Europe Is Likely to Avoid Unusually Cold Winter, Climate Model Says
October 16, 2022 4:27 AM Subscribe
(SLBloomberg) I went out for a walk this morning and noticed I still don't need my winter jacket. When I was a kid mid October in the UK was, to use a local expression, 'brassic'.
It is a balmy 14c today and the longer it stays warm, the greater the chance of success for Ukraine in their (and our) war.
This post is a response to this post from two weeks ago. One commenter said of the war in Ukraine, "this is a no holds barred energy war". For this reason I believe balance is essential and that is what I am attempting to provide here.
no jacket required [ungated version of the Bloomberg article]
posted by chavenet at 5:14 AM on October 16, 2022
posted by chavenet at 5:14 AM on October 16, 2022
Weather, as in rain at a specific place & time, is a crap-shoot five days out. Michael Gallagher, the Donegal postman-predictionist, whose incorrect predictions were ignored for 25 years, covered his crystal balls last year after on-line abuse.
posted by BobTheScientist at 5:40 AM on October 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
posted by BobTheScientist at 5:40 AM on October 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
Archive link if you can't access the article without an account.
posted by Dysk at 6:01 AM on October 16, 2022
posted by Dysk at 6:01 AM on October 16, 2022
There's probably more to it, but arguing that because it's unseasonably warm (or cold) now, it will be unseasonably warm in three months? That's a fools game. It was cold and grey, and damp here through the end of June. Then it's been hot and sunny and brutally dry, with the latest 80 degree day ever being possible today.
posted by wotsac at 6:19 AM on October 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
posted by wotsac at 6:19 AM on October 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
Well I was at on the harbour side in my southerly UK hometown with a cold stout and a plate of oysters yesterday, and I was very glad to be wearing my winter coat.
posted by biffa at 6:24 AM on October 16, 2022
posted by biffa at 6:24 AM on October 16, 2022
Since not reading the article is a time-honored tradition around these parts a TLDR: climate scientists at Copernicus, the EU's climate science group have run a bunch of simulations which suggest that the Eastern US and Europe are likely to experience somewhat warmer than average temperatures over the next three months. You can see the pretty map here.
I confess, while I expect to see arguments of the form "The man on the telly can't tell me if it will rain on Sunday, so how do these climate scientists think they can predict the climate?" and "they said the climate was warming but it was cold here yesterday, so there!" lots of places, but I'm a little surprised to see them here on Metafilter.
posted by firechicago at 7:06 AM on October 16, 2022 [33 favorites]
I confess, while I expect to see arguments of the form "The man on the telly can't tell me if it will rain on Sunday, so how do these climate scientists think they can predict the climate?" and "they said the climate was warming but it was cold here yesterday, so there!" lots of places, but I'm a little surprised to see them here on Metafilter.
posted by firechicago at 7:06 AM on October 16, 2022 [33 favorites]
Here in southern Germany it seems like October and September were switched. It’s was terribly cold for September. It seemed like summer ended and we went straight to cold (single digit celcius in the daytime, close to freezing at night) while really all of October has been pretty beautiful. That was really unfortunate for the Oktoberfest this year. So I am interested to see how this winter goes.
posted by LizBoBiz at 7:10 AM on October 16, 2022 [5 favorites]
posted by LizBoBiz at 7:10 AM on October 16, 2022 [5 favorites]
I think the only thing that will be certain is the weather will be increasingly odd/unpredictable.
