fmr. US Marine in UA Issac | Исcак on Twitter
"Blyat" is an all-purpose expletive. Speaking of:
Media Matters' Matthew Gertz on Twitter
Fmr. US Marine in UA Issac | Исcак on Twitter
Blyatskrieg!
A new type of offensive is underway, pioneered by the Ukranian AF: Not my word. I heard it somewhere.
"Blyat" is an all-purpose expletive. Speaking of:
Media Matters' Matthew Gertz on Twitter
Tucker Carlson's top Russia-Ukraine war expert Douglas MacGregor, on Friday night: "This entire war may be over" soon, "right now things are going very, very badly" for the Ukrainians and they're "desperate," "they're losing once again just south of Kharkiv."posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:06 AM on September 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
[Video]
During this counter-offensive, I’ve found the ISW website times out a lot. And yeah, they tweet summaries quite some time before the full report appears on the website.
I'm thinking more like Russian denial of service attacks on any site showing Ukrainian successes.
posted by meowzilla at 11:15 AM on September 12, 2022
I'm thinking more like Russian denial of service attacks on any site showing Ukrainian successes.
posted by meowzilla at 11:15 AM on September 12, 2022
The surrender talk has to be just information warfare, right? You wouldn't leak something like that until it was done; doing so gives the political officers a chance to crack down.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 11:43 AM on September 12, 2022
posted by a robot made out of meat at 11:43 AM on September 12, 2022
War Studies Professor Lawrence Freedman had a good post, a couple of days ago, about the Kharkiv offensive. Excerpt:
As with bankruptcy so with military defeat. What appears to be a long, painful grind can quickly turn into a rout. A supposedly resilient and well-equipped army can break and look for means of escape. This is not unusual in war. We saw it happen with the Afghan Army in the summer of 2021.posted by Kattullus at 11:59 AM on September 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
For the past few days we have been witnessing a remarkable Ukrainian offensive in Kharkiv. We have the spectacle of a bedraggled army in retreat - remnants of a smashed-up convoy, abandoned vehicles, positions left in a hurry, with scattered kit and uneaten food, miserable prisoners, and local people cheering on the Ukrainian forces as they drive through their villages. The speed of advance has been impressive, as tens of square kilometres turn into hundreds and then thousands, and from a handful of villages and towns liberated to dozens. Even as I have been writing this post paragraphs keep on getting overtaken by events.
It would of course be premature to pronounce a complete Ukrainian victory in the war because of one successful and unexpected breakthrough. But what has happened over the past few days is of historic importance. This offensive has overturned much of what was confidently assumed about the course of the war. It serves as a reminder that just because the front lines appear static it does not mean that they will stay that way, and that morale and motivation drain away from armies facing defeat, especially when the troops are uncertain about the cause for which they are fighting and have lost confidence in their officers. Who wants to be a martyr when the war is already lost?
A report of the unbelievably sorry state of the Moskva at the time it was sunk. From the country that came up with the Potemkin village.
posted by Bee'sWing at 12:12 PM on September 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Bee'sWing at 12:12 PM on September 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
Wow, apparently they couldn't use their missile detection radar and their satellite communications at the same time, so they mostly kept the radar off. I wonder how much Ukraine knew before they decided to take a swing at it.
posted by echo target at 12:42 PM on September 12, 2022
posted by echo target at 12:42 PM on September 12, 2022
The key bit for me from that video above was that a full maintenance report on the Moskva from just a couple weeks before the war started was recently leaked. It was in such disrepair as to be no surprise at all that those two Neptune missiles were able to both get through and sink it:
posted by bcd at 12:44 PM on September 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
- the radar had to be off in order to use the communications systems,
- only a small fraction of the defensive weapons system were operational,
- less than a tenth the spec'd number of fire extinguishers on board,
- they were locked up to prevent theft,
- many of the doors that should have kept separate compartments water tight were blocked open or leaked.
posted by bcd at 12:44 PM on September 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
Every new reveal like this makes me more certain that the Russians just don't have any functioning nuclear weapons any more. What could possibly be a juicer target for budget theft than the extremely expensive maintenance on the weapons that are supposed to never ever be used
posted by rifflesby at 12:56 PM on September 12, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by rifflesby at 12:56 PM on September 12, 2022 [11 favorites]
Harald74: It would be a logistical challenge, but I keep thinking of the 100 tank transporters Germany donated months ago, that did not get much press but probably have been quite important for Ukraine.
They're not just for getting Ukrainian tanks to the front.
Although it's also worthwhile to add cans of spray paint to your soldiers' armament.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:03 PM on September 12, 2022
They're not just for getting Ukrainian tanks to the front.
Although it's also worthwhile to add cans of spray paint to your soldiers' armament.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:03 PM on September 12, 2022
heads-up that Bee'sWing's video link contains that dreadful modern youth-y youtube style of bullshit-ass infotainment non sequitur whatever, i can't even describe it just that modern shit. i made it about a minute before the narrator was imploring me that all i needed to do was shower and i too could get laid. fucking monetization, man.
(sorry Bee'sWing no hard feelings)
posted by glonous keming at 1:08 PM on September 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
(sorry Bee'sWing no hard feelings)
posted by glonous keming at 1:08 PM on September 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
Is there a semi credible source for that maintenance report? It showed up on twitter afaik and that’s it.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 1:09 PM on September 12, 2022
posted by a robot made out of meat at 1:09 PM on September 12, 2022
The YT video included a couple of links in the description:
Moskva maintenance report (Russian)
Moskva maintenance report (awkward machine translation)
The auto translated version is full of nonsensical things that sound like direct translations of military idioms or technical terminology. I found it mostly unintelligible, but some parts are fairly clear, including the bit about the radar.
No idea where these documents come from, though, so maybe don't take it too seriously.
posted by echo target at 1:35 PM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Moskva maintenance report (Russian)
Moskva maintenance report (awkward machine translation)
The auto translated version is full of nonsensical things that sound like direct translations of military idioms or technical terminology. I found it mostly unintelligible, but some parts are fairly clear, including the bit about the radar.
No idea where these documents come from, though, so maybe don't take it too seriously.
posted by echo target at 1:35 PM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
During the period when Russia was retreating from the Kiev offensive, there was a bit of discussion on Twitter about whether or not it could be considered a rout. Apparently in military parlance, "rout" is a term of art and what was observed in the Kiev retreat was not quite as messy or chaotic as you'd expect from a classic rout. However, given what's been observed in the Kharkiv region, there doesn't seem to be the same kind of disagreement. Aside from the sheer masses of vehicles, equipment, and ammo being left behind, apparently the Russians haven't even been placing mines or booby traps in the wake of their retreats, which I believe they were able to do during the Kiev retreat.
posted by mhum at 2:40 PM on September 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by mhum at 2:40 PM on September 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
Ukraine war: Russians 'outnumbered 8-1' in counter-attack.
this is exceptional, Ukraine has done a remarkable job. If this ratio is correct, it allows troops to blunt a Russian counter attack thus confirming the notion that a counter- attack would be sustained and sufficient to regain the offensive.
posted by clavdivs at 2:48 PM on September 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
this is exceptional, Ukraine has done a remarkable job. If this ratio is correct, it allows troops to blunt a Russian counter attack thus confirming the notion that a counter- attack would be sustained and sufficient to regain the offensive.
posted by clavdivs at 2:48 PM on September 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
To be fair, the Ukraine counteroffensive has met some resistance.
posted by taz at 2:57 PM on September 12, 2022 [14 favorites]
posted by taz at 2:57 PM on September 12, 2022 [14 favorites]
A note about @Visegrad24; it looks like it's run by Trumpists close to the Polish PiS government.
posted by acb at 3:02 PM on September 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by acb at 3:02 PM on September 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
Yeah, the Kyiv retreat seemed to be a planned, more or less organized evacuation of an untenable position.
Absolutely no question that Kharkiv is completely different. The Russian lines got shattered, there was no backup plan, and it seemed like the Russian troops were completely happy to run like heck. Terrible morale and no leadership will do that to frightened troops. I deeply hope that other Russian positions shatter just as hard and fast.
posted by Jacen at 3:05 PM on September 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
Absolutely no question that Kharkiv is completely different. The Russian lines got shattered, there was no backup plan, and it seemed like the Russian troops were completely happy to run like heck. Terrible morale and no leadership will do that to frightened troops. I deeply hope that other Russian positions shatter just as hard and fast.
posted by Jacen at 3:05 PM on September 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
Kyiv retreat wasn't really a rout.
Kharkiv was the routiest rout that ever routed. Future military textbooks will caution that most routs aren't as rapid and lopsided as Kharkiv September 2022.
(ok, not the biggest rout ever, but the km/hr speed of the fight should rank pretty high)
posted by ryanrs at 3:25 PM on September 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
Kharkiv was the routiest rout that ever routed. Future military textbooks will caution that most routs aren't as rapid and lopsided as Kharkiv September 2022.
(ok, not the biggest rout ever, but the km/hr speed of the fight should rank pretty high)
posted by ryanrs at 3:25 PM on September 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
Yes, a retreat is a controlled movement, a rout is uncontrolled. One problem with a rout is that the unit next to the routing units might decide to rout as well, because if you're routing, their flank is now exposed, and they're likely next for the enemies attention, and they're suddenly much more vulnerable. It's about one of the worst things that can happen: not only have you lost all control of your own forces in one area, you're that much likelier to lose control in the neighbouring areas, and this can absolutely trigger a much broader collapse.
posted by fatbird at 3:27 PM on September 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by fatbird at 3:27 PM on September 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
I guess what I'm saying is that the Kharkiv rout was shocking in its scale, even to people who were mostly expecting a rout to happen.
posted by ryanrs at 3:32 PM on September 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by ryanrs at 3:32 PM on September 12, 2022 [3 favorites]
Every new reveal like this makes me more certain that the Russians just don't have any functioning nuclear weapons any more.
It's fun to point and laugh at the state of the Russian forces on the ground but this crosses the line into fantasy.
Nuclear weapons are 1940s technology; even North Korea has functioning nuclear weapons. Russia has plenty of nuclear industry to produce the necessary material, and their rockets are good enough that until very recently the West was using them for their own astronauts.
You fucking bet they have functioning nuclear weapons, more than enough to worry about, and that would still be the case even if only a tiny fraction of their known warheads are in a usable state.
posted by automatronic at 3:56 PM on September 12, 2022 [11 favorites]
It's fun to point and laugh at the state of the Russian forces on the ground but this crosses the line into fantasy.
Nuclear weapons are 1940s technology; even North Korea has functioning nuclear weapons. Russia has plenty of nuclear industry to produce the necessary material, and their rockets are good enough that until very recently the West was using them for their own astronauts.
You fucking bet they have functioning nuclear weapons, more than enough to worry about, and that would still be the case even if only a tiny fraction of their known warheads are in a usable state.
posted by automatronic at 3:56 PM on September 12, 2022 [11 favorites]
It's really quite amazing. You gotta wonder if they planned for it to go this well when they war-gamed it ahead of time, or if even the UAF are surprised too.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 3:57 PM on September 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 3:57 PM on September 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
Every new reveal like this makes me more certain that the Russians just don't have any functioning nuclear weapons any more.
You better believe they have plenty of nukes that still work. Even if 90% of them didn't work: you better believe they have plenty of nukes that still work. You're talking silly.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 3:59 PM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
You better believe they have plenty of nukes that still work. Even if 90% of them didn't work: you better believe they have plenty of nukes that still work. You're talking silly.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 3:59 PM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Every new reveal like this makes me more certain that the Russians just don't have any functioning nuclear weapons any more.
You better believe they have plenty of nukes that still work. Even if 90% of them didn't work - you better believe they have plenty of nukes that still work. You're talking silly.
True. However, I can fervently wish for the scenario in which at least 90% of them are non-functional.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 4:02 PM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
You better believe they have plenty of nukes that still work. Even if 90% of them didn't work - you better believe they have plenty of nukes that still work. You're talking silly.
True. However, I can fervently wish for the scenario in which at least 90% of them are non-functional.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 4:02 PM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
I would be curious to know the difference between how many nukes Moscow believes are in functional condition and how many nukes are actually functional, given the level of money syphoning and grift and basic lack of discipline we've suddenly learned about the RF army.
posted by hippybear at 4:02 PM on September 12, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 4:02 PM on September 12, 2022 [9 favorites]
I mean, this is basically unknowable, but I'm betting the difference is well above 0%.
posted by hippybear at 4:03 PM on September 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 4:03 PM on September 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
Can't find where I read it, but supposedly the Russian strategy for the lack of reliability/precision regarding nukes is to just use more of them per target.
posted by meowzilla at 4:03 PM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by meowzilla at 4:03 PM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
You're talking silly.
It's a fair accusation, I do that for a living.
posted by rifflesby at 4:27 PM on September 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
It's a fair accusation, I do that for a living.
posted by rifflesby at 4:27 PM on September 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
Warheads require maintenance; they're precision machines.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 4:28 PM on September 12, 2022
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 4:28 PM on September 12, 2022
As I understand it, proper maintenance of nuclear weapons means the difference between kilotons of yield and megatons of yield.
posted by Bee'sWing at 4:42 PM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Bee'sWing at 4:42 PM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Basically the difference between a minor explosion as a dirty bomb and a truly full nuclear explosion.
posted by hippybear at 4:47 PM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by hippybear at 4:47 PM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
But also, like... what were your missiles fueled with? What is the lifetime of that fuel? Has that fuel been replaced? Are you SURE it's been done? What about electronics on the missiles. Those can degrade. What's the maintenance schedule for those, especially so close to a nuclear source? Has all THAT actually been done?
There are so many points of failure along the maintenance chain of a nuclear missile that there was at least one story I read from the late 60s that was about how a nuclear was was declared but nothing happened because all the maintenance on all sides had been grifted away for long enough for everything to be useless.
Not saying that's what is going on here, but it's a known failure point. And given the current demonstrations of Russia's abilities, I see no reason to assume anything more than very minimal systems are functioning with these complex weapons.
posted by hippybear at 4:50 PM on September 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
There are so many points of failure along the maintenance chain of a nuclear missile that there was at least one story I read from the late 60s that was about how a nuclear was was declared but nothing happened because all the maintenance on all sides had been grifted away for long enough for everything to be useless.
Not saying that's what is going on here, but it's a known failure point. And given the current demonstrations of Russia's abilities, I see no reason to assume anything more than very minimal systems are functioning with these complex weapons.
posted by hippybear at 4:50 PM on September 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
If the Russians were having trouble getting into space, I'd share the thoughts. I think Vegas odds are their ballistic MIRVs work just like their cruise missiles are shown to work, and they have functional warheads. These are like singletons that do not necessarily depend on the holistic functioning of their land army.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 4:51 PM on September 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 4:51 PM on September 12, 2022 [5 favorites]
But also, like... what were your missiles fueled with? What is the lifetime of that fuel? Has that fuel been replaced? Are you SURE it's been done? What about electronics on the missiles. Those can degrade. What's the maintenance schedule for those, especially so close to a nuclear source? Has all THAT actually been done?
No, probably not all of it. But they have 6,000 warheads. How many millions of lives do you want to bet that none of it has been done?
posted by automatronic at 4:57 PM on September 12, 2022
No, probably not all of it. But they have 6,000 warheads. How many millions of lives do you want to bet that none of it has been done?
posted by automatronic at 4:57 PM on September 12, 2022
They've also got new stuff in the works. https://www.nytimes.com/2022/04/20/world/europe/russia-icbm-putin.html
What's different about missiles with nuclear payloads, is they could actually use one even if they only had a few prototypes, unlike advanced aircraft or their most fancy tanks. They can be used exceptionally. And they have a lot more than some prototypes of the most fancy. They've got a considerable inventory of stuff for decades past.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 4:57 PM on September 12, 2022
What's different about missiles with nuclear payloads, is they could actually use one even if they only had a few prototypes, unlike advanced aircraft or their most fancy tanks. They can be used exceptionally. And they have a lot more than some prototypes of the most fancy. They've got a considerable inventory of stuff for decades past.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 4:57 PM on September 12, 2022
How many millions of lives do you want to bet that none of it has been done?
And this is the calculous that has been in place since Feb 24, and why this entire thing continues. Nobody knows, nobody can take the risk.
posted by hippybear at 5:06 PM on September 12, 2022
And this is the calculous that has been in place since Feb 24, and why this entire thing continues. Nobody knows, nobody can take the risk.
posted by hippybear at 5:06 PM on September 12, 2022
Is anyone else slightly nervous about gathering together the leadership of basically all of the countries allied against Putin in one place for the Queen's funeral? No matter where he detonates a nuclear weapon, the whole world is going to condemn him, so might as well hit the highest-value target he can while sowing as much chaos as possible, right?
