Hard landing
May 19, 2024 12:30 PM Subscribe
Reports hitting the wires of a ‘hard landing’ of helicopter involving Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi and Foreign Minister Hossein Amir-Abdollahian
Didn't realize this seems way more like a "crash" than a "hard landing", and didn't realize they still haven't found the helicopter. Just what we need from Iran right now, a power vacuum and political infighting...
I hope to never fly in a helicopter.
posted by Windopaene at 12:35 PM on May 19 [4 favorites]
I hope to never fly in a helicopter.
posted by Windopaene at 12:35 PM on May 19 [4 favorites]
I hope to never fly in a helicopter.
At the very least don't fly in a helicopter in a thick fog near mountains unless you really want to be Black Mamba'd.
posted by srboisvert at 12:44 PM on May 19 [4 favorites]
At the very least don't fly in a helicopter in a thick fog near mountains unless you really want to be Black Mamba'd.
posted by srboisvert at 12:44 PM on May 19 [4 favorites]
I dunno. Khameini is still in control and there's a clear line of succession, so this doesn't seem particularly meaningful from a domestic nor international politics perspective.
posted by constraint at 12:45 PM on May 19 [12 favorites]
posted by constraint at 12:45 PM on May 19 [12 favorites]
What constraint said above. The regime of the Ayatollah Ali will still be in power.
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 12:48 PM on May 19
posted by Abehammerb Lincoln at 12:48 PM on May 19
It just goes to show, you can't be too careful!
posted by kickingtheground at 12:56 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
posted by kickingtheground at 12:56 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
Always a possibility this was simply a target of opportunity. Then again, it was also possibly Russian or Russian-derived hardware. And it could have just been the weather and the crew...
posted by jim in austin at 1:10 PM on May 19
posted by jim in austin at 1:10 PM on May 19
Reuters published a short explainer of what is supposed to happen if the President of Iran dies in office. Most notably, there is meant to be an election no later than 50 days after the president dies.
posted by Kattullus at 1:10 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
posted by Kattullus at 1:10 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
This isn't even the first notable government helicopter crash this year in my sphere of the world - there's Kenya, Malaysia (the one that happened here alerted me to the Kenyan one because Kenyan internet got very interested since what happened with them), Mauritania (iirc), and now this. One is an accident, two is a etc etc - what is up with the spate of heli crashes, is my question.
posted by cendawanita at 1:35 PM on May 19 [4 favorites]
posted by cendawanita at 1:35 PM on May 19 [4 favorites]
Then again, it was also possibly Russian or Russian-derived hardware.
Tsk tsk. Even a cursory look at the linked articles would have told you that it was a US-manufactured Bell 212 helicopter.
posted by hippybear at 1:36 PM on May 19 [7 favorites]
Tsk tsk. Even a cursory look at the linked articles would have told you that it was a US-manufactured Bell 212 helicopter.
posted by hippybear at 1:36 PM on May 19 [7 favorites]
this doesn't seem particularly meaningful from a domestic nor international politics perspective.
The BBC had a bit of analysis that the Foreign Minister has been a very busy guy so it could have some international ramifications, at least for Iran's diplomatic interests. That and Raisi had been considered a top contender for next Supreme Leader so on a longer term it going to someone else could end up being a big deal. They probably have lots of guys like him though, so maybe not. A snap election sounds like it could be a bit destabilizing.
posted by BungaDunga at 1:37 PM on May 19
The BBC had a bit of analysis that the Foreign Minister has been a very busy guy so it could have some international ramifications, at least for Iran's diplomatic interests. That and Raisi had been considered a top contender for next Supreme Leader so on a longer term it going to someone else could end up being a big deal. They probably have lots of guys like him though, so maybe not. A snap election sounds like it could be a bit destabilizing.
posted by BungaDunga at 1:37 PM on May 19
No one asked them but at least one mainstream/centrist Israeli journalist wants to take credit for this, I don't even know why*. /s
*For one thing this implies they know how to aim.
posted by cendawanita at 1:38 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
*For one thing this implies they know how to aim.
posted by cendawanita at 1:38 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
"Iranian state media have used the phrase "hard landing" to describe the reported crash of the Iranian President’s helicopter.
Hard landing is a phrase often used by authorities in Russia to describe incidents when aircraft crash."
posted by BungaDunga at 1:39 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
Hard landing is a phrase often used by authorities in Russia to describe incidents when aircraft crash."
posted by BungaDunga at 1:39 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
I don't think its necessary to resort to conspiracy theories at this point. a helicopter in fog in a mountainous region is a pretty dangerous place to be.
"hard landing" is a new one for me.
posted by supermedusa at 1:45 PM on May 19 [10 favorites]
"hard landing" is a new one for me.
posted by supermedusa at 1:45 PM on May 19 [10 favorites]
a helicopter in fog in a mountainous region is a pretty dangerous place to be.