From the article:
"The scientists said there’s a 50%-60% probability that the UK, much of the Mediterranean coast and parts of central Europe will see well-above-average temperatures. The rest of the continent has a 40%-50% chance of significantly exceeding historical averages"
50ish% chance of significantly warmer weather is not anything I would plan around. Still does exclude scenarios like warmer than average with a 2 week period of insanely below normal tempertures either.
posted by roguewraith at 9:10 AM on October 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
From the article:
"The scientists said there’s a 50%-60% probability that the UK, much of the Mediterranean coast and parts of central Europe will see well-above-average temperatures. The rest of the continent has a 40%-50% chance of significantly exceeding historical averages"
50ish% chance of significantly warmer weather is not anything I would plan around. Still does exclude scenarios like warmer than average with a 2 week period of insanely below normal tempertures either.
posted by roguewraith at 9:10 AM on October 16, 2022 [2 favorites]
Climate science aka weather forecasting is based on observations of weather from the past few centuries. Now we are headed into a period of climate instability the previously gathered data is becoming less useful. The data the Bloomberg article refers to is from an EU funded group to mitigate the effect of climate change on European territories (sadly it’s in some very difficult to parse presentations, because it’s not for end users like us).
posted by The River Ivel at 9:15 AM on October 16, 2022
posted by The River Ivel at 9:15 AM on October 16, 2022
What I find problematic is not the weather forecasting, but the implied chain of reasoning: 'if we have a mild winter, it will reduce energy demand, which is good news for Ukraine'.
Surely the key variable here is the price of energy? I know next to nothing about the energy futures market, but I gather from people who understand such things that the market is currently looking three winters ahead. If so, I can't see that a mild winter in 2022-3 is going to do much to reduce the pain for consumers in Europe faced with soaring energy bills.
posted by verstegan at 10:00 AM on October 16, 2022
Surely the key variable here is the price of energy? I know next to nothing about the energy futures market, but I gather from people who understand such things that the market is currently looking three winters ahead. If so, I can't see that a mild winter in 2022-3 is going to do much to reduce the pain for consumers in Europe faced with soaring energy bills.
posted by verstegan at 10:00 AM on October 16, 2022
Remember how badly Texas got screwed in Feb 2021? You can compare the historical forecast and results.
Predicting the strength of winter extreme storms in October is foolhardy.
posted by ryanrs at 10:02 AM on October 16, 2022
Predicting the strength of winter extreme storms in October is foolhardy.
posted by ryanrs at 10:02 AM on October 16, 2022
I'm a little baffled at the nonchalance of gas usage here in Berlin. This week I saw a resto in my Kiez heating their patio with three of those outdoor gas heaters. Terribly picturesque with the leaping flames, you know. It was maybe 12°C out. I get that the dining industry is hurting these last few years but I just can't fathom this kind of behavior during a gas emergency. (Not to mention, you know, the climate emergency.) Industries are looking at actually shutting down, lots of people are taking cold showers and not turning on their heat...and some people are heating the outdoors. We need to get ourselves on the same page.
posted by daveliepmann at 10:37 AM on October 16, 2022 [8 favorites]
posted by daveliepmann at 10:37 AM on October 16, 2022 [8 favorites]
"Climate science aka weather forecasting is based on observations of weather from the past few centuries. Now we are headed into a period of climate instability the previously gathered data is becoming less useful. "
I am not a weather forecaster but I am a climate modeller of sorts. In general, climate science and weather forecasting are not the same thing, although if you are referring to this work in particular it is somewhere in the middle for sure.
While early research does suggest climate change may make weather forecasting more difficult, it is not because of reliance on historical data. Weather models do undergo a process called data assimilation which incorporates recent observations (within days, weeks or months) of the atmosphere and ocean to provide a starting point for their model and to update it as time passes. However, data assimilation doesn't look for trends in past years data but rather it helps constrain weather models by nudging them towards what we have observed in reality. The physics of our weather models are based on decades of research into the fundamental physics of the atmosphere (and to a lesser degree the ocean), and their accuracy is really limited by the inherent unpredictability (butterfly effect) of such a complicated system. This means that even if we had 1000x the computing resources we have now, we may be still unable to accurately predict weather farther than 10 days out. ECMWF (one of the organizations that conducted the work above) has a discussion of chaos and weather prediction. That link also includes a discussion of the methodology in the OP's link above of how they make these probabilistic predictions.
