Turbocharging the energy transition
July 6, 2023 8:16 PM   Subscribe

The New Climate Law Is Working. Clean Energy Investments Are Soaring. "It seems clear already that the law will stimulate significantly more investment in clean energy than was at first thought possible while generating more revenue from high-income taxpayers to reduce the deficit. ... Companies have announced at least 31 new battery manufacturing projects in the United States. ... The pipeline of battery plants amounts to 1,000 gigawatt-hours per year by 2030 — 18 times the energy storage capacity in 2021, enough to support the manufacture of 10 million to 13 million electric vehicles per year. In energy production, companies have announced 96 gigawatts of new clean power over the past eight months, which is more than the total investment in clean power plants from 2017 to 2021 and enough to power nearly 20 million homes."

"But these early encouraging signs do not guarantee long-term success. The law did not provide all the necessary tools to achieve national goals for expanding our supply of clean energy. Congress and the Biden administration have more work to do.

First, lawmakers must make it easier to build clean energy infrastructure in America. Congress should immediately go beyond the permitting provisions included in the recently announced debt limit compromise bill and pass comprehensive legislation to speed energy development, an idea that has bipartisan support. ...

Second, lawmakers should continue to encourage efficient, low-carbon investments. For example, Congress could develop an industrial competitiveness program for heavy industries like cement, steel and chemicals that includes an emissions-based border adjustment fee on imported industrial goods from countries with less ambitious emissions controls. ...

Third, we need to work with allies across developed and emerging markets to build a cooperative international framework around the I.R.A.’s investment incentives. ... Fourth, policymakers and the public need better tools to close the gap between splashy corporate clean energy announcements and speculative long-term projections to understand where investments are being made and what they are achieving.

Finally, policymakers should remain vigilant about budgetary effects. The Congressional Budget Office recently estimated that the private sector’s enthusiasm for the I.R.A.’s clean energy incentives could increase the cost to the federal budget by about $200 billion over 10 years.

But that is only part of the overall calculation. The I.R.A. is about more than just clean energy. It also includes corporate tax increases and reductions in prescription drug spending by Medicare. That’s why the I.R.A. overall is still projected to reduce the deficit over 10 years, with the reduction growing to $50 billion a year by 2032.

Recent academic research has shown that the long-term deficit reduction could be much greater than these estimates anticipate, with the I.R.A.’s innovative investments in technology and audit capacity generating about $500 billion and potentially much more over the next decade. While it is a mistake to undercut those investments, the savings are achievable even with the rescissions to Internal Revenue Service funding included in the debt limit compromises."
posted by Artifice_Eternity (30 comments total) 15 users marked this as a favorite
 
There must be teeth in the 45q tax credit. "Blue Oil" is bullshit. We are looking at a major hurricanes' worth of land loss from Louisiana, and these decisions are being made without any consideration of environmental justice

Oilfields that have been quiet for decades are opening up again, how can we prevent this?
posted by eustatic at 8:43 PM on July 6, 2023 [5 favorites]


Is it enough? No.

Is it useful progress? Yes.

Is it the best we're going to get? It seems that way. For now. Success here should open up the path for stronger action.
posted by happyinmotion at 9:48 PM on July 6, 2023 [10 favorites]


1.21 gigawatts?! Great Scott!
posted by DreamerFi at 2:30 AM on July 7, 2023 [1 favorite]


Archive link.
posted by TheophileEscargot at 2:45 AM on July 7, 2023 [3 favorites]


But these early encouraging signs do not guarantee long-term success. The law did not provide all the necessary tools to achieve national goals for expanding our supply of clean energy. Congress and the Biden administration have more work to do.

But that work was done. It was completed. All it needed was for Manchin to be a Democratic senator and vote for Build Back Better. The IRA is what he negotiated BBB down to. In an article that laments that the IRA hasn't gone far enough, it seems like a glaring omission to forget that BBB did go further, and one greedy motherfucker blocked it.

His name is Manchin, don't let him get away with it. The NYT blaming the Biden admin for this is bullshit. He had to negotiate with Manchin's donors - unaccountable, unelected, anonymous, infinite-dark-money lobbyists. I think people forget, probably with help from the NYT's amnesium, that no one expected the last minute compromise with Manchin on the IRA. Schumer had been negotiating in secret for weeks, and then just two days after the CHIPs act, we got his vote on IRA. Left hook, right uppercut - a one-two combo. I remember it, everyone was so despondent that Biden couldn't pass anything through the senate, then the dam broke. The NYT apparently forgets.