It's what claimed Kobe Bryant.
posted by hippybear at 1:47 PM on May 19 [5 favorites]
It's what claimed Kobe Bryant.
posted by hippybear at 1:47 PM on May 19 [5 favorites]
Hard landing is a common term in aviation. It is a bit weird to use it when you don't know the state of the helicopter, but it's not a Russia-specific euphemism or anything.
posted by hoyland at 1:58 PM on May 19 [7 favorites]
posted by hoyland at 1:58 PM on May 19 [7 favorites]
Helicopters are useful, dangerous things. During the early days of the war in Iraq, my roommates BiL was a helicopter pilot deployed to the area, then pulled to train new pilots on flying in those conditions. Every time there was a helicopter crash, which was more than once a week, there’d be a tense period before his sister would call to say it wasn’t him. It was just one more tension in a sea of them.
posted by GenjiandProust at 2:20 PM on May 19 [4 favorites]
posted by GenjiandProust at 2:20 PM on May 19 [4 favorites]
A hard landing is when the pilot still had some control over the aircraft, but not enough to do a safe, soft landing, i.e a slow enough final descent. Such as an engine failure on a helicopter, but able to use autorotation to influence the descent. A hard landing severity can range from nearly a soft landing to unsurvivable. A crash is an uncontrolled impact, usually due to catastrophic problem midair. A controlled flight into terrain is when a pilot had control, but say flies into a mountain in heavy fog by accident.
We don't know which will be ultimately true, but none of them are hugely likely to have a good outcome for the people on board given the circumstances and location of the impact.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:25 PM on May 19 [25 favorites]
We don't know which will be ultimately true, but none of them are hugely likely to have a good outcome for the people on board given the circumstances and location of the impact.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 2:25 PM on May 19 [25 favorites]
Helicopters are useful, dangerous things.
A cousin manages a flightseeing operation that does a lot of logistics in a pretty remote place, and took me up a while back*. We took a small helicopter, a 4-seater with no cargo space, but he regretted that there weren't more people coming with us so that we could have used one of the big ones. And he commented that the maintenance to flight time on the big one is roughly 1:1, which I found to be fascinating.
*Which incidentally resulted in one of the best afternoons of my life.
posted by entropone at 3:17 PM on May 19 [8 favorites]
A cousin manages a flightseeing operation that does a lot of logistics in a pretty remote place, and took me up a while back*. We took a small helicopter, a 4-seater with no cargo space, but he regretted that there weren't more people coming with us so that we could have used one of the big ones. And he commented that the maintenance to flight time on the big one is roughly 1:1, which I found to be fascinating.
*Which incidentally resulted in one of the best afternoons of my life.
posted by entropone at 3:17 PM on May 19 [8 favorites]
Helicopters are useful, dangerous things
I had a client who'd been a US special forces pilot, having learned to fly in USMC. At the time he was 70 and told me all his flight class were dead, almost in chopper incidents, with about half being non-combat situations.
I know of a family where two pilots have died in seperate crashes. There was a crash here recently where a rain coat got sucked out of chopper and i to an intake, killing four.
Choppers are just really tricky machines. I've flown in one and don't intend to.
posted by unearthed at 3:50 PM on May 19 [2 favorites]
I had a client who'd been a US special forces pilot, having learned to fly in USMC. At the time he was 70 and told me all his flight class were dead, almost in chopper incidents, with about half being non-combat situations.
I know of a family where two pilots have died in seperate crashes. There was a crash here recently where a rain coat got sucked out of chopper and i to an intake, killing four.
Choppers are just really tricky machines. I've flown in one and don't intend to.
posted by unearthed at 3:50 PM on May 19 [2 favorites]
Heads of state are really, really bad at understanding that when they step onto an aircraft or a ship, they must obey the captain.
posted by ocschwar at 3:52 PM on May 19
posted by ocschwar at 3:52 PM on May 19
Tsk tsk. Even a cursory look at the linked articles would have told you that it was a US-manufactured Bell 212 helicopter.
This could even be worse, given the embargoes in force against Iran. As noted by others, helicopters need a lot of maintenance...
posted by jim in austin at 3:56 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
This could even be worse, given the embargoes in force against Iran. As noted by others, helicopters need a lot of maintenance...
posted by jim in austin at 3:56 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
This could even be worse, given the embargoes in force against Iran.
No. This was a bad weather event.
You're suggesting that Iran is flying around their president in an aircraft that has been deprecated from routine service because of sanctions.
Do you understand how insane that is if you look at it from an actual perspective of how decisions are made?
If you have an aircraft that is depreciated from routine service because of sanctions, you don't put your president on it. Period. That's just how governments at this level work. Well maybe not Russia because they aren't normal, but everyone else. The aircraft's safety is in doubt? The president doesn't go on it.
I appreciate you wanting this to be a hardware malfunction, although I do not for the life of me understand why this is important to you. But that is not what happened here. Bad weather and they flew into a mountain.
posted by hippybear at 4:24 PM on May 19 [6 favorites]
No. This was a bad weather event.
You're suggesting that Iran is flying around their president in an aircraft that has been deprecated from routine service because of sanctions.
Do you understand how insane that is if you look at it from an actual perspective of how decisions are made?
If you have an aircraft that is depreciated from routine service because of sanctions, you don't put your president on it. Period. That's just how governments at this level work. Well maybe not Russia because they aren't normal, but everyone else. The aircraft's safety is in doubt? The president doesn't go on it.