He's been acting more like a Bond villain than a military commander this whole time. I'm not sure this is beyond him.
posted by MrVisible at 5:08 PM on September 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
He's been acting more like a Bond villain than a military commander this whole time. I'm not sure this is beyond him.
posted by MrVisible at 5:08 PM on September 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
All it would take is for Putin to explode exactly one low-yield tactical nuclear weapon, perhaps somewhere uninhabited or perhaps on some isolated factory - and he'd break the taboo and the last 77 years of nuclear hiatus are crossed out.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 5:08 PM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 5:08 PM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
Russia has spent a fair amount of effort to modernize their ballistic missile forces, and tested new missiles recently.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 5:09 PM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by a robot made out of meat at 5:09 PM on September 12, 2022 [1 favorite]
The nuclear weapons are one of the few things in Russia that we have reasonably high confidence in because until very recently when Russia suspended their participation in some of the nuclear arms control treaties the U.S. and Russia have conducted regular inspections of each others stockpiles.
posted by interogative mood at 5:26 PM on September 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 5:26 PM on September 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
It wouldn't be global thermonuclear war. Every Western country would draw the line with the unaligned bloc and tell them you either get Russian markets or Western ones. China included. Western Democracies tolerate a lot of murderous dictator shit as a matter of pragmatism/economic convenience but no matter how small the tac nuke on the smallest uninhabited area possible it would break a taboo that no Western country could ever endure having broken.
As much as I slag off liberal democracies for being values-neutral, process driven, and heartless, the one value liberal leaders will die for is no nuclear war ever. They will engage Russia with a diplomatic and economic fury that will make the current sanctions and isolation look like "the good old days".
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:44 PM on September 12, 2022
As much as I slag off liberal democracies for being values-neutral, process driven, and heartless, the one value liberal leaders will die for is no nuclear war ever. They will engage Russia with a diplomatic and economic fury that will make the current sanctions and isolation look like "the good old days".
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 5:44 PM on September 12, 2022
It keeps getting requested in every one of these threads and here it is again: please keep the nuclear speculations/doom-fantasies somewhere else. This isn't the thread for it.
posted by Dip Flash at 5:57 PM on September 12, 2022 [24 favorites]
posted by Dip Flash at 5:57 PM on September 12, 2022 [24 favorites]
Mod note: Folks, any additional doomsaying-adjacent comments will be deleted.
posted by travelingthyme (staff) at 6:19 PM on September 12, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by travelingthyme (staff) at 6:19 PM on September 12, 2022 [16 favorites]
I don't know if its even remotely plausible, but I have carried a small hopeful thought in my heart since the beginning of this war that at some point Xi quietly said to Putin something along the lines of "We support you, and we hope you fuck up the US hegemony, but if things go sideways and you use even one little tactical nuke we will immediately disown you and cut off all aid and trade. That shit's bad for business."
posted by Reverend John at 6:30 PM on September 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 6:30 PM on September 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
If the Russians were having trouble getting into space, I'd share the thoughts.
I remember a comment by a NASA engineer visiting the Russian equivalent of Cape Canaveral, and being shocked to see what a horrid state of disrepair it was in. Rocket husks rusting in fields, discarded tanks for fuels piled to one side, etc. He made some comment to his minder, who told him "look at the surfaces that are actually in use." And sure enough, when he started paying attention to what was about to be a launchable rocket, or a prep area for the astronauts, it was tidy and shiny and immaculate.
posted by fatbird at 6:55 PM on September 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
I remember a comment by a NASA engineer visiting the Russian equivalent of Cape Canaveral, and being shocked to see what a horrid state of disrepair it was in. Rocket husks rusting in fields, discarded tanks for fuels piled to one side, etc. He made some comment to his minder, who told him "look at the surfaces that are actually in use." And sure enough, when he started paying attention to what was about to be a launchable rocket, or a prep area for the astronauts, it was tidy and shiny and immaculate.
posted by fatbird at 6:55 PM on September 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
The radio room on the Moskva must have been spotless.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:58 PM on September 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:58 PM on September 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
i'm sure people in the russian war room are polishing their knobs constantly
posted by pyramid termite at 7:07 PM on September 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by pyramid termite at 7:07 PM on September 12, 2022 [7 favorites]
You can't fight here...
posted by hippybear at 7:22 PM on September 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 7:22 PM on September 12, 2022 [6 favorites]
Azerbaijan and Armenia are fighting again and Armenia has asked CSTO counties to come to its aid. Treaty leader, Russia, had previously brokered a truce and sent in peacekeepers.
posted by interogative mood at 8:46 PM on September 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 8:46 PM on September 12, 2022 [2 favorites]
Russia is going to lose the CTSO and the EEC because they literally don't have enough troops to come to the aid of Armenia and nobody else is going to do it.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:53 PM on September 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:53 PM on September 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
There may be a whole domino effect in the region as Russia acted as a stabilizing economic or military force, but has been exposed as a paper tiger. Kazakhstan had to crush anti-government protesters earlier this year with CSTO forces. Belarus has been suffering sanctions because they've allowed Russia to start the war from their territory and many don't believe in the legitimacy of their last presidential election.
posted by meowzilla at 11:07 PM on September 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by meowzilla at 11:07 PM on September 12, 2022 [4 favorites]
interrogative mood: Azerbaijan and Armenia are fighting again
Apparently, Reuters is reporting that there is a ceasefire. I say “apparently” because I haven’t seen anything else about it than on the Guardian’s liveblog.
posted by Kattullus at 11:33 PM on September 12, 2022
Apparently, Reuters is reporting that there is a ceasefire. I say “apparently” because I haven’t seen anything else about it than on the Guardian’s liveblog.
posted by Kattullus at 11:33 PM on September 12, 2022
The Kyiv Independent
⚡️ UK intelligence: prestigious Russian
army unit severely degraded in Kharkiv counteroffensive.
Russia's 1st Guards Tank Army – designated to protect Moscow in case of attack and lead counterattacks against NATO countries – took part in the chaotic retreat from Kharkiv Oblast.
2:48 AM · Sep 13, 2022
·
posted by clavdivs at 12:02 AM on September 13, 2022 [7 favorites]
⚡️ UK intelligence: prestigious Russian
army unit severely degraded in Kharkiv counteroffensive.
Russia's 1st Guards Tank Army – designated to protect Moscow in case of attack and lead counterattacks against NATO countries – took part in the chaotic retreat from Kharkiv Oblast.
2:48 AM · Sep 13, 2022
·
posted by clavdivs at 12:02 AM on September 13, 2022 [7 favorites]
bcd: And this was the flagship - one can't imagine the rest of the fleet is in better shape.
Just read up on the service record of the Northern Fleet flagship, the Адмира́л фло́та Сове́тского Сою́за Кузнецо́в, and wonder no more.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:16 AM on September 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
Just read up on the service record of the Northern Fleet flagship, the Адмира́л фло́та Сове́тского Сою́за Кузнецо́в, and wonder no more.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:16 AM on September 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
fatbird: I remember a comment by a NASA engineer visiting the Russian equivalent of Cape Canaveral
That would be Baikonur, which is in Kazakhstan. Though the piles of junk they saw will for a good part have been USSR heritage.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:41 AM on September 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
That would be Baikonur, which is in Kazakhstan. Though the piles of junk they saw will for a good part have been USSR heritage.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:41 AM on September 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
Reuters is reporting that the ceasefire between Armenia and Azerbaijan has failed. This looks bad.
posted by Kattullus at 1:02 AM on September 13, 2022
posted by Kattullus at 1:02 AM on September 13, 2022
Armenia and Azeribaijan are apparently not simply fighting: Azeribaijan attacked Armenia proper this morning - outside of the disputed Nagarno-Karabakh region.
posted by kmt at 4:54 AM on September 13, 2022
posted by kmt at 4:54 AM on September 13, 2022
Turkey, despite strenuous denials of ever committing genocide against the Armenians, just can't seem to ever miss a chance to kill more Armenians.
posted by Bee'sWing at 5:33 AM on September 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Bee'sWing at 5:33 AM on September 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
If Russia's support and protection has become greatly devalued I wonder what that means for other places, like Syria, Georgia, and Moldova.
posted by Reverend John at 6:56 AM on September 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Reverend John at 6:56 AM on September 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
I wonder what it means for right here. Ever since the breakup of the USSR there has been a Russian army detachment in Tajikistan, supporting border defence against Afghanistan and just more generally acting as guarantors of the regime. The Tajikistan government has been particularly belicose in non-recogniotion of the Taliban, and there are plenty of demobilised young Tajik Afghan men (mixed in with many legitimate Afghan refugees) here.
Sadly there is no chance of a liberal democratic popular uprising, duh. If things get shaky it will be the current authoritarian regime against various stripes of hardcore Nationalist-Islamist extremists. These opposition elements would not like my fifth columnist Russian speaking Tajik wife married to a foreigner, not at all.
Sucks to see that the current status quo is actually the best of possible worlds, and knowing there are plenty of people who would prefer that change.
posted by Meatbomb at 8:19 AM on September 13, 2022 [14 favorites]
Sadly there is no chance of a liberal democratic popular uprising, duh. If things get shaky it will be the current authoritarian regime against various stripes of hardcore Nationalist-Islamist extremists. These opposition elements would not like my fifth columnist Russian speaking Tajik wife married to a foreigner, not at all.
Sucks to see that the current status quo is actually the best of possible worlds, and knowing there are plenty of people who would prefer that change.
posted by Meatbomb at 8:19 AM on September 13, 2022 [14 favorites]
Status-6 on Twitter
1/5posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:35 AM on September 13, 2022 [13 favorites]
Some interesting points from this NYT article on latest Ukrainian military gains:
- Initially, President Zelensky desired to launch the broad attack across the south, to recapture Kherson and cut off Mariupol from the Russian force in the east.
https://nytimes.com/2022/09/13/us/politics/ukraine-russia-pentagon.html
2/5
- 🇺🇦 generals and 🇺🇸 officials believed that such an assault would result in immense casualties and would fail to retake large amounts of territory.
- During the course of the planning, 🇺🇦 commanders started opening up more to 🇺🇸 and 🇬🇧 intel officials and seeking advice.
3/5
- A war game held by 🇺🇸 and 🇺🇦 officials simulating the attack in the south also suggested that such an offensive would fail.
- Instead of one large offensive, 🇺🇦 military proposed two. One - Kherson Oblast; the other - Kharkiv Oblast.
4/5
- 🇬🇧, 🇺🇸 and 🇺🇦 conducted an assessment of the new plan, trying to war game it once more. This time officials from the three countries agreed it would work.
- Before the counter-offensive, 🇺🇦 sent 🇺🇸 a detailed list of weapons needed for the attack, according to 🇺🇦 officer.
5/5
- The attack in Kherson Oblast was never a "feint or a diversion," according to people briefed on the plan.
- 🇺🇸 officials insist that credit for the offensive lies fully with Zelensky and 🇺🇦 military, which led a "relatively small force in Kharkiv to an outsize victory."
In the early stages of the southern offensive, before Kharkiv, an American source "leaked" that they had wargamed the offensive and all agreed that it was best with a single push south. Good to have friends that back you up!
posted by Harald74 at 9:08 AM on September 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 9:08 AM on September 13, 2022 [5 favorites]
If Russia's support and protection has become greatly devalued I wonder what that means for other places, like Syria, Georgia, and Moldova.
I'm not sure about Syria and Georgia, but in Moldova's case the status quo in Transnistria should probably not be permitted to continue if Russia winds up having to unilaterally withdraw.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:35 AM on September 13, 2022
I'm not sure about Syria and Georgia, but in Moldova's case the status quo in Transnistria should probably not be permitted to continue if Russia winds up having to unilaterally withdraw.
posted by snuffleupagus at 10:35 AM on September 13, 2022
Ukraine piles pressure on retreating Russian troops | AP News
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:12 AM on September 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
Reports of chaos abounded as Russian troops pulled out — as well as claims that they were surrendering en masse. The claims could not be immediately verified.Sounds like they're specifically appealing to the ethnic minorities in the Russian forces (where I believe they are the majority.)
Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar said Kyiv is trying to persuade even more Russian soldiers to give up, launching shells filled with flyers ahead of their advance.
“Russians use you as cannon fodder. Your life doesn’t mean anything for them. You don’t need this war. Surrender to Armed Forces of Ukraine,” the flyers read.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:12 AM on September 13, 2022 [4 favorites]
ChurchHatesTucker: Ukrainian Deputy Minister of Defense Hanna Maliar said Kyiv is trying to persuade even more Russian soldiers to give up, launching shells filled with flyers ahead of their advance.
Here's a video of one such launch. About 10 seconds in they show the leaflets, of which there are translations in the first and third comment. The rest of the video is the rockets being prepared, loaded and launched, plus a few comments from the artillery crew.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:53 PM on September 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
Here's a video of one such launch. About 10 seconds in they show the leaflets, of which there are translations in the first and third comment. The rest of the video is the rockets being prepared, loaded and launched, plus a few comments from the artillery crew.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:53 PM on September 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
Foreign Policy's Jack Detsch has a way with words.
Russia Is Supplying Ukraine With Lightly Used Tanks
Russia Is Supplying Ukraine With Lightly Used Tanks
“They’re doing a lot of mods, like interesting things with captured Russian equipment,” said Jeb Nadaner, a former U.S. deputy assistant secretary of defense for industrial policy during the Trump administration. “They’ve got a capability, particularly with captured equipment.” Russian strikes have targeted industrial facilities, such as Kharkiv’s tank repair plant and the Malyshev tank factory, forcing Ukraine to repurpose garages and junkyards to repair their vehicles or prepare captured Russian equipment to meet its maker.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:10 PM on September 13, 2022 [8 favorites]
Ukraine also has NATO workshops from prior Warsaw Pact countries on hand to help with the repair and maintenance of their MBT force. Poland and the Czechs are both offering assistance in getting tanks back out there. Russia on the other hand is losing artillery from lack of maintenance.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:47 PM on September 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:47 PM on September 13, 2022 [2 favorites]
That's all great but did you ever liberate your own mama's village? (CW: Hugs and kisses)
posted by Harald74 at 9:49 PM on September 13, 2022 [20 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 9:49 PM on September 13, 2022 [20 favorites]
From ISW:
I think this is interesting because it shows that Russia still has to manage expectations domestically, even if it's finding a scapegoat. They're not expecting Russians to uncritically accept whatever lies they have been saying for the past six months. They're creating a narrative that can explain why the entire campaign has failed.
posted by meowzilla at 11:31 PM on September 13, 2022 [9 favorites]
The Kremlin acknowledged its defeat in Kharkiv Oblast, the first time Moscow has openly recognized a defeat since the start of the February 2022 invasion of Ukraine. [...] Kremlin sources are now working to clear Putin of any responsibility for the defeat, instead blaming the loss of almost all of occupied Kharkiv Oblast on underinformed military advisors within Putin’s circle.It's not a "tactical retreat" like the Battle of Kyiv.
I think this is interesting because it shows that Russia still has to manage expectations domestically, even if it's finding a scapegoat. They're not expecting Russians to uncritically accept whatever lies they have been saying for the past six months. They're creating a narrative that can explain why the entire campaign has failed.
posted by meowzilla at 11:31 PM on September 13, 2022 [9 favorites]
The Kyiv Independent
@KyivIndependent
These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of Sept. 14, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine
posted by clavdivs at 11:38 PM on September 13, 2022
@KyivIndependent
These are the indicative estimates of Russia’s combat losses as of Sept. 14, according to the Armed Forces of Ukraine
posted by clavdivs at 11:38 PM on September 13, 2022
From the ISW report: Kremlin-controlled and Kremlin-influenced media are now openly calling for an intensive missile campaign against Ukrainian civilian critical infrastructure and transit routes, an idea with broad support among many milbloggers.[14] These new calls are a stark departure from the Kremlin‘s previous line claiming that Russian forces did not target civilian infrastructure, and this new narrative is earning the Kremlin public support among milbloggers.
Well, that's just lovely.
posted by Harald74 at 11:44 PM on September 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
Well, that's just lovely.
posted by Harald74 at 11:44 PM on September 13, 2022 [6 favorites]
Christmas is coming, and a lot of Ukrainian small businesses are struggling. In addition to the obvious hardships of the invasion, the currency is on life support and costs are through the roof. Here's a list from Twitter of Ukrainian online stores to consider getting your Christmas shopping from to support their economy.
I'm a bit partial to Olga Turetska's glass work myself.
posted by Harald74 at 12:08 AM on September 14, 2022 [12 favorites]
I'm a bit partial to Olga Turetska's glass work myself.
posted by Harald74 at 12:08 AM on September 14, 2022 [12 favorites]
From the ISW report: Kremlin-controlled and Kremlin-influenced media are now openly calling for an intensive missile campaign against Ukrainian civilian critical infrastructure and transit routes
Something that is probably still true, is if this evolves from a limited "special military operation" to total war, I guess Russia can win. They have the cannon fodder (and nukes). But can Russians tolerate such a thing?
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 12:38 AM on September 14, 2022
Something that is probably still true, is if this evolves from a limited "special military operation" to total war, I guess Russia can win. They have the cannon fodder (and nukes). But can Russians tolerate such a thing?
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 12:38 AM on September 14, 2022
There's no way Russia would win. Those people don't know the difference between reality and propaganda. They can keep "now let's show those Ukrainians what we can do!" all day long and pretend that Russia hasn't been trying to do exactly that every day for the last 6 months. Oh, now they're going to hit civilians?