Future generations will wonder why it took so long for us to take action. Manchin deserves his place in history. Tell the whole story NYT.
posted by adept256 at 3:40 AM on July 7, 2023 [60 favorites]


If Manchin had come to Jesus, would another Democrat have taken his place? Or was that a genuine case of one man playing the spoiler? I need to know!
posted by kingdead at 6:09 AM on July 7, 2023 [1 favorite]


Are you asking "Was there really a vast conspiracy among all Democrats in the Senate to pretend that BBB was being considered when really none of them had any intention of allowing it to pass so they made sure to always have one or two vote against it while the rest could cast ineffectual votes in favor so they could pretend to be decent while really they're all awful mwuhahaha"?

No, there was not that conspiracy.

If Manchin had come to Jesus, there's some chance Sinema would have objected because she has real trouble letting a spotlight just go unlit when she could be awful in it. But that's a Sinema thing, not a Democrats thing.
posted by GCU Sweet and Full of Grace at 6:29 AM on July 7, 2023 [9 favorites]


We had 60 votes in the senate when the choice was between Public Option/Medicare4All and what we now call Obamacare. Then there was 1 defector. But really, there were 11 defectors I guess because they were not willing to punt on the filibuster for a truly, incredibly, unalloyed good of a thing.

If Manchin or Sinema were not available as heat shields there would have been someone else. I really, really don't believe we will ever get to a number of seats where the dems will just Do The Good Thing. We will always need N+1 number of seats in a Fusion-Is-Awlays-5-years-Away sense.
posted by Slackermagee at 6:53 AM on July 7, 2023 [10 favorites]


Out here the utility is limiting residential solar hookups in certain areas, saying there’s too many area homes already on solar and it’s too much uncertainty for the grid. Don’t get me wrong, I understand there are real concerns with controlling the grid with variable power output depending on usage, clouds, time of day etc. To which I say, “figure it the hell out.” The federal and state governments should be providing a mandate as well as funding to the utilities to get these solutions. While I’m not huge on taxpayer subsidies to for-profit utilities, this is a matter of national security importance, particularly with the steps needed to be taken to fight climate change. These are solvable problems. In addition, utilities need to be barred from imposing onerous requirements on homeowners who want to put solar on their houses. In some parts of Arizona it has been financially prohibitive to have home solar due to utility rate structures. The solar export rate (what the utility pays you for excess power that you send to the grid) is dropping more and more. We have net metering because we got in under the deadline, however, homeowners that hook up now are looking at a rate that’s half of what the utility charges for grid power. The climate provisions in the IRA are a good start (we’re replacing our windows, which is making a HUGE difference in keeping heat out of the house, and we get to take a 30% credit at tax time) but we need to go a lot further - soon.
posted by azpenguin at 6:56 AM on July 7, 2023 [11 favorites]


One guy derailing the entire party's signature legislation is just so absurd and unbelievable that I'm not surprised people seek refuge in conspiracy theories to make sense of how asinine, petty, and selfish Manchin's actions were.

There's definitely a conspiracy in the sense that there are forces who don't want to let this crisis (or any other crisis, such as the pandemic) become a reason for disrupting the status quo they already benefit from. And Manchin and Sinema have repeatedly proven themselves willing to take a huge reputational hit in exchange for maintaining that status quo.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 6:57 AM on July 7, 2023 [8 favorites]


And as Slackermagee points out with the Public Option, every time there's a popular program that gets removed from legislation at the last minute because a single Senator vociferously objects to it, whether it's Leiberman then or Manchin now, the more frustrating it becomes to not believe that there's something fishy going on with specific individuals. For all we know, Manchin and Sinema are selling their power to withhold cloture to Mitch McConnell.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 7:18 AM on July 7, 2023 [4 favorites]


i'm a little bit jealous of certain norms that are more common in westminster system legislatures than the u.s. legislature. one of those norms is that if you vote against the party on important issues, especially if you do it more than once, you are out of the fuckin' party my friend. i think the reasoning is that:
  1. there must be consequences for breaking the party line pour encourager les autres
  2. when individual elected party members take outsized control of the party agenda, the damage that keeping the hijacker in the caucus does to the party brand outweighs the benefits you get from having the hijacker's vote on issues they don't care about
the united states is of course a special case because of the recent razor-sharp margins and the ongoing attacks on the nation by fascists, and because there just isn't that "if the whip underlines in triplicate you will vote the party line" norm.
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 7:31 AM on July 7, 2023 [8 favorites]


one of those norms is that if you vote against the party on important issues, especially if you do it more than once, you are out of the fuckin' party my friend.