I appreciate you wanting this to be a hardware malfunction, although I do not for the life of me understand why this is important to you. But that is not what happened here. Bad weather and they flew into a mountain.
posted by hippybear at 4:24 PM on May 19 [6 favorites]
Trueanon Rule #3: NEVER GET IN A HELICOPTER
posted by youthenrage at 4:35 PM on May 19 [8 favorites]
posted by youthenrage at 4:35 PM on May 19 [8 favorites]
Regardless of the cause of what is quite likely an accident, we can all look forward to seeing how troll farms spin this for maximum FUD.
posted by CynicalKnight at 4:41 PM on May 19 [2 favorites]
posted by CynicalKnight at 4:41 PM on May 19 [2 favorites]
But that is not what happened here.
Friendly reminder: none of us know what happened here.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 5:39 PM on May 19 [21 favorites]
Friendly reminder: none of us know what happened here.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 5:39 PM on May 19 [21 favorites]
Iran’s Raisi joins long list of political leaders involved in mysterious helicopter crashes.
This is a really bad guy with many enemies within Iran as well as outside it.
I don’t think anything is off the table quite yet.
posted by jamjam at 5:44 PM on May 19 [2 favorites]
This is a really bad guy with many enemies within Iran as well as outside it.
I don’t think anything is off the table quite yet.
posted by jamjam at 5:44 PM on May 19 [2 favorites]
There's only two types of helicopters in this world, those that have crashed, and those that will crash.
posted by euphorb at 5:45 PM on May 19 [8 favorites]
posted by euphorb at 5:45 PM on May 19 [8 favorites]
One is an accident, two is a etc etc - what is up with the spate of heli crashes, is my question.
cendawanita: if it were anything other than helicopters, i'd be right there with you—as i said in the other thread, if it were anything other than a helo, i'd be betting heavily on this being an Israeli assassination. (As it is, i give it about a 30% chance, maybe a little less.) But helicopters are the most finicky and dangerous method of air travel. The air hates them, in a very real sense. They're the opposite of aerodynamic, and they crash a lot, even when well-maintained and being flown in good weather, neither of which seems to be the case here.
this doesn't seem particularly meaningful from a domestic nor international politics perspective
constraint: quite a bit depends on whether a) this really was an accident and b) Iran accepts that. If either of those things isn't true, well, things could heat up quite unpleasantly.
posted by adrienneleigh at 5:46 PM on May 19 [5 favorites]
cendawanita: if it were anything other than helicopters, i'd be right there with you—as i said in the other thread, if it were anything other than a helo, i'd be betting heavily on this being an Israeli assassination. (As it is, i give it about a 30% chance, maybe a little less.) But helicopters are the most finicky and dangerous method of air travel. The air hates them, in a very real sense. They're the opposite of aerodynamic, and they crash a lot, even when well-maintained and being flown in good weather, neither of which seems to be the case here.
this doesn't seem particularly meaningful from a domestic nor international politics perspective
constraint: quite a bit depends on whether a) this really was an accident and b) Iran accepts that. If either of those things isn't true, well, things could heat up quite unpleasantly.
posted by adrienneleigh at 5:46 PM on May 19 [5 favorites]
constraint: quite a bit depends on whether a) this really was an accident and b) Iran accepts that. If either of those things isn't true, well, things could heat up quite unpleasantly.That’s what worries me, especially since we are in a new world where it’s never been easier to fake evidence so well and there are multiple plausible candidates for an assassination.
posted by adamsc at 5:55 PM on May 19
If you have an aircraft that is depreciated from routine service because of sanctions, you don't put your president on it. Period. That's just how governments at this level work
It’s not that they gave him a shitty helicopter. It’s that if not for sanctions, they would have been flying the President in a state of the art machine, and instead, they had to fly him in the *best* 40 year old model. If so, we are still going to be blamed.
posted by corb at 6:00 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
It’s not that they gave him a shitty helicopter. It’s that if not for sanctions, they would have been flying the President in a state of the art machine, and instead, they had to fly him in the *best* 40 year old model. If so, we are still going to be blamed.
posted by corb at 6:00 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
Um... Or you just don't fly your president? I'm sure Iran has ground vehicles that could be used when there are hazardous weather conditions for flying.
I don't understand why people are so quick to think this is an equipment failure when it's clearly a weather issue. And to think they'd put the Iranian President in any vehicle that is less than fully top notch for service...
Is this borderline racism? Feels like y'all are saying "these people don't think things through as much as we do so they did something stupid".
posted by hippybear at 6:02 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
I don't understand why people are so quick to think this is an equipment failure when it's clearly a weather issue. And to think they'd put the Iranian President in any vehicle that is less than fully top notch for service...
Is this borderline racism? Feels like y'all are saying "these people don't think things through as much as we do so they did something stupid".
posted by hippybear at 6:02 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
This was a Bell 212 Helicopter sold to Irans Air Force during the Shah back in the 1970s. It was the classic Huey seen in every Vietnam war film. New ones haven’t been manufactured since the late 1990s but they are very common and used all around the world I suspect parts are easy to get. They have bought the Russian made MI-17 as a replacement. If there was any kind of maintenance or spare parts issue they would just stop flying VIP’s in the Bell 212’s.
posted by interogative mood at 6:10 PM on May 19 [5 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 6:10 PM on May 19 [5 favorites]
I don't understand why people are so quick to think this is an equipment failure when it's clearly a weather issue.
Friendly reminder: none of us know what happened here.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 6:13 PM on May 19 [17 favorites]
Friendly reminder: none of us know what happened here.
posted by not just everyday big moggies at 6:13 PM on May 19 [17 favorites]
If there was any kind of maintenance or spare parts issue they would just stop flying VIP’s in the Bell 212’s.