They can try un-sinking the Moskva while they're at it.
posted by UN at 2:19 AM on September 14, 2022 [9 favorites]
They can try un-sinking the Moskva while they're at it.
posted by UN at 2:19 AM on September 14, 2022 [9 favorites]
Sunflowers Beneath the Snow: They have the cannon fodder
But do they have the vehicles, weapons and supplies that the cannon fodder needs to be of any use?
posted by Too-Ticky at 3:52 AM on September 14, 2022 [4 favorites]
But do they have the vehicles, weapons and supplies that the cannon fodder needs to be of any use?
posted by Too-Ticky at 3:52 AM on September 14, 2022 [4 favorites]
If this evolves from a limited "special military operation" to total war, I guess Russia can win. They have the cannon fodder (and nukes). But can Russians tolerate such a thing?
So we're supposed to believe Putin's line that this has been a limited special military operation and not total war? Russia massed a ton of troops on the border and invaded in force, and has been bombing civilian targets across the country for months. What was reducing Mariupol to rubble other than "total war"? They've done everything they could except use nukes, and the fact that they haven't done that by this point suggests that they won't.
Many Russians, sadly, have shown that they'll tolerate genocide, and presumably would also tolerate the use of nuclear weapons (just as too many Westerners were in favour of using them during the Iraq war—the number of "turn the desert into glass" comments back then was significantly higher than zero). But Putin's instinct for self-preservation is clearly holding him back. He's wanted the world to think he's crazy enough to use them, but that doesn't mean he is. He's happy to portray this as a war with NATO for domestic rhetorical purposes, but that doesn't mean he wants an actual hot war between Russia and NATO.
I trust Ukraine in this. They don't want to be nuked, and the risk to them right now is surely greater than the risk to the rest of us. But they're not letting that hold them back at this critical moment. Zelenskyy's point in his "without you" speech about Russia's hollow claims of brotherhood was well-made, but Ukraine still has years of experience of living under the same roof as Russia—if anyone can see through Russia's bullshit, it's Ukraine.
posted by rory at 4:34 AM on September 14, 2022 [15 favorites]
So we're supposed to believe Putin's line that this has been a limited special military operation and not total war? Russia massed a ton of troops on the border and invaded in force, and has been bombing civilian targets across the country for months. What was reducing Mariupol to rubble other than "total war"? They've done everything they could except use nukes, and the fact that they haven't done that by this point suggests that they won't.
Many Russians, sadly, have shown that they'll tolerate genocide, and presumably would also tolerate the use of nuclear weapons (just as too many Westerners were in favour of using them during the Iraq war—the number of "turn the desert into glass" comments back then was significantly higher than zero). But Putin's instinct for self-preservation is clearly holding him back. He's wanted the world to think he's crazy enough to use them, but that doesn't mean he is. He's happy to portray this as a war with NATO for domestic rhetorical purposes, but that doesn't mean he wants an actual hot war between Russia and NATO.
I trust Ukraine in this. They don't want to be nuked, and the risk to them right now is surely greater than the risk to the rest of us. But they're not letting that hold them back at this critical moment. Zelenskyy's point in his "without you" speech about Russia's hollow claims of brotherhood was well-made, but Ukraine still has years of experience of living under the same roof as Russia—if anyone can see through Russia's bullshit, it's Ukraine.
posted by rory at 4:34 AM on September 14, 2022 [15 favorites]
Two months ago, Putin proclaimed: ‘Everyone should know that, by and large, we haven’t started anything yet in earnest'.
Just looking at the Russian equipment losses listed by Oryx, the count back then was 4500. It's 6000 now, with the past week clocking in at 100 per day. An appreciable part just being abandoned, either immediately usable by the Ukrainian forces, or with minimal repairs.
Starting in earnest, indeed.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:43 AM on September 14, 2022 [8 favorites]
Just looking at the Russian equipment losses listed by Oryx, the count back then was 4500. It's 6000 now, with the past week clocking in at 100 per day. An appreciable part just being abandoned, either immediately usable by the Ukrainian forces, or with minimal repairs.
Starting in earnest, indeed.
posted by Stoneshop at 4:43 AM on September 14, 2022 [8 favorites]
Q. Is it true that Russia and Ukraine are brother nations?
Radio Kyiv: yes, Russia is Ukraine's biggest arms supplier and Ukraine is Russia's biggest washing machine supplier.
Apropos of this, people are leaving gift-wrapped washing machines outside Russian embassies
posted by acb at 5:12 AM on September 14, 2022 [17 favorites]
Radio Kyiv: yes, Russia is Ukraine's biggest arms supplier and Ukraine is Russia's biggest washing machine supplier.
Apropos of this, people are leaving gift-wrapped washing machines outside Russian embassies
posted by acb at 5:12 AM on September 14, 2022 [17 favorites]
Exclusive: As war began, Putin rejected a Ukraine peace deal recommended by aide
Note that was back in May. The 'Russians want washing machines' meme has been around for a while.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:40 AM on September 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
PARIS, Sept 14 (Reuters) - Vladimir Putin's chief envoy on Ukraine told the Russian leader as the war began that he had struck a provisional deal with Kyiv that would satisfy Russia's demand that Ukraine stay out of NATO, but Putin rejected it and pressed ahead with his military campaign, according to three people close to the Russian leadership.Apropos of this, people are leaving gift-wrapped washing machines outside Russian embassies
...
But, despite earlier backing the negotiations, Putin made it clear when presented with Kozak's deal that the concessions negotiated by his aide did not go far enough and that he had expanded his objectives to include annexing swathes of Ukrainian territory, the sources said. The upshot: the deal was dropped.
Note that was back in May. The 'Russians want washing machines' meme has been around for a while.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:40 AM on September 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
an idea with broad support among many milbloggers.
At first blush, it seems bonkers to me that even within dictatorships that there are influencers for military activity. Why would Putin care what's happening on internal social media? Don't they have the police to make sure everyone does what the Kremlin wants?
Thinking about it further though, these seems to be a great way to farm out internal propaganda efforts and increase credibility of whatever the government wants to say---it's not coming from the Kremlin as such but from some cool guy who just wants to get you the pravda! That not just keeps people on side, but may get a few more young men to volunteer for the meatgrinder.
It's all about the leadership leveraging social media for social control and oppression.
posted by bonehead at 8:21 AM on September 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
At first blush, it seems bonkers to me that even within dictatorships that there are influencers for military activity. Why would Putin care what's happening on internal social media? Don't they have the police to make sure everyone does what the Kremlin wants?
Thinking about it further though, these seems to be a great way to farm out internal propaganda efforts and increase credibility of whatever the government wants to say---it's not coming from the Kremlin as such but from some cool guy who just wants to get you the pravda! That not just keeps people on side, but may get a few more young men to volunteer for the meatgrinder.
It's all about the leadership leveraging social media for social control and oppression.
posted by bonehead at 8:21 AM on September 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Technically, in terms of military jargon and political reality, Russia is not engaged in a war, and certainly not total war. That would have implications for wartime powers Putin would have, the amount of conscription possible, even more crackdown on dissent, and how much the economy and manufacturing is devoted to war material production.
Declaring full war is popular among Russian hawks... It would change the calculus of the war, somewhat. But probably not enough to win the war. It would just increase the suffering on both sides significantly. And of course most importantly, mass murderer Putin thinks it would be devastating to his personal and political safety, so.
posted by Jacen at 8:39 AM on September 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
Declaring full war is popular among Russian hawks... It would change the calculus of the war, somewhat. But probably not enough to win the war. It would just increase the suffering on both sides significantly. And of course most importantly, mass murderer Putin thinks it would be devastating to his personal and political safety, so.
posted by Jacen at 8:39 AM on September 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
Why would Putin care what's happening on internal social media?
If he loses the right-wingers, he's got no base.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:18 AM on September 14, 2022
If he loses the right-wingers, he's got no base.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:18 AM on September 14, 2022
It's definitely a disconnect between what "total war" means technically related to Russia's laws (IE: what Putin feels he can get away with) vs the common use of the term.
It's not a total war in the first sense but definitely is in the second.
No matter how much he's managed to centralize all authority and consolidated power under himself, he still needs a lot of people to choose to do what he says. If enough people decide to stop that, his power evaporates.
posted by VTX at 9:49 AM on September 14, 2022 [4 favorites]
It's not a total war in the first sense but definitely is in the second.
No matter how much he's managed to centralize all authority and consolidated power under himself, he still needs a lot of people to choose to do what he says. If enough people decide to stop that, his power evaporates.
posted by VTX at 9:49 AM on September 14, 2022 [4 favorites]
By this point, I suspect mobilizing will actually hinder Russia's war effort. The organization and logistics to receive hundreds of thousands of mobilized soldiers are long gone, rusted away like so many Soviet-era tanks stored outdoors. They're having trouble keeping their army in the field clothed, fed and led. They won't be able to receive, house, train and equip a significant amount of new soldiers without a Herculean effort, including support from the already deployed soldiers for training and leadership purposes.
posted by Harald74 at 9:50 AM on September 14, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 9:50 AM on September 14, 2022 [7 favorites]
If Putin started drafting European Russians and forcing people to stay in service in Ukraine (declaring a full on war) he would be far more likely to face demonstrations and strikes and even open revolt.
Nixon ended the draft during the Vietnam War for the same reason (though he had a better retirement plan).
posted by Bee'sWing at 9:56 AM on September 14, 2022 [6 favorites]
Nixon ended the draft during the Vietnam War for the same reason (though he had a better retirement plan).
posted by Bee'sWing at 9:56 AM on September 14, 2022 [6 favorites]
UK Ministry of Defence HQ tweets that the 1st Guards Tank Army is "severely degraded", with some analysts saying that it "does not exist anymore as a military unit".
For reference, an Army, in military unit terms, is... an Army. It's multiple Corps. How big is a Corps? It's multiple Divisions. You want a comparison with US forces? The US currently has a single Armor (Tank) Division. If you throw an Army at a problem and the Army breaks, then you have yourself an existential dilemma. This is the very definition of "huge if true".
posted by Etrigan at 10:09 AM on September 14, 2022 [14 favorites]
For reference, an Army, in military unit terms, is... an Army. It's multiple Corps. How big is a Corps? It's multiple Divisions. You want a comparison with US forces? The US currently has a single Armor (Tank) Division. If you throw an Army at a problem and the Army breaks, then you have yourself an existential dilemma. This is the very definition of "huge if true".
posted by Etrigan at 10:09 AM on September 14, 2022 [14 favorites]
Residents of Belgorod complain about the stench from the refrigerated wagons that arrived from the Kharkiv region.
"It's been standing for a week, сука, this wagon is stinking up the whole district, damn it."
posted by ryanrs at 10:17 AM on September 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
"It's been standing for a week, сука, this wagon is stinking up the whole district, damn it."
posted by ryanrs at 10:17 AM on September 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Teegeeack AV Club Secretary: According to the newspaper Izvestia, the 1st Guards Tank Army will be composed of “not less than 500–600 tanks, 600–800 infantry fighting vehicles, 300–400 field artillery units and 35 thousand–50 thousand soldiers”
The current tally by Oryx:
Tanks (1104, of which destroyed: 665, damaged: 44, abandoned: 51, captured: 344)
Infantry Fighting Vehicles (1231, of which destroyed: 767, damaged: 25, abandoned: 73, captured: 366)
Self-Propelled Artillery (193, of which destroyed: 101, damaged: 8, abandoned: 13, captured: 71)
Of course those are from not just the 1st Guards, but as a raw comparison it shows how much the Russian army has been losing.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:12 AM on September 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
The current tally by Oryx:
Tanks (1104, of which destroyed: 665, damaged: 44, abandoned: 51, captured: 344)
Infantry Fighting Vehicles (1231, of which destroyed: 767, damaged: 25, abandoned: 73, captured: 366)
Self-Propelled Artillery (193, of which destroyed: 101, damaged: 8, abandoned: 13, captured: 71)
Of course those are from not just the 1st Guards, but as a raw comparison it shows how much the Russian army has been losing.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:12 AM on September 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
From one of the Twitter threads above:
that's all great but did you ever liberate your own mama's village ❤
posted by Glinn at 11:36 AM on September 14, 2022 [9 favorites]
that's all great but did you ever liberate your own mama's village ❤
posted by Glinn at 11:36 AM on September 14, 2022 [9 favorites]
"It's been standing for a week, сука, this wagon is stinking up the whole district, damn it."
Jesus. Zinky Boys, except the kleptocracy that ordered the invasion isn't even bothering with the zinc coffins. Just abandoned freight cars.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:04 PM on September 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Jesus. Zinky Boys, except the kleptocracy that ordered the invasion isn't even bothering with the zinc coffins. Just abandoned freight cars.
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 3:04 PM on September 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
From Google's translation of that stinky refrigerated rail car article:
posted by Flunkie at 5:22 PM on September 14, 2022
the stench can be heard all aroundJeez, that's some stench!
posted by Flunkie at 5:22 PM on September 14, 2022
Ukraine President Zelensky involved in car accident but 'not seriously hurt'
A passenger car collided with the presidential vehicle and his escort in the capital Kyiv, Sergii Nykyforov said in a short statement.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 6:48 PM on September 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
"The president was examined by a doctor, no serious injuries were found," he said.
The driver of the car that collided with the motorcade was treated at the scene and driven away in an ambulance.
Mr Nykyforov said all the circumstances of the traffic accident were being investigated by law enforcement officers. He provided no further details.
This comes after President Zelensky, 44, visited the recaptured city of Izyum, a key logistics hub in north-eastern Ukraine, on Wednesday.
The de-nazifying special operation takes an odd turn.
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14 | Institute for the Study of War
Russian Offensive Campaign Assessment, September 14 | Institute for the Study of War
Wagner Group financier Yevgeny Prigozhin is being established as the face of the Russian “special military operation” in Ukraine.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:34 PM on September 14, 2022 [3 favorites]
...
Prigozhin is Putin’s close confidant, and his developing relationship with milbloggers may help retain milblogger support for the Kremlin’s war effort while scapegoating Shoigu and the Russian Defense Ministry for the defeat around Kharkiv Oblast.
Kazakhstan is pulling out of the CSTO at the start of 2023. Putin remains a master strategist.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:11 PM on September 14, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 10:11 PM on September 14, 2022 [11 favorites]
For some added reference, the 1st Guards Tank Army is also a very prestigious unit, having distinguished itself in many battles in WWII, including the battles of Stalingrad and Kursk and the final battle for Berlin. The "Guards" title was awarded for units in the Red Army that displayed "mass heroism" and achieved great successes on the battlefield. If it was routed that's quite a kick in the teeth for the Russian Army.
posted by Harald74 at 11:01 PM on September 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 11:01 PM on September 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Kazakhstan is pulling out of the CSTO at the start of 2023. Putin remains a master strategist.
How does that play with them needing help from Russian forces to quash anti-government protests recently?
posted by Harald74 at 11:08 PM on September 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
How does that play with them needing help from Russian forces to quash anti-government protests recently?
posted by Harald74 at 11:08 PM on September 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Piotr Butowski at The Warzone: Russia’s Secretive Long-Range Bomber Operations Against Ukraine
posted by Harald74 at 11:34 PM on September 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 11:34 PM on September 14, 2022 [1 favorite]
Harald74: If it was routed that's quite a kick in the teeth for the Russian Army.
Another piece of anatomy, I think.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:28 AM on September 15, 2022
Another piece of anatomy, I think.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:28 AM on September 15, 2022
I'm not sure but I think less so. Most VVER's use the same loose fuel pool configuration for which Western reactors were originally designed, it was only the desire not to have to put fuel in dry casks on-site which led to the dense fuel racking configuration in the US and elsewhere and I think that dry casking early is the preferred VVER operator choice (as it should be elsewhere, it's much safer).
Incidentally, on further reading, this is not actually the case. From a 2017 IAEA document, they do use dense racking at Zaporizhia. It's also the plant at which dry casked fuel from other Ukrainian VVER's is stored long term, so that's fun.
posted by atrazine at 1:13 AM on September 15, 2022 [4 favorites]
Incidentally, on further reading, this is not actually the case. From a 2017 IAEA document, they do use dense racking at Zaporizhia. It's also the plant at which dry casked fuel from other Ukrainian VVER's is stored long term, so that's fun.
posted by atrazine at 1:13 AM on September 15, 2022 [4 favorites]
Meanwhile, apparently Georgia is proposing a referendum asking if Georgians want to open a second front against Russia.
posted by acb at 8:34 AM on September 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by acb at 8:34 AM on September 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
This Twitter thread on Russian public opinion by @YudinGreg was interesting.
There are three distinct groups in Russia:posted by TheophileEscargot at 8:56 AM on September 15, 2022 [9 favorites]
1) radicals – a sizeable but extremely loud minority that actively supports war, is engaged, follows the news and in rare cases even goes to the frontlines (15-25%). This is the audience of the milbloggers, Telegram channels and vampires like Solovyov or Skabeeva
2) dissenters – a sizeable minority that categorically opposes the war. It is banned from Russian-based media and generally depressed (20-25%)
3) laymen – a passive majority that is completely depoliticized and doesn’t want to have anything in common with politics & war (50-65%)
Laymen are the bulk of yeah-sayers when asked “Do you support the President’s decision to conduct the special military operation or are you a national traitor to be put in prison for 15 years?”