Climate models, for the most part, do not even use data assimilation. This is partially due to the fear that they will learn biases which don't hold up in a changing climate like you mention. This is one of the reasons climate scientists are hesitant to use things like machine learning in their work. So far climate models have done a good job at predicting changes in surface temperatures. This comment is too long already to list all the reasons our models are not so great, but personally my understanding is that the chaotic nature of predicting years into the future is probably more of hurdle for climate modellers than the prospect of the physics of our current climate not translating into the future.
Sorry for being pedantic and I could definitely be wrong about a lot of this stuff (not a weather person), but I think model predictability is really cool and fun to talk about! I have no particular thoughts on their forecast!
posted by dreyfusfinucane at 10:50 AM on October 16, 2022 [25 favorites]
I am not a weather forecaster but I am a climate modeller of sorts. In general, climate science and weather forecasting are not the same thing, although if you are referring to this work in particular it is somewhere in the middle for sure.
While early research does suggest climate change may make weather forecasting more difficult, it is not because of reliance on historical data. Weather models do undergo a process called data assimilation which incorporates recent observations (within days, weeks or months) of the atmosphere and ocean to provide a starting point for their model and to update it as time passes. However, data assimilation doesn't look for trends in past years data but rather it helps constrain weather models by nudging them towards what we have observed in reality. The physics of our weather models are based on decades of research into the fundamental physics of the atmosphere (and to a lesser degree the ocean), and their accuracy is really limited by the inherent unpredictability (butterfly effect) of such a complicated system. This means that even if we had 1000x the computing resources we have now, we may be still unable to accurately predict weather farther than 10 days out. ECMWF (one of the organizations that conducted the work above) has a discussion of chaos and weather prediction. That link also includes a discussion of the methodology in the OP's link above of how they make these probabilistic predictions.
Climate models, for the most part, do not even use data assimilation. This is partially due to the fear that they will learn biases which don't hold up in a changing climate like you mention. This is one of the reasons climate scientists are hesitant to use things like machine learning in their work. So far climate models have done a good job at predicting changes in surface temperatures. This comment is too long already to list all the reasons our models are not so great, but personally my understanding is that the chaotic nature of predicting years into the future is probably more of hurdle for climate modellers than the prospect of the physics of our current climate not translating into the future.
Sorry for being pedantic and I could definitely be wrong about a lot of this stuff (not a weather person), but I think model predictability is really cool and fun to talk about! I have no particular thoughts on their forecast!
posted by dreyfusfinucane at 10:50 AM on October 16, 2022 [25 favorites]
According to the article, prediction of warmer weather is because the winds around the poles, the "polar vortex," have not weakened as predicted in late September. If those winds weaken the cold polar air can escape (I'm sure that's an over-simplification but that's how it's explain in the article).
The article also mentions that at least one climate modeling group disagrees and thinks we'll still have a cold winter, after all.
posted by subdee at 11:01 AM on October 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
The article also mentions that at least one climate modeling group disagrees and thinks we'll still have a cold winter, after all.
posted by subdee at 11:01 AM on October 16, 2022 [3 favorites]
I can't see that a mild winter in 2022-3 is going to do much to reduce the pain for consumers in Europe faced with soaring energy bills.
Bills are not the only concern. It's my understanding that if we have a sufficiently cold winter and do not properly ration our usage, it's within the realm of possibility that we literally run out of natural gas to heat homes, and people freeze to death. The German strategy of prioritizing home heating instead of industry is designed to avoid this outcome at the cost of severe economic pain. Either of these would make it more difficult to support Ukraine and continue to abstain from, say, acceding to Russian proposals to start up Nordstream 2.
On the plus side, it's educational to discover just how many industries rely on a steady supply of natural gas to exist. Glass, paper, AdBlue and thus trucking...
posted by daveliepmann at 11:05 AM on October 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
Bills are not the only concern. It's my understanding that if we have a sufficiently cold winter and do not properly ration our usage, it's within the realm of possibility that we literally run out of natural gas to heat homes, and people freeze to death. The German strategy of prioritizing home heating instead of industry is designed to avoid this outcome at the cost of severe economic pain. Either of these would make it more difficult to support Ukraine and continue to abstain from, say, acceding to Russian proposals to start up Nordstream 2.