QFT
posted by hippybear at 6:13 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
QFT
posted by hippybear at 6:13 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
I appreciate you wanting this to be a hardware malfunction, although I do not for the life of me understand why this is important to you.
I don't particularly want it to be anything. I listed (and still see) three possibilities: an assassination (and not necessarily by Israel), a mechanical failure or poor decision making in bad weather. Given that Iran will be doing the investigation, I'm not holding my breath...
posted by jim in austin at 6:15 PM on May 19 [2 favorites]
I don't particularly want it to be anything. I listed (and still see) three possibilities: an assassination (and not necessarily by Israel), a mechanical failure or poor decision making in bad weather. Given that Iran will be doing the investigation, I'm not holding my breath...
posted by jim in austin at 6:15 PM on May 19 [2 favorites]
If it is an assassination, Israel is not the only candidate but they are far and away the most likely, for many reasons. (And one Israeli journalist is already taking credit, although it's almost certainly just braggadocio—there's no reason to believe he'd know anything solid even if it were an assassination). If, as is more likely, it was an accident of some sort, i hope that becomes clear very quickly. Just because Israel is horny for WWIII doesn't mean it's something the rest of us should want.
posted by adrienneleigh at 6:28 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
posted by adrienneleigh at 6:28 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
Iran, as a general rule, is quite good at maintaining aircraft they can't (officially) get parts for due to sanctions. Heck, they manage to get entire new planes now and then. Given that we're talking about a helicopter, Occam's razor would suggest weather and/or CFIT.
posted by hoyland at 6:38 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
posted by hoyland at 6:38 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
If it is an assassination, Israel is not the only candidate but they are far and away the most likely, for many reasons.
How about Iran? Perhaps one or both of these gentlemen were a pain in posterior to the Ayatollah and/or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard? Seems to work for Vlad and company. Just a thought...
posted by jim in austin at 6:40 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
How about Iran? Perhaps one or both of these gentlemen were a pain in posterior to the Ayatollah and/or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard? Seems to work for Vlad and company. Just a thought...
posted by jim in austin at 6:40 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
Turkish state media is reporting that a Turkish drone has detected the heat signature of the suspected crash site. Make of that what you will.
I can say that I have travelled by road from Armenia into Iran not far from that area and it is rough country- stony and mountainous.
posted by the duck by the oboe at 6:44 PM on May 19 [4 favorites]
I can say that I have travelled by road from Armenia into Iran not far from that area and it is rough country- stony and mountainous.
posted by the duck by the oboe at 6:44 PM on May 19 [4 favorites]
this doesn't seem particularly meaningful from a domestic nor international politics perspective
nine of ten international papers of record seem to disagree with you on that one to the extent that it is front page news or the televisual equivalent thereof lol
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 6:53 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
nine of ten international papers of record seem to disagree with you on that one to the extent that it is front page news or the televisual equivalent thereof lol
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 6:53 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
As they said on June 29th 1914, Austria-Hungary has an established line of succession and the Archduke Ferdinand was only the heir apparent, it isn’t like he was really running things. I’m sure this incident with some crazy Serbian nationalist will blow over. Heck given modern medical advances he’ll probably be alright after surgery.
posted by interogative mood at 7:04 PM on May 19 [5 favorites]
posted by interogative mood at 7:04 PM on May 19 [5 favorites]
The issue isn't "who done it?" Thor done it, we all know that.
The issue is "who will Iran say done it?"
This is why they've been taking so long to report things to their people. They want the full succession plan executed and ready to go first. And if they want to turn this into a war, the army has to prep.
posted by ocschwar at 7:11 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
The issue is "who will Iran say done it?"
This is why they've been taking so long to report things to their people. They want the full succession plan executed and ready to go first. And if they want to turn this into a war, the army has to prep.
posted by ocschwar at 7:11 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
How about Iran? Perhaps one or both of these gentlemen were a pain in posterior to the Ayatollah and/or the Islamic Revolutionary Guard? Seems to work for Vlad and company. Just a thought...
jim in austin: possible but unlikely. Raisi was being groomed as Khamenei's possible successor, and Amir-Abdollahian was closely tied to the IRGC. I suppose it *could* have been the regular army, but it really does seem unlikely.
posted by adrienneleigh at 7:11 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
jim in austin: possible but unlikely. Raisi was being groomed as Khamenei's possible successor, and Amir-Abdollahian was closely tied to the IRGC. I suppose it *could* have been the regular army, but it really does seem unlikely.
posted by adrienneleigh at 7:11 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
The other issue is "how will the Iranian people exploit it?"
This looks a lot like a tired regime that can't protect its president while at the same is working to drag its people into a world war that they simply do not want. If average Iranians come to believe they have to choose between a revolution and something more brutal than the Iran Iraq war, what happens?
posted by ocschwar at 7:14 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
This looks a lot like a tired regime that can't protect its president while at the same is working to drag its people into a world war that they simply do not want. If average Iranians come to believe they have to choose between a revolution and something more brutal than the Iran Iraq war, what happens?
posted by ocschwar at 7:14 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
I mean, i think the calculus on "do the Iranian people want war" would be different if Israel hadn't blatantly assassinated several Iranians in an embassy a month ago. They probably do want regime change, though, so it's hard to say how it'll shake out!
posted by adrienneleigh at 7:18 PM on May 19 [2 favorites]
posted by adrienneleigh at 7:18 PM on May 19 [2 favorites]
If average Iranians come to believe they have to choose between a revolution and something more brutal than the Iran Iraq war, what happens?