This is because a) parties are significantly stronger in Westminster systems and b) it is an article of faith in American political culture that parties are evil, which results in further weakening of party control.
posted by NoxAeternum at 7:37 AM on July 7, 2023 [4 favorites]


yes, correct.
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 8:01 AM on July 7, 2023 [1 favorite]


if you vote against the party on important issues, especially if you do it more than once, you are out of the fuckin' party my friend.

Manchin was free to make the decision he wanted; I agree he made a terrible decision.

But he was elected as a Democrat from a state that gave Trump 69 percent of the vote in the 2020 election. In the short term, how do you think he would react if the Democratic party demanded that he either vote with them or leave? And how do you think the 2024 election would go if he either moved to the left or didn't run again?
posted by Mr.Know-it-some at 8:29 AM on July 7, 2023 [2 favorites]


i refer you to the last sentence in the comment you quoted.
posted by bombastic lowercase pronouncements at 8:38 AM on July 7, 2023 [1 favorite]


The moderate Dems vote the way they do because they have to do the bidding of their donors or lose their office. You want a more progressive Dem, do what AOC did: I don't care for her personally, but game recognizes game. Go fund a progressive challenger who can still win the general election, and will be beholden to voters, not donors. But that involves work. Go find candidates who can win as Dems in empty white states: Republican Lite doesn't work, and neither does Ardent Progressive, but it's at least plausible that you could get a candidate who looked authentic but argued for progressive policies over the line. The national Dems will only pick self-funding candidates or donor-acceptable ones, and they'll get slaughtered in general elections, but the fact of the matter is that our system is structurally skewed to favor rural, small-c conservative people (who are almost entirely white) even over and above the manifest corruption of Citizens United.
posted by outgrown_hobnail at 9:18 AM on July 7, 2023 [1 favorite]


Liberals who complaint about Manchin are way overboard. He is the most progressive Senator West Virginia could elect. He not only doesn't need the Democratic Party leadership, but they are an (electoral) millstone around his neck. In the 2021-2023 sessions where even one Democrat defection would cause a bill or nomination to fail, he supported a high percentage of Biden's legislation and supported Biden's very aggressive judicial nomination slate (tons of people who would been unacceptably left wing for Obama or Clinton, about as many straight white males as the cast of Hamilton).
posted by MattD at 9:19 AM on July 7, 2023 [1 favorite]


Manchin could have joined the dems in voting for a very, very strong electoral reform bill that would (by dint of making elections actually fair and free across states) have basically cemented dem victories for AGES. A real self-sacrificing move, acknowledging that while the people of his state will hate him for it, he will be greatly benefiting both them and his party for decades to come.

However
posted by Slackermagee at 10:20 AM on July 7, 2023 [7 favorites]


Projecting ten years out is a mug's game. Far too many variables.

Still, if you're interested, the academic research may be worth a gander. Basically, unleash the IRS.

Finally, policymakers should remain vigilant about budgetary effects.

Leopards, spots.
posted by BWA at 11:57 AM on July 7, 2023


Liberals who complaint about Manchin are way overboard. He is the most progressive Senator West Virginia could elect.

If you want to get really cynical, liberal hatred of Manchin burnishes his image as an maverick outsider and benefits his electability amongst his constituents. He desperately wants to be the guy who riles up the progressive wing of the party, and maybe if there was some way he could communicate that it's all kayfabe (assuming that it is and he's not, you know, deliberately damaging the Democratic party to selfishly benefit his own reelection) I think it would be easier to accept the political reality he dwells in.
posted by RonButNotStupid at 11:59 AM on July 7, 2023 [3 favorites]


Also relevant to this topic:
Biden approves largest wind project yet off U.S. shores

The Biden administration gave a green light Wednesday to the largest-ever offshore wind project the U.S. has yet approved, paving the way for dozens of turbines that could eventually power hundreds of thousands of New Jersey homes.

The approval of Ocean Wind 1′s plan for construction and operations is a milestone for the project, which has faced fierce opposition from Republican lawmakers and residents in New Jersey. The project would be the state’s first utility-scale offshore wind farm and could power as many as half a million homes with clean energy, according to Orsted, the Danish energy company developing the project.
I'm sure you'll be heartened to learn that a whole bunch of South Jersey MAGA types have suddenly taken up the cause of saving the whales, because it's become part of their mythology that offshore wind turbines are killing them. LOL.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 1:59 PM on July 7, 2023 [3 favorites]


In other Biden administration climate news:

White House cautiously opens the door to study blocking sun’s rays to slow global warming (Politico):
The White House offered measured support for the idea of studying how to block sunlight from hitting Earth’s surface as a way to limit global warming, in a congressionally mandated report that could help bring efforts once confined to science fiction into the realm of legitimate debate.