The laymen are the those carelessly enjoying their lives while people are dying in Ukraine. It is obviously deplorable but the upside of it is that these people are completely unwilling to participate in war actively in any way...
... Still, current situation puts Putin in a precarious position. He is dependent BOTH on the passivity of the laymen and the engagement of the radicals. That’s why he sells two contradictory narratives – one about an existential war and another about things running as usual
Now, the radicals’ demand for total mobilization is totally unacceptable for the laymen. However, the defeats on the frontlines make Putin’s reluctance to put the country on wartime footing unacceptable for the radicals...
>Kazakhstan is pulling out of the CSTO at the start of 2023. Putin remains a master strategist.
How does that play with them needing help from Russian forces to quash anti-government protests recently?
China's Xi visits Kazakhstan ahead of summit with Putin
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:34 AM on September 15, 2022 [6 favorites]
How does that play with them needing help from Russian forces to quash anti-government protests recently?
China's Xi visits Kazakhstan ahead of summit with Putin
The Chinese leader promised to resolutely support Kazakhstan “in protecting its independence, sovereignty and territorial integrity, firmly support your ongoing reforms to ensure stability and development, and categorically oppose the interference of any forces in the internal affairs” of the country “no matter how the international situation changes.”
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 9:34 AM on September 15, 2022 [6 favorites]
Regarding Georgia opening a second front, this assessment does not take it seriously and seemed sober to me.
posted by brambleboy at 9:39 AM on September 15, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by brambleboy at 9:39 AM on September 15, 2022 [3 favorites]
Something going down in Moscow? Reports of a Putin assassination attempt and 'disappearance' of bodyguards and other arrests.
posted by adamvasco at 9:43 AM on September 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 9:43 AM on September 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
It definitely seems like the Georgian government, with memories of a civil war and long dread of Russian military might, aren't eager to abandon their policies of trying to foster good relations with Russia and their breakaway regions in the hope of eventual reconciliation. However, even if this proposed referendum isn't serious, it shows that it's an idea in Georgian society that's becoming prominent enough to need to be addressed. Maybe the Abkhazians and Ossetians will look at the situation with Armenia and think this might be a good time to try to strike a reconciliation deal before Russia gets any weaker.
posted by Reverend John at 11:51 AM on September 15, 2022
posted by Reverend John at 11:51 AM on September 15, 2022
#Ukraine: Now we can finally take a look at how American 🇺🇸 AGM-88 HARM anti-radar missiles are mounted on Ukrainian MiG-29 jets - the missile itself is used with its standard LAU-118/A launcher which is attached to a newly fabricated pylon-adapter, intended specially for AGM-88!You can see the adapter they fabricated to put NATO missiles on the MiG-29.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:14 PM on September 15, 2022 [6 favorites]
How does that play with them needing help from Russian forces to quash anti-government protests recently?
I'm reminded of what happened in Prague in 1989. The last communist PM met the dissidents and told them their protests should either be so big that the Russians won't mull a repeat of 1968, or they should not happen. The dissidents took the former route. And the PM resigned.
posted by ocschwar at 1:15 PM on September 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
I'm reminded of what happened in Prague in 1989. The last communist PM met the dissidents and told them their protests should either be so big that the Russians won't mull a repeat of 1968, or they should not happen. The dissidents took the former route. And the PM resigned.
posted by ocschwar at 1:15 PM on September 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Reports of a Putin assassination attempt
You come at the king, you best not miss
posted by meowzilla at 1:25 PM on September 15, 2022
You come at the king, you best not miss
posted by meowzilla at 1:25 PM on September 15, 2022
You can see the adapter they fabricated to put NATO missiles on the MiG-29.
I'm more interested in the electrical interface. Is the best we have that they installed a button to launch it in the mode where it will just scream out and hopefully that direction has radar it can find? Or might have made an app that is displayed on a tablet? This is usually a weapon that is pretty well integrated with the plane. Like, you get a warning that you're being tracked by radar, from a suite of sensors, and then you launch the missile and it already knows where to head.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 1:27 PM on September 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'm more interested in the electrical interface. Is the best we have that they installed a button to launch it in the mode where it will just scream out and hopefully that direction has radar it can find? Or might have made an app that is displayed on a tablet? This is usually a weapon that is pretty well integrated with the plane. Like, you get a warning that you're being tracked by radar, from a suite of sensors, and then you launch the missile and it already knows where to head.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 1:27 PM on September 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
That blends the radar/threat warning receiver's function into the HARM integration a little, which is natural and part of what why its such an interesting question.
I'm not any kind of expert, but my understanding is that without further avionics integration the missile is known to have three modes of operation: self-protect, target of opportunity, and pre-briefed. SP and/or TOO will be the easiest to rig depending on their particulars -- they need the least information and cockpit integration (whichever one is the blind homing mode).
But if UA were able to rig up some kind of cockpit display to access other modes, or even better some kind of onboard system to do more than just what the missile does, then it might have added more than just pure offensive capability; it might function as a much more modern and capable radar warning receiver than what the MiGs have, just hanging off the pylon.
Here's someone's speculative twitter thread.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:30 PM on September 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
I'm not any kind of expert, but my understanding is that without further avionics integration the missile is known to have three modes of operation: self-protect, target of opportunity, and pre-briefed. SP and/or TOO will be the easiest to rig depending on their particulars -- they need the least information and cockpit integration (whichever one is the blind homing mode).
But if UA were able to rig up some kind of cockpit display to access other modes, or even better some kind of onboard system to do more than just what the missile does, then it might have added more than just pure offensive capability; it might function as a much more modern and capable radar warning receiver than what the MiGs have, just hanging off the pylon.
Here's someone's speculative twitter thread.
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:30 PM on September 15, 2022 [1 favorite]
(Which reaches a different conclusion, so I'm looking forward to the eventual reports whenever they come out.)
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:37 PM on September 15, 2022
posted by snuffleupagus at 3:37 PM on September 15, 2022
The small, poor region of Russia with the most (official) deaths in the Ukraine War:
Tuvans, trying to scramble out of poverty, are dying in a foreign war
posted by meowzilla at 3:42 PM on September 15, 2022 [10 favorites]
Tuvans, trying to scramble out of poverty, are dying in a foreign war
posted by meowzilla at 3:42 PM on September 15, 2022 [10 favorites]
Maybe we'll find out long after the war is over. Something else I'm curious about: did they receive any of the M30A1 anti-personnel HIMARS ammunition that scatters 180,000 tungsten steel bee-bees over the destination, fucking humans up? Or are they just using the M31A1 high explosive? The Pentagon has never clarified this with their announcements of the distributions.
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 4:19 PM on September 15, 2022
posted by Sunflowers Beneath the Snow at 4:19 PM on September 15, 2022
Tuva, the region that gave the world throat singing. Once again, a visceral, vital musical tradition emerges from a deeply immiserated milieu (cf. the Blues, Rebetiko, Romani folk music, and many more)
posted by acb at 4:39 PM on September 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by acb at 4:39 PM on September 15, 2022 [2 favorites]
Throats raised in mourning.
posted by Ice Cream Socialist at 8:05 PM on September 15, 2022
posted by Ice Cream Socialist at 8:05 PM on September 15, 2022
The guy who is thought to be the head honcho of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is apparently recruiting prisoners, with the promise of pardons after half a year. Video of him addressing a bunch of assembled prisoners in person (unfortunately no English subtitles); the article I learned of this from (unfortunately paywalled, but note that you can get a free trial).
A few excerpts from the article that stood out to me (emphasis mine):
A few excerpts from the article that stood out to me (emphasis mine):
“In my private military company, I have planes of a few types, rocket artillery, tanks, and everything needed to attack effectively,” he told the group, adding that he would accept those convicted of crimes of sexual violence because “we understand that mistakes happen.”and:
The video ends with Prigozhin telling the prisoners that there were only two entities who could get them out of prison: “Allah and God, and that’s in a wooden box.”Plus an absurd statement -- would be pretty funny outside of the horrible context -- from Concord, the ostensibly legitimate company that he's known to own, and which in turn is thought to own the Wagner Group:
“And I will take you alive, but I won’t always return you alive,” he added. “So, what, guys, any questions?
“You have five minutes to think about it.”
“We can confirm that the person in the video bears a monstrous resemblance to Yevgeny Viktorovich [Prigozhin],” the statement reads. “And the person, resembling Yevgeny Viktorovich, very lucidly explains to simple people simple, understandable things.”posted by Flunkie at 12:14 AM on September 16, 2022 [8 favorites]
An impromptu cemetery with 440 bodies buried during the Russian occupation has been discovered in Izium, including mass graves. Some perished in Russian airstrikes before the city fell, investigators are working to identify others. Definitely not the last we'll hear about this.
In other news, Tajikistan and Kirgistan are apparently taking potshots at each other again, on top of ongoing hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia. I had the opportunity to talk to people working oin Baku recently and they're singularly unconcerned - "We're always at war in some way, nothing changed."
posted by I claim sanctuary at 5:01 AM on September 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
In other news, Tajikistan and Kirgistan are apparently taking potshots at each other again, on top of ongoing hostilities between Azerbaijan and Armenia. I had the opportunity to talk to people working oin Baku recently and they're singularly unconcerned - "We're always at war in some way, nothing changed."
posted by I claim sanctuary at 5:01 AM on September 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
Aren't Russian prisons a hotbed of drug-resistant TB? COVID was bad enough, but the scenario that's given me nightmares for years has been DR TB sweeping across the globe.
posted by sharp pointy objects at 6:41 AM on September 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by sharp pointy objects at 6:41 AM on September 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
The guy who is thought to be the head honcho of the Wagner Group, Yevgeny Prigozhin, is apparently recruiting prisoners, with the promise of pardons after half a year.
This tweet has a subtitled video.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:26 AM on September 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
This tweet has a subtitled video.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:26 AM on September 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
Teegeeack AV Club Secretary: it's time to go fishing.
Just conventional fish-fishing; magnet fishing is strongly discouraged.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:51 AM on September 16, 2022
Just conventional fish-fishing; magnet fishing is strongly discouraged.
posted by Stoneshop at 11:51 AM on September 16, 2022
The Parliament of Kyrgyzstan has just concluded an Emergency Meeting in which the Declaration of Martial Law and a General Mobilization was discussed amongst other issues related to the Heavy Fighting along the Tajikistani Border.Central Asia and the Caucasus both are taking what they can while Russia is otherwise occupied.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 1:00 PM on September 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
Oh, those poor cronies and bootlickers.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:27 PM on September 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
Russia has accused Ukraine of carrying out targeted strikes in the cities of Kherson and Luhansk against top local officials who have been collaborating with Moscow.Tough shit. Play with fire, expect to get burned.
posted by Stoneshop at 1:27 PM on September 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
attacking enemy agents? In the middle of a war?? My god what is this world coming to, they'll be targeting enemy SOLDIERS next just you wait and see
posted by rifflesby at 1:53 PM on September 16, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by rifflesby at 1:53 PM on September 16, 2022 [5 favorites]
Alessander Dugin, the hard liner, who has provided some of the ideological basis for Putinism has called for total mobilization Via WarTranslated. His daughter was recently blown up in a Moscow car bombing many think was aimed at him. It is unknown how much influence he actually has.
We see the whole stupidity of the Russian hard liners laid bare. That Russians have some special heroic quality that can defeat anyone. That all they have to do is fully mobilize and call up the young men, hand them a gun with a bent barrel, uncalibrated, iron sights and unreliable ammunition and send them to charge the weak, woke western LGBTQ NATO forces and Russia cannot lose.
It reminds me of some middle aged martial arts fan talking about how a Nth degree black belt can dodge bullets or parry them with a sword. Yeah sorry in the real world almost every time gun beats Karate.
posted by interogative mood at 4:03 PM on September 16, 2022 [7 favorites]
We see the whole stupidity of the Russian hard liners laid bare. That Russians have some special heroic quality that can defeat anyone. That all they have to do is fully mobilize and call up the young men, hand them a gun with a bent barrel, uncalibrated, iron sights and unreliable ammunition and send them to charge the weak, woke western LGBTQ NATO forces and Russia cannot lose.
It reminds me of some middle aged martial arts fan talking about how a Nth degree black belt can dodge bullets or parry them with a sword. Yeah sorry in the real world almost every time gun beats Karate.
posted by interogative mood at 4:03 PM on September 16, 2022 [7 favorites]
Oops sorry you brought machismo to an artillery fight!
posted by sharp pointy objects at 4:08 PM on September 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by sharp pointy objects at 4:08 PM on September 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
More reports of war crimes trickling in from liberated territory. Just.... Fucking war, Fucking Putin, fucking ogliarchs
posted by Jacen at 6:15 PM on September 16, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Jacen at 6:15 PM on September 16, 2022 [7 favorites]
I am hoping that in the modern communications environment this stuff will not be as easy to dodge. The Serbs and Rwandans eventually had to face their crimes. It is not just "fucking war", it is the forces of barbarism and complete disregard for human rights.
posted by Meatbomb at 7:42 PM on September 16, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by Meatbomb at 7:42 PM on September 16, 2022 [11 favorites]
Julia Davis on Twitter
Includes captioned video highlights.
There's always one guy who seems to go right up to the line of what you can't say.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:42 PM on September 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
All over Russian state TV, propagandists have been painstakingly painting the picture that Russian troops retreated after battling NATO—not Ukraine. One pundit made fun of the transparent plot to make Russia's defeats seem less humiliating, angering the Kremlin's mouthpieces.
Includes captioned video highlights.
There's always one guy who seems to go right up to the line of what you can't say.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:42 PM on September 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
The African American pictured in the Russian TV program is Malcom Nance Twitter, Wikipedia
posted by interogative mood at 11:10 PM on September 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 11:10 PM on September 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
some middle aged martial arts fan talking about how a Nth degree black belt can dodge bullets or parry them with a sword
Clearly nonsense. Those are feats that could only ever be pulled off by totally sweet ninjas getting pumped and flipping out.
posted by flabdablet at 11:14 PM on September 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
Clearly nonsense. Those are feats that could only ever be pulled off by totally sweet ninjas getting pumped and flipping out.
posted by flabdablet at 11:14 PM on September 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
Yeah sorry in the real world almost every time gun beats Karate.
almost
so you're saying it can be done?
(time to go brush up my resume: career as a propagandist and disseminator of misinformation / FOXnetwork here I come!)
posted by From Bklyn at 3:26 AM on September 17, 2022
almost
so you're saying it can be done?
(time to go brush up my resume: career as a propagandist and disseminator of misinformation / FOXnetwork here I come!)
posted by From Bklyn at 3:26 AM on September 17, 2022
A Twitter thread on military needs from on a recent UA trip by François Heisbourg of the IISS.
posted by Harald74 at 4:46 AM on September 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 4:46 AM on September 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
Oscar Jonsson from the Swedish Defence University: How Russia Weaponizes Soft Power
posted by Harald74 at 5:00 AM on September 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 5:00 AM on September 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
A Twitter thread on military needs from on a recent UA trip by François Heisbourg of the IISS.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:53 AM on September 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
1. Air defense notably vs cruise & other missiles is now on top of 🇺🇦's list of concerns & therefore of materiel acquisition policy. The US (Patriot, NASAMS), UK-France-Italy (the MBDA countries, as it were. SAMP-T came up)With Russia picking up more Shahed-136 kamikaze drones from Iran we should be getting Patriot batteries to Ukraine ASAP without question.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:53 AM on September 17, 2022 [2 favorites]
Have the Israelis relented on handing over Iron Dome by any chance?
posted by acb at 8:24 AM on September 17, 2022
posted by acb at 8:24 AM on September 17, 2022
Former Zelenskyy spokesperson Iuliia Mendel on Twitter
They have not.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:38 AM on September 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
U.S. Defense Department spokesman Patrick Ryder said that the first 2 batteries of NASAMS surface-to-air missile systems will be transferred to 🇺🇦 within the next 2 months. The system defends against UAVs, helicopters, cruise missiles, unmanned combat aerial vehicles, aircraftHave the Israelis relented on handing over Iron Dome by any chance?
They have not.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:38 AM on September 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
Perun explains Ukraine's counter-offensives.
posted by Bee'sWing at 11:31 AM on September 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Bee'sWing at 11:31 AM on September 17, 2022 [3 favorites]
Ukraine is building its own Iron Dome. This US company is key.
posted by clavdivs at 3:07 PM on September 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by clavdivs at 3:07 PM on September 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
Meanwhile, Finnish public broadcaster YLE reports that Russia has been transferring old anti-aircraft missiles away from St. Petersburg, presumably to use them in Ukraine. Excerpt:
posted by Kattullus at 12:35 AM on September 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
Satellite images obtained by Yle indicate that Russia has been moving a large number of anti-aircraft missiles toward Ukraine, including from as far away as St. Petersburg, one of the most crucial areas for Russian air defence.The article then explains that these old anti-aircraft missiles are mainly being fired at civilian targets.
Satellite images reveal that both mobile firing platforms and missiles disappeared during the summer from a base in the Zelenogorsk (Terijoki) area on the Karelian Isthmus, northwest of St Petersburg, among others.
The transfer of equipment has not previously been publicly reported in Russia or western countries.