It is worth noting both that 1) Trump helped Iran prepare for nuclear war by unilaterally breaking the deal the United States had made with Iran, giving the country motivation to continue uranium refinement and weapons development; and, 2) Israel — a nuclear state — is ramping up its ever-warmer proxy war with Iran by way of attacks on neighboring countries. The ruling Israel government has found that regime change and war have distracted the public and helped keep its leaders in power and out of jail. Iran, with its own recent issues with increasing social and political dissent, may have come to the same conclusion.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 7:27 PM on May 19 [6 favorites]
It is worth noting both that 1) Trump helped Iran prepare for nuclear war by unilaterally breaking the deal the United States had made with Iran, giving the country motivation to continue uranium refinement and weapons development; and, 2) Israel — a nuclear state — is ramping up its ever-warmer proxy war with Iran by way of attacks on neighboring countries. The ruling Israel government has found that regime change and war have distracted the public and helped keep its leaders in power and out of jail. Iran, with its own recent issues with increasing social and political dissent, may have come to the same conclusion.
posted by They sucked his brains out! at 7:27 PM on May 19 [6 favorites]
I cannot accept that even Netanyahu would be stupid enough to attempt such a thing. The only country such a team could have operated from is Azerbaijan, and they are an essential Israeli ally that has relations with Iran, if frosty at times. If the Azeris learned that Israel staged such an assassination from their soil? It could be war, and not just with Iran.
Of course Iran isn't flying around senior government officials in junky helicopters. Parts and even entire machines can be purchased on the international market even from countries unfriendly to the USA. If he was in it, it was in absolutely pristine mechanical condition. They're not idiots.
posted by 1adam12 at 7:47 PM on May 19 [2 favorites]
Of course Iran isn't flying around senior government officials in junky helicopters. Parts and even entire machines can be purchased on the international market even from countries unfriendly to the USA. If he was in it, it was in absolutely pristine mechanical condition. They're not idiots.
posted by 1adam12 at 7:47 PM on May 19 [2 favorites]
Iran is Muslim but also celebrates the death of the Caliph Omar, the man who brought Islam to Iran. These are people who will not shy away from saying "yeah, fuck that guy" if he lived a life that merits saying it. So unsurprisingly, there's video of fireworks going off in Iran, and online the meme makers are going wild.
posted by ocschwar at 7:56 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
posted by ocschwar at 7:56 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
Turkish state media is reporting that a Turkish drone has detected the heat signature of the suspected crash site. Make of that what you will.
I used to ride in helicopters a lot. A pilot once told me about how, if the engine gave out, he’d have to try to auto-rotate down and then try to ascend just before impact. Then he said something like, of course even if I manage all that, it’ll probably flare when it hits the ground.
posted by house-goblin at 8:05 PM on May 19 [2 favorites]
I used to ride in helicopters a lot. A pilot once told me about how, if the engine gave out, he’d have to try to auto-rotate down and then try to ascend just before impact. Then he said something like, of course even if I manage all that, it’ll probably flare when it hits the ground.
posted by house-goblin at 8:05 PM on May 19 [2 favorites]
Posted on wapo.com: "There are no signs of life at the crash site, Iran’s state-run Press TV reported Monday morning local time."
posted by wenestvedt at 8:19 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
posted by wenestvedt at 8:19 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
I used to ride in helicopters a lot. A pilot once told me about how, if the engine gave out, he’d have to try to auto-rotate down and then try to ascend just before impact. Then he said something like, of course even if I manage all that, it’ll probably flare when it hits the ground.
I've seen a Youtube video of this happening. Engine gives out. Pilot somehow steers the falling brick towards a beach while autorotating, then directs the blades to use their momentum for an ascent just before the chopper hits the sand.
This was on a bright day in Hawaii, with the cliffs giving a good visual cue to start the "ascent", and then it hit sand. Everyone walked away. The chopper was totaled.
Same thing in that fog we've seen? No way anyone survives.
posted by ocschwar at 8:41 PM on May 19 [4 favorites]
Iran's President Raisi Snubbed On Delegation To Pakistan
Tuesday, 04/23/2024
Cost of doing business with Iran? US warns Pakistan of sanctions risk.
Iran's Economy Under Raisi Can Only Produce Corruption, Say Observers
Monday, 04/29/2024
posted by clavdivs at 9:33 PM on May 19
Tuesday, 04/23/2024
Cost of doing business with Iran? US warns Pakistan of sanctions risk.