[...]

The White House report released late Friday indicates that the Biden administration is open to studying the possibility that altering sunlight might quickly cool the planet. But it added a degree of skepticism by noting that Congress has ordered the review, and the administration said it does not signal any new policy decisions related to a process that is sometimes referred to — or derided as — geoengineering.
White House Floats the Idea of Blocking Out the Sun (The New Republic):
Last week, the U.S. government tiptoed a little closer to the world of science fiction. In a 44-page report it seemed at pains to say was not its own idea, the White House laid out a five-year research plan to explore the development and eventual deployment of solar radiation management, or SRM, technology—the idea of blocking out the sun to slow down climate change.

Skeptics say SRM is dangerous and untested, and has a laundry list of potential impacts that, similarly, seem straight out of a disaster movie: worsened winters, disappearing monsoons, damage to the ozone layer, and droughts that could devastate already dry regions. In recent years, prominent climate scientists have organized to call for a total moratorium on researching and testing the technology. But others say its deployment is becoming virtually inevitable as the world’s biggest polluters—the United States among them—appear incapable of making the large-scale adjustments necessary to avoid the catastrophic impacts of climate change.

“The question becomes, what should we do, given that we’re not doing what we should be doing?” said Toby Svoboda, an environmental ethicist at Colgate University and the author of a book on the ethics of climate engineering. “Politically, this is pretty significant, that the Biden administration would signal their openness to this.”
posted by Pyry at 5:48 PM on July 7, 2023 [1 favorite]


In other Biden administration climate news:

White House cautiously opens the door to study blocking sun’s rays to slow global warming (Politico):


Excellent. I am really happy to see this. It's increasingly obvious that we're going to have to consider this, while we struggle to implement all the other massive social, economic, and technological changes that are necessary to fight climate change.

There are ways we could reduce insolation that would likely have few adverse side effects, and that could be easily stopped/reversed at any time if they did cause significant unforeseen problems.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 8:18 PM on July 7, 2023


It would be lovely if it was a huge solar power array that we could move in and out of eclipse position like a shutter. We could throttle back solar heating in tiny increments and crank out some terawatts at the same time.
posted by CynicalKnight at 9:17 PM on July 7, 2023


It can be way more low tech than that. Marine cloud brightening would be as simple as putting a thousand or so ships in the oceans that would spray seawater mist into the air.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 12:20 AM on July 8, 2023


We know what we need to do to stop climate change, and it's not geoengineering that will limit photosynthesis, reducing carbon uptake and our global food supply, and further destabilize our already fucked global atmospheric circulation patterns. We need to leave the fucking fossil fuels in the ground, not approve new leases in Alaska and the Gulf of Mexico. The administration that made the latter decisions should not be trusted by the rest of the planet with the former decision.
posted by hydropsyche at 3:29 AM on July 8, 2023 [5 favorites]


We can argue endlessly about what we should do, but that's not going to get us any closer to actually collectively deciding to instantly stop using fossil fuels.

A bit of marine cloud brightening is unlikely to have significant detrimental effects on photosynthesis. It would almost certainly have far fewer negative externalities than the geoengineering we've been engaged in for the last century and a half, i.e., anthropogenic global warming.

I think the binary framing of "EITHER we do geoengineering to counter global warming and make no changes to our fossil-fuel-based civilization, OR we don't do geoengineering and immediately ban all fossil fuels" is a false dichotomy. In fact, both of those scenarios are fantasies.

We are actually now moving rapidly into the energy transition we need to make. We just can't do it rapidly enough, for a combination of technological, economic, and political reasons, to counteract the warming that's already baked in.

So it seems clear to me that we're going to need both an energy transition that is accelerated as much as possible, pushing the limits of our technical and political envelopes, and some direct reduction of insolation.
posted by Artifice_Eternity at 1:34 PM on July 8, 2023 [1 favorite]



Out here the utility is limiting residential solar hookups in certain areas, saying there’s too many area homes already on solar and it’s too much uncertainty for the grid. Don’t get me wrong, I understand there are real concerns with controlling the grid with variable power output depending on usage, clouds, time of day etc. To which I say, “figure it the hell out.”


There's not much to figure out these days. But there are non-trivial amounts of money to spend.
posted by ocschwar at 8:27 PM on July 8, 2023 [2 favorites]


Well, it's a tiny step in sort of the right direction.

Now on to protest, march, vote, organize, petition, and fail fail fail in an attempt to take the next very tiny, insufficient, step in the right direction. There's no time to take a break or celebrate, not with this kind of thing counting as "success".
posted by sotonohito at 8:32 PM on July 8, 2023 [1 favorite]


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