St Petersburg—Russia's second-most important city—has long been surrounded by a protective ring of 14 anti-aircraft missile bases. Now several of them stand empty.
"Based on the pictures, four anti-aircraft bases have been emptied of equipment," military expert Maj. (Ret.) Marko Eklund told Yle.
Eklund, who has monitored the Russian armed forces for more than 20 years, analysed the satellite images at Yle's request.
posted by Kattullus at 12:35 AM on September 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
The title ("It’s Time to Prepare for a Ukrainian Victory") of this piece in the Atlantic by Anne Applebaum is a bit misleading and I think she oversells the certainty that a failure to achieve his objectives in Ukraine will necessarily lead to the end of Putin's hold on power in Russia but, those objections aside, I think she raises some interesting points.
posted by Nerd of the North at 1:59 AM on September 18, 2022 [10 favorites]
When I write that Americans and Europeans need to prepare for a Ukrainian victory, this is what I mean: We must expect that a Ukrainian victory, and certainly a victory in Ukraine’s understanding of the term, also brings about the end of Putin’s regime.The possibility of victory, of some sort, for Ukraine is conceivable and continues to increase. It's to be hoped for, but far from certain at this point. And if it IS achieved certain other things are likely to follow. It's worth thinking about what those are likely to be so as to be as prepared for them as we can be.
To be clear: This is not a prediction; it’s a warning. Many things about the current Russian political system are strange, and one of the strangest is the total absence of a mechanism for succession. Not only do we have no idea who would or could replace Putin; we have no idea who would or could choose that person. In the Soviet Union there was a Politburo, a group of people that could theoretically make such a decision, and very occasionally did. By contrast, there is no transition mechanism in Russia.
posted by Nerd of the North at 1:59 AM on September 18, 2022 [10 favorites]
Russia’s underperforming military capability may be key to its downfall
Analysis by a Royal United Services Institute senior research fellow. It touches on all points of the abbreviation DOTMLPF: doctrine, organisation, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel and facilities, as they apply to the Russian army. One particular aspect to highlight:
Analysis by a Royal United Services Institute senior research fellow. It touches on all points of the abbreviation DOTMLPF: doctrine, organisation, training, materiel, leadership and education, personnel and facilities, as they apply to the Russian army. One particular aspect to highlight:
Perhaps one of the greatest weaknesses of the country’s military system, though, is training. First, it simply does not do enough of it. At the beginning of the war, for example, there were fewer than 100 fully trained Russian pilots bordering Ukraine, despite Russia having at least 317 combat aircraft deployedto the theatre.posted by Stoneshop at 3:09 AM on September 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
Second, Russian soldiers tend to receive training that is narrowly bounded to their assigned task. This makes these troops inflexible, lacking situational awareness of what is being done around them and unable to cover one another’s tasks.
Third, the Russians do most of their training in their units. As the units are in Ukraine, there is very little capacity to train new recruits before they are sent to war.
Many things about the current Russian political system are strange, and one of the strangest is the total absence of a mechanism for succession.
Putin's successor may be chosen by the Chinese Communist Party, as a vastly weakened Russia becomes essentially a Chinese client state.
posted by acb at 3:29 AM on September 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
Putin's successor may be chosen by the Chinese Communist Party, as a vastly weakened Russia becomes essentially a Chinese client state.
posted by acb at 3:29 AM on September 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
Anne Applebaum writes:
According to Wikipedia:
If the reasoning to ignore this is "Yeah, but that wouldn't happen - some group of strongmen would get together and just install one"... well, maybe so, but it seems at least pretty likely that they'd do so through the pro forma usage of the legal mechanism... just like they would have done (and I think did) with the Politburo. And even if they'd go outside the law, I'm not sure why she's giving the benefit of the doubt on that to the "theoretically-able-to-make-such-a-decision" Politburo, but implicitly dismissing the idea that it could now be done through the existing law, even if only "theoretically".
posted by Flunkie at 4:37 AM on September 18, 2022 [6 favorites]
In the Soviet Union there was a Politburo, a group of people that could theoretically make such a decision, and very occasionally did. By contrast, there is no transition mechanism in Russia.Where is she getting this information from?
According to Wikipedia:
Vacancies in the office of president may arise under several possible circumstances: death, resignation and removal from office. In all cases when the president is unable to perform their duties, their powers are temporarily transferred to the prime minister until the new president takes office.So, Mikhail Mishustin becomes the acting president, presumably until the next presidential election (scheduled for 2024, though I'm not sure whether or not they could/would just call an early election in cases like this).
If the reasoning to ignore this is "Yeah, but that wouldn't happen - some group of strongmen would get together and just install one"... well, maybe so, but it seems at least pretty likely that they'd do so through the pro forma usage of the legal mechanism... just like they would have done (and I think did) with the Politburo. And even if they'd go outside the law, I'm not sure why she's giving the benefit of the doubt on that to the "theoretically-able-to-make-such-a-decision" Politburo, but implicitly dismissing the idea that it could now be done through the existing law, even if only "theoretically".
posted by Flunkie at 4:37 AM on September 18, 2022 [6 favorites]
@ian_matveev , who's one of the smartest Russian-language commentators on the Ukraine war, has posted a very interesting and detailed thread discussing the reasons for Russia's defeat east of Kharkiv. An English translation, with his permission, follows (LONG thread ahead!)
Why was the Russian army defeated and forced to flee the Kharkiv region? Not only local mistakes and a great attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine were to blame, but also the fundamental problems of the Russian grouping in Ukraine.
posted by adamvasco at 7:41 AM on September 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
Why was the Russian army defeated and forced to flee the Kharkiv region? Not only local mistakes and a great attack by the Armed Forces of Ukraine were to blame, but also the fundamental problems of the Russian grouping in Ukraine.
posted by adamvasco at 7:41 AM on September 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
So, Mikhail Mishustin becomes the acting president, presumably until the next presidential election (scheduled for 2024, though I'm not sure whether or not they could/would just call an early election in cases like this).What you're describing is the functioning of a normal democracy, which Russia is not. From "Understanding the Factors That Will Impact the Succession to Vladimir Putin as Russian President" (RAND) :
During his tenure as president and prime minister, Putin built up his own power and diminished the power of most other institutions and individuals. He has come to embody the Russian state personally, a concept captured by then–Kremlin Deputy Chief of Staff Vyacheslav Volodin, who told the Valdai Discussion Club in Sochi in October 2014 that “[s]o long as there is Putin, there will be Russia. Without Putin, there is no Russia.”and
A highly improbable scenario—at least given today’s realities—would be a more-or-less free election in which multiple candidates would be permitted to contest the future leadership and direction of the country. In the words of Olga Kryshtanovskaya: “In our system there are always elections, but the real choice is made by a small group of people, not 140 million.”posted by mazola at 8:06 AM on September 18, 2022
The Gurdian is reporting from the Russian town Belgorod, close to the border: ‘They won’t invade, will they?’ Fears rise in Russian city that Ukraine war could cross border
posted by Harald74 at 8:17 AM on September 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 8:17 AM on September 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
Belgorod is a city, btw, I have no idea why I mentally classified it as a town.
posted by Harald74 at 8:21 AM on September 18, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 8:21 AM on September 18, 2022
mazola: What you're describing is the functioning of a normal democracy, which Russia is not.
Oh, whatever power is there besides Putin will probably make it look like a normal democratic process, selecting a successor once Putin steps down/out of a window/into his grave *.
To the extent they can be bothered, that is. Which is likely not very, given the extraordinary circumstance caused by Putin's stepping down/out of a window/into his grave.
* cross out as appropriate
posted by Stoneshop at 8:54 AM on September 18, 2022
Oh, whatever power is there besides Putin will probably make it look like a normal democratic process, selecting a successor once Putin steps down/out of a window/into his grave *.
To the extent they can be bothered, that is. Which is likely not very, given the extraordinary circumstance caused by Putin's stepping down/out of a window/into his grave.
* cross out as appropriate
posted by Stoneshop at 8:54 AM on September 18, 2022
Harald74: The Gurdian is reporting from the Russian town Belgorod
posted by Stoneshop at 9:09 AM on September 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
“Every day, dozens of the boys come, there are so many of them now [since the counteroffensive],” says Marina, who sells camouflage items in the market. “Everyone has these glum faces. It is more tense now.They're probably buying the gear that was disappeared from the army's stores over the past years.
“I see them buying these things, and I wonder why they don’t already have [them],” she also says, adding that the troops are buying basic food and cooking implements that she expected would be supplied by the army.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:09 AM on September 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
File under “It is better for Russia to be feard than it is for there to be food in the pot”: Meanwhile on RT's show "Beautiful Russia," propagandist argues that Russia shouldn't worry about the way events like Bucha are being perceived or covered in the West. Instead, he says, Russia should lay into that: "Yes, that's how we are... We'll show you even more. Fear us!"
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 9:20 AM on September 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 9:20 AM on September 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
Russia’s underperforming military capability may be key to its downfall
This is such a funny headline. "Russia's military failure is probably due to failures in military performance." yeah, military/academic professionals need to nail down exactly what kind of failure it is, it's a good read.
Something I've been wondering about is, when peace is eventually achieved ... militarizing and controlling the border between Russia and Ukraine will not be fun. That's, uh, that would actually be a pretty significant cost, and not the kind of cost that produces more wealth (like investment in infrastructure). It's just a cost, that would drag on the economies of both countries. I don't know how big a deal it is, though (I don't know what the Russia-EU borders are like right now). It just seems like it will make peace complicated. I wonder if it also means that getting to a good peace, a positive peace instead of just a repression of tension, might be worth the cost.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 12:19 PM on September 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
This is such a funny headline. "Russia's military failure is probably due to failures in military performance." yeah, military/academic professionals need to nail down exactly what kind of failure it is, it's a good read.
Something I've been wondering about is, when peace is eventually achieved ... militarizing and controlling the border between Russia and Ukraine will not be fun. That's, uh, that would actually be a pretty significant cost, and not the kind of cost that produces more wealth (like investment in infrastructure). It's just a cost, that would drag on the economies of both countries. I don't know how big a deal it is, though (I don't know what the Russia-EU borders are like right now). It just seems like it will make peace complicated. I wonder if it also means that getting to a good peace, a positive peace instead of just a repression of tension, might be worth the cost.
posted by Rainbo Vagrant at 12:19 PM on September 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
I wonder if it also means that getting to a good peace, a positive peace instead of just a repression of tension, might be worth the cost.
There's not a "good peace" to be had once one side has declared their intent to genocide the other, and put their best effort into executing that. Not for generations. Short of the aggressor being utterly conquered, which isn't going to happen in the case of a nuclear power.
The actual solution would be to welcome Ukraine into NATO so that their borders can be more normally fortified.
posted by tavella at 12:58 PM on September 18, 2022 [12 favorites]
There's not a "good peace" to be had once one side has declared their intent to genocide the other, and put their best effort into executing that. Not for generations. Short of the aggressor being utterly conquered, which isn't going to happen in the case of a nuclear power.
The actual solution would be to welcome Ukraine into NATO so that their borders can be more normally fortified.
posted by tavella at 12:58 PM on September 18, 2022 [12 favorites]
Meanwhile on RT's show "Beautiful Russia," propagandist argues that Russia shouldn't worry about the way events like Bucha are being perceived or covered in the West. Instead, he says, Russia should lay into that: "Yes, that's how we are... We'll show you even more. Fear us!"Sounds like they've been watching Newsmax or similar..
Flippancy aside, I am not seriously contending that they learned such behavior from our extremist media. But I would invite people who find the sentiment expressed above appalling (correctly, imho) to reflect momentarily on how much similar sentiment floats around in the discourse of their own country, whichever that happens to be, and to resolve to push back and de-normalize it when any opportunity to do so occurs.
posted by Nerd of the North at 1:37 PM on September 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
Oderint dum metuant. "Let them hate as long as they fear." That policy worked out so well for Caligula, after all.
posted by SPrintF at 1:45 PM on September 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by SPrintF at 1:45 PM on September 18, 2022 [5 favorites]
Meanwhile, a small act of defiance from a Russian celebrity:
Iconic Russian singer Alla Pugacheva, hugely popular since Soviet times, says she wants to be placed on Russia's foreign agents list in solidarity with her husband who has been designated as one.posted by Nerd of the North at 2:30 PM on September 18, 2022 [10 favorites]
The statement by Pugacheva on Instagram on Sunday is a notable slap from a prominent figure at Russian authorities, who have stifled dissent in recent years.
Pugacheva's husband, singer and TV presenter Maxim Galkin, who has criticized Russia's sending troops into Ukraine, was added to the foreign agents register on Saturday by the justice ministry for allegedly conducting political activities on behalf of Ukraine and receiving Ukrainian funding.
I was not even remotely saying that Russia is "a normal democracy". I was saying that Russia has a defined means of succession under their law (just like the Soviet Union did), and they could follow it (just like the Soviet Union did), even if only in a sham, performative way (just like the Soviet Union did).So, Mikhail Mishustin becomes the acting president, presumably until the next presidential election (scheduled for 2024, though I'm not sure whether or not they could/would just call an early election in cases like this).What you're describing is the functioning of a normal democracy, which Russia is not.
That is, I was objecting to Applebaum's willingness to accept that the Soviet Union had a defined way to do this, which they could (in her words) "theoretically" follow, but her simultaneous insistence that Russia does not (not even "theoretically").
As I wrote immediately after the part of my comment that you quoted:
If the reasoning to ignore this is "Yeah, but that wouldn't happen - some group of strongmen would get together and just install one"... well, maybe so, but it seems at least pretty likely that they'd do so through the pro forma usage of the legal mechanism... just like they would have done (and I think did) with the Politburo. And even if they'd go outside the law, I'm not sure why she's giving the benefit of the doubt on that to the "theoretically-able-to-make-such-a-decision" Politburo, but implicitly dismissing the idea that it could now be done through the existing law, even if only "theoretically".posted by Flunkie at 3:51 PM on September 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
Applebaum, IIRC, has a familial connection to Russia and has been reporting on it for over twenty years. I agree that she should have explained her assertion, but I am — tentatively — more willing to assume it's essentially correct than I am to assume that your quick consultation with Wikipedia proves her wrong.
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 4:00 PM on September 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Ivan Fyodorovich at 4:00 PM on September 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
Really? You suspect that Wikipedia is incorrect in the basic fact of existence or non-existence of a defined means of succession in Russian law?
posted by Flunkie at 4:08 PM on September 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Flunkie at 4:08 PM on September 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
I think the charitable reading is that Applebaum is saying that there's no larger power structure than can help transition things after Putin is gone - ie, there's no clear group of powerful insiders to manage things smoothly, and it's going to be a chaotic free-for-all instead.
posted by sagc at 4:17 PM on September 18, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by sagc at 4:17 PM on September 18, 2022 [9 favorites]
I don't really know how to make it more clear that I am not objecting to the idea that Russia may be less likely to performatively follow their law than the Soviet Union was. I'll shut up about this now, but c'mon.
posted by Flunkie at 4:19 PM on September 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Flunkie at 4:19 PM on September 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
Applebaum isn't saying that there isn't a legal mechanism for succession; she is saying that there is no successor in line for Putin's place as autocrat -- no one who has been groomed and positioned to take over and carry things on -- nor is there a structure in place for bringing that person forward. If Putin dies or is deposed, there would be a power vacuum, which is why there keeps being speculation that the alternative to Putin might be a military junta.
posted by Dip Flash at 4:56 PM on September 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Dip Flash at 4:56 PM on September 18, 2022 [4 favorites]
In the Soviet Union, when the leader died the media would suddenly show nothing but Swan Lake until the Politburo had sorted things and a new leader was chosen.
If ballet replaces Russian news on television, something is up.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 5:11 PM on September 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
If ballet replaces Russian news on television, something is up.
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 5:11 PM on September 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
If a military junta takes over, oddly, that might not be the worst thing in the short term. The military appears to be in shambles. Maybe they are all not incompetent and can see how fucked they are and may not want to extend the losing? It’s a weird position to agree with, tbh
posted by Windopaene at 5:41 PM on September 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Windopaene at 5:41 PM on September 18, 2022 [1 favorite]
The military won't be taking over. It's too weak and run by a Tuvan. Russians would never accept him as a leader. If Putin is taken down from the inside it'll be driven by the Siloviki.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:13 PM on September 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 6:13 PM on September 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
"The military is run by a Tuvan, and the Russians would never accept him as a leader" doesn't really seem terribly important in terms of whether or not there's a military coup. In the event of the government of Russia being militarily overthrown, it seems to me like Shoigu will be a target of, not the leader of, the coup. And not even only because he's Tuvan.
posted by Flunkie at 6:47 PM on September 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Flunkie at 6:47 PM on September 18, 2022 [3 favorites]
If anything it'd be one of the security services doing the coup, which is why the occasional rumours of arrests among them, but it's been thirty years since the USSR got the boot and the next generation cane of age in the gangster free for all 90s, so I'm not sure Politburo analogies are right. More like natch, Russia in the 90s - which included a serious coup attempt, utterly corrupt privatisation/stealing of national assets and guns in the streets. That's more recent in memory, I think.