Iran's Economy Under Raisi Can Only Produce Corruption, Say Observers
Monday, 04/29/2024
posted by clavdivs at 9:33 PM on May 19
Mod note: One deleted. Don't attack fellow members; don't try to dictate how others can participate. If you honestly believe someone's participation is out of bounds, contact admin. Do not derail a thread to snipe at other people.
posted by taz (staff) at 9:36 PM on May 19 [18 favorites]
posted by taz (staff) at 9:36 PM on May 19 [18 favorites]
Let's wait for the official word, umkay?.. Patience is a virtue as Mawmae used to tell me.
posted by Czjewel at 9:57 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
posted by Czjewel at 9:57 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
AP: Iran’s president, foreign minister and others found dead at helicopter crash site, state media says
Iranian President Ebrahim Raisi, the country’s foreign minister and others have been found dead at the site of a helicopter crash Monday after an hourslong search through a foggy, mountainous region of the country’s northwest, state media reported. Raisi was 63.posted by Rhaomi at 10:04 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
Huh, I was doing my daily-ish "attempt to read the newspaper in Japanese" when I saw this story on the Asahi Shinbun site. Figured, oh I'm probably just reading this all wrong. Nope.
posted by ctmf at 10:11 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
posted by ctmf at 10:11 PM on May 19 [3 favorites]
nine of ten international papers of record seem to disagree with you on that one to the extent that it is front page news or the televisual equivalent thereof lol
It's super dramatic but it seems like Iran has a dozen guys with basically the same skills and policy preferences who can be slotted in to replace him. Things will get weird in Iran when the Supreme Leader dies, that's the dicey succession that really matters.
posted by BungaDunga at 10:33 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
It's super dramatic but it seems like Iran has a dozen guys with basically the same skills and policy preferences who can be slotted in to replace him. Things will get weird in Iran when the Supreme Leader dies, that's the dicey succession that really matters.
posted by BungaDunga at 10:33 PM on May 19 [1 favorite]
According to the NYT "many analysts believed Mr. Raisi was being groomed to become Iran’s next supreme leader"
posted by gwint at 10:49 PM on May 19
posted by gwint at 10:49 PM on May 19
Iran’s political system is complicated. It is also robust enough that this is unlikely to topple it. The President of Iran isn’t a figurehead or powerless puppet of a dictatorial Supreme Leader. The Parliament isn’t a rubber stamp. It is complicated. The system tends to move and decide by consensus, rather than a top down dictate.
The issue here isn’t that these men were irreplaceable. It is that they were very powerful in ways the their successor likely won’t be. One was the architect of much of Irans foreign policy over the last decade and the other was the Supreme Leader in waiting. Their replacements will likely be weakened and have less room to make deals and push for compromise. The other issue is how Iran decides to play this. Do they claim assassination or accident.
posted by interogative mood at 8:39 AM on May 20 [2 favorites]
The issue here isn’t that these men were irreplaceable. It is that they were very powerful in ways the their successor likely won’t be. One was the architect of much of Irans foreign policy over the last decade and the other was the Supreme Leader in waiting. Their replacements will likely be weakened and have less room to make deals and push for compromise. The other issue is how Iran decides to play this. Do they claim assassination or accident.
posted by interogative mood at 8:39 AM on May 20 [2 favorites]
Official state media is saying "technical failure"
posted by gwint at 9:01 AM on May 20 [3 favorites]
posted by gwint at 9:01 AM on May 20 [3 favorites]
Well, that's a relief. I really wasn't looking forward to WWIII.
posted by adrienneleigh at 9:19 AM on May 20
posted by adrienneleigh at 9:19 AM on May 20
It depends on the cause of the technical failure. Did Israeli, NATO, or Mojtaba Khamenei's agents cause the technical failure or was it just the sanctions. Blame will have to be assigned and it is unlikely to be just attributed to a freak accident. I doubt we'll see WW3, but I expect Iran and factions in Iran will attempt to make the most of this incident to get whatever they can out of it. If that results in a decision to blame Israel, then it is possible that could lead to war. Remember before WW1 actually started and after the assassination of the Archduke there was a whole period where the Austro-Hungarians attempted to extract a bunch of concessions from Serbia. It was the breakdown of those discussions that lead to WW1. Russia and Germany let their allies overplay their hands, instead of forcing some kind of compromise. Worse Russia and Germany gave their allies unlimited guarantees so that they found themselves dragged into the war they didn't want and of course Britain and France let themselves get dragged along with it. After the assassination this scenario was seen as remote and unlikely because surely cooler heads would prevail an no one really wanted war. Yet by the end of July -- a month later -- all of Europe was at war.
So even though I think the chances of this turning into ww3 are smart, I am concerned.
posted by interogative mood at 11:04 AM on May 20 [1 favorite]
So even though I think the chances of this turning into ww3 are smart, I am concerned.
posted by interogative mood at 11:04 AM on May 20 [1 favorite]
Same thing in that fog we've seen? No way anyone survives.
Well, I was thinking the “heat signature” likely meant the helicopter “flared” on impact. I still don’t know enough to say it had to be the fog. Hard landing in the mountains on a clear day could have the same result.
Honestly, all the pics I’ve seen look a lot like fairly typical West Coast mornings I experienced waiting on some mucky landing for the heli to fly down out of the fog, or down through the low ceiling, or both, and then fly me up the side of a mountain, maybe through some kind of gorge or valley side first, land for two three minutes on a wood platform built on the slope, and drop me off to work.
Like, one time the fog was so thick the pilot landed on a logging road, removed the door, lifted off again and flew up the side of the mountain, just above the treetops, following the road, and flying sideways because with the door gone he could see better.
Anyway, not saying fog wasn’t the cause, or a significant factor in the crash, but it still may have been something else entirely.
posted by house-goblin at 11:16 AM on May 20
Well, I was thinking the “heat signature” likely meant the helicopter “flared” on impact. I still don’t know enough to say it had to be the fog. Hard landing in the mountains on a clear day could have the same result.