On the plus side, it's educational to discover just how many industries rely on a steady supply of natural gas to exist. Glass, paper, AdBlue and thus trucking...
posted by daveliepmann at 11:05 AM on October 16, 2022 [4 favorites]
Surely the key variable here is the price of energy? I know next to nothing about the energy futures market, but I gather from people who understand such things that the market is currently looking three winters ahead. If so, I can't see that a mild winter in 2022-3 is going to do much to reduce the pain for consumers in Europe faced with soaring energy bills.
Futures may set the per unit cost well in advance (though it isn't quite that simple) but weather determines demand. Having to use less equally expensive gas is still going to cause a lot less pain than having to burn more of it if the weather is colder.
posted by Dysk at 11:29 AM on October 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
Futures may set the per unit cost well in advance (though it isn't quite that simple) but weather determines demand. Having to use less equally expensive gas is still going to cause a lot less pain than having to burn more of it if the weather is colder.
posted by Dysk at 11:29 AM on October 16, 2022 [6 favorites]
We need way more work on refracted solar for industrial usages, ala Heliogen and Solpart.
Neo-classical economists intentionally confuse weather for climate, which helps them worm climate denial into IPCC reports.
posted by jeffburdges at 2:35 PM on October 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
Neo-classical economists intentionally confuse weather for climate, which helps them worm climate denial into IPCC reports.
posted by jeffburdges at 2:35 PM on October 16, 2022 [1 favorite]
This week I saw a resto in my Kiez heating their patio with three of those outdoor gas heaters
Not to defend patio heaters, but as I understand it bottled gas used for patios etc (mostly propane) and natural gas (mostly methane) are separate products with entirely separate supply chains, pricing and availability, and aren't simple substitutes for one another.
posted by grahamparks at 3:06 AM on October 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
Not to defend patio heaters, but as I understand it bottled gas used for patios etc (mostly propane) and natural gas (mostly methane) are separate products with entirely separate supply chains, pricing and availability, and aren't simple substitutes for one another.
posted by grahamparks at 3:06 AM on October 17, 2022 [1 favorite]
Spotted on my TL, posted 4 hours ago by Andreas Steno Larsen: Gas- and electricity prices are dropping FAST in Europe right now and they are likely going to drop further!
What is going on? 💲🪔A thread 1/n
(...)
Interestingly, the curve has a positive beta to spot developments, so even if the price action is currently driven by a short-term over-supply, it brings the ENTIRE curve down with it, even if it seems irrational
The same holds for TTF benchmark gas in the Netherlands
6/n
Fill levels in European gas storages are approaching 100% way ahead of the deadline 1st of November and paired with milder than usual weather, this leads to a very low net spot demand for Gas
7/n
posted by cendawanita at 6:29 AM on October 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
What is going on? 💲🪔A thread 1/n
(...)
Interestingly, the curve has a positive beta to spot developments, so even if the price action is currently driven by a short-term over-supply, it brings the ENTIRE curve down with it, even if it seems irrational
The same holds for TTF benchmark gas in the Netherlands
6/n
Fill levels in European gas storages are approaching 100% way ahead of the deadline 1st of November and paired with milder than usual weather, this leads to a very low net spot demand for Gas
7/n
posted by cendawanita at 6:29 AM on October 19, 2022 [1 favorite]
Ain't clear if a mild winter helps or hurts, maybe more pain now builds more wind and solar, or maybe more pain now burns up Europe's minimal remaining forests.
posted by jeffburdges at 2:25 PM on October 24, 2022
posted by jeffburdges at 2:25 PM on October 24, 2022
« Older Sexy, Sexah, NIGHTMARE! | “Wake Up, Sleeping People of the Netherlands!” Newer »
This thread has been archived and is closed to new comments
Hope this is true, fingers crossed
posted by subdee at 4:47 AM on October 16, 2022