In refugee news, UNICEF is apparently doing a stellar job financing extra support for Ukrainian children in Polish schools, as opposed to our government. Lots of kids finished off the year in remote Ukrainian schools and now signed up for stationary Polish ones. Luckily most of them are primary aged and we have a low number of young students compared to previous demographic waves, so there's room, but a teacher shortage is biting badly. This is where UNICEF money comes in, allowing schools to offer better wages. And 40% of all companies started in the last 6 months were started by Ukrainians.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:03 PM on September 18, 2022 [8 favorites]
In refugee news, UNICEF is apparently doing a stellar job financing extra support for Ukrainian children in Polish schools, as opposed to our government. Lots of kids finished off the year in remote Ukrainian schools and now signed up for stationary Polish ones. Luckily most of them are primary aged and we have a low number of young students compared to previous demographic waves, so there's room, but a teacher shortage is biting badly. This is where UNICEF money comes in, allowing schools to offer better wages. And 40% of all companies started in the last 6 months were started by Ukrainians.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 10:03 PM on September 18, 2022 [8 favorites]
In Russia there is also an entirely separate military that reports directly to Putin - the Rosgvardiya. The traditional military led by Shoigu is being blamed for the current losses.
posted by meowzilla at 10:20 PM on September 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by meowzilla at 10:20 PM on September 18, 2022 [2 favorites]
From today's ISW assessment, at the end of a bit about the various ad hoc groups that are increasingly being used in addition to, or in the place of, the actual Russian military (emphasis mine):
posted by Flunkie at 10:45 PM on September 18, 2022 [6 favorites]
All these groups have different levels of military training, decentralized command structures, and different perceptions of the war and motivations to fight, which makes conflict and poor unit coordination more probable. The one thing they have in common is wholly inadequate training and preparation for combat.lol
posted by Flunkie at 10:45 PM on September 18, 2022 [6 favorites]
Jesus, that ISW assessment reads like the list of fractions in a Fallout game.
posted by Harald74 at 11:37 PM on September 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:37 PM on September 18, 2022 [7 favorites]
Ukrainan forces has captured an intact T-90M tank. That's the most modern tank in the Russian arsenal*, delivered to units from 2020 onwards. The padding on the tank is a system called Nadidka, and is to decrease the tank's thermal and radar signature, making it harder to observe and possibly making it proof to "lock-on" from Javelin and NLAW missiles. I guess we get to investigate that claim now.
*) The T-14 Armata is just a handful of prototypes at this stage, most often seen in parades.
posted by Harald74 at 4:21 AM on September 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
*) The T-14 Armata is just a handful of prototypes at this stage, most often seen in parades.
posted by Harald74 at 4:21 AM on September 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
Peter Zeihan on Russian nukes and the Ukraine war.
Summary: unlikely for a few reasons
Tactical/battlefield nukes are unlikely because the Russian military goals are to conquer all of Ukraine so that they can move past that territory into Romania & Poland, and then station troops in the gaps in the mountains there. Nuking the territory you aspire to have your troops occupy is counter-productive.
A strategic/city-leveling strike against the US would mean the end of Russia bc America’s nuclear arsenal works, and we would flatten Moscow where all the Russian elites and Putin live. In Russia, there is Moscow and there is everything else. And the everything else is sparsely populated and of low value.
A strategic strike against a nations supplying arms to Ukraine could be contemplated. So Berlin, Warsaw, London, Paris, etc. That would be an attempt to stem the flow of arms and materiel. But The Ukrainians have just captured more abandoned Russian gear than the entire suite of EVERYTHING the West has sent them. And it’s stuff the Ukrainians know how to use and don’t need to be trained on. So what would a strike of that kind achieve?
When the Soviet Union fell, the Kremlin leadership met and contemplated just giving away their nukes and letting America deal with the proliferation issues for the next 50 years. They decided against that path. Putin is a product of that era’s Kremlin. Even in defeat, going “Full Armageddon” in a world where Russia still exists (however .
What happens if Putin decides to push the big red button… and nothing happens bc the nuclear arsenal is in the same shape as the army? How do you respond to someone who tries to nuke you, but fails?
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 7:58 AM on September 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
Summary: unlikely for a few reasons
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 7:58 AM on September 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
EDIT: Even in defeat, going “Full Armageddon” in a world where Russia still exists (however reduced) doesn’t’ seem his style..
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 8:05 AM on September 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Pirate-Bartender-Zombie-Monkey at 8:05 AM on September 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
Would it help if we yelled "stop with the nuke talk?" Being polite doesn't seem to be enough in this thread.
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:17 AM on September 19, 2022 [28 favorites]
posted by seanmpuckett at 8:17 AM on September 19, 2022 [28 favorites]
From today's ISW assessment,
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:40 AM on September 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
The Luhansk and Donetsk People’s Republics (LNR and DNR) have both previously refused to fight for each other’s territory.Even in the most desperate of wartime where you'd think coming together would be the order of the day, right wingers and their FYGM is still alive and well.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 8:40 AM on September 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
Actual ideological rightwingers often do have solidarity (think Guernica or Operation Condor). These aren't even committed fascists, but local mafia warlords pressed into service as puppet governments. Beyond self-preservation and self-enrichment, there is nothing there.
posted by acb at 8:55 AM on September 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by acb at 8:55 AM on September 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
Here's a good thread / explainer on the factions within Russian forces.
posted by taz at 9:21 AM on September 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by taz at 9:21 AM on September 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
oops! I see adamvasco already linked this above! In case anyone didn't catch it, it's very interesting.
posted by taz at 9:25 AM on September 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by taz at 9:25 AM on September 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
In Russia there is also an entirely separate military that reports directly to Putin - the Rosgvardiya.
But those guys are even less of a fighting force than any of the other chunks of Russian army; they're more like the WW2 Red Army Commissars that made sure the main force moved forward when commanded to do so.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:59 AM on September 19, 2022
But those guys are even less of a fighting force than any of the other chunks of Russian army; they're more like the WW2 Red Army Commissars that made sure the main force moved forward when commanded to do so.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:59 AM on September 19, 2022
"In Russia, there is Moscow and there is everything else. And the everything else is sparsely populated and of low value"
*cries in St. Petersburg*
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 10:10 AM on September 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
*cries in St. Petersburg*
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 10:10 AM on September 19, 2022 [14 favorites]
You mean the capital of future Eurussia (along with Kalininberg)?
Russia seen transferring anti-aircraft missiles from St. Petersburg to Ukraine
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:17 AM on September 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
Russia seen transferring anti-aircraft missiles from St. Petersburg to Ukraine
posted by snuffleupagus at 11:17 AM on September 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
But The Ukrainians have just captured more abandoned Russian gear than the entire suite of EVERYTHING the West has sent them.
That's when you look at quantity. And of course that's a large boost.
But then there's also quality, another factor entirely: 50 artillery pieces with a range of 20km do not equal 20 pieces with a range of 50km. Especially when at 50km those pieces are still impressively accurate.
And there's gear the Ukrainians won't be finding in an overrun storage compound or abandoned in a field: (the equivalents of) HARM, ATACMS or NASAMS, or just in small numbers: radars, electronic counter-measures and the like.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:15 PM on September 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
That's when you look at quantity. And of course that's a large boost.
But then there's also quality, another factor entirely: 50 artillery pieces with a range of 20km do not equal 20 pieces with a range of 50km. Especially when at 50km those pieces are still impressively accurate.
And there's gear the Ukrainians won't be finding in an overrun storage compound or abandoned in a field: (the equivalents of) HARM, ATACMS or NASAMS, or just in small numbers: radars, electronic counter-measures and the like.
posted by Stoneshop at 12:15 PM on September 19, 2022 [3 favorites]
I'm sure the Ukrainians will be able to put captured Russian equipment to some good use, though, and more importantly it denies the Russians the use of it. 50 fewer artillery pieces with a 20km range are that many fewer than can shell Ukrainian civilians (if, sadly, not fewer enough).
posted by Gelatin at 12:21 PM on September 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Gelatin at 12:21 PM on September 19, 2022 [4 favorites]
Not to diminish the accomplishments of the Ukrainian forces or the remarkable volume of the equipment left behind — but it's possible that a lot of the artillery and anything else mounting a large gun may have already been sidelined for utility uses or parts cannibalization due to the endurance of their barrels being used up (or other failures not repairable at the tip of the spear, with the resources available); beyond want of ammo, or fuel.
That said, it's entirely possible that Ukraine itself has greater capacity to produce barrels and etc than Russia does at this point; certainly that's so when considering external support. (And same with ammo.) And they can cannibalize what's not fixable just as the Russians do. Quite the haul either way.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:40 PM on September 19, 2022
That said, it's entirely possible that Ukraine itself has greater capacity to produce barrels and etc than Russia does at this point; certainly that's so when considering external support. (And same with ammo.) And they can cannibalize what's not fixable just as the Russians do. Quite the haul either way.
posted by snuffleupagus at 12:40 PM on September 19, 2022
If the Ukrainians have shown us nothing else, even from long before this war started, it is that they are amazing at improvising with things to make them do what they need. Weren't a lot of the tractor-firmware-cracking downloads coming from there for years?
posted by hippybear at 12:51 PM on September 19, 2022 [9 favorites]
posted by hippybear at 12:51 PM on September 19, 2022 [9 favorites]
but it's possible that a lot of the artillery and anything else mounting a large gun may have already been sidelined for utility uses or parts cannibalization
The Ukraine Weapons Tracker project has been posting photos of a lot of what was captured, and while some indeed has been used for parts cannibalization already (example), lots of it is in good working order and is (apparently) ready to use, including items that they consider rare and high value.
If the Ukrainians have shown us nothing else, even from long before this war started, it is that they are amazing at improvising with things to make them do what they need.
The headline of this article kind of sums it up: US Soldiers Provide Telemaintenance as Ukrainians MacGyver Their Weapons
posted by Dip Flash at 1:58 PM on September 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
The Ukraine Weapons Tracker project has been posting photos of a lot of what was captured, and while some indeed has been used for parts cannibalization already (example), lots of it is in good working order and is (apparently) ready to use, including items that they consider rare and high value.
If the Ukrainians have shown us nothing else, even from long before this war started, it is that they are amazing at improvising with things to make them do what they need.
The headline of this article kind of sums it up: US Soldiers Provide Telemaintenance as Ukrainians MacGyver Their Weapons
posted by Dip Flash at 1:58 PM on September 19, 2022 [7 favorites]
Retired general Mick Ryan again: The last two weeks have answered a central question of the Russo-Ukraine War; can Ukraine undertake the offensives required to liberate their people & reoccupy their territory? They have answered this question emphatically with their Kharkiv offensive. 1/19
posted by Harald74 at 9:43 AM on September 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 9:43 AM on September 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
Shoigu and Putin to address the nation shortly.
This is after the Duma today ratified a new conscription law, with harsh punishments for avoiding conscription or deserting, and "referendums" apparently planned for the two "republics" in Russian-occupied Ukraine.
posted by Harald74 at 9:50 AM on September 20, 2022 [6 favorites]
This is after the Duma today ratified a new conscription law, with harsh punishments for avoiding conscription or deserting, and "referendums" apparently planned for the two "republics" in Russian-occupied Ukraine.
posted by Harald74 at 9:50 AM on September 20, 2022 [6 favorites]
There's a rumor going around Russian telegram that as of midnight males aged 18-65 won't be allowed to leave Russia and everyone is freaking the fuck out.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:52 AM on September 20, 2022 [10 favorites]
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 9:52 AM on September 20, 2022 [10 favorites]
Please, Russia, annex us, quickly.
posted by Stoneshop at 9:52 AM on September 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
In a post on his Telegram page, Medvedev, the deputy head of Russia’s security council, said that the referendums would “completely change the vector of Russia’s development for decades”. They would also prevent a future Russian leader from reversing Russian support for the Ukrainian regions, he wrote.*snork* (see below)
“That is why these referendums are so feared in Kyiv and in the west,” he wrote. “That is why they need to be carried out.”
In a response, Dmytro Kuleba, Ukraine’s foreign minister, wrote that the referendums would not prevent Ukraine from continuing to “liberate its territories.”With the first Luhansk towns liberated and the Russian occupation generally not quite going to plan, the collaborators are clearly getting a bit anxious.
“Sham ‘referendums’ will not change anything”, wrote Kuleba. “Neither will any hybrid ‘mobilisation’. Russia has been and remains an aggressor illegally occupying parts of Ukrainian land. Ukraine has every right to liberate its territories and will keep liberating them no matter what Russia says.”
posted by Stoneshop at 9:52 AM on September 20, 2022 [3 favorites]
NEXTA on Twitter
❗️The #US Department of Justice has asked Congress to legalize the transfer of frozen #Russian assets to #Ukraine in response to the announced "referendums".posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:59 AM on September 20, 2022 [16 favorites]
At least $ 300 billion of such assets are blocked in the United States.
The ISW was skeptical about annexation.
Urgent discussion on September 19 among Russia’s proxies of the need for Russia to immediately annex Luhansk and Donetsk oblasts (much of the latter of which is not under Russian control) suggests that Ukraine’s ongoing northern counter-offensive is panicking proxy forces and some Kremlin decision-makers. The legislatures of Russia’s proxies in occupied Ukraine, the Donetsk and Luhansk People’s Republics (DNR and LNR), each called on their leadership to “immediately” hold a referendum on recognizing the DNR and LNR as Russian subjects. Russian propagandist and RT Editor-in-Chief Margarita Simonyan spoke glowingly of the call, referring to it as the “Crimean scenario.” She wrote that by recognizing occupied Ukrainian land as Russian territory, Russia could more easily threaten NATO with retaliatory strikes for Ukrainian counterattacks, “untying Russia’s hands in all respects]posted by TheophileEscargot at 11:09 AM on September 20, 2022 [6 favorites]
This approach is incoherent. Russian forces do not control all of Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts. Annexing the claimed territories of the DNR and LNR would, therefore, have Russia annex oblasts that would be by Kremlin definition partially ”occupied” by legitimate Ukrainian authorities and advancing Ukrainian forces. Ukrainian strikes into Russian-annexed Crimea clearly demonstrate that Ukrainian attacks on Russia’s illegally annexed territory do not automatically trigger Russian retaliation against NATO, as Simonyan would have her readers believe. Partial annexation at this stage would also place the Kremlin in the strange position of demanding that Ukrainian forces unoccupy “Russian” territory, and the humiliating position of being unable to enforce that demand. It remains very unclear that Russian President Vladimir Putin would be willing to place himself in such a bind for the dubious benefit of making it easier to threaten NATO or Ukraine with escalation he remains highly unlikely to conduct at this stage.
Faytuks News Δ on Twitter
Includes screenshot of a translation of the linked Telegram post.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:59 AM on September 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
"There will be no general mobilization,", Andrey Kartapolov, chairman of the State Duma Committee on Defense says. At the same time, he states that martial law "could be introduced in some places" https://t.me/bazabazon/13282
Includes screenshot of a translation of the linked Telegram post.
posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 11:59 AM on September 20, 2022 [2 favorites]
Putin and Shoigu never showed up for their address to the nation. Russian pool reporters waited for a couple of hours. Supposedly Putin's doing an hour-long speech at 9am tomorrow, no mention if Shoigu's part of it.
Any Kremlinologists know what an unplanned delay like this means? Dissension at the top of the ranks? Last minute change of plans? Just a weird power move?
posted by echo target at 1:32 PM on September 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
Any Kremlinologists know what an unplanned delay like this means? Dissension at the top of the ranks? Last minute change of plans? Just a weird power move?
posted by echo target at 1:32 PM on September 20, 2022 [4 favorites]
I’ll take “Shoigu falls out of a window” for 20
posted by From Bklyn at 1:46 PM on September 20, 2022 [13 favorites]
posted by From Bklyn at 1:46 PM on September 20, 2022 [13 favorites]
echo target: Any Kremlinologists know what an unplanned delay like this means? Dissension at the top of the ranks? Last minute change of plans? Just a weird power move?
I'm not a Kremlinologist, but it's pretty obvious to everyone, even Putin, probably, that the success of Ukraine's offensive in the northeast of Ukraine makes the Russian regime vulnerable. Those within the ruling circles who opposed the war will feel emboldened, which makes war supporters double down. There's clearly a lot of chaos in the halls of power in Moscow and under those kinds of conditions, Putin and his confidantes will feel like they're under pressure to make the right move. If they get spooked about a course of action, they will retreat and find a new one. But right now almost every possible decision will piss someone off.
posted by Kattullus at 2:17 PM on September 20, 2022 [9 favorites]
I'm not a Kremlinologist, but it's pretty obvious to everyone, even Putin, probably, that the success of Ukraine's offensive in the northeast of Ukraine makes the Russian regime vulnerable. Those within the ruling circles who opposed the war will feel emboldened, which makes war supporters double down. There's clearly a lot of chaos in the halls of power in Moscow and under those kinds of conditions, Putin and his confidantes will feel like they're under pressure to make the right move. If they get spooked about a course of action, they will retreat and find a new one. But right now almost every possible decision will piss someone off.
posted by Kattullus at 2:17 PM on September 20, 2022 [9 favorites]
"I’ll take “Shoigu falls out of a window” for 20"
When Shoigu shows up dead, there's been a massive change in power/outlook. As someone noted above, Shoigu is Tuvan, which means that he isn't a credible choice to lead a coup -- Russian leaders must be Slavs (at least plausibly). The reason Shoigu can be allowed to be in charge of the military is literally that he cannot run a coup; he depends on Putin's patronage because he's from a minority ethnic group.