Honestly, all the pics I’ve seen look a lot like fairly typical West Coast mornings I experienced waiting on some mucky landing for the heli to fly down out of the fog, or down through the low ceiling, or both, and then fly me up the side of a mountain, maybe through some kind of gorge or valley side first, land for two three minutes on a wood platform built on the slope, and drop me off to work.
Like, one time the fog was so thick the pilot landed on a logging road, removed the door, lifted off again and flew up the side of the mountain, just above the treetops, following the road, and flying sideways because with the door gone he could see better.
Anyway, not saying fog wasn’t the cause, or a significant factor in the crash, but it still may have been something else entirely.
posted by house-goblin at 11:16 AM on May 20
"Ten thousand metal parts spinning around an oil leak, looking for a place to crash"
posted by gottabefunky at 11:34 AM on May 20 [11 favorites]
posted by gottabefunky at 11:34 AM on May 20 [11 favorites]
"Ten thousand metal parts spinning around an oil leak, looking for a place to crash"
Ha! Yeah, I heard something similar to that, except there was something about half of those spinning parts being shear pins ready to snap.
posted by house-goblin at 12:07 PM on May 20 [2 favorites]
Ha! Yeah, I heard something similar to that, except there was something about half of those spinning parts being shear pins ready to snap.
posted by house-goblin at 12:07 PM on May 20 [2 favorites]
Jesus nut
or main rotor retention hub
If the Jesus nut were to fail in flight, the rotor would detach from the helicopter and the only thing left for the crew to do would be to "pray to Jesus."
posted by yyz at 12:54 PM on May 20 [1 favorite]
or main rotor retention hub
If the Jesus nut were to fail in flight, the rotor would detach from the helicopter and the only thing left for the crew to do would be to "pray to Jesus."
posted by yyz at 12:54 PM on May 20 [1 favorite]
little safety record on the Bell 212
seems the area was very foggy and with the technical failure, perhaps something in the mechanicals that wouldn't allow it to lift out of fog.
precursory look at the site it seems two or three to four of these crash a year on the average.
posted by clavdivs at 1:16 PM on May 20
seems the area was very foggy and with the technical failure, perhaps something in the mechanicals that wouldn't allow it to lift out of fog.
precursory look at the site it seems two or three to four of these crash a year on the average.
posted by clavdivs at 1:16 PM on May 20
looking for a place to crash
Literally - I watched a video series of a guy taking helicopter lessons. There was an awful lot of pre-emptive "if there's a problem, I'll go there" every time he started to get a bit far from the previously-identified spot.
I've ridden in military helicopters (ship to ship, which not being able to look out the front window, always looks like you're landing in the middle of the water). It's kind of amazing how NOT like an airplane it feels. The helicopter vibrates, makes an "I'm probably falling apart right now" racket, and basically always feels like it's fighting its damnedest just to stay in the air.
posted by ctmf at 2:03 PM on May 20 [4 favorites]
Literally - I watched a video series of a guy taking helicopter lessons. There was an awful lot of pre-emptive "if there's a problem, I'll go there" every time he started to get a bit far from the previously-identified spot.
I've ridden in military helicopters (ship to ship, which not being able to look out the front window, always looks like you're landing in the middle of the water). It's kind of amazing how NOT like an airplane it feels. The helicopter vibrates, makes an "I'm probably falling apart right now" racket, and basically always feels like it's fighting its damnedest just to stay in the air.
posted by ctmf at 2:03 PM on May 20 [4 favorites]
Based on reports on Iranian media yesterday of a hard landing and that there was some hope of survivors because of communications with someone on board I think we can assume a failure that resulted in a mayday call and indication they would be using autorotation to set downs. This is where you use the spin of the rotors from the air flow over them to glide down. The result is a hard landing if you are lucky. Given the zero visibility conditions seen in drone footage and other videos I suspect that they probably hit the trees as they tried to set down and that lead to catastrophic damage to the vehicle and the fire.
posted by interogative mood at 4:01 PM on May 20 [1 favorite]
posted by interogative mood at 4:01 PM on May 20 [1 favorite]
Based on reports on Iranian media yesterday of a hard landing and that there was some hope of survivors because of communications
I took this to mean "someone's phone is still connected to the network" rather than the person it belonged to was still alive. Considering the iPhone which fell out of that Boing with the missing door plug survived, I wouldn't be too surprised if a Samsung or Huwei phone would also survive this.
posted by pwnguin at 4:35 PM on May 20
I took this to mean "someone's phone is still connected to the network" rather than the person it belonged to was still alive. Considering the iPhone which fell out of that Boing with the missing door plug survived, I wouldn't be too surprised if a Samsung or Huwei phone would also survive this.
posted by pwnguin at 4:35 PM on May 20
From reading this thread you'd think helicopters are machines that are constantly falling to bits in the sky. The reality is that helicopters are dangerous mostly because they are very hard to fly and there is very little margin for error. Most helicopter crashes, by far, are due to human factors, not mechanical failures.
posted by ssg at 6:13 PM on May 20 [1 favorite]
posted by ssg at 6:13 PM on May 20 [1 favorite]
Ryan McBeth has posted a video on the various conspiracy theories about the crash floating around social media.
posted by interogative mood at 6:41 PM on May 20
posted by interogative mood at 6:41 PM on May 20
"then try to ascend just before impact."
I think there may be some confusion here. The accent just before impact is known as a flare.
posted by Tenuki at 7:15 PM on May 20
I think there may be some confusion here. The accent just before impact is known as a flare.
posted by Tenuki at 7:15 PM on May 20
ssg: i agree, although i don't think there's entirely a bright line between "they fall apart" and "they are very hard to fly and there is very little margin for error". The reason they're hard to fly is that they are not very aerodynamic and everything has to be in pretty good shape in order for them to fly at all!
posted by adrienneleigh at 7:17 PM on May 20 [1 favorite]
posted by adrienneleigh at 7:17 PM on May 20 [1 favorite]
Old joke; helicopters can only fly because they're so loud, the ground doesn't want to be near them.
Helicopters do require a LOT of maintenance compared to planes (which also require like, a fair chunk) because they're significantly more complex, with more moving parts, have a lot more vibration to deal with, and just generally have to mechanically work harder just to stay airborne given they are basically an angry brick, aerodynamically. Flying one is also hard, because again; complex controls, needs constant attention, usually flying closer to things you can collide with than a passenger jet, and turns into an angry brick if you mess up. So if either engineer OR pilot make a small mistake, you're probably going to have a bad day.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 6:43 AM on May 21 [2 favorites]
Helicopters do require a LOT of maintenance compared to planes (which also require like, a fair chunk) because they're significantly more complex, with more moving parts, have a lot more vibration to deal with, and just generally have to mechanically work harder just to stay airborne given they are basically an angry brick, aerodynamically. Flying one is also hard, because again; complex controls, needs constant attention, usually flying closer to things you can collide with than a passenger jet, and turns into an angry brick if you mess up. So if either engineer OR pilot make a small mistake, you're probably going to have a bad day.
posted by Absolutely No You-Know-What at 6:43 AM on May 21 [2 favorites]
What Raisi’s Death Means for the Future of Iran by Robin Wright for the New Yorker [archive]. Excerpt:
posted by Kattullus at 4:57 AM on May 25 [3 favorites]
Raisi’s demise also comes at a time when the regime is down to a small core. Like other revolutions, Iran’s has eaten its own. Past Presidents of widely diverse views—including Hassan Rouhani, Mahmoud Ahmadinejad, Mohammad Khatami, and Hashemi Rafsanjani—have been viciously sidelined, officially silenced, denied foreign travel, or prevented from running for office again. The first President, Abolhassan Bani-Sadr, shaved his trademark mustache and secretly fled the country wearing a skirt. Vice-Presidents have been imprisoned. A former Prime Minister and a speaker of parliament have been under house arrest since 2011. The list of acceptable political candidates—who are tightly vetted by a twelve-man Guardian Council of Islamic clerics and jurists—is tiny. “Raisi was not a beloved or charismatic figure,” Vakil told me. He was best known among Iranians as a ruthless justice minister and earlier for his role on a “death commission” that dispatched some five thousand dissidents to the hangman over a matter of weeks in 1988. “He was a loyal apparatchik,” Vakil added. But “the circle of obvious functionary leaders continues to shrink, and it will be hard to find one person to tick the Presidential, ideological, and succession boxes that Raisi seemed to fit.”It’s worth reading the whole article, lots of interesting facts and analysis.
Iran’s policies—both foreign and domestic—are unlikely to budge even a bit. But the nation is deeply shaken about the future. For the regime’s supporters and dissidents alike, Raisi’s death has spawned an existential question: Who will lead Iran, especially with the looming death of Ayatollah Khamenei? The Supreme Leader, who has been the ultimate power in the Islamic Republic since 1989, turns eighty-six in July; he has suffered from prostate cancer. Raisi, who was a Khamenei acolyte from Mashhad, the holiest city in Iran and a pilgrimage site visited by millions of Shiites every year, was widely expected to oversee the transition. (He was due to run for reëlection next year and, if successful, would have held power until 2029.) Raisi had even been floated as a potential successor to Khamenei. “Raisi’s death disrupts the plans the hard right has had all along to consolidate power,” Nasr said. Vaez noted, “His death introduces a major element of uncertainty” and “heightens the already significant stakes for his successor.”
The succession race is now “wide open,” Nasr added. The other name that has long been floated is Mojtaba Khamenei, the Supreme Leader’s fifty-five-year-old son and closest adviser. But choosing him would create a clerical dynasty, and the revolution was all about ending one family’s control of all levers of power. A big question is who else can emerge as a viable candidate for President—a new election has been set for June 28th—who also has the credentials to be a potential successor to the Supreme Leader. Khamenei himself was President when he was elevated to the role of Supreme Leader after the death of Ruhollah Khomeini, who led the revolution. There have been no other transitions. “All viable candidates with name recognition, capable of winning without controversy, are from the more middle-of-the-road conservative camp or moderates of the Rouhani type,” Nasr told me. Insisting on a hard-right candidate who “no one believes is credible” is risky, he said. The regime needs turnout now more than ever to prove that the Islamic Republic can endure. If Tehran rehabilitates more moderate candidates, Vakil said, “it will point to the importance of building stronger domestic consensus at the élite and popular level.” The transition is already likely to be chaotic behind the scenes.
posted by Kattullus at 4:57 AM on May 25 [3 favorites]
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posted by hippybear at 12:35 PM on May 19