To replace him at all, Putin would need someone with plausible military service who hasn't been stained by any of the Ukrainian defeats. To replace him in the current climate, Putin needs a Slav. (I did wonder if Putin had been floating Kadyrov, a Chechen, but if so, that failed. Kadyrov hasn't been publicly on-side -- which might have just been agitating against Shoigu -- but he's also been outed in the West as a coward who hides in his palaces and manufactures photo ops. He no longer has the fear factor.) But it's increasingly hard to think of someone with enough military leadership to be promoted, who hasn't been stained by the Ukrainian disaster, who is adequately loyal to Putin.
Shoigu's position is stable -- for now. Because there's nobody to replace him, or at least nobody who provides the loyalty Shoigu does. Shoigu will keep serving as the figurehead of the Ministry of Defense until it is not at all possible to keep him in that position. When Putin gets rid of him, things are very desperate.
(Shoigu, incidentally, is a "palace functionary," whose main skill is surviving regime change and coming out still relatively senior and also not dead. He doesn't have any particular military management skills, he's just good at sucking up to whoever's in charge enough to not be dead.)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:59 PM on September 20, 2022 [17 favorites]
When Shoigu shows up dead, there's been a massive change in power/outlook. As someone noted above, Shoigu is Tuvan, which means that he isn't a credible choice to lead a coup -- Russian leaders must be Slavs (at least plausibly). The reason Shoigu can be allowed to be in charge of the military is literally that he cannot run a coup; he depends on Putin's patronage because he's from a minority ethnic group.
To replace him at all, Putin would need someone with plausible military service who hasn't been stained by any of the Ukrainian defeats. To replace him in the current climate, Putin needs a Slav. (I did wonder if Putin had been floating Kadyrov, a Chechen, but if so, that failed. Kadyrov hasn't been publicly on-side -- which might have just been agitating against Shoigu -- but he's also been outed in the West as a coward who hides in his palaces and manufactures photo ops. He no longer has the fear factor.) But it's increasingly hard to think of someone with enough military leadership to be promoted, who hasn't been stained by the Ukrainian disaster, who is adequately loyal to Putin.
Shoigu's position is stable -- for now. Because there's nobody to replace him, or at least nobody who provides the loyalty Shoigu does. Shoigu will keep serving as the figurehead of the Ministry of Defense until it is not at all possible to keep him in that position. When Putin gets rid of him, things are very desperate.
(Shoigu, incidentally, is a "palace functionary," whose main skill is surviving regime change and coming out still relatively senior and also not dead. He doesn't have any particular military management skills, he's just good at sucking up to whoever's in charge enough to not be dead.)
posted by Eyebrows McGee at 5:59 PM on September 20, 2022 [17 favorites]
If referenda actually are called, the US/EU(/etc.?) should tighten the sanctions belt up a notch. Or several.
posted by Flunkie at 7:44 PM on September 20, 2022
posted by Flunkie at 7:44 PM on September 20, 2022
Olaf Schulz says Germany will never accept a peace dictated by Russia; Anthony Blinken say the US will not recognize referenda attempting to legitimize annexation of Ukrainian territories.
CNBC.
My guess is that the delay in the speech is due to international pressure, not internal Russian politics.
posted by brambleboy at 7:51 PM on September 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
CNBC.
My guess is that the delay in the speech is due to international pressure, not internal Russian politics.
posted by brambleboy at 7:51 PM on September 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
Politico: Erdoğan to Putin: Return Crimea to ‘rightful owners’
The remarks make him the latest world leader with continuing ties to Russia to deal Putin a rhetorical blow in recent days. India’s Narendra Modi raised concerns last week about the Russian president’s ongoing war on Ukraine, and Putin himself admitted China’s Xi Jinping expressed “concerns” as well.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 8:35 PM on September 20, 2022 [6 favorites]
Thomas C. Theiner again, this time with some maps and explanation of why he thinks ATACMS is crucial to intercepting what's left of Russian logistics.
posted by Harald74 at 10:41 PM on September 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 10:41 PM on September 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
So, anyone remember the Belgian M109 SPHs that the government decided were too expensive to buy back from the private company refurbishing them and donate to Ukraine? Well, seems like the British bought them all at market price and is shipping them to Ukraine now. That can't be good optics for Belgium...
posted by Harald74 at 11:09 PM on September 20, 2022 [7 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:09 PM on September 20, 2022 [7 favorites]
Putin's new mobilisation is thus far limited to not letting current soldiers quit and veterans being called up involuntarily, which still limits the impact on core Slavic regions (though if they start reaching for the 40+ generation, I think the army was less marginalised in the 90s). He called out the concept of Russia falling into warring regions especially, which is telling. Plus the usual saber rattling, but for now no annexation.
Mind you, referendums and annexation are a bit toothless since Ukraine is now openly attacking annexed Crimea. I'd say today's speech is just trying to stem the bleeding from desertions (which until now were legal) and maybe a prelude to declaring martial law in some regions that were making internal noises of protest...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:47 PM on September 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
Mind you, referendums and annexation are a bit toothless since Ukraine is now openly attacking annexed Crimea. I'd say today's speech is just trying to stem the bleeding from desertions (which until now were legal) and maybe a prelude to declaring martial law in some regions that were making internal noises of protest...
posted by I claim sanctuary at 11:47 PM on September 20, 2022 [1 favorite]
But did he mention referendums only in Donetsk and Luhansk? Did they quietly drop the other regions?
posted by Harald74 at 11:50 PM on September 20, 2022
posted by Harald74 at 11:50 PM on September 20, 2022
According to Polish sources he didn't mention any referendum, but Kherson and Zaporozhye did get namechecked as "people's republics" Russia is defending.
Shoigu has since clarified that mobilisation only impacts about 300 thousand former contract soldiers, not former draftees. I suspect that was part of what got ironed out overnight and honestly it's still quite limited.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:32 AM on September 21, 2022
Shoigu has since clarified that mobilisation only impacts about 300 thousand former contract soldiers, not former draftees. I suspect that was part of what got ironed out overnight and honestly it's still quite limited.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 12:32 AM on September 21, 2022
Kamil Galeev laid out yesterday why declaring mobilization is probably a bad move on Putin's part. He was talking about full mobilization, but even a limited one as was declared today will run into many of the same problems.
posted by Harald74 at 12:36 AM on September 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 12:36 AM on September 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
He called out the concept of Russia falling into warring regions especiallyAny further details on what he said regarding this topic would be appreciated.
posted by Flunkie at 12:43 AM on September 21, 2022
For a more credible specialist in Russian studies take on mobilization, I give you Michael Kofman, Director, Russia Studies at CNA, Senior Adjunct Fellow, CNAS, in a thread from May. He seems to agree with Galeev, though.
posted by Harald74 at 12:49 AM on September 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 12:49 AM on September 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
ChrisO has a thread which talks about the effect of the mobilization on forces already in Ukraine. - In summary then, the mobilization is likely to lead to a large accumulation of reluctant conscripts from all over Russia - meeting together in Moscow to be processed, and a set of increasingly exhausted and demoralized soldiers stuck in Ukraine without ability to either walk away of rotate out of the conflict zone for a while.
posted by rongorongo at 2:46 AM on September 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by rongorongo at 2:46 AM on September 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
And what happened the last time there was an unpopular war on, and a large number of reluctant conscripts with arms hung about the Russian capital?
posted by Harald74 at 3:12 AM on September 21, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 3:12 AM on September 21, 2022 [6 favorites]
Russia incapable of general mobilisation, Finnish military expert says (from YLE News). Excerpt:
posted by Kattullus at 5:23 AM on September 21, 2022 [8 favorites]
Meanwhile, the former head of the Finland Defence Command Intelligence Division Pekka Toveri told Yle that the mobilisation call is essentially the Kremlin's last resort.In some ways the most interesting bit is in the last paragraph. The main purpose of a partial mobilization for Russia is being able to call already trained former soldiers into service. Their problem isn't just lack of manpower, it's the lack of resources and time to train them. However, this is still only a stop-gap measure, the latest one in a series of stop-gap measures that have been unable to stop all the gaps.
"Since no war has been declared in Russia, it seems that a general mobilisation would not be possible. On the other hand, they wouldn't even have the resources. Theoretically, there is a reserve of a couple of million soldiers, but in practice there is no movement deployment system," Toveri said, while speaking on Yle's radio programme Radio Suomen Päivä.
He added that Russia has a shortage of materiel and does not have the capacity to train soldiers. A general mobilisation would thus cause major economic challenges and domestic political risks for the Kremlin.
Sources have hinted towards Russia pursuing other options, such as using specially trained soldiers from the navy as foot soldiers.
"It's indicative of big losses and shortages. With a partial mobilisation, properly trained tank crew, motorised infantry and artillery can be hand-picked from the reserve," Toveri said, adding that the effort was likely the fastest way to address the situation in the Donbass region.
posted by Kattullus at 5:23 AM on September 21, 2022 [8 favorites]
Any further details on what he said regarding this topic would be appreciated.
I could only find the speech fully translated into German. Putin makes the claim (twice) that the West is talking about and striving to break Russia into smaller regions, as he claims they did when the Soviet Union dissolved. Putin also makes the claim that the West is threatening the use of nuclear weapons against Russia directly. He does not mention Russia's regions warring with each other specifically. Putin also tries to calm people by stressing the fact that he is only ordering a partial mobilization only for reservists with specific skills that are useful on the front etc.
posted by UN at 5:52 AM on September 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
I could only find the speech fully translated into German. Putin makes the claim (twice) that the West is talking about and striving to break Russia into smaller regions, as he claims they did when the Soviet Union dissolved. Putin also makes the claim that the West is threatening the use of nuclear weapons against Russia directly. He does not mention Russia's regions warring with each other specifically. Putin also tries to calm people by stressing the fact that he is only ordering a partial mobilization only for reservists with specific skills that are useful on the front etc.
posted by UN at 5:52 AM on September 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
The Kremlin has provided Putin's speech translated into English.
posted by Kabanos at 6:36 AM on September 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Kabanos at 6:36 AM on September 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
Putin also tries to calm people by stressing the fact that he is only ordering a partial mobilization only for reservists with specific skills that are useful on the front etc.
It is so weird to be filtering statements like this through the lens of the US's recent stop gap orders. Their is a bias floating around in my brain that makes Putin's statements wildly worse when objectively it is just a matter of degree.
posted by Mitheral at 6:55 AM on September 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
It is so weird to be filtering statements like this through the lens of the US's recent stop gap orders. Their is a bias floating around in my brain that makes Putin's statements wildly worse when objectively it is just a matter of degree.
posted by Mitheral at 6:55 AM on September 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
Reuters: Flights out of Russia sell out after Putin orders partial call-up
Direct flights from Moscow to Istanbul in Turkey and Yerevan in Armenia, both destinations that allow Russians to enter without a visa, were sold out on Wednesday, according to Aviasales data.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 7:19 AM on September 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
For a more credible specialist in Russian studies take on mobilization, I give you Michael Kofman, Director, Russia Studies at CNA, Senior Adjunct Fellow, CNAS, in a thread from May. He seems to agree with Galeev, though.
Kofman has a new thread discussing mobilization today: link. It is worth reading; he describes the likely problems Russia will face and the likely limitations, but is not nearly as dismissive of the partial mobilization as a lot of commentators seem to be: "Mobilization comes with significant political risks and downsides for Moscow, but it could extend Russia's ability to sustain this war more so than alter the outcome."
posted by Dip Flash at 7:32 AM on September 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
Kofman has a new thread discussing mobilization today: link. It is worth reading; he describes the likely problems Russia will face and the likely limitations, but is not nearly as dismissive of the partial mobilization as a lot of commentators seem to be: "Mobilization comes with significant political risks and downsides for Moscow, but it could extend Russia's ability to sustain this war more so than alter the outcome."
posted by Dip Flash at 7:32 AM on September 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
300,000? Ukraine has been mobilizing in a total war state for 6 months. They probably have close to three quarters of a million in the field if not closing in on a million by now. 300,000 is the minimum Putin should have gone in with. Now he's just throwing away Russian lives by half-measures and underestimating Ukrainians.
I swear the only good thing about fascism is that they're so fucking high on their own supply of self-superiority they get beaten back by the stupidity of their own hubris.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:32 AM on September 21, 2022 [14 favorites]
I swear the only good thing about fascism is that they're so fucking high on their own supply of self-superiority they get beaten back by the stupidity of their own hubris.
posted by Your Childhood Pet Rock at 7:32 AM on September 21, 2022 [14 favorites]
As someone noted above, Shoigu is Tuvan, which means that he isn't a credible choice to lead a coup -- Russian leaders must be Slavs (at least plausibly).
This seems like a very confident assertion of something that is true right up until it isn't. (Like, it was accurate to say that the US was too racist to elect someone who wasn't white, until that actually happened.) Personally I think Shoigu is unlikely to be the face of any coup; if Putin goes down, Shoigu will probably go down with him because he is seen as Putin's lackey. But I can easily imagine a scenario where there was a strategic choice made to have the face of a coup be from a minority group or otherwise not typical "leadership material," for example as a way of emphasizing that this is a short-term emergency transition and then later things will go back to normal for the long term.
Anyway, I know this is the internet and making confident assertions about uncertain things is a major part of the fun online, so I'm not trying to rain on any parades.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:19 AM on September 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
This seems like a very confident assertion of something that is true right up until it isn't. (Like, it was accurate to say that the US was too racist to elect someone who wasn't white, until that actually happened.) Personally I think Shoigu is unlikely to be the face of any coup; if Putin goes down, Shoigu will probably go down with him because he is seen as Putin's lackey. But I can easily imagine a scenario where there was a strategic choice made to have the face of a coup be from a minority group or otherwise not typical "leadership material," for example as a way of emphasizing that this is a short-term emergency transition and then later things will go back to normal for the long term.
Anyway, I know this is the internet and making confident assertions about uncertain things is a major part of the fun online, so I'm not trying to rain on any parades.
posted by Dip Flash at 8:19 AM on September 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
Well, this is in Tuvan historian Kamil Galeev's wheelhouse, and he agrees with the people upthread.
posted by Harald74 at 9:19 AM on September 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by Harald74 at 9:19 AM on September 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
Meduza's been reporting on various small-scale protests and the accompanying arrests that have been cropping up inside Russia in response to the mobilization announcement. A note on that page says they're going to be updating numbers as they get them.
So far, handfuls of people. But these things have a way of tipping over in ways that self-assured dictators have a hard time predicting (Cf., "own supply, high on").
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:33 AM on September 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
So far, handfuls of people. But these things have a way of tipping over in ways that self-assured dictators have a hard time predicting (Cf., "own supply, high on").
posted by mandolin conspiracy at 9:33 AM on September 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
Wagner group: Russian prisoners recruited by mercenaries 'already captured by Ukrainian forces' | Middle East Eye
A second source familiar with the issue told MEE that Wagner has given its worst equipment to the prisoners it brought to fight in Ukraine.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:02 AM on September 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
"They usually drive these people to the front as bait,” the second source said. “We know that 500 to 600 prisoners were collected and brought from Russia in this way in the last months."
The source added that the Russian prisoners claiming to be freed inmates are mostly troops seized after being left behind by their forces, and appear to have no combat experience.
I've seen various reports of this, "Russian airlines ordered to stop selling tickets to Russian men aged 18 to 65", but nothing from a source I'd consider authoritative. Does anyone have a definitive answer?
posted by bcd at 10:02 AM on September 21, 2022
posted by bcd at 10:02 AM on September 21, 2022
The traffic jam at the border with Russia/Finland has piled up to 35KM and is rising by the hour, it is the only border who is still open for Russian civilians with Shengen visas, after Putin announced he will send 300,000 new troops to Ukraine.
posted by adamvasco at 10:24 AM on September 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by adamvasco at 10:24 AM on September 21, 2022 [2 favorites]
Sounds like they were ready to go.
Many Russians seek ways out as call-up orders arrive
Many Russians seek ways out as call-up orders arrive
GDANSK, Poland, Sept 21 (Reuters) - Moments after President Vladimir Putin called up 300,000 reservists on Wednesday in Russia's first such mobilisation since World War Two, a human rights lawyer said citizens had already started getting orders to enlist.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 10:56 AM on September 21, 2022 [8 favorites]
In St Petersburg, Pavel Chikov said recruitment offices had handed packs of conscription papers to homeowners' associations.
...
In the city of Kursk, one woman married to a soldier said: "They're not letting people out of Kursk. There are police cordons everywhere, checking each car. If a man is driving, they inspect; if it's a woman, they ask her to open the luggage compartment. If the man is from Kursk, they turn you back."
For a more credible specialist in Russian studies take on mobilization, I give you Michael Kofman, Director, Russia Studies at CNA, Senior Adjunct Fellow, CNAS, in a thread from May. He seems to agree with Galeev, though.
Re Kofman and Galeev (both of whom I have read a lot of, and gotten a lot out of):
I was listening to a War on the Rocks interview with Kofman, and he was asked a question about the North Koreans selling artillery shells to Russia, IIRC, about how they would have to retain a strategic reserve. Now, note that I have zero military knowledge, and I've only had a modest on-and-off interest in North Korea over the past twenty years. I'm a civil engineer, for crying out loud.
I was thinking as the question was asked that it's obvious that the DPRK has to retain a massive strategic reserve of artillery shells. Their key deterrent from foreign invasion (certainly before but even with their nuclear program) is broadly understood to be a forest of thousands of artillery pieces pointed at Seoul. Central Seoul is only 50 km from the border, and it's the most valuable place in the Korean peninsula; half the South's population live in the metropolis. That it's obviously an artillery deterrent, because both bombers and missiles are more complex, more expensive, require more training, and are easier to stop with strikes and easier to intercept. Whereas artillery can be scattered in individual pieces in the hills everywhere, and would take forever for foreign invaders to stop individually. And the fact that there's less accuracy isn't important, when the primary target is 50 km away but also 50 km across. This deterrent is in their regime's view, their strongest shield, and obviously they won't jeopardize this. And by the way, this is all on Wikipedia; this is one of the fundamental elements of North Korean defence; this is not something you'd need to read current military journals or do a deep dive to know.
What Kofman said was, "I'm not a North Korea expert." and then there was dead air, until the host asked the next question.
He's an interesting comparison to Galeev, who is, depending on the tweet, an expert on Russian military, history, politics, economics, literature, sociology, religion, philosophy, language, pop culture, manufacturing, transportation, media, and more. And he is, to be fair, an expert in all of those things relative to me.
But I think Kofman might point out that war is a very conditional activity (that is, one in which small changes in inputs can have large changes in the outcomes), and that we have not only incomplete information on conditions at this time, but biased information as both countries (especially effectively Ukraine) are fighting battles in the information space. So Kofman tends to be very conservative with what he says, which I think is to his credit.
posted by Superilla at 11:05 AM on September 21, 2022 [11 favorites]
Re Kofman and Galeev (both of whom I have read a lot of, and gotten a lot out of):
I was listening to a War on the Rocks interview with Kofman, and he was asked a question about the North Koreans selling artillery shells to Russia, IIRC, about how they would have to retain a strategic reserve. Now, note that I have zero military knowledge, and I've only had a modest on-and-off interest in North Korea over the past twenty years. I'm a civil engineer, for crying out loud.
I was thinking as the question was asked that it's obvious that the DPRK has to retain a massive strategic reserve of artillery shells. Their key deterrent from foreign invasion (certainly before but even with their nuclear program) is broadly understood to be a forest of thousands of artillery pieces pointed at Seoul. Central Seoul is only 50 km from the border, and it's the most valuable place in the Korean peninsula; half the South's population live in the metropolis. That it's obviously an artillery deterrent, because both bombers and missiles are more complex, more expensive, require more training, and are easier to stop with strikes and easier to intercept. Whereas artillery can be scattered in individual pieces in the hills everywhere, and would take forever for foreign invaders to stop individually. And the fact that there's less accuracy isn't important, when the primary target is 50 km away but also 50 km across. This deterrent is in their regime's view, their strongest shield, and obviously they won't jeopardize this. And by the way, this is all on Wikipedia; this is one of the fundamental elements of North Korean defence; this is not something you'd need to read current military journals or do a deep dive to know.
What Kofman said was, "I'm not a North Korea expert." and then there was dead air, until the host asked the next question.
He's an interesting comparison to Galeev, who is, depending on the tweet, an expert on Russian military, history, politics, economics, literature, sociology, religion, philosophy, language, pop culture, manufacturing, transportation, media, and more. And he is, to be fair, an expert in all of those things relative to me.
But I think Kofman might point out that war is a very conditional activity (that is, one in which small changes in inputs can have large changes in the outcomes), and that we have not only incomplete information on conditions at this time, but biased information as both countries (especially effectively Ukraine) are fighting battles in the information space. So Kofman tends to be very conservative with what he says, which I think is to his credit.
posted by Superilla at 11:05 AM on September 21, 2022 [11 favorites]
Yes, Kofman has been a voice of caution throughout the war in terms of jumping to conclusions based on scant evidence. It's weird he's even on Twitter given how allergic he is to hot takes. So when we speaks, my ears tend to perk up.
Here's his twitter thread about today's mobilization news.
posted by gwint at 11:55 AM on September 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
Here's his twitter thread about today's mobilization news.
posted by gwint at 11:55 AM on September 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
bcd: I've seen various reports of this, "Russian airlines ordered to stop selling tickets to Russian men aged 18 to 65", but nothing from a source I'd consider authoritative. Does anyone have a definitive answer?
In Meduza Andrey Pertsev reported on this issue and other aspects of how the partial mobilization will be carried out. Excerpt:
In Meduza Andrey Pertsev reported on this issue and other aspects of how the partial mobilization will be carried out. Excerpt:
The Kremlin isn’t expecting widespread protests against mobilization. One source close to the Putin administration’s domestic policy bloc told Meduza that public discontent in response to the news is “expected, but not critical.”posted by Kattullus at 12:18 PM on September 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
Another source close to the Kremlin told Meduza that “the majority of people still support the SVO [‘special military operation’]. For them, the president’s argument that mobilization is necessary to oppose NATO will be sufficient. And for now, those who are terribly upset can still leave — nobody’s going to arrest them at this point. Everything will be done gradually.”
One of Meduza’s sources also emphasized that the authorities aren’t planning to close the border to Russian men before the end of the “referendums” in Ukraine’s occupied territories (slated to end on September 27). The situation may change, however, “if there’s a mass outflux.” According to Meduza’s sources, what happens will ultimately be up to the “security bloc” (the Defense Ministry, Russian intelligence services, and law enforcement) as well as on Vladimir Putin, who is determined the conduct the “referendums” and move forward with mobilization as soon as possible.
Everything will be done gradually
How did you lose the war?
Gradually, then suddenly.
posted by gwint at 12:24 PM on September 21, 2022 [14 favorites]
How did you lose the war?
Gradually, then suddenly.
posted by gwint at 12:24 PM on September 21, 2022 [14 favorites]
This "partial mobilization" also has the beneficial side effect of getting rid of a lot of people that would join an effective uprising against the Russian government.
posted by meowzilla at 1:15 PM on September 21, 2022
posted by meowzilla at 1:15 PM on September 21, 2022
Kofman's twitter thread gives a good insight into why push forward the sham referendum: "The situation with conscripts appears unchanged, but if Russia annexes these 4 UA regions, then it can technically deploy conscripts in those territories as well..."
Between stop-loss and 'limited mobilization' they hope to rebuild some semblance of the trained military, but that doesn't fully address the need for more bodies to conduct the war they want. Plus, the complexities of organizing operations around who is a conscript and who is a 'volunteer' must feel like handcuffs to the military brass. By declaring the lands Russian, not only do they rattle the international sabre, but they will also gain domestic legal cover to shift military units more freely as they would like.
posted by meinvt at 1:36 PM on September 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
Between stop-loss and 'limited mobilization' they hope to rebuild some semblance of the trained military, but that doesn't fully address the need for more bodies to conduct the war they want. Plus, the complexities of organizing operations around who is a conscript and who is a 'volunteer' must feel like handcuffs to the military brass. By declaring the lands Russian, not only do they rattle the international sabre, but they will also gain domestic legal cover to shift military units more freely as they would like.
posted by meinvt at 1:36 PM on September 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
traffic jam
I think this is fake, multiple sources report this image as much earlier and normal traffic at the RF-Finland border.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 3:07 PM on September 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
I think this is fake, multiple sources report this image as much earlier and normal traffic at the RF-Finland border.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 3:07 PM on September 21, 2022 [4 favorites]
Well, this is in Tuvan historian Kamil Galeev's wheelhouse, and he agrees with the people upthread.Everything is in Kamil Galeev's wheelhouse, according to Kamil Galeev.
posted by Flunkie at 3:12 PM on September 21, 2022 [8 favorites]
[Finnish Border Guard Account] Rajavartiolaitos on Twitter
Situation at Finland's borders has not changed with the announcement of Russian moilization. There are videos circulating on social media, at least some of which have already been filmed before and now taken out of context. There is incorrect information in circulation.posted by ChurchHatesTucker at 3:24 PM on September 21, 2022 [7 favorites]
The partial mobilizations allow for three things, potentially:
But victory settles many questions, and China/India taking a more cautious stance after the successful Ukrainian counter-offensive is something to note.
I assume that three bridges essential to the southern front will be disposed of and cause a logistics nightmare for the Russians, so it is a race against time, as always.
posted by jadepearl at 4:35 PM on September 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
- stabilization of battlefront to create a more drawn-out scenario allowing leverage for negotiations
- bodies needed to stabilize other regions, e.g., Armenia
- long shot of victory by wearing down opposition and having Ukraine sending their troops to a grinder
But victory settles many questions, and China/India taking a more cautious stance after the successful Ukrainian counter-offensive is something to note.
I assume that three bridges essential to the southern front will be disposed of and cause a logistics nightmare for the Russians, so it is a race against time, as always.
posted by jadepearl at 4:35 PM on September 21, 2022 [5 favorites]
In other news this morning, Zelenskiy's address to the UN General Assembly included a five point list of peace prerequisites - a tribunal for Russian war crimes, protection of Ukrainian lives, territorial integrity, security guarantees and right to self defense. The EU is preparing the next sanctions package and 215 Ukrainian and international fighters have been freed in a prisoner swap brokered a bit improbably by Erdogan with an assist from Mohammed bin Salman. Even North Korea is pinky swearing they don't support Russia, which means that in this UN session they have... Syria and not much else as allies?
posted by I claim sanctuary at 9:52 PM on September 21, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 9:52 PM on September 21, 2022 [12 favorites]
Everything is in Kamil Galeev's wheelhouse, according to Kamil Galeev.
Well, he does tend to go on, doesn't he, but that's why I specified that he might actually have real academic credentials to back up this opinion.
posted by Harald74 at 10:47 PM on September 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
Well, he does tend to go on, doesn't he, but that's why I specified that he might actually have real academic credentials to back up this opinion.
posted by Harald74 at 10:47 PM on September 21, 2022 [1 favorite]
In other news, apparently Russian authorities have reported the 100th shootdown of Ukrainian Su-25s. Out of their original stock of 17...
posted by Harald74 at 10:51 PM on September 21, 2022 [11 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 10:51 PM on September 21, 2022 [11 favorites]
And in more good news, property belonging to a billionaire oligarch (and Putin ally) was raided by 250 police officers in Germany. Money laundering, tax fraud.
[Does it take genocidal war and international sanctions before these people are investigated for these kinds of things? Why were these people free to roam Europe all these decades? You'd think they went on a crime spree this last February but were squeaky clean prior to that.]
posted by UN at 10:52 PM on September 21, 2022 [17 favorites]
[Does it take genocidal war and international sanctions before these people are investigated for these kinds of things? Why were these people free to roam Europe all these decades? You'd think they went on a crime spree this last February but were squeaky clean prior to that.]
posted by UN at 10:52 PM on September 21, 2022 [17 favorites]
Russian milbloggers are pretty salty that Putin ally Medvedchuk was exchanged in the recent prisoner exchange that saw the Azov commander and deputy commander among others swapped from the Russian side.
posted by Harald74 at 10:59 PM on September 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 10:59 PM on September 21, 2022 [3 favorites]
Many of you might remember the young medic, Kateryna "Birdie" Polishchuk, who sang in the ruins of Azovstal, and she has also come home!
posted by Harald74 at 11:26 PM on September 21, 2022 [16 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 11:26 PM on September 21, 2022 [16 favorites]
Reports of wholesale abductions for conscription in Buryatia.
posted by ocschwar at 7:30 AM on September 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by ocschwar at 7:30 AM on September 22, 2022 [3 favorites]
Igor Girkin is unhappy with the prisoner exchange.
An unhappy Girkin is balm for my soul.
posted by Harald74 at 10:33 AM on September 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
An unhappy Girkin is balm for my soul.
posted by Harald74 at 10:33 AM on September 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
Kremlin source: hidden article in Putin's mobilization order allows Russia to draft one million people
A source of Novaya Gazeta Europe in the presidential administration stresses that at first, representatives of the Defense Ministry insisted that the text of the entire order be marked “for internal use only”. Later, it was decided to classify only article seven, which dealt with the number of people that would be mobilized, the source said.
“They changed the number several times, and finally stopped at one million,” our source clarified.
posted by UN at 10:47 AM on September 22, 2022
A source of Novaya Gazeta Europe in the presidential administration stresses that at first, representatives of the Defense Ministry insisted that the text of the entire order be marked “for internal use only”. Later, it was decided to classify only article seven, which dealt with the number of people that would be mobilized, the source said.
“They changed the number several times, and finally stopped at one million,” our source clarified.
posted by UN at 10:47 AM on September 22, 2022
Maybe it was a premonition more than a fraud.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 10:52 AM on September 22, 2022
posted by a robot made out of meat at 10:52 AM on September 22, 2022
The Guardian's daily roundup on Ukraine reports that the Kremlin denies that the mobilisation order allows Russia to draft one million people. It also claims that:
Russian president Vladimir Putin is giving directions directly to generals in the field, CNN reports. According to two sources familiar with American and western intelligence that spoke to CNN, the direct orders from Putin to generals “hints at the dysfunctional command structure” that has affected Russia forces on the battlefield. AND
Security forces detained more than 1,300 people in Russia overnight at protests denouncing mobilisation, a rights group said. Those figures from across 38 Russian cities include at least 502 in Moscow and 524 in St Petersburg, according to the independent OVD-Info protest monitoring group. These are the largest protests seen since Putin launched his invasion in February.
So much going on. According to The Guardian (first link), Russian deserters fleeing mobilisation may be able to obtain protection in Germany, the German interior minister, Nancy Faeser, said. “Deserters threatened with serious repression can, as a rule, obtain international protection in Germany,” Faeser said in an interview. The Czech foreign minister, Jan Lipavský, said Russians fleeing the country will not be issued humanitarian visas by the Czech Republic.
posted by Bella Donna at 1:08 PM on September 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
Russian president Vladimir Putin is giving directions directly to generals in the field, CNN reports. According to two sources familiar with American and western intelligence that spoke to CNN, the direct orders from Putin to generals “hints at the dysfunctional command structure” that has affected Russia forces on the battlefield. AND
Security forces detained more than 1,300 people in Russia overnight at protests denouncing mobilisation, a rights group said. Those figures from across 38 Russian cities include at least 502 in Moscow and 524 in St Petersburg, according to the independent OVD-Info protest monitoring group. These are the largest protests seen since Putin launched his invasion in February.
So much going on. According to The Guardian (first link), Russian deserters fleeing mobilisation may be able to obtain protection in Germany, the German interior minister, Nancy Faeser, said. “Deserters threatened with serious repression can, as a rule, obtain international protection in Germany,” Faeser said in an interview. The Czech foreign minister, Jan Lipavský, said Russians fleeing the country will not be issued humanitarian visas by the Czech Republic.
posted by Bella Donna at 1:08 PM on September 22, 2022 [4 favorites]
"Russian opposition outlets also reported on a bank IT specialist who had received a draft notice despite never having served in the army or attended military-education courses in university The IT specialist is likely one of many Russian men who received mobilization notices despite not meeting the stated criteria for partial mobilization. A university student in Buryatia released footage of Rosgvardia and military police pulling students from lessons, reportedly for mobilization, despite Russian Defense Minister Sergey Shoigu repeatedly stating that Russian students will not be mobilized."
They changed the number several times, and finally stopped at one million,” our source clarified.
posted by UN at 1:47 PM
Maybe it was a premonition more than a fraud.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 1:52
"Im not going to be the first American president to lose a war.”
-Richard Nixon, October 1969
posted by clavdivs at 6:31 PM on September 22, 2022 [5 favorites]
They changed the number several times, and finally stopped at one million,” our source clarified.
posted by UN at 1:47 PM
Maybe it was a premonition more than a fraud.
posted by a robot made out of meat at 1:52
"Im not going to be the first American president to lose a war.”
-Richard Nixon, October 1969
posted by clavdivs at 6:31 PM on September 22, 2022 [5 favorites]
Reports that mobilisation was cancelled in Chechnya due to protests and the fear of another uprising.
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:47 AM on September 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
posted by I claim sanctuary at 1:47 AM on September 23, 2022 [3 favorites]
I feel that we're at a turning point again, so I again posted a ---==* NEW THREAD *==---
posted by Harald74 at 9:45 AM on September 23, 2022 [12 favorites]
posted by Harald74 at 9:45 AM on September 23, 2022 [12 favorites]
Oh good — this one is getting loggy on mobile, for all that it isn’t all that long.
posted by Quasirandom at 10:52 AM on September 23, 2022
posted by Quasirandom at 10:52 AM on September 23, 2022
Fine, I'll get my own milk and cookies..
posted by Nerd of the North at 1:18 PM on September 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
posted by Nerd of the North at 1:18 PM on September 23, 2022 [2 favorites]
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posted by box at 10:39 AM on August 29, 2022 [6 favorites]